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The crystal structure of the high temperature phase of anilinium bromide, C6H5NH3⊕Br⊖ , was studied by X-ray and neutron diffraction at T = 343 K. The refinement supports disordered positions of the -NH3⊕ group. A split-atom model is proposed which includes disorder of the benzene ring. The thermal parameters, hydrogen bond distances, and other experimental data (NMR, NQR, inelastic neutron scattering) are in accordance with this model.
In Memoriam: Kurt Kimpel †
(1950)
An Hand neuerer paläoklimatologischer Forschungsergebnisse wird nachgewiesen, daß sowohl die Polwanderungstheorie als auch die astronomische Theorie von Milankovitch in bezug auf die Verhältnisse während des Känozoikums und namentlich während des Alluviums versagen. Es wird weiterhin ausgeführt, daß die Nebelveränderlichkeit nicht etwa durch rein optische Bedeckungseffekte, sondern durch die Bildung einer dichten, den Stern umgebenden Hülle, welche den Energietransport in der Sternatmosphäre stört, hervorgerufen wird. Die kleineren Schwankungen innerhalb der Eiszeiten (Interstadialzeiten) und die kurzdauernden Schwankungen des Alluvialklimas können durch die faserige (Filament-) Struktur der Dunkelwolken erklärt werden.
Im ersten Teil werden kurz die entscheidenden Schwierigkeiten der beiden bekanntesten Versuche zur Erklärung der Eiszeiten, und zwar der Pol-bzw. Kontinentalver-schiebungen (Epeirophorese) und der sog. astronomischen Theorie (Schwankungen der Schiefe der Ekliptik und der Erdbahnelemente) aufgezeigt. - Im zweiten Teil wird wahrscheinlich gemacht, daß eine schon 1921 vorgetragene Hypothese von Shapley, nach der die Sonne in der diluvialen Eiszeit eine von kosmischen Dunkelwolken verursachte schwache Veränderlichkeit ihrer Strahlung zeigte, nach neueren, in erster Linie astrophysikalischen Forschungsergebnissen eine brauchbare Erklärung zu liefern imstande ist, aus folgenden drei Gründen:
1. In allen dichteren kosmischen Dunkelwolken findet man unregelmäßige veränderliche Sterne eines ganz besonderen Typus; im Gegensatz zu fast allen übrigen Typen veränderlicher Sterne handelt es sich bei diesen Sternen um Zwergsterne, wie die Sonne oder noch schwächer.
2. Unser Sonnensystem befindet sich gegenwärtig innerhalb dunkler kosmischer Materie, und es ist höchstwahrscheinlich, daß es in naher Vergangenheit auch dichtere Teile von solchen Dunkelwolken durchquert hat.
3. Die Form der Dunkelwolken, ihre armförmigen, zirrus-oder zirrostratusähnlichen Anordnungen und Verästelungen lassen eine zwanglose Erklärung der mehrfachen Wiederholung der Eiszeiten zu; es wird hier also nicht nur die Eiszeit, sondern aus der gleichen Hauptursache auch deren Gliederung erklärt, was sonst nicht gelungen zu sein scheint.
Die Mitwirkung anderer, in erster Linie astronomischer und geographischer Faktoren, letztere insbesondere in der älteren Erdgeschichte, ist durchaus möglich.
Aim: Recent studies in southern Africa identified past biome stability as an important predictor of biodiversity. We aimed to assess the extent to which past biome stability predicts present global biodiversity patterns, and the extent to which projected climatic changes may lead to eventual biome changes in areas with constant past biome.
Location: Global.
Taxon: Spermatophyta; terrestrial vertebrates.
Methods: Biome constancy was assessed and mapped using results from 89 dynamic global vegetation model simulations, driven by outputs of palaeoclimate experiments spanning the past 140 ka. We tested the hypothesis that terrestrial vertebrate diversity is predicted by biome constancy. We also simulated potential future vegetation, and hence potential future biome patterns, and quantified and mapped the extent of projected eventual future biome change in areas of past constant biome.
Results: Approximately 11% of global ice-free land had a constant biome since 140 ka. Apart from areas of constant Desert, many areas with constant biome support high species diversity. All terrestrial vertebrate groups show a strong positive relationship between biome constancy and vertebrate diversity in areas of greater diversity, but no relationship in less diverse areas. Climatic change projected by 2100 commits 46%–66% of global ice-free land, and 34%–52% of areas of past constant biome (excluding areas of constant Desert) to eventual biome change.
Main conclusions: Past biome stability strongly predicts vertebrate diversity in areas of higher diversity. Future climatic changes will lead to biome changes in many areas of past constant biome, with profound implications for biodiversity conservation. Some projected biome changes will result in substantial reductions in biospheric carbon sequestration and other ecosystem services.
Cratonic eclogite is the product of oceanic crust subduction into the subcontinental lithospheric mantle, and it also is a fertile diamond source rock. In contrast to matrix minerals in magma-borne xenoliths, inclusions in diamond are shielded from external fluids, retaining more pristine information on the state of the eclogite source at the time of encapsulation. Vanadium is a multi-valent element and a widely used elemental redox proxy. Here, we show that that xenolithic garnet has lower average V abundances than garnet inclusions. This partly reflects crystal-chemical controls, whereby higher average temperatures recorded by inclusions, accompanied by enhanced Na2O and TiO2 partitioning into garnet, facilitate V incorporation at the expense of clinopyroxene. Unexpectedly, although diamond formation is strongly linked to metasomatism and xenoliths remained open systems, V concentrations are similar for bulk eclogites reconstructed from inclusions and from xenoliths. This suggests an oxygen-conserving mechanism for eclogitic diamond formation, and implies that eclogite is an efficient system to buffer fO2 over aeons of lithospheric mantle modification by subduction-derived and other fluids.
Global water models (GWMs) simulate the terrestrial water cycle, on the global scale, and are used to assess the impacts of climate change on freshwater systems. GWMs are developed within different modeling frameworks and consider different underlying hydrological processes, leading to varied model structures. Furthermore, the equations used to describe various processes take different forms and are generally accessible only from within the individual model codes. These factors have hindered a holistic and detailed understanding of how different models operate, yet such an understanding is crucial for explaining the results of model evaluation studies, understanding inter-model differences in their simulations, and identifying areas for future model development. This study provides a comprehensive overview of how state-of-the-art GWMs are designed. We analyze water storage compartments, water flows, and human water use sectors included in 16 GWMs that provide simulations for the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project phase 2b (ISIMIP2b). We develop a standard writing style for the model equations to further enhance model improvement, intercomparison, and communication. In this study, WaterGAP2 used the highest number of water storage compartments, 11, and CWatM used 10 compartments. Seven models used six compartments, while three models (JULES-W1, Mac-PDM.20, and VIC) used the lowest number, three compartments. WaterGAP2 simulates five human water use sectors, while four models (CLM4.5, CLM5.0, LPJmL, and MPIHM) simulate only water used by humans for the irrigation sector. We conclude that even though hydrologic processes are often based on similar equations, in the end, these equations have been adjusted or have used different values for specific parameters or specific variables. Our results highlight that the predictive uncertainty of GWMs can be reduced through improvements of the existing hydrologic processes, implementation of new processes in the models, and high-quality input data.
Global water models (GWMs) simulate the terrestrial water cycle on the global scale and are used to assess the impacts of climate change on freshwater systems. GWMs are developed within different modelling frameworks and consider different underlying hydrological processes, leading to varied model structures. Furthermore, the equations used to describe various processes take different forms and are generally accessible only from within the individual model codes. These factors have hindered a holistic and detailed understanding of how different models operate, yet such an understanding is crucial for explaining the results of model evaluation studies, understanding inter-model differences in their simulations, and identifying areas for future model development. This study provides a comprehensive overview of how 16 state-of-the-art GWMs are designed. We analyse water storage compartments, water flows, and human water use sectors included in models that provide simulations for the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project phase 2b (ISIMIP2b). We develop a standard writing style for the model equations to enhance model intercomparison, improvement, and communication. In this study, WaterGAP2 used the highest number of water storage compartments, 11, and CWatM used 10 compartments. Six models used six compartments, while four models (DBH, JULES-W1, Mac-PDM.20, and VIC) used the lowest number, three compartments. WaterGAP2 simulates five human water use sectors, while four models (CLM4.5, CLM5.0, LPJmL, and MPI-HM) simulate only water for the irrigation sector. We conclude that, even though hydrological processes are often based on similar equations for various processes, in the end these equations have been adjusted or models have used different values for specific parameters or specific variables. The similarities and differences found among the models analysed in this study are expected to enable us to reduce the uncertainty in multi-model ensembles, improve existing hydrological processes, and integrate new processes.
This paper investigates the global stratospheric Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC) in the ERA5 meteorological reanalysis from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The analysis is based on simulations of stratospheric mean age of air, including the full age spectrum, with the Lagrangian transport model CLaMS (Chemical Lagrangian Model of the Stratosphere), driven by reanalysis winds and total diabatic heating rates. ERA5-based results are compared to results based on the preceding ERA-Interim reanalysis. Our results show a significantly slower BDC for ERA5 than for ERA-Interim, manifesting in weaker diabatic heating rates and higher age of air. In the tropical lower stratosphere, heating rates are 30 %–40 % weaker in ERA5, likely correcting a bias in ERA-Interim. At 20 km and in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) stratosphere, ERA5 age values are around the upper margin of the uncertainty range from historical tracer observations, indicating a somewhat slow–biased BDC. The age trend in ERA5 over the 1989–2018 period is negative throughout the stratosphere, as climate models predict in response to global warming. However, the age decrease is not linear but steplike, potentially caused by multi-annual variability or changes in the observations included in the assimilation. During the 2002–2012 period, the ERA5 age shows a similar hemispheric dipole trend pattern as ERA-Interim, with age increasing in the NH and decreasing in the Southern Hemisphere (SH). Shifts in the age spectrum peak and residual circulation transit times indicate that reanalysis differences in age are likely caused by differences in the residual circulation. In particular, the shallow BDC branch accelerates in both reanalyses, whereas the deep branch accelerates in ERA5 and decelerates in ERA-Interim.
Central Europe was affected by a compressional tectonic event in the Late Cretaceous, caused by the convergence of Iberia and Europe. Basement uplifts, inverted graben structures and newly formed marginal troughs are the main expressions of crustal shortening. Although the maximum activity occurred in a short period between 90 and 75 Ma, the exact timing of this event is still unclear. Dating of start and end of basin inversion is very different depending on the applied method. On the basis of borehole data, facies and thickness maps, the timing of basin re-organisation was reconstructed for several basins in Central Europe. The obtained data point to a synchronous start of basin inversion already at 95 Ma (Cenomanian), 5 Million years earlier than commonly assumed. The end of the Late Cretaceous compressional event is more difficult to pinpoint, because regional uplift and salt migration disturb the signal of shifting marginal troughs. Unconformities of Late Campanian to Paleogene age on inverted structures indicate slowly declining uplift rates.
Teleconnections of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation in a multi-model ensemble of QBO-resolving models
(2021)
The Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) dominates the interannual variability of the tropical stratosphere and influences other regions of the atmosphere. The high predictability of the QBO implies that its teleconnections could lead to increased skill of seasonal and decadal forecasts provided the relevant mechanisms are accurately represented in models. Here modelling and sampling uncertainties of QBO teleconnections are examined using a multi-model ensemble of QBO-resolving atmospheric general circulation models that have carried out a set of coordinated experiments as part of the Stratosphere-troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate (SPARC) QBO initiative (QBOi). During Northern Hemisphere winter, the stratospheric polar vortex in most of these models strengthens when the QBO near 50 hPa is westerly and weakens when it is easterly, consistent with, but weaker than, the observed response. These weak responses are likely due to model errors, such as systematically weak QBO amplitudes near 50 hPa, affecting the teleconnection. The teleconnection to the North Atlantic Oscillation is less well captured overall, but of similar strength to the observed signal in the few models that do show it. The models do not show clear evidence of a QBO teleconnection to the Northern Hemisphere Pacific-sector subtropical jet.
The evolution and interrelationships of carnivorous squamates (mosasaurs, snakes, monitor lizards, Gila Monsters) are a contentious part of reptile systematics and go to the heart of conflict between morphological and molecular data in inferring evolutionary history. One of the best-preserved fossils in this motley grouping is “Saniwa” feisti Stritzke, 1983, represented by complete skeletons from the early-middle Eocene of Messel, Germany. We re-describe it on the basis of superficial examination, stereoradiography, and high-resolution X-ray computed tomography of new and published specimens. The scalation of the lizard is unique, consisting of small, keeled scales on the head (including a row of enlarged medial supraorbitals) and large, rhomboidal, keeled scales (invested by osteoderms) that covered the rest of the body. Two paired longitudinal rows of enlarged scales ran down the neck. The head was laterally compressed and box-shaped due to the presence of a strong canthal-temporal ridge; the limbs and tail were very long. Notable osteological features include: a toothed, strap-like vomer; septomaxilla with a long posterior process; palpebral with a long posterolateral process; a lacrimal boss and a single lacrimal foramen; a well-developed cultriform process of the parabasisphenoid; two hypoglossal (XII) foramina in addition to the vagus; a lack of resorption pits for replacement teeth; and possibly the presence of more than one wave of developing replacement teeth per locus. There are no osteological modifications suggestive of an intramandibular hinge, but postmortem displacement of the angular-prearticular-surangular complex in multiple specimens suggests that there might have been some degree of mobility in the lower jaw based on soft-tissue modifications. Using phylogenetic analyses on a data-set comprising 473 morphological characters and 46 DNA loci, we infer that a monophyletic Palaeovaranidae Georgalis, 2017, including Eosaniwa Haubold, 1977, lies on the stem of Varanidae Merrem, 1820, basal to various Cretaceous Mongolian taxa. We transfer feisti to the new genus Paranecrosaurus n. gen. Analysis of gut contents reveals only the second known specimen of the cryptozoic lizard Cryptolacerta hassiaca Müller, Hipsley, Head, Kardjilov, Hilger, Wuttke & Reisz, 2011, confirming a diet that was at least partly carnivorous; the preservation of the teeth of C. hassiaca suggests that the gastric physiology of Paranecrosaurus feisti (Stritzke, 1983) n. comb. had high acidity but low enzyme activity. Based on the foregoing and linear discriminant function analysis, we reconstruct P. feisti n. comb., as a powerful, widely roaming, faunivorous-carnivorous stem monitor lizard with a sensitive snout. If the molecular phylogeny of anguimorphs is correct, then many of the features shared by Helodermatidae Gray, 1837 and Varanidae must have arisen convergently, partly associated with diet. In that case, a reconciliation of morphological and molecular data would require the discovery of equally primitive fossils on the helodermatid stem.
Measurement of iodine species and sulfuric acid using bromide chemical ionization mass spectrometers
(2021)
Iodine species are important in the marine atmosphere for oxidation and new-particle formation. Understanding iodine chemistry and iodine new-particle formation requires high time resolution, high sensitivity, and simultaneous measurements of many iodine species. Here, we describe the application of a bromide chemical ionization mass spectrometer (Br-CIMS) to this task. During the iodine oxidation experiments in the Cosmics Leaving OUtdoor Droplets (CLOUD) chamber, we have measured gas-phase iodine species and sulfuric acid using two Br-CIMS, one coupled to a Multi-scheme chemical IONization inlet (Br-MION-CIMS) and the other to a Filter Inlet for Gasses and AEROsols inlet (Br-FIGAERO-CIMS). From offline calibrations and intercomparisons with other instruments, we have quantified the sensitivities of the Br-MION-CIMS to HOI, I2, and H2SO4 and obtained detection limits of 5.8 × 106, 3.8 × 105, and 2.0 × 105 molec. cm−3, respectively, for a 2 min integration time. From binding energy calculations, we estimate the detection limit for HIO3 to be 1.2 × 105 molec. cm−3, based on an assumption of maximum sensitivity. Detection limits in the Br-FIGAERO-CIMS are around 1 order of magnitude higher than those in the Br-MION-CIMS; for example, the detection limits for HOI and HIO3 are 3.3 × 107 and 5.1 × 106 molec. cm−3, respectively. Our comparisons of the performance of the MION inlet and the FIGAERO inlet show that bromide chemical ionization mass spectrometers using either atmospheric pressure or reduced pressure interfaces are well-matched to measuring iodine species and sulfuric acid in marine environments.
Previous investigation of seismic anisotropy indicates the presence of a simple mantle flow regime beneath the Turkish-Anatolian Plateau and Arabian Plate. Numerical modeling suggests that this simple flow is a component of a large-scale global mantle flow associated with the African superplume, which plays a key role in the geodynamic framework of the Arabia-Eurasia continental collision zone. However, the extent and impact of the flow pattern farther east beneath the Iranian Plateau and Zagros remains unclear. While the relatively smoothly varying lithospheric thickness beneath the Anatolian Plateau and Arabian Plate allows progress of the simple mantle flow, the variable lithospheric thickness across the Iranian Plateau is expected to impose additional boundary conditions on the mantle flow field. In this study, for the first time, we use an unprecedented data set of seismic waveforms from a network of 245 seismic stations to examine the mantle flow pattern and lithospheric deformation over the entire region of the Iranian Plateau and Zagros by investigation of seismic anisotropy. We also examine the correlation between the pattern of seismic anisotropy, plate motion using GPS velocities and surface strain fields. Our study reveals a complex pattern of seismic anisotropy that implies a similarly complex mantle flow field. The pattern of seismic anisotropy suggests that the regional simple mantle flow beneath the Arabian Platform and eastern Turkey deflects as a circular flow around the thick Zagros lithosphere. This circular flow merges into a toroidal component beneath the NW Zagros that is likely an indicator of a lateral discontinuity in the lithosphere. Our examination also suggests that the main lithospheric deformation in the Zagros occurs as an axial shortening across the belt, whereas in the eastern Alborz and Kopeh-Dagh a belt-parallel horizontal lithospheric deformation plays a major role.
Wildfire is the most common disturbance type in boreal forests and can trigger significant changes in forest composition. Waterlogging in peatlands determines the degree of tree cover and the depth of the burnt horizon associated with wildfires. However, interactions between peatland moisture, vegetation composition and flammability, and fire regime in forest and forested peatland in Eurasia remain largely unexplored, despite their huge extent in boreal regions. To address this knowledge gap, we reconstructed the Holocene fire regime, vegetation composition, and peatland hydrology at two sites located in predominantly light taiga (Pinus sylvestris Betula) with interspersed dark taiga communities (Pinus sibirica, Picea obovata, Abies sibirica) in western Siberia in the Tomsk Oblast, Russia. We found marked shifts in past water levels over the Holocene. The probability of fire occurrence and the intensification of fire frequency and severity increased at times of low water table (drier conditions), enhanced fuel dryness, and an intermediate dark-to-light taiga ratio. High water level, and thus wet peat surface conditions, prevented fires from spreading on peatland and surrounding forests. Deciduous trees (i.e. Betula) and Sphagnum were more abundant under wetter peatland conditions, and conifers and denser forests were more prevalent under drier peatland conditions. On a Holocene scale, severe fires were recorded between 7.5 and 4.5 ka with an increased proportion of dark taiga and fire avoiders (Pinus sibirica at Rybnaya and Abies sibirica at Ulukh–Chayakh) in a predominantly light taiga and fire-resister community characterised by Pinus sylvestris and lower local water level. Severe fires also occurred over the last 1.5 kyr and were associated with a declining abundance of dark taiga and fire avoiders, an expansion of fire invaders (Betula), and fluctuating water tables. These findings suggest that frequent, high-severity fires can lead to compositional and structural changes in forests when trees fail to reach reproductive maturity between fire events or where extensive forest gaps limit seed dispersal. This study also shows prolonged periods of synchronous fire activity across the sites, particularly during the early to mid-Holocene, suggesting a regional imprint of centennial- to millennial-scale Holocene climate variability on wildfire activity. Humans may have affected vegetation and fire from the Neolithic; however, increasing human presence in the region, particularly at the Ulukh–Chayakh Mire over the last 4 centuries, drastically enhanced ignitions compared to natural background levels. Frequent warm and dry spells predicted by climate change scenarios for Siberia in the future will enhance peatland drying and may convey a competitive advantage to conifer taxa. However, dry conditions will probably exacerbate the frequency and severity of wildfire, disrupt conifers' successional pathway, and accelerate shifts towards deciduous broadleaf tree cover. Furthermore, climate–disturbance–fire feedbacks will accelerate changes in the carbon balance of boreal peatlands and affect their overall future resilience to climate change.
Wildfire is the most common disturbance type in boreal forests and can trigger significant changes in forest composition. Waterlogging in peatlands determines the degree of tree cover and the depth of the burning horizon associated with wildfires. However, interactions between peatland moisture, vegetation composition and flammability, and fire regime in forested peatland in Eurasia remain largely unexplored, despite their huge extent in boreal regions. To address this knowledge gap, we reconstructed the Holocene fire regime, vegetation composition and peatland hydrology at two sites in Western Siberia near Tomsk Oblast, Russia. The palaeoecological records originate from forested peatland areas in predominantly light taiga (Pinus-Betula) with increase in dark taiga communities (Pinus sibirica, Picea obovata, Abies sibirica) towards the east. We found that the past water level fluctuated between 8 and 30 cm below the peat surface. Wet peatland conditions promoted broadleaf trees (Betula), whereas dry peatland conditions favoured conifers and a greater forest density (dark-to-light-taiga ratio). The frequency and severity of fire increased with a declining water table that enhanced fuel dryness and flammability and at an intermediate forest density. We found that the probability of intensification in fire severity increased when the water
level declined below 20 cm suggesting a tipping point in peatland hydrology at which wildfire regime intensifies. On a Holocene scale, we found two scenarios of moisture-vegetation-fire interactions. In the first, severe fires were recorded 45 between 7.5 and 4.5 ka BP with lower water level and an increased proportion of dark taiga and fire avoiders (Pinus sibirica at Rybanya and Abies sibirica at Ulukh Chayakh) mixed into the dominantly light taiga and fire-resister community of Pinus
sylvestris. The second occurred over the last 1.5 ka and was associated with fluctuating water tables, a declining abundance of fire avoiders, and an expansion of fire invaders (Betula). These findings suggest that frequent high-severity fires can lead to compositional and structural changes in forests when trees fail to reach reproductive maturity between fire events or where extensive forest gaps limit seed dispersal. This study also shows prolonged periods of synchronous fire activity across the sites, particularly during the early to mid-Holocene, suggesting a regional imprint of centennial to millennial-scale Holocene climate
variability on wildfire activity. Increasing human presence in the region of the Ulukh-Chayakh Mire near Teguldet over the last four centuries drastically enhanced ignitions compared to natural background levels. Frequent warm and dry spells predicted for the future in Siberia by climate change scenarios will enhance peatland drying and may convey a competitive advantage to conifer taxa. However, dry conditions, particularly a water table decline below the threshold of 20 cm, will probably exacerbate the frequency and severity of wildfire, disrupt conifers’ successional pathway and accelerate shifts towards more fire-adapted broadleaf tree cover. Furthermore, climate-disturbance-fire feedbacks will accelerate changes in the carbon balance of forested boreal peatlands and affect their overall future resilience to climate change.
State of the simulation of mesoscale winds in the Mediterranean and opportunities for improvements
(2022)
The Mediterranean region is a densely populated and economically relevant area with complex orography including mountain ranges, islands, and straits. In combination with pressure gradients, this creates many mesoscale wind systems that cause, e.g., wind gusts and wildfire risk in the Mediterranean. This article reviews the recent state of the science of several mesoscale winds in the Mediterranean and associated processes. Previous work, including case studies on several time ranges and resolutions, as well as studies on these winds under future climate conditions, is discussed. Simulations with grid spacings of 25 to 50 km can reproduce winds driven by large-scale pressure patterns such as Mistral, Tramontane, and Etesians. However, these simulations struggle with the correct representation of winds channeled in straits and mountain gaps and around islands. Grid spacings of 1–3 km are certainly necessary to resolve these small-scale features. The smaller grid spacings are widely used in case studies, but not yet in simulations over large areas and long periods, which also could help to understand the interaction between small-scale phenomena in separate locations. Furthermore, by far not all Mediterranean straits, islands, and mountain gaps were studied in-depth and many interesting Mediterranean small-scale winds still need to be studied.
Africa's protected areas (PAs) are the last stronghold of the continent's unique biodiversity, but they appear increasingly threatened by climate change, substantial human population growth, and land-use change. Conservation planning is challenged by uncertainty about how strongly and where these drivers will interact over the next few decades. We investigated the combined future impacts of climate-driven vegetation changes inside African PAs and human population densities and land use in their surroundings for 2 scenarios until the end of the 21st century. We used the following 2 combinations of the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and representative greenhouse gas concentration pathways (RCPs): the “middle-of-the-road” scenario SSP2–RCP4.5 and the resource-intensive “fossil-fueled development” scenario SSP5–RCP8.5. Climate change impacts on tree cover and biome type (i.e., desert, grassland, savanna, and forest) were simulated with the adaptive dynamic global vegetation model (aDGVM). Under both scenarios, most PAs were adversely affected by at least 1 of the drivers, but the co-occurrence of drivers was largely region and scenario specific. The aDGVM projections suggest considerable climate-driven tree cover increases in PAs in today's grasslands and savannas. For PAs in West Africa, the analyses revealed climate-driven vegetation changes combined with hotspots of high future population and land-use pressure. Except for many PAs in North Africa, future decreases in population and land-use pressures were rare. At the continental scale, SSP5–RCP8.5 led to higher climate-driven changes in tree cover and higher land-use pressure, whereas SSP2–RCP4.5 was characterized by higher future population pressure. Both SSP–RCP scenarios implied increasing challenges for conserving Africa's biodiversity in PAs. Our findings underline the importance of developing and implementing region-specific conservation responses. Strong mitigation of future climate change and equitable development scenarios would reduce ecosystem impacts and sustain the effectiveness of conservation in Africa.
New particle formation in the upper free troposphere is a major global source of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN)1,2,3,4. However, the precursor vapours that drive the process are not well understood. With experiments performed under upper tropospheric conditions in the CERN CLOUD chamber, we show that nitric acid, sulfuric acid and ammonia form particles synergistically, at rates that are orders of magnitude faster than those from any two of the three components. The importance of this mechanism depends on the availability of ammonia, which was previously thought to be efficiently scavenged by cloud droplets during convection. However, surprisingly high concentrations of ammonia and ammonium nitrate have recently been observed in the upper troposphere over the Asian monsoon region5,6. Once particles have formed, co-condensation of ammonia and abundant nitric acid alone is sufficient to drive rapid growth to CCN sizes with only trace sulfate. Moreover, our measurements show that these CCN are also highly efficient ice nucleating particles—comparable to desert dust. Our model simulations confirm that ammonia is efficiently convected aloft during the Asian monsoon, driving rapid, multi-acid HNO3–H2SO4–NH3 nucleation in the upper troposphere and producing ice nucleating particles that spread across the mid-latitude Northern Hemisphere.
Polarization of Λ and ¯Λ hyperons along the beam direction in Pb-Pb collisions at √sNN=5.02 TeV
(2022)
The polarization of the Λ and ¯Λ hyperons along the beam (z) direction, Pz, has been measured in Pb-Pb collisions at √sNN=5.02 TeV recorded with ALICE at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC). The main contribution to Pz comes from elliptic flow-induced vorticity and can be characterized by the second Fourier sine coefficient Pz,s2=⟨Pzsin(2φ−2Ψ2)⟩, where φ is thhyperon azimuthal emission angle and Ψ2 is the elliptic flow plane angle. We report the measurement of Pz,s2 for different collision centralities and in the 30%–50% centrality interval as a function of the hyperon transverse momentum and rapidity. The Pz,s2 is positive similarly as measured by the STAR Collaboration in Au-Au collisions at √sNN=200 GeV, with somewhat smaller amplitude in the semicentral collisions. This is the first experimental evidence of a nonzero hyperon Pz in Pb-Pb collisions at the LHC. The comparison of the measured Pz,s2 with the hydrodynamic model calculations shows sensitivity to the competing contributions from thermal and the recently found shear-induced vorticity, as well as to whether the polarization is acquired at the quark-gluon plasma or the hadronic phase.