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Stockpiling neuraminidase inhibitors (NAIs) such as oseltamivir and zanamivir is part of a global effort to be prepared for an influenza pandemic. However, the contribution of NAIs for treatment and prevention of influenza and its complications is largely debatable. Here, we developed a transparent mathematical modelling setting to analyse the impact of NAIs on influenza disease at within-host and population level. Analytical and simulation results indicate that even assuming unrealistically high efficacies for NAIs, drug intake starting on the onset of symptoms has a negligible effect on an individual's viral load and symptoms score. Increasing NAIs doses does not provide a better outcome as is generally believed. Considering Tamiflu's pandemic regimen for prophylaxis, different multiscale simulation scenarios reveal modest reductions in epidemic size despite high investments in stockpiling. Our results question the use of NAIs in general to treat influenza as well as the respective stockpiling by regulatory authorities.
Neuraminidase inhibitors in influenza treatment and prevention – is it time to call it a day?
(2018)
Stockpiling neuraminidase inhibitors (NAIs) such as oseltamivir and zanamivir is part of a global effort to be prepared for an influenza pandemic. However, the contribution of NAIs for the treatment and prevention of influenza and its complications is largely debatable due to constraints in the ability to control for confounders and to explore unobserved areas of the drug effects. For this study, we used a mathematical model of influenza infection which allowed transparent analyses. The model recreated the oseltamivir effects and indicated that: (i) the efficacy was limited by design, (ii) a 99% efficacy could be achieved by using high drug doses (however, taking high doses of drug 48 h post-infection could only yield a maximum of 1.6-day reduction in the time to symptom alleviation), and (iii) contributions of oseltamivir to epidemic control could be high, but were observed only in fragile settings. In a typical influenza infection, NAIs’ efficacy is inherently not high, and even if their efficacy is improved, the effect can be negligible in practice.
Adjuvanted influenza vaccines constitute a key element towards inducing neutralizing antibody responses in populations with reduced responsiveness, such as infants and elderly subjects, as well as in devising antigen-sparing strategies. In particular, squalene-containing adjuvants have been observed to induce enhanced antibody responses, as well as having an influence on cross-reactive immunity. To explore the effects of adjuvanted vaccine formulations on antibody response and their relation to protein-specific immunity, we propose different mathematical models of antibody production dynamics in response to influenza vaccination. Data from ferrets immunized with commercial H1N1pdm09 vaccine antigen alone or formulated with different adjuvants was instrumental to adjust model parameters. While the affinity maturation process complexity is abridged, the proposed model is able to recapitulate the essential features of the observed dynamics. Our numerical results suggest that there exists a qualitative shift in protein-specific antibody response, with enhanced production of antibodies targeting the NA protein in adjuvanted versus non-adjuvanted formulations, in conjunction with a protein-independent boost that is over one order of magnitude larger for squalene-containing adjuvants. Furthermore, simulations predict that vaccines formulated with squalene-containing adjuvants are able to induce sustained antibody titers in a robust way, with little impact of the time interval between immunizations.
Motivation: Partial differential equations (PDEs) is a well-established and powerful tool to simulate multi-cellular biological systems. However, available free tools for validation against data are not established. The PDEparams module provides flexible functionality in Python for parameter estimation in PDE models.
Results: The PDEparams module provides a flexible interface and readily accommodates different parameter analysis tools in PDE models such as computation of likelihood profiles, and parametric boot-strapping, along with direct visualisation of the results. To our knowledge, it is the first open, freely available tool for parameter fitting of PDE models.
Availability and implementation: The PDEparams module is distributed under the MIT license. The source code, usage instructions and step-by-step examples are freely available on GitHub at github.com/systemsmedicine/PDE_params.
We propose a generalized modeling framework for the kinetic mechanisms of transcriptional riboswitches. The formalism accommodates time-dependent transcription rates and changes of metabolite concentration and permits incorporation of variations in transcription rate depending on transcript length. We derive explicit analytical expressions for the fraction of transcripts that determine repression or activation of gene expression, pause site location and its slowing down of transcription for the case of the (2’dG)-sensing riboswitch from Mesoplasma florum. Our modeling challenges the current view on the exclusive importance of metabolite binding to transcripts containing only the aptamer domain. Numerical simulations of transcription proceeding in a continuous manner under time-dependent changes of metabolite concentration further suggest that rapid modulations in concentration result in a reduced dynamic range for riboswitch function regardless of transcription rate, while a combination of slow modulations and small transcription rates ensures a wide range of finely tuneable regulatory outcomes.
Criticality meets learning : criticality signatures in a self-organizing recurrent neural network
(2017)
Many experiments have suggested that the brain operates close to a critical state, based on signatures of criticality such as power-law distributed neuronal avalanches. In neural network models, criticality is a dynamical state that maximizes information processing capacities, e.g. sensitivity to input, dynamical range and storage capacity, which makes it a favorable candidate state for brain function. Although models that self-organize towards a critical state have been proposed, the relation between criticality signatures and learning is still unclear. Here, we investigate signatures of criticality in a self-organizing recurrent neural network (SORN). Investigating criticality in the SORN is of particular interest because it has not been developed to show criticality. Instead, the SORN has been shown to exhibit spatio-temporal pattern learning through a combination of neural plasticity mechanisms and it reproduces a number of biological findings on neural variability and the statistics and fluctuations of synaptic efficacies. We show that, after a transient, the SORN spontaneously self-organizes into a dynamical state that shows criticality signatures comparable to those found in experiments. The plasticity mechanisms are necessary to attain that dynamical state, but not to maintain it. Furthermore, onset of external input transiently changes the slope of the avalanche distributions – matching recent experimental findings. Interestingly, the membrane noise level necessary for the occurrence of the criticality signatures reduces the model’s performance in simple learning tasks. Overall, our work shows that the biologically inspired plasticity and homeostasis mechanisms responsible for the SORN’s spatio-temporal learning abilities can give rise to criticality signatures in its activity when driven by random input, but these break down under the structured input of short repeating sequences.
A primordial state of matter consisting of free quarks and gluons that existed in the early universe a few microseconds after the Big Bang is also expected to form in high-energy heavy-ion collisions. Determining the equation of state (EoS) of such a primordial matter is the ultimate goal of high-energy heavy-ion experiments. Here we use supervised learning with a deep convolutional neural network to identify the EoS employed in the relativistic hydrodynamic simulations of heavy ion collisions. High-level correlations of particle spectra in transverse momentum and azimuthal angle learned by the network act as an effective EoS-meter in deciphering the nature of the phase transition in quantum chromodynamics. Such EoS-meter is model-independent and insensitive to other simulation inputs including the initial conditions for hydrodynamic simulations.
The state-of-the-art pattern recognition method in machine learning (deep convolution neural network) is used to identify the equation of state (EoS) employed in the relativistic hydrodynamic simulations of heavy ion collisions. High-level correlations of particle spectra in transverse momentum and azimuthal angle learned by the network act as an effective EoS-meter in deciphering the nature of the phase transition in QCD. The EoS-meter is model independent and insensitive to other simulation inputs including the initial conditions and shear viscosity for hydrodynamic simulations. Through this study we demonstrate that there is a traceable encoder of the dynamical information from the phase structure that survives the evolution and exists in the final snapshot of heavy ion collisions and one can exclusively and effectively decode these information from the highly complex final output with machine learning when traditional methods fail. Besides the deep neural network, the performance of traditional machine learning classifiers are also provided.
The scope of this Thesis is to understand the position dependency phenomenon of human visual perception. First, under the ecological assumption, meaning under the assumption that animals adapt to the statistical regularities of their environment, we study the consequences of the imaging on the local statistics of the input to the human visual system. Second, we model efficient representations of these statistics and their contribution to shape the properties of eye sensory neurons. Third, we model efficient representations of the semantic context of images and the correctness of different underneath geometrical assumptions on the statistics of images.
The efficient coding hypothesis posits that sensory systems are adapted to the regularities of their signal input in order to reduce redundancy in the resulting representations. It is therefore important to characterize the regularities of natural signals to gain insight into the processing of natural stimuli. While measurements of statistical regularity in vision have focused on photographic images of natural environments it has been much less investigated, how the specific imaging process embodied by the organism’s eye induces statistical dependencies on the natural input to the visual system. This has allowed using the convenient assumption that natural image data is homogeneous across the visual field. Here we give up on this assumption and show how the imaging process in a human eye model influences the local statistics of the natural input to the visual system across the entire visual field. ...
We study the kinetic and chemical equilibration in 'infinite' parton-hadron matter within the Parton-Hadron-String Dynamics transport approach, which is based on a dynamical quasiparticle model for partons matched to reproduce lattice-QCD results – including the partonic equation of state – in thermodynamic equilibrium. The 'infinite' matter is simulated within a cubic box with periodic boundary conditions initialized at different baryon density (or chemical potential) and energy density. The transition from initially pure partonic matter to hadronic degrees of freedom (or vice versa) occurs dynamically by interactions. Different thermody-namical distributions of the strongly-interacting quark-gluon plasma (sQGP) are addressed and discussed.