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Institute
TechQuartier to boost the start-up scene in Frankfurt am Main : interview with Sebastian Schäfer
(2017)
Interview with Sebastian Schäfer, Managing Director TechQuartier, Frankfurt
Interview with Hauke Stars, Member of the Executive Board Deutsche Börse AG
THE PRICE-TO-EARNINGS (P/E) RATIO IS ONE OF THE MOST IMPORTANT METRICS FOR VALUING FIRMS. UNFORTUNATELY, INTERPRETATIONS OF HIGH-GROWTH FIRMS’ P/E RATIOS CAN BE CHALLENGING, BECAUSE THEY FREQUENTLY EXHIBIT EITHER EXTREMELY HIGH OR NEGATIVE VALUES. WE SHOW THAT THE USE OF CUSTOMER METRICS ALLOWS FOR BETTER INTERPRETING THESE P/E RATIOS, THAT IMPROVEMENTS IN CUSTOMER METRICS HAVE NON-INTUITIVE AND SURPRISING EFFECTS ON THE P/E RATIO, AND THAT OUR NEW MODEL BETTER PREDICTS FUTURE P/E RATIOS THAN EXISTING MODELS.
DESPITE AMPLE EVIDENCE THAT CUSTOMERS EXHIBIT HIGHER DISCOUNT RATES THAN FIRMS, IT IS NOT CLEAR HOW DIFFERENCES IN DISCOUNT RATES AFFECT OPTIMAL PRICES, PROFITS, AND WELFARE OF COMPLEMENTARY PRODUCTS (WHICH COULD BE GOODS OR SERVICES). WE SHOW FOR COMPLEMENTARY PROUCTS THAT HIGHER DISCOUNT RATES OF CUSTOMERS DO NOT INCREASE PROFIT OR CONSUMER SURPLUS. FIRMS, INCLUDING BANKS, WOULD BE ADVISED TO SEEK TO REDUCE EXCESSIVE DISCOUNT RATES AMONG CONSUMERS.
UNDERSTANDING THE COMPETITIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR DIGITAL CONSUMER ATTENTION IS CRUCIAL FOR BANKS’ STRATEGIC ACTIONS. THEREFORE, BANKS NEED TO DETERMINE THE MARKET THEY COMPETE FOR, THEIR SUCCESS ON THIS MARKET, AND WHO THEY COMPETE WITH FOR CONSUMER ATTENTION. USING ORGANIC SEARCH ENGINE DATA, WE PROPOSE A NEW APPROACH TO (I) DEFINE THE DIGITAL MARKET, (II) IDENTIFY THE PLAYERS IN THE MARKET, (III) ESTIMATE THE DISTRIBUTION OF DIGITAL CONSUMER ATTENTION ACROSS BANKS, AND (IV) UNCOVER THE COMPETITIVE MARKET STRUCTURE FOR THE ONLINE RETAIL BANKING MARKET IN GERMANY.
STUDIES HAVE FOCUSED ON INNOVATIONS IN VARIOUS CONTEXTS BUT LARGELY EXCLUDED FINANCIAL INNOVATIONS, DESPITE THEIR NOTABLE IMPORTANCE. THIS STUDY ANALYZES THE TYPES OF FINANCIAL INNOVATIONS BY MAJOR BANKS AND THEIR PAYOFFS. THE RESULTS INDICATE THAT SECURITY AND CREDIT INSTRUMENTS CONSTITUTE THE MOST COMMON FINANCIAL INNOVATIONS. THE AVERAGE RETURNS TO A FINANCIAL INNOVATION ARE $146 MILLION. IN ADDITION, RADICALNESS AND FINANCIAL RISKINESS INCREASE THE RETURNS, WHEREAS COMPLEXITY DECREASES THEM.
RECENTLY, PASSIVE ETFS AND INDEX FUNDS HAVE BECOME POPULAR AMONG INDIVIDUAL INVESTORS. IN OUR STUDY, WE INVESTIGATE WHETHER INDIVIDUAL INVESTORS BENEFIT FROM USING THEM. WITH DATA FROM ONE OF THE LARGEST BROKERAGES IN GERMANY, WE FIND THAT INDIVIDUAL INVESTORS WORSEN THEIR PORTFOLIO PERFORMANCE AFTER USING THESE PRODUCTS IN COMPARISON TO NON-USERS. SINCE THESE SECURITIES MAKE MARKET TIMING EASIER, FURTHER ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE DECREASE IN USERS’ PORTFOLIO PERFORMANCE IS PRIMARILY DUE TO BAD MARKET TIMING.
THIS STUDY INVESTIGATES WHAT HAPPENS WHEN RETAIL CUSTOMERS ARE OFFERED FREE AND UNBIASED ADVICE. USING A LARGE FIELD EXPERIMENT IT SHOWS THAT THOSE WHO ACCEPT THE OFFER (5%) ARE MORE LIKELY TO BE MALE, OLDER, WEALTHIER, MORE EXPERIENCED AND MORE FINANCIALLY SOPHISTICATED. HOWEVER, EVEN THOUGH THE ADVICE WOULD HAVE HELPED, IT ACTUALLY LARGELY FAILED TO HELP BECAUSE THE CUSTOMERS DID NOT LISTEN TO IT. OVERALL, OUR RESULTS SUGGEST THAT THE MERE AVAILABILITY OF UNBIASED FINANCIAL ADVICE IS A NECESSARY BUT NOT SUFFICIENT CONDITION FOR BENEFITING RETAIL CUSTOMERS.
WE DECOMPOSE INDIVIDUAL INVESTORS’ PORTFOLIO RETURNS INTO PASSIVE BENCHMARK RETURNS, ACTIVE SECURITY SELECTION RETURNS, AND ACTIVE MARKET TIMING RETURNS. FOR THE AVERAGE INVESTOR IN OUR SAMPLE, PASSIVE BENCHMARK RETURNS EXPLAIN SOME 40% OF VARIATION IN LONGITUDINAL PORTFOLIO RETURNS, SECURITY SELECTION EXPLAINS AN ADDITIONAL 50%, AND MARKET TIMING PLAYS ONLY A MINOR ROLE. THIS STANDS IN STARK CONTRAST TO EARLIER RESULTS ON INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS WHERE PASSIVE BENCHMARK RETURNS (REFLECTING DIFFERENT ASSET ALLOCATION STRATEGIES) EXPLAIN OVER 90%. THE PREDOMINANCE OF SECURITY SELECTION COMES AT A COST FOR INDIVIDUAL INVESTORS: INVESTORS FROM THE HIGHEST QUINTILE IN TERMS OF SECURITY SELECTION ACTIVITY UNDERPERFORM THEIR PEERS FROM THE LOWEST QUINTILE BY MORE THAN 10 PERCENTAGE POINTS PER YEAR. TRANSACTION COSTS EXPLAIN ONLY PART OF THIS UNDERPERFORMANCE. THE LESS INVESTORS DIVERSIFY, THE WORSE THEY DO.
WE STUDY WHETHER PRIVATE EQUITY (PE) FIRMS HAVE A POSITIVE IMPACT ON THE FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE OF THEIR GERMAN PORTFOLIO COMPANIES BEFORE AND AFTER THE IPO. OUR EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS IS BASED ON A UNIQUE AND LARGE DATASET OF ALL IPOS IN GERMANY BETWEEN 2000 AND 2007. WE FIND THAT PE FIRMS SELECT COMPANIES WITH BELOW AVERAGE PERFORMANCE AND THEN IMPROVE PERFORMANCE SUBSTANTIALLY UNTIL THE IPO DATE AND IN MANY CASES ALSO THEREAFTER. THIS IMPLIES THAT PE FIRMS FILL A VOID ALSO IN GERMAN FINANCIAL MARKETS AND THAT THEY WILL ALSO PLAY A FUTURE ROLE IN FINANCING GERMAN ENTERPRISES.
INDIVIDUAL INVESTORS ARE REPEATEDLY FOUND TO UNDERPERFORM RELATIVE TO A MARKET INDEX. BESIDES EXCESSIVE TRADING, LITTLE IS KNOWN WHEN RETAIL INVESTORS COLLECTIVELY LOSE. THIS ARTICLE SHOWS THAT TRADING IN SHORT-SELLING CONSTRAINED, VOLATILE STOCKS AROUND EARNINGS ANNOUNCEMENTS IS COSTLY TO INDIVIDUAL INVESTORS. THE EFFECT IS PARTICULARLY PRONOUNCED FOR LESS SOPHISTICATED INVESTORS.
THE FINANCIAL SERVICES INDUSTRY IS OPERATING IN HIGHLY VOLATILE MARKETS.
TO CONSIDER THE IMPACT OF UNCERTAIN MARKET ENVIRONMENTS ON INAND OUTSOURCING DECISIONS, WE INTRODUCE A REAL OPTIONS BASED DECISION SUPPORT MODEL. WE APPLY THE MODEL TO AN IT INFRASTRUCTURE OUTSOURCING DECISION AND DETERMINE - BASED ON COST SAVINGS RESULTING FROM OUTSOURCING AND OPTION VALUES ACCOUNTING FOR UNCERTAINTY - DIFFERENT “TRIGGER” OUTPUT VOLUMES WHICH INDICATE IF IN- OR OUTSOURCING IS PREFERABLE. FINALLY WE SHOW THAT THE MODEL CAN ALSO BE TRANSFERRED TO SOURCING DECISIONS OF TRANSACTION BASED BUSINESS PROCESSES LIKE CLEARING AND SETTLEMENT OF SECURITIES.
ROBO-ADVICE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DISRUPT THE MARKET FOR FINANCIAL ADVICE. ALGORITHMS ALREADY DELIVER LOW-COST, AUTOMATIC, AND STANDARDIZED INVESTMENT GUIDANCE TO CLIENTS FROM ALL WEALTH LEVELS AND ESPECIALLY TO THOSE PREVIOUSLY EXCLUDED FROM PERSONAL FACE-TO-FACE ADVICE. TODAY’S OFFERINGS CONCENTRATE ON CONVENIENCE AND COMPLEXITY REDUCTION, COUPLED WITH PASSIVE INVESTMENTS. THE NEXT STEP WILL ADVANCE ALGORITHMS TO DELIVER TAILOR-MADE DECISION SUPPORT FOR THE GROWING NUMBER OF SELF-DIRECTED INVESTORS. THIS ARTICLE PRESENTS REAL-LIFE EMPIRICAL RESULTS ON THE INTRODUCTION OF A PORTFOLIO OPTIMIZATION TOOL THAT GUIDES BROKERAGE CLIENTS TOWARDS INDIVIDUAL OPTIMAL PORTFOLIOS.
TO DERIVE OPTIMAL ORDER EXECUTION STRATEGIES THAT STRIVE TO MINIMIZE TRANSACTION COSTS, INVESTORS AS WELL AS AUTOMATED TRADING ENGINES MUST BE ABLE TO ANTICIPATE CHANGES IN THE AVAILABLE MARKET LIQUIDITY. BASED ON AN EVENT STUDY ON THE LIQUIDITY IMPACT OF AD-HOC DISCLOSURES, WE PROPOSE A NOVEL IT ARTIFACT THAT ALLOWS AUTOMATED TRADING ENGINES TO APPROPRIATELY REACT TO NEWS-RELATED LIQUIDITY SHOCKS. FURTHERMORE, WE PROVIDE A SIMULATIONBASED EVALUATION THAT SHOWS ITS ECONOMIC RELEVANCE.
THE FINANCIAL TRANSACTION TAX (FTT) IMPLEMENTATION IN FRANCE IN MID 2012 IS CONSIDERED A LANDMARK DEVELOPMENT WITHIN SECURITIES MARKETS REGULATION. HOWEVER, UNTIL TODAY, THE CONTROVERSY ABOUT POSSIBLE DRAWBACKS AND PRACTICAL APPLICABILITY HAS NOT REACHED A CONCLUSION AND CONSEQUENCES FOR MARKET QUALITY ARE YET TO BE THOROUGHLY ASSESSED. IN THIS LIGHT, A RIGOROUS EVALUATION OF THE FTT’S EFFECT ON MARKET QUALITY IS HIGHLY DESIRABLE.
DIGITAL CURRENCIES ARE A GLOBALLY SPREADING PHENOMENON THAT IS FREQUENTLY AND PROMINENTLY ADDRESSED BY MEDIA, POLITICS AND ACADEMIA. WE AIM AT GIVING EMPIRICAL INSIGHTS ON WHETHER USERS’ INTEREST REGARDING DIGITAL CURRENCIES IS DRIVEN BY ITS APPEAL AS AN ASSET OR ITS UTILITY AS A CURRENCY. BASED ON OUR EVALUATION, WE FIND STRONG INDICATIONS THAT ESPECIALLY UNINFORMED USERS APPROACHING BITCOIN ARE NOT PRIMARILY INTERESTED IN AN ALTERNATIVE TRANSACTION SYSTEM, BUT SEEK TO PARTICIPATE IN AN ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENT VEHICLE.
THE SPEED OF TRADING, AND IN PARTICULAR HIGH-FREQUENCY TRADING, IS ONE OF THE MOSTLY DEBATED ISSUES AMONG REGULATORS AND MARKET PARTICIPANTS. NEVERTHELESS, SEVERAL ACADEMIC STUDIES HAVE SHOWN THAT HIGH-FREQUENCY TRADERS USING LOW-LATENCY INFRASTRUCTURE PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIQUIDITY THEREBY REDUCING TRANSACTION COSTS IN ORDINARY TIMES OF TRADING. WE STUDY WHETHER HIGH-FREQUENCY TRADERS ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO THE RECONSTRUCTION OF THE ORDER BOOK AFTER LIQUIDITY SHOCKS CAUSED BY LARGE ORDERS.
NOWADAYS, ORGANIZATIONS ARE INCREASINGLY RELYING ON THIRD PARTIES TO SUPPLY VITAL IT SERVICES, WITH THE COMMUNICATION BEING PREDOMINATELY CONDUCTED VIA THE INTERNET. THIS, HOWEVER, POTENTIALLY EXHIBITS SENSITIVE BUSINESS INFORMATION TO OUTSIDERS. IN THIS ARTICLE, WE SHOW WHICH UNDESIRED SIDE EFFECTS STATE-OFTHE ART COUNTER MEASURES MAY HAVE.
CURRENTLY THE REALIZATION OF SERVICE-ORIENTED ARCHITECTURE (SOA) IMPLEMENTATION IN THE GERMAN BANKING INDUSTRY VARIES, WHEREAS SOME ARE IN THE ADOPTION PHASE AND SOME ARE ALREADY IN THE SOA OPERATION PHASE. THIS ARTICLE FOCUSES ON SPECIFIC IMPLICATIONS CONCERNING THE SOA READINESS AND THE SOA MATURITY OF GERMAN BANKS AS WELL AS THE ROLE OF SOA IN THE CONTEXT OF M&A SCENARIOS.
A RECENT SURVEY SHOWS THE IMPORTANCE OF DEDICATED GOVERNANCE STRATEGIES FOR MANAGING SERVICE-ORIENTED ARCHITECTURES IN BANKS. IN ORDER TO IMPLEMENT NOVEL GOVERNANCE STRATEGIES, THE EXISTING IT ORGANIZATION HAS TO BE ADAPTED ACCORDINGLY. THIS REPORT PRESENTS ENHANCEMENTS OF CLASSICAL IT ORGANIZATIONS.
WHILE CLOUD MARKETS PROMISE UNLIMITED RESOURCE SUPPLIES, INDIVIDUAL PROVIDERS MIGHT BE UNABLE TO OFFER SUFFICIENT PHYSICAL CAPACITY TO SERVE LARGE CUSTOMERS. A SOLUTION IS TO FORM CLOUD COLLABORATIONS, IN WHICH MULTIPLE CLOUD PROVIDERS UNITE FORCES IN ORDER TO CONJOINTLY OFFER CAPACITIES WITHIN CLOUD MARKETS. QUALITY OF SERVICE (QOS) AND SECURITY ASPECTS ARE THE PRIMARY CONSIDERATIONS IN BUILDING SUCH COLLABORATIONS. THIS RESEARCH REPORT PRESENTS A CORRESPONDING OPTIMIZATION APPROACH FOR THE SELECTION OF COLLABORATIVE CLOUD PROVIDERS UNDER CONSIDERATION OF FULFILLMENT OF CLOUD USERS’ QOS AND SECURITY REQUIREMENTS.
OVER THE LAST DECADE, IT PROVISIONING VIA CLOUDS HAS BECOME A COMMON PRACTICE. MEANWHILE, COMPLEX SOFTWARE SERVICES WITH STRINGENT QUALITY OF SERVICE (QOS) REQUIREMENTS ARE DELIVERED BY CLOUD PROVIDERS OVER THE INTERNET. TO ACHIEVE A COST-EFFICIENT AND QOS-AWARE SERVICE PROVISIONING, THE SELECTION OF APPROPRIATE CLOUD RESOURCES IS A HIGHLY IMPORTANT TASK. IN THIS REPORT, WE OFFER CONCEPTS AND TOOLS TO SERVICE PROVIDERS FOR AN ACCELERATED RESOURCE SELECTION IN LARGE ENVIRONMENTS.
IN COMPARISON TO TRADITIONAL IT PARADIGMS, CLOUD COMPUTING ENABLES TO OBTAIN DESIRED COMPUTING RESOURCES ON-DEMAND WITHOUT REQUIRING LARGE, UPFRONT INVESTMENTS AND TO DYNAMICALLY ADAPT AND SCALE THESE RESOURCES TO VARYING BUSINESS REQUIREMENTS. HOWEVER, CLOUD COMPUTING IS NOT A PANACEA. THIS DRIVES THE NEED TO EXAMINE THE SPECIFIC REASONS AND REQUIREMENTS FOR CLOUD ADOPTION IN PRACTICE. HERE, WE FOLLOW AN ANALYTICAL APPROACH TO EXAMINE CLOUD ADOPTION BY CONDUCTING A LITERATURE SURVEY AND AN EMPIRICAL STUDY.
CLOUDS ARE INCREASINGLY BEING USED FOR THE DELIVERY OF COMPLEX SOFTWARE SERVICES WITH STRINGENT QUALITY OF SERVICE (QOS) DEMANDS. IN ORDER TO ACHIEVE COST-EFFICIENT PROVISION THROUGH THE UNDERLYING INFRASTRUCTURE, A SUITABLE SELECTION OF CLOUD DATA CENTERS IS REQUIRED. THIS REPORT PRESENTS A CORRESPONDING OPTIMIZATION APPROACH, WHICH IS SUITABLE FOR BOTH PRIVATE AND PUBLIC CLOUD SETTINGS.
TODAY’S CLOUD CONSUMERS HAVE VERY LIMITED MEANS FOR VERIFYING THE COMPLIANCE TO PRIOR NEGOTIATED SLAS INDEPENDENTLY FROM A CLOUD PROVIDER. IN ORDER TO OBTAIN RELIABLE MEANS FOR SERVICE MONITORING, WE PROPOSE AN INTERMEDIARY-BASED SOLUTION IN CONJUNCTION WITH DIFFERENT STRATEGIES FOR ROBUST CLOUD MONITOR PLACEMENT.
THE RECENT EVOLUTION OF SMART CONTRACTS AND THEIR FAST ADOPTION ALLOW TO RETHINK PROCESSES AND TO CHALLENGE TRADITIONAL STRUCTURES. THEREFORE, WE INTRODUCE THE UNDERLYING TECHNOLOGY AND RECENT IMPROVEMENTS. FURTHER, WE PROVIDE AN OVERVIEW OF HOW THE INSURANCE SECTOR MAY BE AFFECTED BY BLOCKCHAIN TECHNOLOGY AND SMART CONTRACTS. WE SHOW AN EXEMPLARY USE CASE AND EMPHASIZE CURRENT CHALLENGES AND LIMITATIONS IN THIS AREA.