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La Critique de la vision phénoménologique est une tentative de critique de la phénoménologie, à travers la Théorie Critique et la philosophie d’Emmanuel Lévinas, qui caractérise la phénoménologie comme une science eidétique. Nous proposons donc une bref histoire du concept de l’eidos, qui est compris comme un archétype idéal depuis le Platonisme. On aborde l’opposition du matérialisme et de l’idéalisme ancrée dans la Théorie des formes de Platon, l’hylémorphisme d’Aristote, et la Théorie matérialiste des simulacres de Lucrèce. La question substantielle : «matérialisme et/ou idéalisme »nous conduit aux principes de l’individuation, au formalisme et aux concepts de la réification. La phénoménologie de Husserl est née dans le Kulturkampf qui se caractérise par le déferlement du positivisme dans l’idéalisme. Sous cet angle, la phénoménologie est un certain tour de force idéaliste contre le positivisme. La phénoménologie essaie d’intégrer les courants contemporains de la philosophie allemande, et c’est ici et non en biologie que se situe la lutte pour la vie, selon Husserl. Le problème de la vision phénoménologique, en regard de la «race» comportant des significations qui ne sont pas particulièrement biologiques, est un problème qui remonte à Aristote. Selon lui, l’usage de l’eidos est aussi synonyme des catégories de genre et d’espèce. L’eidos d’Husserl inclut la conception d’Aristote, et se présente comme un moyen possible de construire un concept métaphysique de la race en dehors de la biologie. L’eidos en tant que type, tel qu’il est constitué dans la Lebenswelt , se caractérise finalement par la transformation de l’Umwelt en Heimwelt, dans lequel l’individu est passivement formé par la tradition, l’habitus, par terre et sang–un monde de la moyenne, de la « normalité ». Nous essayons de montrer, dans le processus de ce bouleversement irrationnel de la philosophie en Allemagne, le cas particulier et tragique du devenir de la phénoménologie de Husserl entre les mains de Heidegger, qui suggère une auto-limitation de la phénoménologie à la recherche d’un sens qui vise à l’unité du Dasein . Notre but ici est simple et radical : de même que Marx a montré que la philosophie de Hegel n’est rien d’autre que la collection des catégories de la philosophie bourg eoise en déclin, Lévinas et l’École de Francfort ont montré que la philosophie de Heidegger n’est rien d’autre qu’une poursuite de la philosophie hégélienne, mais à un niveau plus abstrait et aussi plus global.
Objective: To investigate the accuracy, efficiency and radiation dose of a novel laser navigation system (LNS) compared to those of free-handed punctures on computed tomography (CT).
Materials and methods: Sixty punctures were performed using a phantom body to compare accuracy, timely effort, and radiation dose of the conventional free-handed procedure to those of the LNS-guided method. An additional 20 LNS-guided interventions were performed on another phantom to confirm accuracy. Ten patients subsequently underwent LNS-guided punctures.
Results: The phantom 1-LNS group showed a target point accuracy of 4.0 ± 2.7 mm (freehand, 6.3 ± 3.6 mm; p = 0.008), entrance point accuracy of 0.8 ± 0.6 mm (freehand, 6.1 ± 4.7 mm), needle angulation accuracy of 1.3 ± 0.9° (freehand, 3.4 ± 3.1°; p < 0.001), intervention time of 7.03 ± 5.18 minutes (freehand, 8.38 ± 4.09 minutes; p = 0.006), and 4.2 ± 3.6 CT images (freehand, 7.9 ± 5.1; p < 0.001). These results show significant improvement in 60 punctures compared to freehand. The phantom 2-LNS group showed a target point accuracy of 3.6 ± 2.5 mm, entrance point accuracy of 1.4 ± 2.0 mm, needle angulation accuracy of 1.0 ± 1.2°, intervention time of 1.44 ± 0.22 minutes, and 3.4 ± 1.7 CT images. The LNS group achieved target point accuracy of 5.0 ± 1.2 mm, entrance point accuracy of 2.0 ± 1.5 mm, needle angulation accuracy of 1.5 ± 0.3°, intervention time of 12.08 ± 3.07 minutes, and used 5.7 ± 1.6 CT-images for the first experience with patients.
Conclusion: Laser navigation system improved accuracy, duration of intervention, and radiation dose of CT-guided interventions.
Background: The complex cellular networks within tumors, the cytokine milieu, and tumor immune escape mechanisms affecting infiltration and anti-tumor activity of immune cells are of great interest to understand tumor formation and to decipher novel access points for cancer therapy. However, cellular in vitro assays, which rely on monolayer cultures of mammalian cell lines, neglect the three-dimensional architecture of a tumor, thus limiting their validity for the in vivo situation.
Methods: Three-dimensional in vivo-like tumor spheroid were established from human cervical carcinoma cell lines as proof of concept to investigate infiltration and cytotoxicity of NK cells in a 96-well plate format, which is applicable for high-throughput screening. Tumor spheroids were monitored for NK cell infiltration and cytotoxicity by flow cytometry. Infiltrated NK cells, could be recovered by magnetic cell separation.
Results: The tumor spheroids were stable over several days with minor alterations in phenotypic appearance. The tumor spheroids expressed high levels of cellular ligands for the natural killer (NK) group 2D receptor (NKG2D), mediating spheroid destruction by primary human NK cells. Interestingly, destruction of a three-dimensional tumor spheroid took much longer when compared to the parental monolayer cultures. Moreover, destruction of tumor spheroids was accompanied by infiltration of a fraction of NK cells, which could be recovered at high purity.
Conclusion: Tumor spheroids represent a versatile in vivo-like model system to study cytotoxicity and infiltration of immune cells in high-throughput screening. This system might proof useful for the investigation of the modulatory potential of soluble factors and cells of the tumor microenvironment on immune cell activity as well as profiling of patient-/donor-derived immune cells to personalize cellular immunotherapy.
Background: Plant hormones are well known regulators which balance plant responses to abiotic and biotic stresses. We investigated the role of abscisic acid (ABA) in resistance of barley (Hordeum vulgare L.) against the plant pathogenic fungus Magnaporthe oryzae.
Results: Exogenous application of ABA prior to inoculation with M. oryzae led to more disease symptoms on barley leaves. This result contrasted the finding that ABA application enhances resistance of barley against the powdery mildew fungus. Microscopic analysis identified diminished penetration resistance as cause for enhanced susceptibility. Consistently, the barley mutant Az34, impaired in ABA biosynthesis, was less susceptible to infection by M. oryzae and displayed elevated penetration resistance as compared to the isogenic wild type cultivar Steptoe. Chemical complementation of Az34 mutant plants by exogenous application of ABA re-established disease severity to the wild type level. The role of ABA in susceptibility of barley against M. oryzae was corroborated by showing that ABA application led to increased disease severity in all barley cultivars under investigation except for the most susceptible cultivar Pallas. Interestingly, endogenous ABA concentrations did not significantly change after infection of barley with M. oryzae.
Conclusion: Our results revealed that elevated ABA levels led to a higher disease severity on barley leaves to M. oryzae. This supports earlier reports on the role of ABA in enhancing susceptibility of rice to the same pathogen and thereby demonstrates a host plant-independent function of this phytohormone in pathogenicity of monocotyledonous plants against M. oryzae.
Background: High reproducibility of LV mass and volume measurement from cine cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) has been shown within single centers. However, the extent to which contours may vary from center to center, due to different training protocols, is unknown. We aimed to quantify sources of variation between many centers, and provide a multi-center consensus ground truth dataset for benchmarking automated processing tools and facilitating training for new readers in CMR analysis.
Methods: Seven independent expert readers, representing seven experienced CMR core laboratories, analyzed fifteen cine CMR data sets in accordance with their standard operating protocols and SCMR guidelines. Consensus contours were generated for each image according to a statistical optimization scheme that maximized contour placement agreement between readers.
Results: Reader-consensus agreement was better than inter-reader agreement (end-diastolic volume 14.7 ml vs 15.2–28.4 ml; end-systolic volume 13.2 ml vs 14.0–21.5 ml; LV mass 17.5 g vs 20.2–34.5 g; ejection fraction 4.2 % vs 4.6–7.5 %). Compared with consensus contours, readers were very consistent (small variability across cases within each reader), but bias varied between readers due to differences in contouring protocols at each center. Although larger contour differences were found at the apex and base, the main effect on volume was due to small but consistent differences in the position of the contours in all regions of the LV.
Conclusions: A multi-center consensus dataset was established for the purposes of benchmarking and training. Achieving consensus on contour drawing protocol between centers before analysis, or bias correction after analysis, is required when collating multi-center results.
We analyze the macroeconomic implications of increasing the top marginal income tax rate using a dynamic general equilibrium framework with heterogeneous agents and a fiscal structure resembling the actual U.S. tax system. The wealth and income distributions generated by our model replicate the empirical ones. In two policy experiments, we increase the statutory top marginal tax rate from 35 to 70 percent and redistribute the additional tax revenue among households, either by decreasing all other marginal tax rates or by paying out a lump-sum transfer to all households. We find that increasing the top marginal tax rate decreases inequality in both wealth and income but also leads to a contraction of the aggregate economy. This is primarily driven by the negative effects that the tax change has on top income earners. The aggregate gain in welfare is sizable in both experiments mainly due to a higher degree of distributional equality.
This paper looks into the specific influence that the European banking union will have on (future) bank client relationships. It shows that the intended regulatory influence on market conditions in principle serves as a powerful governance tool to achieve financial stability objectives.
From this vantage, it analyzes macro-prudential instruments with a particular view to mortgage lending markets – the latter have been critical in the emergence of many modern financial crises. In gauging the impact of the new European supervisory framework, it finds that the ECB will lack influence on key macro-prudential tools to push through more rigid supervisory policies vis-à-vis forbearing national authorities.
Furthermore, this paper points out that the current design of the European bail-in tool supplies resolution authorities with undue discretion. This feature which also afflicts the SRM imperils the key policy objective to re-instill market discipline on banks’ debt financing operations. The latter is also called into question because the nested regulatory technique that aims at preventing bail-outs unintendedly opens additional maneuvering space for political decision makers.
In Absatz 3 des Artikel 136 des Vertrags über die Arbeitsweise der EU (AEUV) wurde für die Verwendung von ESM Geldern festgelegt, dass diese nur dann zur Gewährung von Finanzhilfen verwendet werden dürfen, wenn „... dies unabdingbar ist, um die Stabilität des Euro-Währungsgebiets insgesamt zu wahren." Im vorliegenden Artikel argumentiert Alfons Weichenrieder, dass die nach dem griechischen Referendum entstandene Situation, die Stabilität des “Euro-Währungsgebiets insgesamt" nicht bedroht, so dass die Vergabe von neuen Krediten, zumal diese voraussichtlich unter weichen und im Zweifel nicht durchsetzbaren Auflagen vergeben würden, ein offensichtlicher Verstoß gegen die Grundlagen des ESM wäre.
In this statement the European Shadow Financial Regulatory Committee (ESFRC) is advocating a conditional relief of Greek’s government debt based on Greece meeting certain targets for structural economic reforms in areas such as its labor market and pensions sector.The authors argue that the position of the European institutions that debt relief for Greece cannot be part of an agreement is based on the illusion that Greece will be able to service its sovereign debt and reduce its debt overhang after implementing a set of fiscal and structural reforms. However, the Greek economy would need to grow at an unrealistig level to achieve debt sustainability soley on the basis of reforms.The authors therefore view a substantial debt relief as inevitable and argue that three questions must be resolved urgently, in order to structure debt relief adequately: First, which groups must accept losses associated with debt relief. Second, how much debt relief should be offered. Third, under what conditions should relief be offered.
In light of the failed negotiations with Greece, Jan Krahnen argues that an effective reform agenda for Greece can only be designed by the elected government. Fundamental reforms will take time to take full effect and euro area member states will, in the meantime, have to offer Greece a basic level of economic security.
Krahnen demands that policy makers and the professional public involved view the Greek crisis as an opportunity to take the next necessary steps to formulate a reform agenda for the European Monetary Union. A community of supranational and non-party researchers and intellectuals could take the initiative and in a structured process develop a trustworthy and realistic concept that drafts the next big step towards a political union of Europe, including elements of a fiscal union.
Mit Blick auf die gescheiterten Verhandlungen mit Griechenland, argumentiert Jan Krahnen im vorliegenden Policy Beitrag, dass eine zielführende Reformagenda nur von der gewählten Regierung Griechenlands formuliert werden kann. Die Euro-Staaten müssten Griechenland für die Zeitdauer einer Restrukturierungszeit eine Grundsicherung zusagen. Die EU-Staaten fordert Krahnen dazu auf, aus der Griechenlandkrise die notwendigen Konsequenzen zu ziehen. Auch die Eurozone brauche eine effektive Reformagenda. Die Verschuldungsdynamik innerhalb der Währungsunion, deren Auswüchse am Beispiel Griechenlands besonders deutlich werden, könne bei fehlendem guten Willen nur durch eine politische Union und eine in sie eingebettete Fiskalunion aufgelöst werden. Krahnen argumentiert, dass ein Weiterverhandeln über Restrukturierungsauflagen aus der derzeitigen verfahrenen Situation nicht herausführen wird. Entscheidend sei, ein mehr oder weniger umfassendes Paket zu schnüren, das Elemente eines teilweisen internationalen Haftungsverbunds mit Elementen eines partiellen nationalen Souveränitätsverzichts verbindet.
Negative Zinsen auf Einlagen – juristische Hindernisse und ihre wettbewerbspolitischen Auswirkungen
(2015)
Im anhaltenden Niedrigzinsumfeld tun Banken sich schwer damit, die ihnen zur Verfügung gestellte Liquidität einer renditeträchtigen Nachfrage zuzuführen. Darüberhinaus müssen sie auf Liquiditätsüberschüsse, die im Rahmen der Einlagenfazilität des Eurosystems über Nacht bei den nationalen Zentralbanken der Eurozone deponiert werden, Strafzinsen entrichtet. Vor diesem Hintergrund könnten Banken durch negative Einlagenzinsen das Anliegen verfolgen, die Nachfrage nach Aufbewahrung von (Sicht)Einlagen zu verringern. Einer solchen Strategie stehen aber aus juristischer Sicht Hindernisse entgegen, soweit der beschriebene Paradigmenwechsel auch im Rahmen existierender Kundenbeziehungen einseitig vorgenommen werden soll. Die rechtlichen Hürden sind weder Ausdruck einer realitätsfernen Haarspalterei, noch eines verbraucherschützenden Furors. Vielmehr ermöglichen sie privaten und gewerblichen Bankkunden, im Zeitpunkt der angestrebten Zinsanpassung bewusst über die Verwendung ihrer liquiden Mittel zu entscheiden.
When markets are incomplete, social security can partially insure against idiosyncratic and aggregate risks. We incorporate both risks into an analytically tractable model with two overlapping generations. We derive the equilibrium dynamics in closed form and show that joint presence of both risks leads to over-proportional risk exposure for households. This implies that the whole benefit from insurance through social security is greater than the sum of the benefits from insurance against each of the two risks in isolation. We measure this through interaction effects which appear even though the two risks are orthogonal by construction. While the interactions unambiguously increase the welfare benefits from insurance, they can in- or decrease the welfare costs from crowding out of capital formation. The net effect depends on the relative strengths of the opposing forces.
We investigate the relationship between anchoring and the emergence of bubbles in experimental asset markets. We show that setting a visual anchor at the fundamental value (FV) in the first period only is sufficient to eliminate or to significantly reduce bubbles in laboratory asset markets. If no FV-anchor is set, bubble-crash patterns emerge. Our results indicate that bubbles in laboratory environments are primarily sparked in the first period. If prices are initiated around the FV, they stay close to the FV over the entire trading horizon. Our insights can be related to initial public offerings and the interaction between prices set on pre-opening markets and subsequent intra-day price dynamics.
The pressure on tax haven countries to engage in tax information exchange shows first effects on capital markets. Empirical research suggests that investors do react to information exchange and partially withdraw from previous secrecy jurisdictions that open up to information exchange. While some of the economic literature emphasizes possible positive effects of tax havens, the present paper argues that proponents of positive effects may have started from questionable premises, in particular when it comes to the effects that tax havens have for emerging markets like China and India.
n this paper we compute the optimal tax and education policy transition in an economy where progressive taxes provide social insurance against idiosyncratic wage risk, but distort the education decision of households. Optimally chosen tertiary education subsidies mitigate these distortions. We highlight the importance of two different channels through which academic talent is transmitted across generations (persistence of innate ability vs. the impact of parental education) for the optimal design of these policies and model different forms of labor as imperfect substitutes, thereby generating general equilibrium feedback effects from policies to relative wages of skilled and unskilled workers. We show that subsidizing higher education has important redistributive benefits, by shrinking the college wage premium in general equilibrium. We also argue that a full characterization of the transition path is crucial for policy evaluation. We find that optimal education policies are always characterized by generous tuition subsidies, but the optimal degree of income tax progressivity depends crucially on whether transitional costs of policies are explicitly taken into account and how strongly the college premium responds to policy changes in general equilibrium.
This paper looks into the specific influence that the European banking union will have on (future) bank client relationships. It shows that the intended regulatory influence on market conditions in principle serves as a powerful governance tool to achieve financial stability objectives.
From this vantage, it analyzes macro-prudential instruments with a particular view to mortgage lending markets – the latter have been critical in the emergence of many modern financial crises. In gauging the impact of the new European supervisory framework, it finds that the ECB will lack influence on key macro-prudential tools to push through more rigid supervisory policies vis-à-vis forbearing national authorities.
Furthermore, this paper points out that the current design of the European bail-in tool supplies resolution authorities with undue discretion. This feature which also afflicts the SRM imperils the key policy objective to re-instill market discipline on banks’ debt financing operations. The latter is also called into question because the nested regulatory technique that aims at preventing bail-outs unintendedly opens additional maneuvering space for political decision makers.
In an experimental setting in which investors can entrust their money to traders, we investigate how compensation schemes affect liquidity provision and asset prices. Investors face a trade-off between risk and return. At the benefit of a potentially higher return, they can entrust their money to a trader. However this investment is risky, as the trader might not be trustworthy. Alternatively, they can opt for a safe but low return. We study how subjects solve this trade-off when traders are either liable for losses or not, and when their bonuses are either capped or not. Limited liability introduces a conflict of interest because it makes traders value the asset more than investors. To limit losses, investors should thus restrict liquidity provision to force traders to trade at a lower price. By contrast, bonus caps make traders value the asset less than investors. This should encourage liquidity provision and decrease prices. In contrast to these predictions, we find that under limited liability investors contribute to asset price bubbles by increasing liquidity provision and that caps fail to tame bubbles. Overall, giving investors skin in the game fosters financial stability.
Since August 2009, German legislation allows for voluntary Say on Pay Votes (SoPV) during Annual General Meetings (AGMs). We examine 1,169 AGMs of all German listed firms with more than 10,000 agenda items over the period 2010-2013 to identify (1) determinants and approval rates of voluntary SoPVs, (2) the effect of voluntary SoPVs on AGM participation, and (3) the effect of SoP on executive compensation. Our data reveals that in the first four years of the voluntary say on pay regime every second firm in our sample has opted for having a SoPV. The propensity for a SoPV increases with firm size, abnormal executive compensation and free float of shares. Indeed, smaller firms with concentrated ownership do not only have a lower propensity for a SoPV, but also show a higher propensity to opt for only limited disclosure of executive compensation. Approval rates of SoPVs are lower than the approval rate for the average AGM agenda item and this effect is stronger in (i) widely held firms as well as in (ii) firms with abnormal executive compensation. Additionally, SoPVs actually can increase AGM participation; however, this result is particularly evident for widely held firms. Finally, we find stronger pay for performance elements within total executive compensation, particularly when the effect of executive compensation is lagged over the years following the vote. Overall, our results are consistent with the view that firms use voluntary SoPV to gain legitimation for executive remuneration policies in firms with low ownership concentration. This is enforced, where (small) shareholders consider executive compensation a part of the agency problem of listed firms, and where (small) shareholders consider SoPVs as a possibility to actively influence corporate decisions, with these decisions leading to a higher degree of alignment between executive management boards and shareholders.
The standard view suggests that removing barriers to entry and improving judicial enforcement reduces informality and boosts investment and growth. However, a general equilibrium approach shows that this conclusion may hold to a lesser extent in countries with a constrained supply of funds because of, for example, a more concentrated banking sector or lower financial openness. When the formal sector grows larger in those countries, more entrepreneurs become creditworthy, but the higher pressure on the credit market limits further capital accumulation. We show empirical evidence consistent with these predictions.
Die Seismizität des nördlichen Oberrheingrabens (ORG) ist aufgrund seines Potentials für die geothermische Nutzung und der damit möglicherweise verbundenen seismischen Risiken von allgemeinem Interesse. Detaillierte Kenntnisse der natürlichen Seismizität erlauben Rückschlüsse auf aktive Störungszonen und Spannungsverhältnisse im Untergrund. Sie liefert außerdem wichtige Hintergrundinformationen für die Abschätzung einer möglichen induzierten Seismizität. Untersuchungen zur Charakterisierung der natürlichen Seismizität, des Spannungsfeldes und der seismischen Gefährdung des nördlichen ORG sind Hauptbestandteil dieser Arbeit, die innerhalb des BMU/BMWi-Projektes SiMoN (Seismisches Monitoring im Zusammenhang mit der geothermischen Nutzung des Nördlichen Oberrheingrabens) entstanden ist. Aufzeichnungen eines Netzwerkes aus 13 seismischen Stationen dienen als Datengrundlage zur Charakterisierung der Seismizität innerhalb eines etwa 50 x 60 km2 großen Areals im dichtbesiedelten Rhein-Main Gebiet. Untersuchungen der Rauschbedingungen zur Bewertung der Eignung der Stationsorte für das Aufzeichnen der natürlichen Seismizität lieferten bei den Stationen auf felsigem Untergrund sehr gute spektrale Eigenschaften, während alle Stationen im Sediment des ORG deutlich höhere Rauschanteile aufzeigten. Anhand systematischer Messungen in flachen Bohrlöchern konnten laterale und vertikale Variationen des seismischen Rauschens beschrieben werden und dadurch eine Verbesserung der Detektionsschwelle beobachtet werden.
Es werden die Ergebnisse des seismischen Monitorings für den Zeitraum November 2010 bis Dezember 2014 dargestellt. Die Detektionsschwelle für das Netzwerk liegt bei einer Lokalmagnitude von etwa 0,5, die Vollständigkeitsmagnitude beträgt Mc = 1,2. Seit Beginn der Datenaufzeichnung konnten 243 Erdbeben im unmittelbaren Bereich des Stations-netzwerkes mit Magnituden im Bereich zwischen ML = -0,5 und ML = 4,2 lokalisiert werden. Die Epizentren liegen hauptsächlich entlang der östlichen Grabenschulter und im Graben; entlang der westlichen Grabenschulter ist die seismische Aktivität deutlich geringer. Eine weitere aktive Region konnte entlang der südlichen Ausläufer des Taunus im Nordwesten des Untersuchungsgebietes identifiziert werden. Die Seismizität erstreckt sich bis in eine Tiefe von 24 km mit einem Maximum der hypozentralen Tiefenverteilung im Bereich von 12-18 km. Im Graben ist die Seismizität dabei auf die tiefere Kruste im Bereich von 9-24 km beschränkt. Das Fehlen von seismischer Aktivität in der oberen Kruste bis ca. 9 km Tiefe im Graben könnte auf eine aseismische Deformation in diesem Tiefenbereich hindeuten. Seit Mai 2014 konnte südöstlich von Darmstadt bei der Ortschaft Ober-Ramstadt zum ersten Mal seit fast 150 Jahren eine Schwarmbebenaktivität im Bereich des nördlichen ORG registriert werden. Die Hypozentren sind in zwei Cluster unterteilt, die räumlich voneinander getrennt sind und unterschiedliche Aktivitätsraten aufweisen. Die Herdtiefen liegen im Bereich von 1-8 km.
Zusätzlich zu den Daten des SiMoN Netzwerkes wurden Aufzeichnungen der regionalen Erdbebendienste in Herdflächenanalysen für insgesamt 58 Erdbeben einbezogen. Die Herdflächenlösungen weisen überwiegend Blattverschiebungen (Strike-slip-Mechanismen) auf. Auf- und Abschiebungen spielen nur eine untergeordnete Rolle. Die berechneten Herdmechanismen bestätigen, dass sich das Spannungsfeld des nördlichen ORG transtensional verhält, im Vergleich zu früheren Studien konnte jedoch eine deutlich ausgeprägte Blattverschiebungskomponente identifiziert werden. Zur Bestimmung der Hauptspannungsachsen wurde eine Inversion der Herdflächenlösungen durchgeführt und die Richtung der maximalen horizontalen Spannung, welche hauptsächlich in N135°E orientiert ist, bestimmt.
Aufbauend auf den neu gewonnen Erkenntnissen zur natürlichen Seismizität und zum Spannungsfeld des nördlichen ORG wurde eine probabilistische seismische Gefährdungsanalyse durchgeführt. Um Unsicherheiten in den seismischen Quellregion-modellen zu berücksichtigen, wurden sechs unterschiedliche Modelle entwickelt. Für jede Quellregion wurden spezifische Parameter bestimmt. Ihre Unsicherheiten werden in einem logischen Baum behandelt. Auf der Grundlage eines neu zusammengestellten Momentmagnituden-basierten Erdbebenkatalogs wurden die Magnitudenhäufigkeits-parameter bestimmt. Unter Berücksichtigung des tektonischen Regimes in jeder Quelle wurden unterschiedliche Dämpfungsrelationen der Bodenbeschleunigung verwendet. Zur Quantifizierung der maximal zu erwartenden Magnitude in jeder Quelle wurden Wahrscheinlichkeitsdichtefunktionen berechnet. Die Resultate der Gefährdungsanalyse werden in Form von Karten der Spektralbodenbeschleunigungen und Spitzenboden-beschleunigungen für Wiederkehrperioden von 475 und 2475 Jahren und Antwortbeschleunigungsspektren dargestellt. Im Vergleich zu früheren Studien konnte eine erhöhte seismische Gefährdung für den nördlichen ORG festgestellt werden.