004 Datenverarbeitung; Informatik
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Optimal investment decisions by institutional investors require accurate predictions with respect to the development of stock markets. Motivated by previous research that revealed the unsatisfactory performance of existing stock market prediction models, this study proposes a novel prediction approach. Our proposed system combines Artificial Intelligence (AI) with data from Virtual Investment Communities (VICs) and leverages VICs’ ability to support the process of predicting stock markets. An empirical study with two different models using real data shows the potential of the AI-based system with VICs information as an instrument for stock market predictions. VICs can be a valuable addition but our results indicate that this type of data is only helpful in certain market phases.
This article discusses the counterpart of interactive machine learning, i.e., human learning while being in the loop in a human-machine collaboration. For such cases we propose the use of a Contradiction Matrix to assess the overlap and the contradictions of human and machine predictions. We show in a small-scaled user study with experts in the area of pneumology (1) that machine-learning based systems can classify X-rays with respect to diseases with a meaningful accuracy, (2) humans partly use contradictions to reconsider their initial diagnosis, and (3) that this leads to a higher overlap between human and machine diagnoses at the end of the collaboration situation. We argue that disclosure of information on diagnosis uncertainty can be beneficial to make the human expert reconsider her or his initial assessment which may ultimately result in a deliberate agreement. In the light of the observations from our project, it becomes apparent that collaborative learning in such a human-in-the-loop scenario could lead to mutual benefits for both human learning and interactive machine learning. Bearing the differences in reasoning and learning processes of humans and intelligent systems in mind, we argue that interdisciplinary research teams have the best chances at tackling this undertaking and generating valuable insights.
Monitoring is an indispensable tool for the operation of any large installation of grid or cluster computing, be it high energy physics or elsewhere. Usually, monitoring is configured to collect a small amount of data, just enough to enable detection of abnormal conditions. Once detected, the abnormal condition is handled by gathering all information from the affected components. This data is processed by querying it in a manner similar to a database.
This contribution shows how the metaphor of a debugger (for software applications) can be transferred to a compute cluster. The concepts of variables, assertions and breakpoints that are used in debugging can be applied to monitoring by defining variables as the quantities recorded by monitoring and breakpoints as invariants formulated via these variables. It is found that embedding fragments of a data extracting and reporting tool such as the UNIX tool awk facilitates concise notations for commonly used variables since tools like awk are designed to process large event streams (in textual representations) with bounded memory. A functional notation similar to both the pipe notation used in the UNIX shell and the point-free style used in functional programming simplify the combination of variables that commonly occur when formulating breakpoints.
We introduce tree-width for first order formulae φ, fotw(φ). We show that computing fotw is fixed-parameter tractable with parameter fotw. Moreover, we show that on classes of formulae of bounded fotw, model checking is fixed parameter tractable, with parameter the length of the formula. This is done by translating a formula φ with fotw(φ)<k into a formula of the k-variable fragment Lk of first order logic. For fixed k, the question whether a given first order formula is equivalent to an Lk formula is undecidable. In contrast, the classes of first order formulae with bounded fotw are fragments of first order logic for which the equivalence is decidable. Our notion of tree-width generalises tree-width of conjunctive queries to arbitrary formulae of first order logic by taking into account the quantifier interaction in a formula. Moreover, it is more powerful than the notion of elimination-width of quantified constraint formulae, defined by Chen and Dalmau (CSL 2005): for quantified constraint formulae, both bounded elimination-width and bounded fotw allow for model checking in polynomial time. We prove that fotw of a quantified constraint formula φ is bounded by the elimination-width of φ, and we exhibit a class of quantified constraint formulae with bounded fotw, that has unbounded elimination-width. A similar comparison holds for strict tree-width of non-recursive stratified datalog as defined by Flum, Frick, and Grohe (JACM 49, 2002). Finally, we show that fotw has a characterization in terms of a cops and robbers game without monotonicity cost.
In the upcoming years, the internet of things (IoT)will enrich daily life. The combination of artificial intelligence(AI) and highly interoperable systems will bring context-sensitive multi-domain services to reality. This paper describesa concept for an AI-based smart living platform with open-HAB, a smart home middleware, and Web of Things (WoT) askey components of our approach. The platform concept con-siders different stakeholders, i.e. the housing industry, serviceproviders, and tenants. These activities are part of the Fore-Sight project, an AI-driven, context-sensitive smart living plat-form.
We present a massively parallel framework for computing tropicalizations of algebraic varieties which can make use of symmetries using the workflow management system GPI-Space and the computer algebra system Singular. We determine the tropical Grassmannian TGr0(3,8). Our implementation works efficiently on up to 840 cores, computing the 14763 orbits of maximal cones under the canonical S8-action in about 20 minutes. Relying on our result, we show that the Gröbner structure of TGr0(3,8) refines the 16-dimensional skeleton of the coarsest fan structure of the Dressian Dr(3,8), except for 23 orbits of special cones, for which we construct explicit obstructions to the realizability of their tropical linear spaces. Moreover, we propose algorithms for identifying maximal-dimensional cones which belong to positive tropicalizations of algebraic varieties. We compute the positive Grassmannian TGr+(3,8) and compare it to the cluster complex of the classical Grassmannian Gr(3,8).
Background: Most smokers start smoking during their early adolescence, often with the idea that smoking is glamorous. Interventions that harness the broad availability of mobile phones as well as adolescents' interest in their appearance may be a novel way to improve school-based prevention. A recent study conducted in Germany showed promising results. However, the transfer to other cultural contexts, effects on different genders, and implementability remains unknown.
Objective: In this observational study, we aimed to test the perception and implementability of facial-aging apps to prevent smoking in secondary schools in Brazil in accordance with the theory of planned behavior and with respect to different genders.
Methods: We used a free facial-aging mobile phone app ("Smokerface") in three Brazilian secondary schools via a novel method called mirroring. The students’ altered three-dimensional selfies on mobile phones or tablets and images were "mirrored" via a projector in front of their whole grade. Using an anonymous questionnaire, we then measured on a 5-point Likert scale the perceptions of the intervention among 306 Brazilian secondary school students of both genders in the seventh grade (average age 12.97 years). A second questionnaire captured perceptions of medical students who conducted the intervention and its conduction per protocol.
Results: The majority of students perceived the intervention as fun (304/306, 99.3%), claimed the intervention motivated them not to smoke (289/306, 94.4%), and stated that they learned new benefits of not smoking (300/306, 98.0%). Only a minority of students disagreed or fully disagreed that they learned new benefits of nonsmoking (4/306, 1.3%) or that they themselves were motivated not to smoke (5/306, 1.6%). All of the protocol was delivered by volunteer medical students.
Conclusions: Our data indicate the potential for facial-aging interventions to reduce smoking prevalence in Brazilian secondary schools in accordance with the theory of planned behavior. Volunteer medical students enjoyed the intervention and are capable of complete implementation per protocol.
Our purpose was to analyze the robustness and reproducibility of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) radiomic features. We constructed a multi-object fruit phantom to perform MRI acquisition as scan-rescan using a 3 Tesla MRI scanner. We applied T2-weighted (T2w) half-Fourier acquisition single-shot turbo spin-echo (HASTE), T2w turbo spin-echo (TSE), T2w fluid-attenuated inversion recovery (FLAIR), T2 map and T1-weighted (T1w) TSE. Images were resampled to isotropic voxels. Fruits were segmented. The workflow was repeated by a second reader and the first reader after a pause of one month. We applied PyRadiomics to extract 107 radiomic features per fruit and sequence from seven feature classes. We calculated concordance correlation coefficients (CCC) and dynamic range (DR) to obtain measurements of feature robustness. Intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) was calculated to assess intra- and inter-observer reproducibility. We calculated Gini scores to test the pairwise discriminative power specific for the features and MRI sequences. We depict Bland Altmann plots of features with top discriminative power (Mann–Whitney U test). Shape features were the most robust feature class. T2 map was the most robust imaging technique (robust features (rf), n = 84). HASTE sequence led to the least amount of rf (n = 20). Intra-observer ICC was excellent (≥ 0.75) for nearly all features (max–min; 99.1–97.2%). Deterioration of ICC values was seen in the inter-observer analyses (max–min; 88.7–81.1%). Complete robustness across all sequences was found for 8 features. Shape features and T2 map yielded the highest pairwise discriminative performance. Radiomics validity depends on the MRI sequence and feature class. T2 map seems to be the most promising imaging technique with the highest feature robustness, high intra-/inter-observer reproducibility and most promising discriminative power.
Digital distractions can interfere with goal attainment and lead to undesirable habits that are hard to get red rid of. Various digital self-control interventions promise support to alleviate the negative impact of digital distractions. These interventions use different approaches, such as the blocking of apps and websites, goal setting, or visualizations of device usage statistics. While many apps and browser extensions make use of these features, little is known about their effectiveness. This systematic review synthesizes the current research to provide insights into the effectiveness of the different kinds of interventions. From a search of the ‘ACM’, ‘Springer Link’, ‘Web of Science’, ’IEEE Xplore’ and ‘Pubmed’ databases, we identified 28 digital self-control interventions. We categorized these interventions according to their features and their outcomes. The interventions showed varying degrees of effectiveness, and especially interventions that relied purely on increasing the participants' awareness were barely effective. For those interventions that sanctioned the use of distractions, the current literature indicates that the sanctions have to be sufficiently difficult to overcome, as they will otherwise be quickly dismissed. The overall confidence in the results is low, with small sample sizes, short study duration, and unclear study contexts. From these insights, we highlight research gaps and close with suggestions for future research.