004 Datenverarbeitung; Informatik
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Optimal investment decisions by institutional investors require accurate predictions with respect to the development of stock markets. Motivated by previous research that revealed the unsatisfactory performance of existing stock market prediction models, this study proposes a novel prediction approach. Our proposed system combines Artificial Intelligence (AI) with data from Virtual Investment Communities (VICs) and leverages VICs’ ability to support the process of predicting stock markets. An empirical study with two different models using real data shows the potential of the AI-based system with VICs information as an instrument for stock market predictions. VICs can be a valuable addition but our results indicate that this type of data is only helpful in certain market phases.
This article discusses the counterpart of interactive machine learning, i.e., human learning while being in the loop in a human-machine collaboration. For such cases we propose the use of a Contradiction Matrix to assess the overlap and the contradictions of human and machine predictions. We show in a small-scaled user study with experts in the area of pneumology (1) that machine-learning based systems can classify X-rays with respect to diseases with a meaningful accuracy, (2) humans partly use contradictions to reconsider their initial diagnosis, and (3) that this leads to a higher overlap between human and machine diagnoses at the end of the collaboration situation. We argue that disclosure of information on diagnosis uncertainty can be beneficial to make the human expert reconsider her or his initial assessment which may ultimately result in a deliberate agreement. In the light of the observations from our project, it becomes apparent that collaborative learning in such a human-in-the-loop scenario could lead to mutual benefits for both human learning and interactive machine learning. Bearing the differences in reasoning and learning processes of humans and intelligent systems in mind, we argue that interdisciplinary research teams have the best chances at tackling this undertaking and generating valuable insights.
Monitoring is an indispensable tool for the operation of any large installation of grid or cluster computing, be it high energy physics or elsewhere. Usually, monitoring is configured to collect a small amount of data, just enough to enable detection of abnormal conditions. Once detected, the abnormal condition is handled by gathering all information from the affected components. This data is processed by querying it in a manner similar to a database.
This contribution shows how the metaphor of a debugger (for software applications) can be transferred to a compute cluster. The concepts of variables, assertions and breakpoints that are used in debugging can be applied to monitoring by defining variables as the quantities recorded by monitoring and breakpoints as invariants formulated via these variables. It is found that embedding fragments of a data extracting and reporting tool such as the UNIX tool awk facilitates concise notations for commonly used variables since tools like awk are designed to process large event streams (in textual representations) with bounded memory. A functional notation similar to both the pipe notation used in the UNIX shell and the point-free style used in functional programming simplify the combination of variables that commonly occur when formulating breakpoints.
In the upcoming years, the internet of things (IoT)will enrich daily life. The combination of artificial intelligence(AI) and highly interoperable systems will bring context-sensitive multi-domain services to reality. This paper describesa concept for an AI-based smart living platform with open-HAB, a smart home middleware, and Web of Things (WoT) askey components of our approach. The platform concept con-siders different stakeholders, i.e. the housing industry, serviceproviders, and tenants. These activities are part of the Fore-Sight project, an AI-driven, context-sensitive smart living plat-form.
Learning to solve graph tasks is one of the key prerequisites of acquiring domain-specific knowledge in most study domains. Analyses of graph understanding often use eye-tracking and focus on analyzing how much time students spend gazing at particular areas of a graph—Areas of Interest (AOIs). To gain a deeper insight into students’ task-solving process, we argue that the gaze shifts between students’ fixations on different AOIs (so-termed transitions) also need to be included in holistic analyses of graph understanding that consider the importance of transitions for the task-solving process. Thus, we introduced Epistemic Network Analysis (ENA) as a novel approach to analyze eye-tracking data of 23 university students who solved eight multiple-choice graph tasks in physics and economics. ENA is a method for quantifying, visualizing, and interpreting network data allowing a weighted analysis of the gaze patterns of both correct and incorrect graph task solvers considering the interrelations between fixations and transitions. After an analysis of the differences in the number of fixations and the number of single transitions between correct and incorrect solvers, we conducted an ENA for each task. We demonstrate that an isolated analysis of fixations and transitions provides only a limited insight into graph solving behavior. In contrast, ENA identifies differences between the gaze patterns of students who solved the graph tasks correctly and incorrectly across the multiple graph tasks. For instance, incorrect solvers shifted their gaze from the graph to the x-axis and from the question to the graph comparatively more often than correct solvers. The results indicate that incorrect solvers often have problems transferring textual information into graphical information and rely more on partly irrelevant parts of a graph. Finally, we discuss how the findings can be used to design experimental studies and for innovative instructional procedures in higher education
In this proceeding, we review our recent work using deep convolutional neural network (CNN) to identify the nature of the QCD transition in a hybrid modeling of heavy-ion collisions. Within this hybrid model, a viscous hydrodynamic model is coupled with a hadronic cascade “after-burner”. As a binary classification setup, we employ two different types of equations of state (EoS) of the hot medium in the hydrodynamic evolution. The resulting final-state pion spectra in the transverse momentum and azimuthal angle plane are fed to the neural network as the input data in order to distinguish different EoS. To probe the effects of the fluctuations in the event-by-event spectra, we explore different scenarios for the input data and make a comparison in a systematic way. We observe a clear hierarchy in the predictive power when the network is fed with the event-by-event, cascade-coarse-grained and event-fine-averaged spectra. The carefully-trained neural network can extract high-level features from pion spectra to identify the nature of the QCD transition in a realistic simulation scenario.
Active efficient coding explains the development of binocular vision and its failure in amblyopia
(2020)
The development of vision during the first months of life is an active process that comprises the learning of appropriate neural representations and the learning of accurate eye movements. While it has long been suspected that the two learning processes are coupled, there is still no widely accepted theoretical framework describing this joint development. Here, we propose a computational model of the development of active binocular vision to fill this gap. The model is based on a formulation of the active efficient coding theory, which proposes that eye movements as well as stimulus encoding are jointly adapted to maximize the overall coding efficiency. Under healthy conditions, the model self-calibrates to perform accurate vergence and accommodation eye movements. It exploits disparity cues to deduce the direction of defocus, which leads to coordinated vergence and accommodation responses. In a simulated anisometropic case, where the refraction power of the two eyes differs, an amblyopia-like state develops in which the foveal region of one eye is suppressed due to inputs from the other eye. After correcting for refractive errors, the model can only reach healthy performance levels if receptive fields are still plastic, in line with findings on a critical period for binocular vision development. Overall, our model offers a unifying conceptual framework for understanding the development of binocular vision.
Density visualization pipeline: a tool for cellular and network density visualization and analysis
(2020)
Neuron classification is an important component in analyzing network structure and quantifying the effect of neuron topology on signal processing. Current quantification and classification approaches rely on morphology projection onto lower-dimensional spaces. In this paper a 3D visualization and quantification tool is presented. The Density Visualization Pipeline (DVP) computes, visualizes and quantifies the density distribution, i.e., the “mass” of interneurons. We use the DVP to characterize and classify a set of GABAergic interneurons. Classification of GABAergic interneurons is of crucial importance to understand on the one hand their various functions and on the other hand their ubiquitous appearance in the neocortex. 3D density map visualization and projection to the one-dimensional x, y, z subspaces show a clear distinction between the studied cells, based on these metrics. The DVP can be coupled to computational studies of the behavior of neurons and networks, in which network topology information is derived from DVP information. The DVP reads common neuromorphological file formats, e.g., Neurolucida XML files, NeuroMorpho.org SWC files and plain ASCII files. Full 3D visualization and projections of the density to 1D and 2D manifolds are supported by the DVP. All routines are embedded within the visual programming IDE VRL-Studio for Java which allows the definition and rapid modification of analysis workflows.