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Institute
Die Welt im Wasserstress
(2024)
Wie haben sich die Wasserresourcen in den letzten 120 Jahren verändert? Und was passiert, wenn es bis Ende des 21. Jahrhunderts noch einmal zwei Grad wärmer wird als heute? Fragen wie diese beantwortet das globale Wasser-Modell WaterGAP, das maßgeblich vom Institut für Physische Geographie der Goethe-Universität und von der Ruhr-Universität Bochum entwickelt wird. Bislang ließen sich die damit erzeugten Daten nur von Expertinnen und Experten nutzen. Eine neue Web-App ändert das nun. Entwickelt wurde sie von dem französischen Geodaten-Unternehmen Ageoce, das dafür mit der Goethe-Universität kooperierte.
Although global- and catchment-scale hydrological models are often shown to accurately simulate long-term runoff time-series, far less is known about their suitability for capturing hydrological extremes, such as droughts. Here we evaluated simulations of hydrological droughts from nine catchment scale hydrological models (CHMs) and eight global scale hydrological models (GHMs) for eight large catchments: Upper Amazon, Lena, Upper Mississippi, Upper Niger, Rhine, Tagus, Upper Yangtze and Upper Yellow. The simulations were conducted within the framework of phase 2a of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2a). We evaluated the ability of the CHMs, GHMs and their respective ensemble means (Ens-CHM and Ens-GHM) to simulate observed hydrological droughts of at least one month duration, over 31 years (1971–2001). Hydrological drought events were identified from runoff-deficits and the Standardised Runoff Index (SRI). In all catchments, the CHMs performed relatively better than the GHMs, for simulating monthly runoff-deficits. The number of drought events identified under different drought categories (i.e. SRI values of -1 to -1.49, -1.5 to -1.99, and ≤-2) varied significantly between models. All the models, as well as the two ensemble means, have limited abilities to accurately simulate drought events in all eight catchments, in terms of their occurrence and magnitude. Overall, there are opportunities to improve both CHMs and GHMs for better characterisation of hydrological droughts.
Semi-arid African ecosystems influence trends and variability in global terrestrial carbon dynamics. However, there are uncertainties in potential effects of future climates for semi-arid ecosystems, especially for niche ecosystems. At the same time, African ecosystems provide the livelihoods and ecosystem services for around 1.4 billion people. Future population growth and associated changes in land use pose a challenge for the protection of African biodiversity. Therefore, this work focussed on future impacts of climate change on African ecosystems and carbon dynamics and also for African protected areas (PAs), where they may cooccur with other global change factors. Another focus was on uncertainties associated with future projections and with modelling the Nama Karoo, as an example of a semi-arid niche ecosystem. Dynamic vegetation models (DVMs) were the main research tool.
In Chapter 2, we analysed climate change impacts on African ecosystems and carbon pools until the end of the 21st century and associated uncertainties based on an ensemble of vegetation simulations with the DVM adaptive dynamic vegetation model (aDGVM). We investigated the impact of increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations and two climate change scenarios (medium (RCP4.5) and high emissions (RCP8.5); RCP - representative concentration pathway) on vegetation changes. Differences in the simulated vegetation were primarily driven by assumptions about the influence of CO2 on plants. Elevated CO2 concentrations led to increased total aboveground vegetation biomass and shrub encroachment into grasslands and savannas for both climate scenarios. In simulations without the direct influence of CO2 on plants, there was hardly any shrub encroachment and vegetation biomass decreased or varied between a slight decrease in some cases and a slight increase in others. Based on these results, biome changes due to climate change are likely in Africa in the future. Due to the large uncertainties in future projections, strategies to adapt to climate change must be flexible.
The simulated vegetation in Chapter 2 represented potential, natural vegetation and is particularly suitable to investigate PAs. However, PAs do not exist isolated from their environment and social developments. In Chapter 3, the vegetation projections with CO2 effect from Chapter 2 were combined with projections for population density and land use. Except for many PAs in North Africa, most PAs were adversely affected by at least one of the three drivers by the end of the 21st century in both investigated scenarios ("middle-of-the-road" and "fossil-fuelled development"). Cooccurrence of the drivers varied by region and scenario for PAs. Both scenarios implied increasing challenges for the conservation of African biodiversity in PAs. The impact of climate change on vegetation is likely to be exacerbated by socio-economic change for most African PAs. Strong mitigation of future climate change together with equitable societal development may facilitate successful ecosystem conservation.
The simulations in Chapters 2 and 3 showed large-scale patterns of vegetation change, but their low resolution makes them unsuitable for local analyses. In Chapter 4, the challenges of simulating smaller scale, semi-arid ecosystems and their carbon cycle were analysed for the Nama Karoo with the aDGVM2 and its shrub module. The aDGVM2 is based on the aDGVM, but represents plants more flexibly. In all tested aDGVM2 configurations, the carbon fluxes improved compared to initial simulations but still overestimated them. The measured morphology of the dwarf shrubs and soil water dynamics were not reproduced in aDGVM2. Semi-arid soil water dynamics and coping strategies of semi-arid dwarf shrubs under drought stress are not adequately implemented in the aDGVM2. Further field research on semi-arid water and carbon dynamics of vegetation is necessary to parameterise the aDGVM2 for dwarf shrubs. If these challenges are overcome, DVMs can be a powerful tool for much-needed research on the impacts of climate change on the Nama Karoo.
The analyses have shown that climate change under medium to high emission scenarios is likely to lead to large-scale changes in ecosystems and the carbon balance in Africa. Because lower emissions scenarios come with less uncertainty, climate change adaptation strategies likely need to be less complex or extensive if climate change is minimised. For African PAs, the challenges of climate change may be exacerbated by socio-economic factors to a regionally varying extent. This research suggests that successful ecosystem conservation depends on climate change mitigation measures and ensuring equitable, sustainable development. The shown uncertainties, e.g., in the implementation of the CO2 effect on plants or vegetation dynamics in more niche ecosystems, help to focus future research efforts and increase our understanding of the range of plausible futures we may need to adapt to.
Climatology of morphology and cloud-radiative properties of marine low-level mixed-phase clouds
(2023)
Marine stratocumuli cover about 40 - 60% of the ocean surface. They self-organize into different morphological regimes. The two organized cellular regimes are called open and closed mesoscale-cellular convective (MCC) clouds. In mid-to-high latitudes, open and closed cells are the two most frequent types of MCC clouds. In particular, many MCC clouds consist of a mixture of vapor, liquid droplets, and ice particles, referred to as mixed-phase clouds (MPCs). Even for the same cloud fraction, the albedo of open cells is, on average, lower than that of closed MCC clouds. Cloud phase and morphology individually influence the cloud radiative effect. Thus, this thesis investigates the relationships between the cloud phase, MCC organization, cell size, and differences regarding the cloud-radiative effect.
This thesis focuses on space-borne retrievals to achieve extensive temporal and spatial coverage. The liDAR-raDAR (DARDAR) version 2 product collocates two active and one passive satellite: CloudSat, Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO), and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). The cloud phase of DARDAR is vertically integrated to establish a single cloud phase at each data point. The MCC classification data set based on the liquid water path (LWP) of MODIS scenes is collocated with the DARDAR product to determine the MCC organization. Cell-size statistics of both MCC clouds are obtained using a marker-based image segmentation method on MODIS reflectance scenes. In addition, based on MODIS reflectance scenes, a convolutional neural network (CNN) is developed to classify open and closed MCC scenes to avoid missing mature MPCs with a low LWP.
The first part of this thesis explores the relationships between cloud phase, morphology, and cloud albedo in the Southern Ocean (SO). At a given cloud-top temperature (CTT), seasonal changes in the mixed-phase fraction, defined as the number of MPCs divided by the sum of MPC and supercooled liquid cloud (SLC) pixels, are stronger than the morphological changes. Therefore, external factors seem to influence these changes instead of morphology. The dependence of cloud phase on cloud-top height (CTH) is more substantial than on CTT in clouds with CTHs below 2.5 km. The previously observed acceleration of closed-to-open transition in MPCs, known as preconditioning, is not the primary driver of climatological cloud morphology statistics in the SO. The morphological differences in cloud albedo are more pronounced in SLCs than in MPCs. This change in albedo alters the cloud radiative effect in the SO by 21Wm−2 to 39Wm−2 depending onseason and cloud phase.
Open and closed MCC clouds exhibit larger equivalent cell diameters in the MPCs than in SLCs in austral summer, whereas, in austral winter, the SLCs are larger. The cell’s aspect ratio accounts for varying CTHs. Closed cells have smaller aspect ratios than open cells, so their cell diameter is smaller, independent of CTH. While the seasonal differences in closed cells are due to changes in CTH, the seasonal aspect ratio differences in open cells are mainly caused by MPCs. With increasing aspect ratios, the cloud albedo decreases in both open and closed MCC clouds, with the most substantial decrease in open MPCs clouds. This leads to cloud-radiative changes of 60 - 75Wm−2 in the SO, depending on cloud phase and aspect ratio.
The established CNN exhibits a good accuracy of 80.6%, with even higher accuracies in the Open (85.5%) and Closed (87.3%) categories. The global MCC climatology based on the CNN generally agrees well with previous MCC distributions. The most notable difference occurs in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) in boreal winter, with a higher occurrence frequency of closed and open MCC clouds. This might indicate missing MPCs in previous studies based on the LWP and some restricted to warm cloud scenes. Thus, the developed CNN seems to better represent the different morphologies in MPCs than in previous classifications.
In conclusion, this thesis shows that understanding the dependencies of cloud phase, cloud morphology, and cell size is important to enhance predictions of the cloud-radiative effect and thus, it is important to evaluate how cloud phase, cloud morphology, and cellsize change in a warming climate.
Die nachfolgende Dissertation wurde an der Goethe-Universität Frankfurt am Institut für Geowissenschaften (FB 11) in der Arbeitsgruppe Kristallographie und Mineralogie (AG Winkler) verfasst. Die Betreuung der hier durchgeführten Arbeiten erfolgte hauptsächlich durch Prof. B. Winkler in Zusammenarbeit mit Dr. L. Bayarjargal, PD Dr. E. Haussühl und PD Dr. V. Vinograd. Bei dem vorliegenden Manuskript handelt es sich um eine kumulative bzw. publikationsbasierte Dissertation, welche die Forschungsergebnisse verschiedener bereits veröffentlichter wissenschaftlicher Fachartikel zusammenfasst.
Die Arbeit beschreibt verschiedene Synthesen und Untersuchungen an Carbonaten und teilt sich im Wesentlichen in zwei Abschnitte. Zum einen wurden Experimente mit Carbonaten bei Extrembedingungen bzw. unter hohen Drücken und hohen Temperaturen durchgeführt, wie sie auch im Inneren der Erde zu finden sind. Im zweiten Teil wurden Carbonate bei Raumbedingungen synthetisiert und der Einbau von Seltenerdelementen untersucht. Grundsätzlich werden jedoch in beiden Teilen dieser Arbeit die Strukturen und Eigenschaften verschiedener Carbonate und eine mögliche Kationensubstitution bzw. die Synthese isostruktureller Verbindungen erforscht.
Knowledge about the initial tectonic and depositional dynamics, as well as the influence of early rifting on climate and environmental evolution remains speculative to a large extent, because sediments are usually deeply buried. Within the East African Rift System, inversion tectonics uplifted a few of these successions to the surface hence presenting rare windows into the pre-rift depositional history. One such example, an exceptional 700 m long and up to 60 m high fresh road cut provided the opportunity to study in detail initial rift successions of the southern Albertine Rift (Western Uganda). This focusses on the basal and poorly known Middle to Late Miocene in order to unravel the climatic, environmental, hydrological and tectonic evolution of the initial Albertine Rift. A large and robust multi-proxy dataset was gathered comprising 169 m of stratigraphic thickness, which spans from 14.5 to 4.9 Ma according to a revised lithostratigraphic model. Fieldwork comprised logging of the sedimentary record, spectral gamma ray, magnetic susceptibility and 2D wall mapping with photomosaics. Additionally, the sections were sampled for bulk mineral and clay mineral analysis. The succession exposes a suite of lithofacies and architectural elements detailing the evolution of a fluvio-lacustrine system. Five depositional environments were identified which show an overall back-stepping trend from an alluvial plain to a delta plain and finally palustrine/shallow lacustrine conditions. Mesoscale base-level cycles, preservation potential of architectural elements, and stacking pattern exhibit limited accommodation space. However, it increases over time. This overall trend indicates increasing tectonic subsidence, which can be explained by flexural downwarp within the pre-rift phase and in the upper part grading into fault-controlled crustal extension of the syn-rift phase, which more and more disrupted a large-scale river system. From the Middle Miocene up to the early Pliocene, this study revealed that palaeoclimate trends become marked by increasing and more fluctuating Th concentrations, loss of feldspar, intercalated lenses of hydroxosulphate minerals, and a shift from smectite-dominated to kaolinite-dominated clays. These signals are all interpreted as detrital except for the hydroxosulphates, and they mirror the increasing intensity of chemical weathering and stripping of soils in the catchment. A trend towards increasing humidity is supported by an increase in lacustrine sediment facies and a lake-level rise. Nevertheless, intercalation of hydroxosulphate, ferricretes and pedogenised horizons prove ongoing seasonality and dry intervals. Finally, based on a revised stratigraphic model a sequence stratigraphic correlation of the outcrop's depositional cycles with basin-scale cycles is presented. According to these cycles, transition from the pre-rift to the syn-rift stage is marked by an unconformity and a tectonic pulse in the latest Miocene. However, the response of fluvial supply, the depositional system as well as climate conditions are less punctuated and characterised by gradual trends and temporal delays. The long pre-rift phase (ca 10 Myr) and the gradual transition to the syn-rift phase is in accordance with the active rifting model, which is based on thermal thinning of the lithosphere by asthenospheric upwelling.
Driven by globalization, urbanization and climate change, the distribution range of invasive vector species has expanded to previously colder ecoregions. To reduce health-threatening impacts on humans, insect vectors are extensively studied. Population genomics can reveal the genomic basis of adaptation and help to identify emerging trends of vector expansion. By applying whole genome analyses and genotype-environment associations to populations of the main dengue vector Aedes aegypti, sampled along an altitudinal gradient in Nepal (200–1300 m), we identify putatively adaptive traits and describe the species' genomic footprint of climate adaptation to colder ecoregions. We found two differentiated clusters with significantly different allele frequencies in genes associated to climate adaptation between the highland population (1300 m) and all other lowland populations (≤800 m). We revealed nonsynonymous mutations in 13 of the candidate genes associated to either altitude, precipitation or cold tolerance and identified an isolation-by-environment differentiation pattern. Other than the expected gradual differentiation along the altitudinal gradient, our results reveal a distinct genomic differentiation of the highland population. Local high-altitude adaptation could be one explanation of the population's phenotypic cold tolerance. Carrying alleles relevant for survival under colder climate increases the likelihood of this highland population to a worldwide expansion into other colder ecoregions.
Background: Driven by globalization, urbanization and climate change, the distribution range of invasive vector species has expanded to previously colder ecoregions. To reduce health-threatening impacts on humans, insect vectors are extensively studied. Population genomics can reveal the genomic basis of adaptation and help to identify emerging trends of vector expansion.
Results: By applying whole genome analyses and genotype-environment associations to populations of the main dengue vector Ae. aegypti, sampled along an altitudinal temperature gradient in Nepal (200- 1300m), we identify adaptive traits and describe the species’ genomic footprint of climate adaptation to colder ecoregions. We found two clusters of differentiation with significantly different allele frequencies in genes associated to climate adaptation between the highland population (1300m) and all other lowland populations (≤ 800 m). We revealed non-synonymous mutations in 13 of the candidate genes associated to either altitude, precipitation or cold tolerance and identified an isolation-by-environment differentiation pattern.
Conclusion: Other than the expected gradual differentiation along the altitudinal gradient, our results reveal a distinct genomic differentiation of the highland population. This finding either indicates a differential invasion history to Nepal or local high-altitude adaptation explaining the population’s phenotypic cold tolerance. In any case, this highland population can be assumed to carry pre-adapted alleles relevant for the species’ invasion into colder ecoregions worldwide that way expanding their climate niche.
Herein, the high-pressure/high-temperature synthesis (11 GPa, 650 °C) of Tb3B10O17(OH)5 in a modified Walker-type multianvil device is presented. The structure of this rare-earth borate was determined by single-crystal X-ray diffraction methods and was found to crystallize orthorhombically in the space group Pmn21 (no. 31) with the unit cell parameters a = 16.2527(4), b = 4.4373(1), and c = 8.8174(2) Å. The new compound was further characterized using infrared spectroscopy, energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy, second harmonic generation (SHG) measurements, and temperature-dependent X-ray powder diffraction. Tb3B10O17(OH)5 decomposes to β-Tb(BO2)3 at temperatures higher than 460 °C. With increasing temperatures, the formation of μ-TbBO3 was observed, which transforms to π-TbBO3 upon cooling.