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The design of rainwater harvesting based gardens requires considering current climate but also climate change during the lifespan of the facility. The goal of this study is to present an approach for designing garden variants that can be safely supplied with harvested rainwater, taking into account climate change and adaptation measures. In addition, the study presents a methodology to quantify the effects of climate change on rainwater harvesting based gardening. Results of the study may not be accurate due to the assumptions made for climate projections and may need to be further refined. We used a tank flow model and an irrigation water model. Then we established three simple climate scenarios and analyzed the impact of climate change on harvested rain and horticulture production for a semi-arid region in northern Namibia. In the two climate scenarios with decreased precipitation and medium/high temperature increase; adaptation measures are required to avoid substantial decreases in horticulture production. The study found that the most promising adaptation measures to sustain yields and revenues are a more water efficient garden variant and an enlargement of the roof size. The proposed measures can partly or completely compensate the negative impacts of climate change.
Seven different instruments and measurement methods were used to examine the immersion freezing of bacterial ice nuclei from Snomax® (hereafter Snomax), a product containing ice-active protein complexes from non-viable Pseudomonas syringae bacteria. The experimental conditions were kept as similar as possible for the different measurements. Of the participating instruments, some examined droplets which had been made from suspensions directly, and the others examined droplets activated on previously generated Snomax particles, with particle diameters of mostly a few hundred nanometers and up to a few micrometers in some cases. Data were obtained in the temperature range from −2 to −38 °C, and it was found that all ice-active protein complexes were already activated above −12 °C. Droplets with different Snomax mass concentrations covering 10 orders of magnitude were examined. Some instruments had very short ice nucleation times down to below 1 s, while others had comparably slow cooling rates around 1 K min−1. Displaying data from the different instruments in terms of numbers of ice-active protein complexes per dry mass of Snomax, nm, showed that within their uncertainty, the data agree well with each other as well as to previously reported literature results. Two parameterizations were taken from literature for a direct comparison to our results, and these were a time-dependent approach based on a contact angle distribution (Niedermeier et al., 2014) and a modification of the parameterization presented in Hartmann et al. (2013) representing a time-independent approach. The agreement between these and the measured data were good; i.e., they agreed within a temperature range of 0.6 K or equivalently a range in nm of a factor of 2. From the results presented herein, we propose that Snomax, at least when carefully shared and prepared, is a suitable material to test and compare different instruments for their accuracy of measuring immersion freezing.
Modelling short-term variability in carbon and water exchange in a temperate Scots pine forest
(2015)
The vegetation–atmosphere carbon and water exchange at one particular site can strongly vary from year to year, and understanding this interannual variability in carbon and water exchange (IAVcw) is a critical factor in projecting future ecosystem changes. However, the mechanisms driving this IAVcw are not well understood. We used data on carbon and water fluxes from a multi-year eddy covariance study (1997–2009) in a Dutch Scots pine forest and forced a process-based ecosystem model (Lund–Potsdam–Jena General Ecosystem Simulator; LPJ-GUESS) with local data to, firstly, test whether the model can explain IAVcw and seasonal carbon and water exchange from direct environmental factors only. Initial model runs showed low correlations with estimated annual gross primary productivity (GPP) and annual actual evapotranspiration (AET), while monthly and daily fluxes showed high correlations. The model underestimated GPP and AET during winter and drought events. Secondly, we adapted the temperature inhibition function of photosynthesis to account for the observation that at this particular site, trees continue to assimilate at very low atmospheric temperatures (up to daily averages of −10 °C), resulting in a net carbon sink in winter. While we were able to improve daily and monthly simulations during winter by lowering the modelled minimum temperature threshold for photosynthesis, this did not increase explained IAVcw at the site. Thirdly, we implemented three alternative hypotheses concerning water uptake by plants in order to test which one best corresponds with the data. In particular, we analyse the effects during the 2003 heatwave. These simulations revealed a strong sensitivity of the modelled fluxes during dry and warm conditions, but no single formulation was consistently superior in reproducing the data for all timescales and the overall model–data match for IAVcw could not be improved. Most probably access to deep soil water leads to higher AET and GPP simulated during the heatwave of 2003. We conclude that photosynthesis at lower temperatures than assumed in most models can be important for winter carbon and water fluxes in pine forests. Furthermore, details of the model representations of water uptake, which are often overlooked, need further attention, and deep water access should be treated explicitly.
Modelling short-term variability in carbon and water exchange in a temperate Scots pine forest
(2015)
The vegetation–atmosphere carbon and water exchange at one particular site can strongly vary from year to year, and understanding this interannual variability in carbon and water exchange (IAVcw) is a critical factor in projecting future ecosystem changes. However, the mechanisms driving this IAVcw are not well understood. We used data on carbon and water fluxes from a multi-year eddy covariance study (1997–2009) in a Dutch Scots pine forest and forced a process-based ecosystem model (Lund–Potsdam–Jena General Ecosystem Simulator; LPJ-GUESS) with local data to, firstly, test whether the model can explain IAVcw and seasonal carbon and water exchange from direct environmental factors only. Initial model runs showed low correlations with estimated annual gross primary productivity (GPP) and annual actual evapotranspiration (AET), while monthly and daily fluxes showed high correlations. The model underestimated GPP and AET during winter and drought events. Secondly, we adapted the temperature inhibition function of photosynthesis to account for the observation that at this particular site, trees continue to assimilate at very low atmospheric temperatures (up to daily averages of −10 °C), resulting in a net carbon sink in winter. While we were able to improve daily and monthly simulations during winter by lowering the modelled minimum temperature threshold for photosynthesis, this did not increase explained IAVcw at the site. Thirdly, we implemented three alternative hypotheses concerning water uptake by plants in order to test which one best corresponds with the data. In particular, we analyse the effects during the 2003 heatwave. These simulations revealed a strong sensitivity of the modelled fluxes during dry and warm conditions, but no single formulation was consistently superior in reproducing the data for all timescales and the overall model–data match for IAVcw could not be improved. Most probably access to deep soil water leads to higher AET and GPP simulated during the heatwave of 2003. We conclude that photosynthesis at lower temperatures than assumed in most models can be important for winter carbon and water fluxes in pine forests. Furthermore, details of the model representations of water uptake, which are often overlooked, need further attention, and deep water access should be treated explicitly.
Derivation and characterization of a new filter for nonlinear high-dimensional data assimilation
(2015)
Data assimilation (DA) combines model forecasts with real-world observations to achieve an optimal estimate of the state of a dynamical system. The quality of predictions in nonlinear and chaotic systems such as atmospheric or oceanic circulation is strongly sensitive to the initial conditions. Therefore, beyond the consistent reconstruction of past states, a primary relevance of advanced DA methods concerns the proper model initialization. The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) and its deterministic variants, mostly square root filters such as the ensemble transform Kalman filter (ETKF), represent a popular alternative to variational DA schemes. They are applied in a wide range of research and operations. Their forecast step employs an ensemble integration that fully respects the nonlinear nature of the analyzed system. In the analysis step, they implicitly assume the prior state and observation errors to be Gaussian. Consequently, in nonlinear systems, the mean and covariance of the analysis ensemble are biased and these filters remain suboptimal. In contrast, the fully nonlinear, non-Gaussian particle filter (PF) relies on Bayes' theorem without further assumptions, which guarantees an exact asymptotic behavior. However, it is exposed to weight collapse, particularly in higher-dimensional settings, known as the curse of dimensionality.
This work presents a new method to obtain an analysis ensemble with mean and covariance that exactly match the corresponding Bayesian estimates. This is achieved by a deterministic matrix square root transformation of the forecast ensemble, and subsequently a suitable random rotation that significantly contributes to filter stability while preserving the required second-order statistics. The forecast step remains as in the ETKF. The algorithm, which is fairly easy to implement and computationally efficient, is referred to as the nonlinear ensemble transform filter (NETF). The limitation with respect to fully-nonlinear filtering is that the NETF only considers the mean and covariance of the Bayesian analysis density, neglecting higher-order moments.
The properties and performance of the proposed algorithm are investigated via a set of experiments. The results indicate that such a filter formulation can increase the analysis quality, even for relatively small ensemble sizes, compared to other ensemble filters in nonlinear, non-Gaussian scenarios. They also confirm that localization enhances the applicability of this PF-inspired scheme in larger-dimensional systems. Finally, the novel filter is coupled to a large-scale ocean general circulation model with a realistic observation scenario. The NETF remains stable with a small ensemble size and shows a consistent behavior. Additionally, its analyses exhibit low estimation errors, as revealed by a comparison with a free ensemble integration and the ETKF. The results confirm that, in principle, the filter can be applied successfully and as simple as the ETKF in high-dimensional problems. No further modifications are needed, even though the algorithm is only based on the particle weights. Thus, it is able to overcome the curse of dimensionality, even in deterministic systems. This proves that the NETF constitutes a promising and user-friendly method for nonlinear high-dimensional DA.
Barriereinseln und Nehrungshaken, geformt durch eine Kombination aus Wind, Wellen, Strömung und Küstenlängstransport gelten als geologisch junge und morphologisch hoch aktive Küstenbereiche und variieren häufig in Ursprung, Genese und Entwicklung. Bisherige Untersuchungen zur Stratigraphie dieser durch engräumige Fazieswechsel geprägten Sedimentationsräume basieren häufig allein auf Bohrungen. Daher sind die interne sedimentologische Struktur und die Prozesse, die zur Entwicklung von Barriereinseln und Nehrungshaken geführt haben, oftmals unzureichend untersucht.
Ziel der folgenden Studie war es, anhand hochauflösender Georadarmessungen (GPR) und Bohrungen die Entstehung und interne sedimentäre Architektur der Nehrungshaken von Sylt und Amrum zu rekonstruieren. Durch die Korrelation von Sediment- und Radarfazies konnten über den bisherigen Kenntnisstand hinaus wertvolle, sich ergänzende Informationen zur Geologie des oberflächennahen Untergrundes der Inseln Sylt und Amrum gewonnen werden. Auf dieser Grundlage wurden für den Süden Sylts, die Westküste von Amrum und den Norden Amrums stratigraphische Modelle entwickelt, die schematisch den sedimentologischen Aufbau, die geomorphologisch-geologische Genese und die am Aufbau beteiligten Prozesse zusammenfassen. Die Einordnung in einen absoluten Zeitrahmen wurde durch Datierungen (AMS Radiokohlenstoff-Methode, Aminosäure-Racemisierungs-Methode) ermöglicht.
Die Ergebnisse sind als Beispiel für die Heterogenität und Individualität von Nehrungshaken und Barriereinseln zu sehen. Es konnte gezeigt werden, dass Nehrungshaken hinsichtlich ihres Aufbaus, ihrer sedimentären Struktur sowie den Prozessen ihrer Entstehung sehr unterschiedlich sind.
Mit Ausnahme der heutigen Dünen zeigt die Stratigraphie der Ansatzzone des südlichen Nehrungshakens von Sylt an den zentralen Inselgeestkern südlich der Ortschaft Rantum insgesamt eine Vergröberungs-Sequenz von tonigem Mischwatt im Liegenden über Sandwatt bis zu den gröberen washover-Schichten im Hangenden. Eine Besonderheit und regionale Abweichung stellt die Stratigraphie bei Puan Klent/Thörnhörn dar. Dort wurde im Liegenden der Watt-Fazies ein fossiler Strandhaken nachgewiesen.
Die transgressive Sequenz der Ansatzzone des südlichen Nehrungshakens von Sylt bei Rantum auf Sylt ist kennzeichnend für eine landwärts gerichtete Wanderungsbewegung der Inselbarriere unter steigendem Meeresspiegel. Das Resultat des als „barrier rollover“ bezeichneten morphologischen Prozesses ist die allmähliche Erosion der westlichen Barrierefront. Das erodierte Sediment der Westküste wurde entweder durch overwash-Prozesse im rückwärtigen Inselbereich als washover fan abgelagert oder gelangte in den Küstenlängstransport, wurde zur Inselspitze transportiert und dort akkumuliert. Diese führte allmählich zum Wachstum und zur Progradation der südlichen Inselspitze (Hörnum Odde) in die sich südlich anschließende Tiderinne des Hörnum-Tiefs. Zahlreiche Erosionsdiskordanzen unterhalb des heutigen Meeresspiegels markieren ursprüngliche Inselspitzenendpositionen (time lines) und sind auf hochenergetische Sturmflutereignisse zurückzuführen. Die time lines werden nach Süden hin jünger und zeichnen unterschiedliche Stadien der Progradation nach, die ein episodisches Wachstum der Inselspitze in Abhängigkeit von der Sedimentverfügbarkeit und der Sturmflutintensität belegen. Alte Erosionsdiskordanzen belegen die frühe submarine Genese der Hörnum Odde. Ein starkes Wachstum der südlichen Inselspitze Sylts lässt sich im Mittelalter nachweisen.
Sturmfluten führten zudem immer wieder zu overwash-Prozessen und Überschwemmungen der noch jungen Inselspitze. Dies belegen ältere washover-Ablagerungen, die in unterschiedlichen Phasen der Nehrungshakenentwicklung nachgewiesen werden konnten. Rezente overwash-Prozesse sind auf die heutigen Dünen beschränkt und wurden in dieser Arbeit mit der Fragestellung untersucht, ob und inwieweit das Georadar als Methode zur Prospektion von washover-Sedimenten herangezogen werden kann.
Die unmittelbare Nachbarschaft der beiden Nehrungshaken von Sylt und Amrum lässt einen ähnlichen sedimentären Aufbau, eine analoge Genese in einem einheitlichen Prozess-System sowie ein vergleichbares Alter vermuten. Durch die Untersuchungen im Norden von Amrum sollte festgestellt werden, in wie weit das für die Hörnum Odde nachgewiesene Zusammenspiel von Küstenlängstransport, Progradation, sturmflutbedingten overwash-Prozessen und die zeitliche Unterbrechung des Längenwachstums durch Sturmfluterosion auch für Amrum zutrifft. Entgegen der Erwartungen unterscheidet sich der nördliche Nehrungshaken der Insel Amrum signifikant vom südlichen Nehrungshaken der Nachbarinsel Sylt.
Studien zur Landschaftsentwicklung an der Westküste Amrums wurden in einem Modell zusammengefasst, dass die Sedimentationsbedingungen, die im Westküstenvorfeld herrschten bevor der Kniepsand an die Insel heranwanderte, beschreibt. Auf der Landoberfläche des ertrinkenden saaleeiszeitlichen Geestkerns wurden zu Beginn der Flandrischen Transgression feinkörnige Sedimente eines Misch- und Schlickwatts abgelagert. Es ist davon auszugehen, dass der damals noch weit vor der Küste Amrums liegende Kniepsand eine Barriere bildete und so an der heute hochenergetischen Westküste für strömungsberuhigte Sedimentationsbedingungen sorgte. Ein weiteres Modell beschreibt den Andockmechanismus des Kniepsandes an die Insel Amrum. Durch die Anlagerung des ehemaligen Außensandes und den damit einhergehenden Sedimentinput wurden die Bedingungen für eine großflächige Dünenbildung geschaffen.
This thesis presents microstructural investigations of rock salt from the central part of the Gorleben salt dome (Northern Germany). The main emphasis was to characterize the rock salt microfabrics, to identify operating deformation mechanisms in halite and anhydrite and to decipher the macro- and microstructural distribution of hydrocarbons, which have been encountered during the underground exploration of the salt dome. The microfabrics of the Knäuel- and the Streifensalz formation indicate that strain-induced grain boundary migration has been active during deformation of halite. Crystal plastic deformation of halite is further documented by lattice bending, subgrain formation and minor subgrain rotation. Evidence for pressure solution of halite has not been found, but cannot be excluded because of the small grain size, the lack of LPO and the low differential stress (1.1 - 1.3 MPa) as deduced from subgrain-size piezometry. Solution precipitation creep was proven for intercalated anhydrite layers and clusters, which have been deformed in the brittle-ductile regime. Brittle deformation of anhydrite in terms of boudinage and fracturing was counteracted by viscous creep of halite which caused a re-sealing of fractures and a reestablishing of the characteristic sealing capacity of rock salt. Hydrocarbons are mainly located along cross cut 1 West of the Gorleben exploration mine and are heterogeneously distributed in the rock salt. They are incorporated in the rock salt foliation in the form of streaks, dispersed clouds, clusters and isolated patches. On the micro-scale, hydrocarbons are trapped along grain boundaries of halite and/or anhydrite, in micro-capillary tubes of anhydrite and in pore space of the rare rock salt with elevated porosity (< 1.26 vol.-%). Such elevated porosities correlate with elevated hydrocarbon concentrations of several hundred ppm. The overall concentrations of hydrocarbons, however, are very low (< 0.05 wt.-%). Elevated porosity is depicted to be a remnant originating from an early stage of salt uplift when fluid and hydrocarbons have migrated and spread from the Staßfurt Karbonat (z2SK) into the superjacent Gorleben Hauptsalz. During halokinesis and the strong reworking of the salt body hydrocarbons have been redistributed and dismembered resulting in the isolated present-day occurrences. The distribution of hydrocarbons shows no relation to local variations in the rock salt fabric. The microstructures of hydrocarbon-bearing and hydrocarbon-free Gorleben rock salt are not distinguishable from each other. Likewise, the presence of hydrocarbons should not have influenced the mechanical behavior or the rock salt as indicated by the microfabrics studied and by geomechanical data. The pure amounts of hydrocarbons are too low for any detectable impact on the barrier properties of this part of rock salt. Although hydrocarbons have migrated into the Gorleben Hauptsalz during an early stage of salt uplift when the sealing capacity of rock salt was diminished, the major implication of their isolated distribution patterns is that the Gorleben rock salt was able to regain its sealing capacity during subsequent deformation and re-equilibration. Former migration pathways for fluid and hydrocarbons have been healed and do not exist anymore. The application of X-ray computed tomography (CT) allows the 3D visualization and quantification of anhydrite, pore space and fluid phases located along grain-boundaries or trapped as intracrystalline inclusions. The 3D reconstruction of anhydrite clusters and pore space for the same sample reveals different spatial distribution patterns. This fact implies that anhydrite is not responsible for such elevated pore space in the rock salt studied, which has been largely closed during the polyphase deformation history of the Gorleben salt dome. High-resolution nanoCT scans (≤ 1 μm voxel size) of single intra- and intercrystalline fluid inclusions in rock salt enable a characterization of gaseous, solid and liquid phases inside single fluid inclusions and give exact information on morphology and shape. The 3D reconstruction of grain boundary fluid inclusions allows the amount, volumes, surface areas or diameters of various types to be determined. Non-destructive X-ray CT imaging is presented as very useful tool to characterize the structural inventory of rock salt. This non-destructive technique offers new perspectives for microstructural studies and for a wide range of research in structural geology, in general.
Amines are potentially important for atmospheric new particle formation, but their concentrations are usually low with typical mixing ratios in the pptv range or even smaller. Therefore, the demand for highly sensitive gas-phase amine measurements has emerged in the last several years. Nitrate chemical ionization mass spectrometry (CIMS) is routinely used for the measurement of gas-phase sulfuric acid in the sub-pptv range. Furthermore, extremely low volatile organic compounds (ELVOCs) can be detected with a nitrate CIMS. In this study we demonstrate that a nitrate CIMS can also be used for the sensitive measurement of dimethylamine (DMA, (CH3)2NH) using the NO3−•(HNO3)1 − 2• (DMA) cluster ion signal. Calibration measurements were made at the CLOUD chamber during two different measurement campaigns. Good linearity between 0 and ∼ 120 pptv of DMA as well as a sub-pptv detection limit of 0.7 pptv for a 10 min integration time are demonstrated at 278 K and 38 % RH.