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The thesis deals with the analysis and modeling of point processes emerging from different experiments in neuroscience. In particular, the description and detection of different types of variability changes in point processes is of interest.
A non-stationary rate or variance of life times is a well-known problem in the description of point processes like neuronal spike trains and can affect the results of further analyses requiring stationarity. Moreover, non-stationary parameters might also contain important information themselves. The goal of the first part of the thesis is the (further) development of a technique to detect both rate and variance changes that may occur in multiple time scales separately or simultaneously. A two-step procedure building on the multiple filter test (Messer et al., 2014) is used that first tests the null hypothesis of rate homogeneity allowing for an inhomogeneous variance and that estimates change points in the rate if the null hypothesis is rejected. In the second step, the null hypothesis of variance homogeneity is tested and variance change points are estimated. Rate change points are used as input. The main idea is the comparison of estimated variances in adjacent windows of different sizes sliding over the process. To determine the rejection threshold functionals of the Brownian motion are identified as limit processes under the null of variance homogeneity. The non-parametric procedure is not restricted to the case of at most one change point. It is shown in simulation studies that the corresponding test keeps the asymptotic significance level for a wide range of parameters and that the test power is remarkable. The practical applicability of the procedure is underlined by the analysis of neuronal spike trains.
Point processes resulting from experiments on bistable perception are analyzed in the second part of the thesis. Visual illusions allowing for than more possible perception lead to unpredictable changes of perception. In the thesis data from (Schmack et al., 2015) are used. A rotating sphere with switching perceived rotation direction was presented to the participants of the study. The stimulus was presented continuously and intermittently, i.e., with short periods of „blank display“ between the presentation periods. There are remarkable differences in the response patterns between the two types of presentation. During continuous presentation the distribution of dominance times, i.e., the intervals of constant perception, is a right-skewed and unimodal distribution with a mean of about five seconds. In contrast, during intermittent presentation one observes very long, stable dominance times of more than one minute interchanging with very short, unstable dominance times of less than five seconds, i.e., an increase of variability.
The main goal of the second part is to develop a model for the response patterns to bistable perception that builds a bridge between empirical data analysis and mechanistic modeling. Thus, the model should be able to describe both the response patterns to continuous presentation and to intermittent presentation. Moreover, the model should be fittable to typically short experimental data, and the model should allow for neuronal correlates. Current approaches often use detailed assumptions and large parameter sets, which complicate parameter estimation.
First, a Hidden Markov Model is applied. Second, to allow for neuronal correlates, a Hierarchical Brownian Model (HBM) is introduced, where perception is modeled by the competition of two neuronal populations. The activity difference between these two populations is described by a Brownian motion with drift fluctuating between two borders, where each first hitting time causes a perceptual change. To model the response patterns to intermittent presentation a second layer with competing neuronal populations (coding a stable and an unstable state) is assumed. Again, the data are described very well, and the hypothesis that the relative time in the stable state is identical in a group of patients with schizophrenia and a control group is rejected. To sum up, the HBM intends to link empirical data analysis and mechanistic modeling and provides interesting new hypotheses on potential neuronal mechanisms of cognitive phenomena.
Biologische Signalwege bilden komplexe Netzwerke aus, um die Zellantwort sensibel regulieren zu können. Systembiologische Ansätze werden eingesetzt, um biologische Systeme anhand von Computer-gestützten Modellen zu untersuchen. Ein mathematisches Modell erlaubt, neben der logischen Erfassung der Regulation des biologischen Systems, die systemweite Simulation des dynamischen Verhaltens und Analyse der Robustheit und Anfälligkeit.
Der TNFR1-vermittelte Signalweg reguliert essenzielle Zellvorgänge wie Entzündungsantworten,
Proliferation und Zelltod. TNFR1 wird von dem Zytokin TNF-α stimuliert und fördert daraufhin die Bildung verschiedener makromolekularer Komplexe, welche unterschiedliche Zellantworten einleiten, von der Aktivierung des Transkriptionsfaktors NF-κB, welcher die Expression von proliferationsfördernden Genen reguliert, bis zu zwei Formen des Zelltods, der Apoptose und der Nekroptose. Die Regulation der verschiedenen Zellantworten wird auch als molekularer Schalter bezeichnet. Die exakten molekularen Vorgänge, welche die Zellantwort modulieren, sind noch nicht vollständig entschlüsselt. Eine Fehlregulation des Signalwegs kann chronische Entzündungen hervorrufen oder die Entstehung von Tumoren fördern.
In dieser Thesis haben wir die neuesten Erkenntnisse der Forschung des TNFR1-Signalwegs anhand von umfangreichen Interaktionsdaten aus der Literatur erstmals in einem Petrinetz-Modell erfasst und analysiert. Das manuell kuratierte Modell umfasst die sequenziellen Prozesse der NF-κB-Aktivierung, Apoptose und Nekroptose und berücksichtigt den Einfluss posttranslationaler Modifikationen.
Weiterhin wurden Analysemethoden für Signalwegs-Modelle entwickelt, welche die spezifischen Anforderungen dieser biologischen Systeme berücksichtigen und eine biologisch motivierte Netzwerkanalyse ermöglichen. Die Manatee-Invarianten identifizieren Signalflüsse im Gleichgewichtszustand in Modellen, die Zyklen aufweisen, und werden als Linearkombination von Transitions-Invarianten gebildet. Diese Signalflüsse erfassen idealerweise einen Prozess von der Rezeptorstimulation zur Zellantwort in einem Modell eines Signalwegs. Die Bestimmung aller möglichen Signalflüsse in Modellen von Signalwegen ist eine notwendige Voraussetzung für weitere biologisch motivierte Analysen, wie die in silico-Knockout Analyse. Wir haben ebenfalls ein neues Konzept zur Untersuchung von in silico-Knockouts vorgestellt. Die Effekte der in silico-Knockouts auf einzelne Komplexe und Prozesse des Signalwegs werden in der in silico-Knockout-Matrix repräsentiert. Wir haben die Software-Anwendung isiKnock entwickelt, welche beide Konzepte kombiniert und eine systematische Knockout-Analyse von Petrinetz-Modellen unterstützt.
Das Petrinetz-Modell des TNFR1-Signalwegs wurde auf seine elementaren Eigenschaften geprüft und die etablierten Analysen wie Platz-Invarianten und Transitions-Invarianten durchgeführt. Hierbei konnten die Transitions-Invarianten nicht in allen Fällen komplette biologische Signalflüsse beschreiben. Wir haben ebenfalls die neu vorgestellten Methoden auf das Petrinetz-Modell angewandt. Anhand der Manatee-Invarianten konnten wir die zusammenhängenden Signalflüsse identifizieren und nach ihrem biologischen Ausgang klassifizieren sowie die Auswirkungen der Rückkopplungen untersuchen. Wir konnten zeigen, dass die survival-Antwort durch die Aktivierung von NF-κB am häufigsten auftritt, danach die Apoptose, gefolgt von der Nekroptose. Die alternativen Signalflüsse in Form der Manatee-Invarianten spiegeln die Robustheit des biologischen Systems wider. Wir führten eine ausgiebige in silico-Knockout-Analyse basierend auf den Manatee-Invarianten durch, um die Proteine des Signalwegs nach ihrem Einfluss einzustufen und zu gruppieren. Die Proteine des Komplex I wiesen hierbei den größten Einfluss auf, angeführt von der Rezeptorstimulation und RIP1. Wir betrachteten und diskutierten die Regulation des molekularen Schalters anhand der Knockout-Analyse von selektierten Proteinen und deren Auswirkung auf wichtige Komplexe im Modell. Wir identifizierten die Ubiquitinierung in Komplex I sowie die NF-κB-abhängige Genexpression als die wichtigen Kontrollpunkte des TNFR1-Signalwegs. In Komplex II ist die Regulation der Aktivierung der Caspase-Aktivität entscheidend.
Die umfangreiche Netzwerkanalyse basierend auf Manatee-Invarianten und systematischer in silico-Knockout-Analyse verifizierte das Petrinetz-Modell und erlaubte die Untersuchung der Robustheit und Anfälligkeit des Systems. Die neu entwickelten Methoden ermöglichen eine fundierte, biologisch relevante Untersuchung von in silico-Modellen von Signalwegen. Der systembiologische Ansatz unterstützt die Aufklärung der Regulation und Funktion des verflochtenen Netzwerks des TNFR1-Signalwegs.
Background: Most smokers start smoking during their early adolescence, often with the idea that smoking is glamorous. Interventions that harness the broad availability of mobile phones as well as adolescents' interest in their appearance may be a novel way to improve school-based prevention. A recent study conducted in Germany showed promising results. However, the transfer to other cultural contexts, effects on different genders, and implementability remains unknown.
Objective: In this observational study, we aimed to test the perception and implementability of facial-aging apps to prevent smoking in secondary schools in Brazil in accordance with the theory of planned behavior and with respect to different genders.
Methods: We used a free facial-aging mobile phone app ("Smokerface") in three Brazilian secondary schools via a novel method called mirroring. The students’ altered three-dimensional selfies on mobile phones or tablets and images were "mirrored" via a projector in front of their whole grade. Using an anonymous questionnaire, we then measured on a 5-point Likert scale the perceptions of the intervention among 306 Brazilian secondary school students of both genders in the seventh grade (average age 12.97 years). A second questionnaire captured perceptions of medical students who conducted the intervention and its conduction per protocol.
Results: The majority of students perceived the intervention as fun (304/306, 99.3%), claimed the intervention motivated them not to smoke (289/306, 94.4%), and stated that they learned new benefits of not smoking (300/306, 98.0%). Only a minority of students disagreed or fully disagreed that they learned new benefits of nonsmoking (4/306, 1.3%) or that they themselves were motivated not to smoke (5/306, 1.6%). All of the protocol was delivered by volunteer medical students.
Conclusions: Our data indicate the potential for facial-aging interventions to reduce smoking prevalence in Brazilian secondary schools in accordance with the theory of planned behavior. Volunteer medical students enjoyed the intervention and are capable of complete implementation per protocol.
"Prognosen sind schwierig, besonders, wenn sie die Zukunft betreffen", sagt ein geflügeltes Wort. Die letzte Finanzkrise ist dafür ein gutes Beispiel, denn die wenigsten Analysten und Wirtschaftsweisen haben sie kommen sehen. Da Finanzkrisen glücklicherweise selten sind, ist es allerdings schwierig, Modelle zu entwickeln, die rechtzeitig vor einem Crash warnen.
Python for Power System Analysis (PyPSA) is a free software toolbox for simulating and optimising modern electrical power systems over multiple periods. PyPSA includes models for conventional generators with unit commitment, variable renewable generation, storage units, coupling to other energy sectors, and mixed alternating and direct current networks. It is designed to be easily extensible and to scale well with large networks and long time series. In this paper the basic functionality of PyPSA is described, including the formulation of the full power flow equations and the multi-period optimisation of operation and investment with linear power flow equations. PyPSA is positioned in the existing free software landscape as a bridge between traditional power flow analysis tools for steady-state analysis and full multi-period energy system models. The functionality is demonstrated on two open datasets of the transmission system in Germany (based on SciGRID) and Europe (based on GridKit).
The results of this thesis lie in the area of convex algebraic geometry, which is the intersection of real algebraic geometry, convex geometry, and optimization.
We study sums of nonnegative circuit polynomials (SONC) and their related cone, both geometrically and in application to polynomial optimization. SONC polynomials are certain sparse polynomials having a special structure in terms of their Newton polytopes and supports, and serve as a certificate of nonnegativity for real polynomials, which is independent of sums of squares.
The first part of this thesis is dedicated to the convex geometric study of the SONC cone. As main results we show that the SONC cone is full-dimensional in the cone of nonnegative polynomials, we exactly determine the number of zeros of a nonnegative circuit polynomial, and we give a complete and explicit characterization of the number of zeros of SONC polynomials and forms. Moreover, we provide a first approach to the study of the exposed faces of the SONC cone and their dimensions.
In the second part of the thesis we use SONC polynomials to tackle constrained polynomial optimization problems (CPOPs).
As a first step, we derive a lower bound for the optimal value of CPOP based on SONC polynomials by using a single convex optimization program, which is a geometric program (GP) under certain assumptions. GPs are a special type of convex optimization problems and can be solved in polynomial time. We test the new method experimentally and provide examples comparing our new SONC/GP approach with Lasserre's relaxation, a common approach for tackling CPOPs, which approximates nonnegative polynomials via sums of squares and semidefinite programming (SDP). The new approach comes with the benefit that in practice GPs can be solved significantly faster than SDPs. Furthermore, increasing the degree of a given problem has almost no effect on the runtime of the new program, which is in sharp contrast to SDPs.
As a second step, we establish a hierarchy of efficiently computable lower bounds converging to the optimal value of CPOP based on SONC polynomials. For a given degree each bound is computable by a relative entropy program. This program is also a convex optimization program, which is more general than a geometric program, but still efficiently solvable via interior point methods.
The thesis is about random Constraint Satisfaction Problems (rCSP). These are random instances of classical problems in NP. In the literature the study of rCSP involve identifying-locating phase transition phenomena as well as investigating algorithmic questions.
Recently, some ingenious however mathematically non-rigorous theories from statistical physics have given the study of rCSP a new perspective; the so-called Cavity Method makes some very impressing predictions about the most fundamental properties of rCSP.
In this thesis, we investigate the soundness of some of the most basic predictions of the Cavity Method, mainly, regarding the structure of the so-called Gibbs distribution on various rCSP models. Furthermore, we study some fundamental algorithmic problem related to rCSP. This includes both analysing well-known dynamical process (dynamics) like Glauber Dynamics, Metropolis Process, as well as proposing new algorithmic approaches to some natural problems related to rCSP.
Digitale Kompetenzen von Hochschullehrenden messen : Validierungsstudie eines Kompetenzrasters
(2018)
Der Beitrag beschreibt die Entwicklung eines Kompetenzrasters zur Erfassung digitaler Kompetenzen von Hochschullehrenden und stellt Ergebnisse der Validierung des Rasters vor. Dazu werden die Ergebnisse eines Pre-Tests (N=90) unter Teilnehmenden eines E-LearningQualifizierungsangebots inferenzstatistisch ausgewertet. Zusätzlich werden zur äußeren Validierung des Kompetenzrasters Ergebnisse mit Aussagen der Befragungsteilnehmer*innen verglichen, die mit Hilfe qualitativer Methoden aus E-Portfolios gewonnen wurden. Die skalenanalytischen Befunde erbrachten für sechs der acht Subdimensionen digitaler Kompetenz eindeutige, einfaktorielle Lösungen mit guten Varianzaufklärungen. Die Subskalen verfügen über hohe interne Konsistenzen. Zwei Dimensionen trennen sich faktorenanalytisch in weitere Subtests auf, die sich im Test ebenfalls als reliabel erweisen. Zur Validität des Kompetenzrasters konnten durch Zusammenhänge mit Aussagen aus E-Portfolios positive Belege gesammelt werden.
Complex problem solving (CPS) is a highly transversal competence needed in educational and vocational settings as well as everyday life. The assessment of CPS is often computer-based, and therefore provides data regarding not only the outcome but also the process of CPS. However, research addressing this issue is scarce. In this article we investigated planning activities in the process of complex problem solving. We operationalized planning through three behavioral measures indicating the duration of the longest planning interval, the delay of the longest planning interval and the variance of intervals between each two successive interactions. We found a significant negative average effect for our delay indicator, indicating that early planning in CPS is more beneficial. However, we also found effects depending on task and interaction effects for all three indicators, suggesting that the effects of different planning behaviors on CPS are highly intertwined.