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The Altenberg–Teplice Volcanic Complex (ATVC) is a large ~ NNW–SSE trending volcano-plutonic system in the southern part of the Eastern Erzgebirge (northern Bohemian Massif, south-eastern Germany and northern Czech Republic). This study presents high precision U–Pb CA-ID-TIMS zircon ages for the pre-caldera volcano-sedimentary Schönfeld–Altenberg Complex and various rocks of the caldera stage: the Teplice rhyolite, the microgranite ring dyke, and the Sayda-Berggießhübel dyke swarm. These data revealed a prolonged time gap of ca. 7–8 Myr between the pre-caldera stage (Schönfeld–Altenberg Complex) and the climactic caldera stage. The volcanic rocks of the Schönfeld–Altenberg Complex represent the earliest volcanic activity in the Erzgebirge and central Europe at ca. 322 Ma. The subsequent Teplice rhyolite was formed during a relatively short time interval of only 1–2 Myr (314–313 Ma). During the same time interval (314–313 Ma), the microgranite ring dyke intruded at the rim of the caldera structure. In addition, one dyke of the Sayda-Berggiesshübel dyke swarm was dated at ca. 314 Ma, while another yielded a younger age (ca. 311 Ma). These data confirm the close genetic and temporal relationship of the Teplice rhyolite, the microgranite ring dyke, and (at least part of) the Sayda-Berggießhübel dyke swarm. Remarkably, the caldera formation in the south of the Eastern Erzgebirge (caldera stage of ATVC: 314–313 Ma) and that in the north (Tharandt Forest caldera: 314–312 Ma) occurred during the same time. These data document a large ~ 60 km NNW–SSE trending magmatic system in the whole Eastern Erzgebirge. For the first time, Hf-O-isotope zircon data was acquired on the ring dyke from the ATVC rocks to better characterize its possible sources. The homogeneous Hf-O-isotope zircon data from the microgranite ring dyke require preceding homogenization of basement rocks. Some small-scale melts that were produced during Variscan amphibolite-facies metamorphism show similar Hf-O-isotope characteristics and can therefore be considered as the most probable source for the microgranite ring dyke melt. In addition, a second source with low oxygen isotope ratios (e.g. basic rocks) probably contributed to the melt and possibly triggered the climactic eruption of the Teplice rhyolite as well as the crystal-rich intrusion of the ring dyke.
By means of available ice nucleating particle (INP) parameterization schemes we compute profiles of dust INP number concentration utilizing Polly-XT and CALIPSO lidar observations during the INUIT-BACCHUS-ACTRIS 2016 campaign. The polarization-lidar photometer networking (POLIPHON) method is used to separate dust and non-dust aerosol backscatter, extinction, mass concentration, particle number concentration (for particles with radius > 250 nm) and surface area concentration. The INP final products are compared with aerosol samples collected from unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) and analyzed using the ice nucleus counter FRIDGE.
Two types of particles exist in the atmosphere, primary and secondary particles. While primary particles such as soot, mineral dust, sea salt particles or pollen are introduced directly as particles into the atmosphere, secondary particles are formed in the atmosphere by condensation of gases. The formation of such new aerosol particles takes place frequently and at a broad variety of atmospheric conditions and geographic locations. A considerable fraction of the atmospheric particles is formed by such nucleation processes. The newly formed particles may grow by condensation to sizes where they are large enough to act as cloud condensation nuclei and therefore may affect cloud properties. The fundamental processes of aerosol nucleation are described and typical atmospheric observations are discussed. Two recent studies are introduced that potentially change our current understanding of atmospheric nucleation substantially.
The modern precipitation balance in southeastern (SE) Brazil is regulated by the South American summer Monsoon and threatened by global climate change. On glacial-interglacial timescales, monsoon intensity was strongly controlled by precession-forced changes in insolation. To date, relatively little is known about the spatiotemporal distribution of tropical precipitation in SE Brazil and the resulting variability of fluvial discharge on glacial-interglacial timescales. Here, we present X-ray diffraction-derived mineralogical data for the 150–70 ka period (marine isotope stage (MIS) 6 to MIS 5) from the Doce River basin. This area was sensitive to changes in monsoonal precipitation intensity due to its proximity to the South Atlantic Convergence Zone. The data, obtained from a marine sediment core (M125-55–7) close to the Doce river mouth (20°S), show pronounced changes in the Doce River suspension load’s mineralogical composition on glacial-interglacial and precessional timescales. While the ratio of silicates to carbonates displays precession-paced changes, the mineralogical composition of the carbonate-free fraction discriminates between two assemblages which strongly vary between glacial and interglacial time scales, with precession-forced variability only visible in MIS 5. The first assemblage, dominated by high contents of kaolinite and gibbsite, indicates intensified lowland erosion of mature tropical soils. The second one, characterized by higher contents of the well-ordered illite, quartz and albite, points to intensified erosion of immature soils in the upper Doce Basin. High kaolinite contents in the silicate fraction prevailed in late MIS 6 and indicate pronounced lowland soil erosion along a steepened topographic gradient. The illite-rich mineral assemblage was more abundant in MIS 5, particularly during times of high austral summer insolation, indicating strong monsoonal rainfall and intense physical erosion in the upper catchment. When the summer monsoon weakened in times of lower insolation, the mineral assemblage was dominated by kaolinite again, indicative of lower precipitation and runoff in the upper catchment and dominant lowland erosion.
Seasonal forecasting systems still have difficulties predicting temperature over continental regions, while their performance is better over some maritime regions. On the other hand, the land surface is a substantial source of (sub-)seasonal predictability. A crucial land surface component in focus here is the snow cover, which stores water and modulates the surface radiation balance. This paper’s goal is to attribute snow cover seasonal forecasting biases and lack of skill to either initialization or parameterization errors. For this purpose, we compare the snow representation in five seasonal forecasting systems (from DWD, ECMWF, Météo-France, CMCC, and ECCC) and their performances in predicting snow and 2-m temperature over a Siberian region against ERA5 reanalysis and station data. Although all systems use similar atmospheric and land initialization approaches and data, their snow and temperature biases differ in sign and amplitude. Too-large initial snow biases persist over the forecast period, delaying and prolonging the melting phase. The simplest snow scheme (used in DWD’s system) shows too-early and fast melting in spring. However, systems including multi-layer snow schemes (Météo-France and CMCC) do not necessarily perform better. Both initialization and parameterization are causes of snow biases, but, depending on the system, one can be more dominant.
We present the results of a multi-disciplinary investigation on a deciduous human tooth (Pradis 1), recently recovered from the Epigravettian layers of the Grotte di Pradis archaeological site (Northeastern Italian Prealps). Pradis 1 is an exfoliated deciduous molar (Rdm2), lost during life by an 11–12-year-old child. A direct radiocarbon date provided an age of 13,088–12,897 cal BP (95% probability, IntCal20). Amelogenin peptides extracted from tooth enamel and analysed through LC–MS/MS indicate that Pradis 1 likely belonged to a male. Time-resolved 87Sr/86Sr analyses by laser ablation mass spectrometry (LA-MC-ICPMS), combined with dental histology, were able to resolve his movements during the first year of life (i.e. the enamel mineralization interval). Specifically, the Sr isotope ratio of the tooth enamel differs from the local baseline value, suggesting that the child likely spent his first year of life far from Grotte di Pradis. Sr isotopes are also suggestive of a cyclical/seasonal mobility pattern exploited by the Epigravettian human group. The exploitation of Grotte di Pradis on a seasonal, i.e. summer, basis is also indicated by the faunal spectra. Indeed, the nearly 100% occurrence of marmot remains in the entire archaeozoological collection indicates the use of Pradis as a specialized marmot hunting or butchering site. This work represents the first direct assessment of sub-annual movements observed in an Epigravettian hunter-gatherer group from Northern Italy.
Central and western Europe were affected by a compressional tectonic event in the Late Cretaceous, caused by the convergence of Iberia and Europe. Basement uplifts, inverted graben structures, and newly formed marginal troughs are the main expressions of crustal shortening. Although the maximum activity occurred during a short period of time between 90 and 75 Ma, the exact timing of this event is still unclear. Dating of the start and end of Late Cretaceous basin inversion gives very different results depending on the method applied. On the basis of borehole data, facies, and thickness maps, the timing of basin reorganization was reconstructed for several basins in central Europe. The obtained data point to a synchronous start of basin inversion at 95 Ma (Cenomanian), 5 Myr earlier than commonly assumed. The end of the Late Cretaceous compressional event is difficult to pinpoint in central Europe, because regional uplift and salt migration disturb the signal of shifting marginal troughs. Late Campanian to Paleogene strata deposited unconformably on inverted structures indicate slowly declining uplift rates during the latest Cretaceous. The differentiation of separate Paleogene inversion phases in central Europe does not appear possible at present.
We present the first oxidation state measurements for the subcontinental lithospheric mantle (SCLM) beneath the Rae craton, northern Canada, one of the largest components of the Canadian shield. In combination with major and trace element compositions for garnet and clinopyroxene, we assess the relationship between oxidation state and metasomatic overprinting. The sample suite comprises peridotite xenoliths from the central part (Pelly Bay) and the craton margin (Somerset Island) providing insights into lateral and vertical variations in lithospheric character. Our suite contains spinel, garnet-spinel and garnet peridotites, with most samples originating from 100 to 140 km depth. Within this narrow depth range we observe strong chemical gradients, including variations in oxygen fugacity (ƒO2) of over 4 log units. Both Pelly Bay and Somerset Island peridotites reveal a change in metasomatic type with depth. Observed geochemical systematics and textural evidence support the notion that Rae SCLM developed through amalgamation of different local domains, establishing chemical gradients from the start. These gradients were subsequently modified by migrating melts that drove further development of different types of metasomatic overprinting and variable oxidation at a range of length scales. This oxidation already apparent at ~ 100 km depth could have locally destabilised any pre-existing diamond or graphite.
The calcareous substrate of spring-fed fens makes them unique islands of biodiversity, hosting endangered, vulnerable, and protected vascular plants. Hence, spring-fed fens ecosystems require special conservation attention because many of them are destroyed (e.g. drained, forested) and it is extremely difficult or even impossible to restore the unique hydrogeological and geochemical conditions enabling their function. The long-term perspective of paleoecological studies allows indication of former wetland ecosystem states and provides understanding of their development over millennia. To examine the late Holocene dynamics of a calcareous spring-fed fen (Raganu Mire) ecosystem on the Baltic Sea coast (Latvia) in relation to environmental changes, substrate and human activity, we have undertaken high-resolution analyses of plant macrofossils, pollen, mollusc, stable carbon (δ13C) and oxygen (δ18O) isotopes combined with radiocarbon dating (AMS) in three coring locations. Our study revealed that peat deposits began accumulating ca. 7000 cal. yr BP and calcareous deposits (tufa) from 1450 cal. yr BP, coinciding with regional hydrological changes. Several fire events occurred between 4000 and 1600 cal. yr BP, which appeared to have had a limited effect on local vegetation. The most significant changes in the forest and peatland ecosystems were at 3200 cal. yr BP associated with a dry climate stage and high fire activity, and then between 1400 and 500 cal. yr BP potentially associated with temperature changes during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and Little Ice Age. Hydrological disturbances in the peatland catchment from 1400 cal. yr BP were most likely strengthened by human activity (deforestation) in this region. The relationship between the development of this peatland and changes in its catchment area, such as land cover changes or fluctuations in groundwater levels, suggest that protection and restoration of spring-fed fen ecosystems should also include the surrounding catchment. The presence of calcareous sediments, as well as appropriate temperature and local hydrological conditions appear to be the most crucial factors controlling Cladium marisus populations in our site - currently at the eastern limit of its distribution in Europe.
Non-forest ecosystems, dominated by shrubs, grasses and herbaceous plants, provide ecosystem services including carbon sequestration and forage for grazing, and are highly sensitive to climatic changes. Yet these ecosystems are poorly represented in remotely sensed biomass products and are undersampled by in situ monitoring. Current global change threats emphasize the need for new tools to capture biomass change in non-forest ecosystems at appropriate scales. Here we developed and deployed a new protocol for photogrammetric height using unoccupied aerial vehicle (UAV) images to test its capability for delivering standardized measurements of biomass across a globally distributed field experiment. We assessed whether canopy height inferred from UAV photogrammetry allows the prediction of aboveground biomass (AGB) across low-stature plant species by conducting 38 photogrammetric surveys over 741 harvested plots to sample 50 species. We found mean canopy height was strongly predictive of AGB across species, with a median adjusted R2 of 0.87 (ranging from 0.46 to 0.99) and median prediction error from leave-one-out cross-validation of 3.9%. Biomass per-unit-of-height was similar within but different among, plant functional types. We found that photogrammetric reconstructions of canopy height were sensitive to wind speed but not sun elevation during surveys. We demonstrated that our photogrammetric approach produced generalizable measurements across growth forms and environmental settings and yielded accuracies as good as those obtained from in situ approaches. We demonstrate that using a standardized approach for UAV photogrammetry can deliver accurate AGB estimates across a wide range of dynamic and heterogeneous ecosystems. Many academic and land management institutions have the technical capacity to deploy these approaches over extents of 1–10 ha−1. Photogrammetric approaches could provide much-needed information required to calibrate and validate the vegetation models and satellite-derived biomass products that are essential to understand vulnerable and understudied non-forested ecosystems around the globe.
Following votes in the Coniacian Working Group, the Cretaceous Subcommission and the International Commission on Stratigraphy, on May 1st, 2021, the International Union of Geological Sciences voted unanimously to ratify the Global Stratotype Section and Point (GSSP) proposal for the base of the Coniacian Stage of the Upper Cretaceous Series and Cretaceous System. The lower boundary of the Coniacian Stage is placed at the base of Bed 46 of the Salzgitter-Salder section in northern Germany. The boundary is defined by the first appearance of the inoceramid bivalve species Cremnoceramus deformis erectus (Meek) and complemented by the Navigation carbon isotope event. Additional data include the bivalve genus Didymotis, foraminifera, ammonite, nannofossil and organic-walled dinoflagellate cyst events. Three auxiliary sections (Słupia Nadbrzeżna, central Poland; Střeleč, Czech Republic; El Rosario, NE Mexico) supplement the details of the boundary record in various facies, and in differing geographic and biogeographic contexts.
In this survey paper, we present a multiscale post-processing method in exploration. Based on a physically relevant mollifier technique involving the elasto-oscillatory Cauchy–Navier equation, we mathematically describe the extractable information within 3D geological models obtained by migration as is commonly used for geophysical exploration purposes. More explicitly, the developed multiscale approach extracts and visualizes structural features inherently available in signature bands of certain geological formations such as aquifers, salt domes etc. by specifying suitable wavelet bands.
The endemic argan tree (Argania spinosa) populations in South Morocco are highly degraded due to overbrowsing, illegal firewood extraction and the expansion of intensive agriculture. Bare areas between the isolated trees increase due to limited regrowth, but show lower soil quality than their neighbouring tree areas. Hypothetically, spatial differences of soil quality of the intertree area should result from translocation of litter or soil particles (by runoff and erosion or wind drift) from canopy-covered areas to the intertree areas. 385 soil samples were taken around the tree from the trunk along the tree drip line (within and outside the tree area) as well as the intertree area between two trees in four directions (upslope, downslope and in both directions parallel to the slope) and analysed for soil moisture, pH, electrical conductivity, percolation stability, total nitrogen content, content of soil organic carbon and C/N ratio. 74 tension-disc infiltrometer experiments were performed near the tree drip line, within and outside the tree area, to measure the unsaturated hydraulic conductivity. We found that the tree influence on its surrounding intertree area is limited, with e.g., Corg- & N-content decreasing significantly from tree trunk to tree drip line. However, intertree areas near the tree drip line differed significantly from intertree areas between two trees, yet only with a small effect. Trends for spatial patterns could be found in eastern and downslope directions due to wind drift and slope wash. Soil moisture was highest in the north due to shade from the midday sun, the influence extended to the intertree areas. The unsaturated hydraulic conductivity also showed significant differences between areas within and outside the tree area near the tree drip line. Although only limited influence of the tree on its intertree area was found, the spatial pattern around the tree suggests that reforestation measures should be aimed around tree shelters in northern or eastern directions with higher soil moistures, N- or Corg-content to ensure seedling survival.
Metal artifacts from the Paleometal Epoch (ca. 1100 BC–400 AD) of the Primorye (Russian Far East) have shed new light on the introduction of the earliest bronzes into the Pacific coastal areas of prehistoric Eurasia. However, little is known about raw material circulation and the role of metal in the context of inter-regional exchange. This paper investigates 12 copper artifacts from major Paleometal settlements using alloy composition, trace elements, and lead isotopes to explore the metal sources and distribution networks. The results suggest that most objects are made of a copper-tin alloy, but some have arsenic as a significant minor element . Geologically, copper is unlikely to have come from local ore sources, but rather from the Liaoxi corridor and Liaodong Peninsula in Northeast China. This may indicate an inland route of metal trade across Northeast China or alternately, a coastal route via the northern Korean Peninsula. Archaeologically, the combined study of artifact typology and chemistry indicates two possible origins for the metal: the Upper Xiajiadian culture in Northeast China and Slab Grave culture in Mongolia/Transbaikal. Remarkably, the connection with Upper Xiajiadian communities parallels the transport route along which millet agriculture spread from Northeast China to the Primorye during the Neolithic.
Community trait assembly in highly diverse tropical rainforests is still poorly understood. Based on more than a decade of field measurements in a biodiversity hotspot of southern Ecuador, we implemented plant trait variation and improved soil organic matter dynamics in a widely used dynamic vegetation model (the Lund-Potsdam-Jena General Ecosystem Simulator, LPJ-GUESS) to explore the main drivers of community assembly along an elevational gradient. In the model used here (LPJ-GUESS-NTD, where NTD stands for nutrient-trait dynamics), each plant individual can possess different trait combinations, and the community trait composition emerges via ecological sorting. Further model developments include plant growth limitation by phosphorous (P) and mycorrhizal nutrient uptake. The new model version reproduced the main observed community trait shift and related vegetation processes along the elevational gradient, but only if nutrient limitations to plant growth were activated. In turn, when traits were fixed, low productivity communities emerged due to reduced nutrient-use efficiency. Mycorrhizal nutrient uptake, when deactivated, reduced net primary production (NPP) by 61–72% along the gradient. Our results strongly suggest that the elevational temperature gradient drives community assembly and ecosystem functioning indirectly through its effect on soil nutrient dynamics and vegetation traits. This illustrates the importance of considering these processes to yield realistic model predictions.
Plant community biomass production is co-dependent on climatic and edaphic factors that are often covarying and non-independent. Disentangling how these factors act in isolation is challenging, especially along large climatic gradients that can mask soil effects. As anthropogenic pressure increasingly alters local climate and soil resource supply unevenly across landscapes, our ability to predict concurrent changes in plant community processes requires clearer understandings of independent and interactive effects of climate and soil. To address this, we developed a multispecies phytometer (i.e., standardized plant community) for separating key drivers underlying plant productivity across gradients. Phytometers were composed of three globally cosmopolitan herbaceous perennials, Dactylis glomerata, Plantago lanceolata, and Trifolium pratense. In 2017, we grew phytometer communities in 18 sites across a pan-European aridity gradient in local site soils and a standardized substrate and compared biomass production. Standard substrate phytometers succeeded in providing a standardized climate biomass response independent of local soil effects. This allowed us to factor out climate effects in local soil phytometers, establishing that nitrogen availability did not predict biomass production, while phosphorus availability exerted a strong, positive effect independent of climate. Additionally, we identified a negative relationship between biomass production and potassium and magnesium availability. Species-specific biomass responses to the environment in the climate-corrected biomass were asynchronous, demonstrating the importance of species interactions in vegetation responses to global change. Biomass production was co-limited by climatic and soil drivers, with each species experiencing its own unique set of co-limitations. Our study demonstrates the potential of phytometers for disentangling effects of climate and soil on plant biomass production and suggests an increasing role of P limitation in the temperate regions of Europe.
Ob wir bei der Erwärmung eher in Richtung plus 2 Grad oder eher in Richtung plus 5 Grad steuern, entscheidet sich zu einem nicht unbedeutenden Teil über den Meeren. Dort beschatten niedrige, flache, sehr großflächige Wolkenschichten die darunterliegende Wasseroberfläche und sorgen so für Abkühlung. Auch in Zukunft noch?
Non-technical summary: There has been a long history of conflicts, studies, and debate over how to both protect rivers and develop them sustainably. With a pause in new developments caused by the global pandemic, anticipated further implementation of the Paris Agreement and high-level global climate and biodiversity meetings in 2021, now is an opportune moment to consider the current trajectory of development and policy options for reconciling dams with freshwater system health. Technical summary: We calculate potential loss of free-flowing rivers (FFRs) if proposed hydropower projects are built globally. Over 260,000 km of rivers, including Amazon, Congo, Irrawaddy, and Salween mainstem rivers, would lose free-flowing status if all dams were built. We propose a set of tested and proven solutions to navigate trade-offs associated with river conservation and dam development. These solution pathways are framed within the mitigation hierarchy and include (1) avoidance through either formal river protection or through exploration of alternative development options; (2) minimization of impacts through strategic or system-scale planning or re-regulation of downstream flows; (3) restoration of rivers through dam removal; and (4) mitigation of dam impacts through biodiversity offsets that include restoration and protection of FFRs. A series of examples illustrate how avoiding or reducing impacts on rivers is possible – particularly when implemented at a system scale – and can be achieved while maintaining or expanding benefits for climate resilience, water, food, and energy security. Social media summary: Policy solutions and development pathways exist to navigate trade-offs to meet climate resilience, water, food, and energy security goals while safeguarding FFRs.
U–Pb age spectra of detrital zircons related to the East European Platform could be traced in paragneiss through the whole Mid-German-Crystalline Zone (Variscides, Central Europe) from the Odenwald via the Spessart to the Ruhla crystalline forming an exotic unit between Armorica and Laurussia. The depositional ages of the paragneiss are defined by the youngest age of the detrital zircons and the oldest intrusion ages as Ordovician to Silurian. The Ediacaran dominated age spectrum of detrital zircons from the paragneiss of the East Odenwald suggests the latter to be derived from the shelf of the East European Platform (Baltica), which was influenced by the 1.5 Ga old detritus delivered from a giant intrusion (Mazury granitoid, Poland). The detrital zircon age spectrum of the lower Palaeozoic paragneiss of the East Odenwald and sandstone of the northern Holy Cross Mountains are identical. The pure Sveconorwegian spectrum of the lower Palaeozoic quartzite from the Spessart, (Kirchner and Albert Int J Earth Sci 2020) and the Ruhla (Zeh and Gerdes Gondwana Res 17:254–263, 2010) could be sourced from Bornholm and southern Sweden. A U–Pb age spectrum with 88% Palaeozoic detrital zircons from a volcano-sedimentary rock of the East Odenwald is interpreted to be derived from a Silurian magmatic arc (46%), which was probably generated during the drift of the Mid-German-Crystalline Zone micro-continent to the south. A tentative plate tectonic model of Mid-German-Crystalline Zone is presented taking into account (a) the East European Platform related age spectra of the detrital zircons (b) the Ordovician to Silurian depositional age of the metasediments (c) the Silurian and Early Devonian intrusion age of the plutonic and volcanic rocks and (d) the U–Pb ages of the Middle Devonian high-grade metamorphism. The East European Platform-related part of the Mid-German-Crystalline Zone is interpreted as a micro-continent, which drifted through the Rheic Ocean to the south and collided with the Saxothuringian (Armorican Terrane Assemblage) during the Early Devonian. Such large-scale tectonic transport from the northern continent to the southern continent is also known from the SW Iberia, where Laurussia-related metasediments of the Rheic suture zone are explained by a large scale tectonic escape (Braid et al. J Geol Soc Lond 168:383–392, 2011).
In partially molten regions inside the earth melt buoyancy may trigger upwelling of both solid and fluid phases, i.e. diapirism. If the melt is allowed to move separately with respect to the matrix, melt perturbations may evolve into solitary porosity waves. While diapirs may form on a wide range of scales, porosity waves are restricted to sizes of a few times the compaction length. Thus, the size of a partially molten perturbation controls whether a diapir or a porosity wave will emerge. We study the transition from diapiric rise to solitary porosity waves by solving the two-phase flow equations of conservation of mass and momentum in 2D with porosity dependent matrix viscosity. We systematically vary the initial size of a porosity perturbation from 1 to 100 times the compaction length. If the perturbation is much larger than a regular solitary wave, its Stokes velocity is large and therefore faster than the segregating melt. Consequently, the fluid is not able to form a porosity wave and a diapir emerges. For small perturbations solitary waves emerge, either with a positive or negative vertical matrix velocity inside. In between the diapir and solitary wave regimes we observe a third regime of solitary wave induced focusing of melt. In these cases, diapirism is dominant but the fluid is still fast enough to locally build up small solitary waves which rise slightly faster than the diapir and form finger like structures at the front of the diapir. In our numerical simulations the width of these fingers is controlled by the compaction length or the grid size, whichever is larger. In cases where the compaction length becomes similar to or smaller than the grid size the finger-like leading solitary porosity waves are no more properly resolved, and too big and too fast waves may be the result. Therefore, one should be careful in large scale two-phase flow modelling with melt focusing especially when compaction length and grid size are of similar order.
The analysis of charcoal fragments in peat and lake sediments is the most widely used approach to reconstruct past biomass burning. With a few exceptions, this method typically relies on the quantification of the total charcoal content of the sediment. To enhance charcoal analyses for the reconstruction of past fire regimes, and to make the method more relevant to studies of both plant evolution and fire management, more information must be extracted from charcoal particles. Here, I burned in the laboratory seven fuel types comprising 17 species from boreal Siberia, and build on published schemes to develop morphometric and finer diagnostic classifications of the experimentally charred particles. As most of the species used in this study are common to Northern Hemisphere forests and peatlands, these results can be directly applicable over a broad geographical scale. Results show that the effect of temperature on charcoal production is fuel dependent. Graminoids and Sphagnum, and wood (trunk) lose the most mass at low burn temperatures, whereas heathland shrub leaves, brown moss, and ferns retain the most mass at high burn temperatures. In contrast to the wood of trunk, the wood of twigs retained their mass at intermediate temperature. This suggests that species with low mass retention at hotter burning temperatures might be underrepresented in the fossil charcoal record. Charred particle aspect ratio (L/W) appeared to be the strongest indicator of the fuel type burnt. Graminoid charcoals are more elongate than those of all other fuel types, leaf charcoals are the shortest and bulkiest, and twig and wood charcoals are intermediate. Finer diagnostic features were the most useful in distinguishing between wood, graminoid, and leaf particles, but further distinctions within these fuel types are difficult. High-aspect-ratio particles dominated by graminoid and Sphagnum morphologies are robust indicators of cooler surface fires. Contrastingly, abundant wood and leaf morphologies and low-aspect-ratio particles likely indicate higher-temperature fires. However, the overlapping morphologies of leaves and wood from trees and shrubs make it hard to distinguish between high-intensity surface fires combusting living shrubs and dead wood and leaves or high-intensity crown fires combusting living trees. Despite these limitations, the combined use of charred-particle aspect ratios and fuel morphotypes can aid in more robustly interpreting changes in fuel source and fire type, thereby substantially refining histories of past wildfires. Further fields of investigation to improve the interpretation of the fossil charcoal records will require: i) More in-depth knowledge of plant anatomy for a better determination of fuel sources; ii) Relate the proportion of particular charcoal morphotypes to the quantity of biomass; iii) Link the chemical composition of fuels, combustion temperature, and charcoal production. The advanced use of image-recognition software to collect data on other charcoal features could also aid in extracting fire temperatures as well as a change in particles morphology and morphometry during particles transportation.
In the last decade, the Climate Limited-area Modeling (CLM) Community has contributed to the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) with an extensive set of regional climate simulations. Using several versions of the COSMO-CLM community model, ERA-Interim reanalysis and eight Global Climate Models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) were dynamically downscaled with horizontal grid spacings of 0.44◦(∼50 km), 0.22◦ (∼25 km) and 0.11◦ (∼12 km) over the CORDEX domains Europe, South Asia, East Asia, Australasia and Africa. This major effort resulted in 80 regional climate simulations publicly available through the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) web portals for use in impact studies and climate scenario assessments. Here we review the production of these simulations and assess their results in terms of mean near-surface temperature and precipitation to aid the future design of the COSMO-CLM model simulations. It is found that a domain-specific parameter tuning is beneficial, while increasing horizontal model resolution (from 50 to 25 or 12 km grid spacing) alone does not always improve the performance of the simulation. Moreover, the COSMO-CLM performance depends on the driving data. This is generally more important than the dependence on horizontal resolution, model version and configuration. Our results emphasize the importance of performing regional climate projections in a coordinated way, where guidance from both the global (GCM) and regional (RCM) climate modelling communities is needed to increase the reliability of the GCM-RCM modelling chain.
In this study, we determine spectral characteristics and amplitude decays of wind turbine induced seismic signals in the far field of a wind farm (WF) close to Uettingen/Germany. Average power spectral densities (PSD) are calculated from 10 min time segments extracted from (up to) 6-months of continuous recordings at 19 seismic stations, positioned along an 8 km profile starting from the WF. We identify 7 distinct PSD peaks in the frequency range between 1 Hz and 8 Hz that can be observed to at least 4 km distance; lower-frequency peaks are detectable up to the end of the profile. At distances between 300 m and 4 km the PSD amplitude decay can be described by a power law with exponent b. The measured b-values exhibit a linear frequency dependence and range from b = 0.39 at 1.14 Hz to b = 3.93 at 7.6 Hz. In a second step, the seismic radiation and amplitude decays are modeled using an analytical approach which approximates the surface-wave field. Since we observe temporally varying phase differences between seismograms recorded directly at the base of the individual wind turbines (WTs), source-signal phase information is included in the modeling approach. We show that phase differences between source signals have significant effects on the seismic radiation pattern and amplitude decays. Therefore, we develop a phase-shift-elimination-method to handle the challenge of choosing representative source characteristics as an input for the modeling. To optimize the fitting of modeled and observed amplitude decay curves, we perform a grid search to constrain the two model parameters, i.e., the seismic shear wave velocity and quality factor. The comparison of modeled and observed amplitude decays for the 7 prominent frequencies shows very good agreement and allows to constrain shear velocities and quality factors for a two-layer model of the subsurface. The approach is generalized to predict amplitude decays and radiation patterns for WFs of arbitrary geometry.
Hyrrokkin sarcophaga is a parasitic foraminifer that is commonly found in cold-water coral reefs where it infests the file clam Acesta excavata and the scleractinian coral Lophelia pertusa. Here, we present measurements of the elemental and isotopic composition of this parasitic foraminifer for the first time, analyzed by inductively coupled optical emission spectrometry (ICP-OES), electron probe micro analysis (EPMA) and mass spectrometry (MS). Our results reveal that the geochemical signature of H. sarcophaga depends on the host organism it infests. Sr/Ca ratios are 1.1 mmol mol-1 higher in H. sarcophaga that infest L. pertusa, which could be an indication that dissolved host carbonate material is utilised in shell calcification, given that the aragonite of L. pertusa has a naturally higher Sr concentration compared to the calcite of A. excavata.Similarly, we measure 3.1 ‰ lower δ13C and 0.25 ‰ lower δ18O values in H. sarcophaga that lived on20 L. pertusa, which might be caused by the direct uptake of the host’s carbonate material with a more negative isotopic composition or different pH regimes in these foraminifera (pH can exert a control on the extent of CO2 hydration/hydroxylation) due to the uptake of body fluids of the host. We also observe higher Mn/Ca ratios in foraminifers that lived on A. excavata but did not penetrate the host shell compared to specimen that penetrated the shell, which could be interpreted as a change in food source, changes in the calcification rate, Rayleigh fractionation or changing oxygen conditions. While our measurements provide an interesting insight into the calcification process of this unusual foraminifer, these data also indicate that the geochemistry of this parasitic foraminifer is unlikely to be a reliable indicator of paleoenvironmental conditions using Sr/Ca, Mn/Ca, δ18O or δ13C unless the host organism is known and its geochemical composition can be accounted for.
National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (GHGI) are submitted annually to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). They are estimated in compliance with Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) methodological guidance using activity data, emission factors and facility-level measurements. For some sources, the outputs from these calculations are very uncertain. Inverse modelling techniques that use high-quality, long-term measurements of atmospheric gases have been developed to provide independent verification of national GHGI. This is considered good practice by the IPCC as it helps national inventory compilers to verify reported emissions and to reduce emission uncertainty. Emission estimates from the InTEM (Inversion Technique for Emissions Modelling) model are presented for the UK for the hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) reported to the UNFCCC (HFC-125, HFC-134a, HFC-143a, HFC-152a, HFC-23, HFC-32, HFC-227ea, HFC-245fa, HFC-43-10mee and HFC-365mfc). These HFCs have high Global Warming Potentials (GWPs) and the global background mole fractions of all but two are increasing, thus highlighting their relevance to the climate and a need for increasing the accuracy of emission estimation for regulatory purposes. This study presents evidence that the long-term annual increase in growth of HFC-134a has stopped and is now decreasing. For HFC-32 there is an early indication its rapid global growth period has ended, and there is evidence that the annual increase in global growth for HFC-125 has slowed from 2018. The inverse modelling results indicate that the UK implementation of European Union regulation of HFC emissions has been successful in initiating a decline in UK emissions in the since 2018. Comparison of the total InTEM UK HFC emissions in 2020 with the average from 2009–2012 shows a drop of 35%, indicating progress toward the target of a 79% decrease in sales by 2030. The total InTEM HFC emission estimates (2008–2018) are on average 73 (62–83)% of, or 4.3 (2.7–5.9) Tg CO2-eq yr−1 lower than, the total HFC emission estimates from the UK GHGI inventory. There are also significant discrepancies between the two estimates for the individual HFCs.
The endemic argan tree (Argania spinosa) populations in southern Morocco are highly degraded due to overbrowsing, illegal firewood extraction and the expansion of intensive agriculture. Bare areas between the isolated trees increase due to limited regrowth; however, it is unknown if the trees influence the soil of the intertree areas. Hypothetically, spatial differences in soil parameters of the intertree area should result from the translocation of litter or soil particles (by runoff and erosion or wind drift) from canopy-covered areas to the intertree areas. In total, 385 soil samples were taken around the tree from the trunk along the tree drip line (within and outside the tree area) and the intertree area between two trees in four directions (upslope, downslope and in both directions parallel to the slope) up to 50 m distance from the tree. They were analysed for gravimetric soil water content, pH, electrical conductivity, percolation stability, total nitrogen content (TN), content of soil organic carbon (SOC) and C/N ratio. A total of 74 tension disc infiltrometer experiments were performed near the tree drip line, within and outside the tree area, to measure the unsaturated hydraulic conductivity. We found that the tree influence on its surrounding intertree area is limited, with, e.g., SOC and TN content decreasing significantly from tree trunk (4.4 % SOC and 0.3 % TN) to tree drip line (2.0 % SOC and 0.2 % TN). However, intertree areas near the tree drip line (1.3 % SOC and 0.2 % TN) differed significantly from intertree areas between two trees (1.0 % SOC and 0.1 % TN) yet only with a small effect. Trends for spatial patterns could be found in eastern and downslope directions due to wind drift and slope wash. Soil water content was highest in the north due to shade from the midday sun; the influence extended to the intertree areas. The unsaturated hydraulic conductivity also showed significant differences between areas within and outside the tree area near the tree drip line. This was the case on sites under different land usages (silvopastoral and agricultural), slope gradients or tree densities. Although only limited influence of the tree on its intertree area was found, the spatial pattern around the tree suggests that reforestation measures should be aimed around tree shelters in northern or eastern directions with higher soil water content or TN or SOC content to ensure seedling survival, along with measures to prevent overgrazing.
Late Paleozoic (Variscan) magmatism is widespread in Central Europe. The Lusatian Block is located in the NE Bohemian Massif and it is part of the Saxothuringian Zone of the Variscan orogen. It is bordered by two major NW-trending shear zones, the Intra-Sudetic Fault Zone towards NE and the Elbe Fault Zone towards SW. The scarce Variscan igneous rocks of the Lusatian Block are situated close to these faults. We investigated 19 samples from Variscan plutonic and volcanic rocks of the Lusatian Block, considering all petrological varieties (biotite-bearing granites from the Koenigshain and Stolpen plutons, amphibole-bearing granites from three boreholes, several volcanic dykes, and two volcanites from the intramontane Weissig basin). We applied whole-rock geochemistry (18 samples) and zircon evaporation dating (19 samples). From the evaporation data, we selected six representative samples for additional zircon SHRIMP and CA–ID–TIMS dating. For the Koenigshain pluton, possible protoliths were identified using whole-rock Nd-isotopes, and zircon Hf- and O-isotopes. The new age data allow a subdivision of Variscan igneous rocks in the Lusatian Block into two distinct magmatic episodes. The spatial relation of the two age groups to either the Elbe Fault Zone (298–299 Ma) or the Intra-Sudetic Fault Zone (312–313 Ma) together with reports on the fault-bound character of the dated intrusions suggests an interpretation as two major post-collisional faulting episodes. This assumption of two distinct magmatic periods is confirmed by a compilation of recently published zircon U–Pb CA–ID–TIMS data on further Variscan igneous rocks from the Saxothuringian Zone. New geochemical data allow us to exclude a dominant sedimentary protolith for the Koenigshain pluton as supposed by previous investigations. This conclusion is mainly based on new O- and Hf-isotope data on zircon and the scarcity of inherited zircons. Instead, acid or intermediate igneous rocks are supposed as the main source for these I-type granitoids from the Koenigshain pluton.
U–Pb age spectra of detrital zircons related to the East European Platform could be traced in paragneiss through the whole Mid-German-Crystalline Zone (Variscides, Central Europe) from the Odenwald via the Spessart to the Ruhla crystalline forming an exotic unit between Armorica and Laurussia. The depositional ages of the paragneiss are defined by the youngest age of the detrital zircons and the oldest intrusion ages as Ordovician to Silurian. The Ediacaran dominated age spectrum of detrital zircons from the paragneiss of the East Odenwald suggests the latter to be derived from the shelf of the East European Platform (Baltica), which was influenced by the 1.5 Ga old detritus delivered from a giant intrusion (Mazury granitoid, Poland). The detrital zircon age spectrum of the lower Palaeozoic paragneiss of the East Odenwald and sandstone of the northern Holy Cross Mountains are identical. The pure Sveconorwegian spectrum of the lower Palaeozoic quartzite from the Spessart, (Kirchner and Albert Int J Earth Sci 2020) and the Ruhla (Zeh and Gerdes Gondwana Res 17:254–263, 2010) could be sourced from Bornholm and southern Sweden. A U–Pb age spectrum with 88% Palaeozoic detrital zircons from a volcano-sedimentary rock of the East Odenwald is interpreted to be derived from a Silurian magmatic arc (46%), which was probably generated during the drift of the Mid-German-Crystalline Zone micro-continent to the south. A tentative plate tectonic model of Mid-German-Crystalline Zone is presented taking into account (a) the East European Platform related age spectra of the detrital zircons (b) the Ordovician to Silurian depositional age of the metasediments (c) the Silurian and Early Devonian intrusion age of the plutonic and volcanic rocks and (d) the U–Pb ages of the Middle Devonian high-grade metamorphism. The East European Platform-related part of the Mid-German-Crystalline Zone is interpreted as a micro-continent, which drifted through the Rheic Ocean to the south and collided with the Saxothuringian (Armorican Terrane Assemblage) during the Early Devonian. Such large-scale tectonic transport from the northern continent to the southern continent is also known from the SW Iberia, where Laurussia-related metasediments of the Rheic suture zone are explained by a large scale tectonic escape (Braid et al. J Geol Soc Lond 168:383–392, 2011).
Questions: Habitat islands are often characterized by the presence of more or less sharp boundaries to adjacent matrix habitats. However, knowledge on boundaries of natural habitat islands is scarce, especially regarding patterns of beta diversity and its two underlying components: species turnover and nestedness. We therefore aim to quantify the effects of fine-scaled and sharp boundaries of quartz islands (quartz gravel-covered soils) on the different components of plant beta diversity and how they are linked to different soil environmental drivers. Location: Knersvlakte, Western Cape, South Africa. Methods: We sampled plant species richness in 56 fine-scale transects of 6 m × 1 m plots across eight different boundary types (four quartz island to matrix, four between habitats on quartz islands). Soil depth and chemistry (pH, electrical conductivity) were analyzed for each 1 m2 plot. Differences in the two beta diversity components (turnover and nestedness) for each boundary type were tested by t tests. We used linear models to test relationships between species and environmental dissimilarity. Results: All boundary types showed high beta diversity. Species turnover was the prevailing component for six boundary types, the nestedness component was only important for two boundary types. We found a significant linear increase of species dissimilarity with increasing dissimilarity in soil pH and distinct plant communities for the habitat types, but no significant increase for electrical conductivity or soil depth. Conclusions: The spatial distinctiveness of the quartz islands leads to sharp boundaries, which result in high beta diversity, mainly through species turnover. This reflects the high levels of diversification and adaptation of the local plant communities. Nestedness occurred at two boundaries to the matrix, indicating that the latter does not necessarily represent an impermeable boundary for all species of the respective ecosystem. Studying diversity patterns across boundaries contributes to the question of applicability of island biogeography theory to habitat islands.
Abstract: Subaqueous carbonates from the Devils Hole caves (southwestern USA) provide a continuous Holocene to Pleistocene North American paleoclimate record. The accuracy of this record relies on two assumptions: That carbonates precipitated close to isotope equilibrium and that groundwater temperature did not change significantly in the last 570 thousand years. Here, we investigate these assumptions using dual clumped isotope thermometry. This method relies on simultaneous analyses of carbonate ∆47 and ∆48 values and provides information on the existence and extent of kinetic isotope fractionation. Our results confirm the hypothesis that calcite precipitation occurred close to oxygen and clumped isotope equilibrium during the last half million years in Devils Hole. In addition, we provide evidence that aquifer temperatures varied by less than ±1°C during this interval. Thus, the Devils Hole calcite δ18O time series exclusively represents changes in groundwater δ18O values. Plain Language Summary: The oxygen isotope composition of cave carbonates records changes in Earth's climate. However, the reliability of such records depends on how stable the carbonate precipitation environment was. Here, we use a novel method called dual clumped isotope thermometry that can provide simultaneous information on a carbonate's growth temperature and whether any additional fractionation processes affected its oxygen and clumped isotope signatures. Specifically, we investigated the Devils Hole caves, which provide a reference oxygen isotope time series for North America. We find that groundwater temperature did not change significantly in the last half-million years. Variations in the oxygen isotope composition of the deposited carbonates solely reflect variations in the oxygen isotope composition of the groundwater.
Toward parametrization of precipitating shallow cumulus cloud organization via moisture variance
(2021)
The influence of the initial vertical moisture profile on precipitating shallow cumulus cloud organization in terms of the column-averaged moisture variance is investigated using large-eddy simulations. Five idealized simulations based on the Rain in Cumulus over the Ocean field experiment with different initial moisture profiles are investigated. All cases simulate precipitating shallow cumulus convection in a marine sub-tropical region under large-scale subsidence. The results show that the moisture variance is mainly generated through the interaction of the moisture flux and the moisture gradient in the gradient production term at the top of the boundary layer. The development is characterized by three regimes: initial, transition, and quasi-steady regime. During the initial regime, the moisture gradient is built up by moisture accumulation until precipitating convection starts. Within the transition regime, precipitation enables mesoscale cloud organization with enhanced convective activity and moisture fluxes. The moisture variance increases from the moist to the dry initial moisture profiles. In a following quasi-steady regime, the moisture variance is approximately preserved. Thereby, the initial moisture gradient between the average sub-cloud layer and the free atmosphere is found to be an important factor for the generation of the quasi-steady column-averaged moisture variance. The result suggests that a resolved-scale variable like the moisture gradient can be used to estimate the quasi-steady state conditions resulting from cloud organization. This finding may serve as a starting point for the parametrization of the subgrid scale cloud organization caused by precipitating shallow convection.
The goal of limited area models (LAMs) is to downscale coarse-gridded general circulation model output to represent small-scale features of weather and climate. The LAM needs information from the driving coarse-gridded model passing through its lateral boundaries. The treatment of this information transfer causes inconsistencies between driving and nested models and, subsequently, issues in regional weather and climate simulations. This work examines errors arising from choices taken by the modeler (temporal update frequency of boundary data, spatial resolution jump, and numerical lateral boundary formulation) systematically in an idealized simulation environment. So-called Big-Brother Experiments were performed with the LAM COSMO-CLM (0.11° grid spacing). A baroclinic wave in a zonal channel was simulated over flat terrain with and without a Gaussian hill. The results reveal that the quality of the driving data, here represented by simulations only differing from the LAM simulations by reduced spatial resolution, dominates the performance of the nested model. Consequently, at the simulated mesoscale, the performance of the nested small-scale model simulations is weakly sensitive to the numerical lateral boundary formulation (Davies relaxation or the newly implemented, computationally less demanding Mesinger Eta-model formulation). The performance sensitivity to boundary update frequency and resolution jump is small when at least 6-hourly updates and a resolution jump factor of maximally six is used. Gaussian hill LAM simulations illustrated the strength of downscaling; they can represent small-scale features missing in the coarse-scale driving simulations. In the idealized simulation experiments, spectral nudging is not advisable as it imprints the driving models deficits on the nested simulation.
High-pressure single-crystal to 20 GPa and powder diffraction measurements to 50 GPa, show that the structure of Pb2SnO4 strongly distorts on compression with an elongation of one axis. A structural phase transition occurs between 10 GPa and 12 GPa, with a change of space group from Pbam to Pnam. The resistivity decreases by more than six orders of magnitude when pressure is increased from ambient conditions to 50 GPa. This insulator-to-semiconductor transition is accompanied by a reversible appearance change from transparent to opaque. Density functional theory-based calculations show that at ambient conditions the channels in the structure host the stereochemically-active Pb 6s2 lone electron pairs. On compression the lone electron pairs form bonds between Pb2+ ions. Also provided is an assignment of irreducible representations to the experimentally observed Raman bands.
This article presents the findings from systematically reviewing 26 empirical research studies published from 2005 to 2014 on the use of GIS for learning and teaching. By employing methods of narrative synthesis and qualitative content analysis, the study gives evidence about the state of knowledge of competence-based GIS education. The results explain what factors and variables effect GIS learning in terms of technology use, major subject contents, learning contexts, and didactic and pedagogical aspects. They also show what facets of knowledge, process skills, and affect the research literature has investigated. The analysis of the type and quality of the methods used indicates that current GIS education research is a heterogeneous field that needs a systematic research framework for future efforts, according to empirical education research.
A general circulation model is used to study the interaction between parameterized gravity waves (GWs) and large-scale Kelvin waves in the tropical stratosphere. The simulation shows that Kelvin waves with substantial amplitudes (∼10 m s−1) can significantly affect the distribution of GW drag by modulating the local shear. Furthermore, this effect is localized to regions above strong convective organizations that generate large-amplitude GWs, so that at a given altitude it occurs selectively in a certain phase of Kelvin waves. Accordingly, this effect also contributes to the zonal-mean GW drag, which is large in the middle stratosphere during the phase transition of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). Furthermore, we detect an enhancement of Kelvin-wave momentum flux due to GW drag modulated by Kelvin waves. The result implies an importance of GW dynamics coupled to Kelvin waves in the QBO progression.
Plain Language Summary: The variability of the tropical atmosphere at altitudes of about 18–40 km is dominated by a large-amplitude long-term oscillation of wind, the quasi-biennial oscillation, which has a broad impact on the climate and seasonal forecasting. This oscillation is known to be driven by various types of atmospheric waves with multiple spatial scales. Using a numerical model, this study reports a process of interaction between those waves on different scales, which has not been illuminated before. The result implies a potential importance of this process in the progression of the quasi-biennial oscillation. Proper model representations of these multiscale waves and tropical convection are required to simulate this process.
Droughts are anticipated to intensify in many parts of the world due to climate change. However, the issue of drought definition, namely the diversity of drought indices, makes it difficult to compare drought assessments. This issue is widely known, but its relative importance has never been quantitatively evaluated in comparison to other sources of uncertainty. Here, encompassing three drought categories (meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological droughts) with four temporal scales of interest, we evaluated changes in the drought frequency using multi-model and multi-scenario simulations to identify areas where the definition issue could result in pronounced uncertainties and to what extent. We investigated the disagreement in the signs of changes between drought definitions and decomposed the variance into four main factors: drought definitions, greenhouse gas concentration scenarios, global climate models, and global water models, as well as their interactions. The results show that models were the primary sources of variance over 82% of the global land area. On the other hand, the drought definition was the dominant source of variance in the remaining 17%, especially in parts of northern high-latitudes. Our results highlight specific regions where differences in drought definitions result in a large spread among projections, including areas showing opposite signs of significant changes. At a global scale, 7% of the variance resulted independently from the definition issue, and that value increased to 44% when 1st and 2nd order interactions were considered. The quantitative results suggest that by clarifying hydrological processes or sectors of interest, one could avoid these uncertainties in drought assessments to obtain a clearer picture of future drought change.
A quantitative analysis of any environment older than the instrumental record relies on proxies. Uncertainties associated with proxy reconstructions are often underestimated, which can lead to artificial conflict between different proxies, and between data and models. In this paper, using ordinary least squares linear regression as a common example, we describe a simple, robust and generalizable method for quantifying uncertainty in proxy reconstructions. We highlight the primary controls on the magnitude of uncertainty, and compare this simple estimate to equivalent estimates from Bayesian, nonparametric and fiducial statistical frameworks. We discuss when it may be possible to reduce uncertainties, and conclude that the unexplained variance in the calibration must always feature in the uncertainty in the reconstruction. This directs future research toward explaining as much of the variance in the calibration data as possible. We also advocate for a “data-forward” approach, that clearly decouples the presentation of proxy data from plausible environmental inferences.
In the last decade, the Climate Limited-area Modeling Community (CLM-Community) has contributed to the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) with an extensive set of regional climate simulations. Using several versions of the COSMO-CLM-Community model, ERA-Interim reanalysis and eight global climate models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) were dynamically downscaled with horizontal grid spacings of 0.44∘ (∼ 50 km), 0.22∘ (∼ 25 km), and 0.11∘ (∼ 12 km) over the CORDEX domains Europe, South Asia, East Asia, Australasia, and Africa. This major effort resulted in 80 regional climate simulations publicly available through the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) web portals for use in impact studies and climate scenario assessments. Here we review the production of these simulations and assess their results in terms of mean near-surface temperature and precipitation to aid the future design of the COSMO-CLM model simulations. It is found that a domain-specific parameter tuning is beneficial, while increasing horizontal model resolution (from 50 to 25 or 12 km grid spacing) alone does not always improve the performance of the simulation. Moreover, the COSMO-CLM performance depends on the driving data. This is generally more important than the dependence on horizontal resolution, model version, and configuration. Our results emphasize the importance of performing regional climate projections in a coordinated way, where guidance from both the global (GCM) and regional (RCM) climate modeling communities is needed to increase the reliability of the GCM–RCM modeling chain.
In this study, we determine spectral characteristics and amplitude decays of wind turbine induced seismic signals in the far field of a wind farm (WF) close to Uettingen, Germany. Average power spectral densities (PSDs) are calculated from 10 min time segments extracted from (up to) 6 months of continuous recordings at 19 seismic stations, positioned along an 8 km profile starting from the WF. We identify seven distinct PSD peaks in the frequency range between 1 and 8 Hz that can be observed to at least 4 km distance; lower-frequency peaks are detectable up to the end of the profile. At distances between 300 m and 4 km the PSD amplitude decay can be described by a power law with exponent b. The measured b values exhibit a linear frequency dependence and range from b=0.39 at 1.14 Hz to b=3.93 at 7.6 Hz. In a second step, the seismic radiation and amplitude decays are modeled using an analytical approach that approximates the surface wave field. Since we observe temporally varying phase differences between seismograms recorded directly at the base of the individual wind turbines (WTs), source signal phase information is included in the modeling approach. We show that phase differences between source signals have significant effects on the seismic radiation pattern and amplitude decays. Therefore, we develop a phase shift elimination method to handle the challenge of choosing representative source characteristics as an input for the modeling. To optimize the fitting of modeled and observed amplitude decay curves, we perform a grid search to constrain the two model parameters, i.e., the seismic shear wave velocity and quality factor. The comparison of modeled and observed amplitude decays for the seven prominent frequencies shows very good agreement and allows the constraint of shear velocities and quality factors for a two-layer model of the subsurface. The approach is generalized to predict amplitude decays and radiation patterns for WFs of arbitrary geometry.
Hyrrokkin sarcophaga is a parasitic foraminifera that is commonly found in cold-water coral reefs where it infests the file clam Acesta excavata and the scleractinian coral Desmophyllum pertusum (formerly known as Lophelia pertusa). Here, we present measurements of the trace element and isotopic composition of these parasitic foraminifera, analyzed by inductively coupled optical emission spectrometry (ICP-OES), electron probe microanalysis (EPMA) and mass spectrometry (gas-source MS and inductively-coupled-plasma MS). Our results reveal that the geochemical signature of H. sarcophaga depends on the host organism it infests. Sr / Ca ratios are 1.1 mmol mol−1 higher in H. sarcophaga that infest D. pertusum, which could be an indication that dissolved host carbonate material is utilized in shell calcification, given that the aragonite of D. pertusum has a naturally higher Sr concentration compared to the calcite of A. excavata. Similarly, we measure 3.1 ‰ lower δ13C and 0.25 ‰ lower δ18O values in H. sarcophaga that lived on D. pertusum, which might be caused by the direct uptake of the host's carbonate material with a more negative isotopic composition or different pH regimes in these foraminifera (pH can exert a control on the extent of CO2 hydration/hydroxylation) due to the uptake of body fluids of the host. We also observe higher Mn / Ca ratios in foraminifera that lived on A. excavata but did not penetrate the host shell compared to specimen that penetrated the shell, which could be interpreted as a change in food source, changes in the calcification rate, Rayleigh fractionation or changing oxygen conditions. While our measurements provide an interesting insight into the calcification process of this unusual foraminifera, these data also indicate that the geochemistry of this parasitic foraminifera is unlikely to be a reliable indicator of paleoenvironmental conditions using Sr / Ca, Mn / Ca, δ18O or δ13C unless the host organism is known and its geochemical composition can be accounted for.
Evidence of hydrothermal activity is reported for the Mesozoic pre- and syn-rift successions of the western Adriatic palaeomargin of the Alpine Tethys, preserved in the Western Southalpine Domain (NW Italy). The products of hydrothermal processes are represented by vein and breccia cements, as well as dolomitization and silicification of the host rocks. In the eastern part of the study area, interpreted as part of the necking zone of the continental margin, Middle Triassic dolostones and Lower Jurassic sediments are crossed by veins and hydrofracturing breccias cemented by saddle dolomite. The precipitation of dolomite cements occurred within the stratigraphic succession close to the sediment–water interface. Despite the shallow burial depth, fluid inclusion microthermometry and clumped isotopes show that hydrothermal fluids were relatively hot (80–150°C). In the western part of the study area, interpreted as part of the hyperextended distal zone, a polyphase history of host-rock fracturing is recorded, with at least two generations of veins cemented by calcite, dolomite and quartz. Vein opening and cementation occurred at shallow burial depth around the time of deposition of the syn-rift clastic succession. Fluid inclusion microthermometry on both quartz and dolomite cements indicates a fluid temperature of 90–130°C, again pointing to hydrothermal fluids. Both in Fenera-Sostegno and Montalto Dora areas, O, C and Sr isotope values, coupled with fluid inclusion and clumped isotope data, indicate that hydrothermal fluids derived from seawater interacted with crustal rocks during hydrothermal circulation. Stratigraphic and petrographic evidence, and U–Pb dating of dolomitized clasts within syn-rift sediments, document that hydrothermal fluids circulated through sediments from the latest Triassic to the Toarcian, corresponding to the entire syn-rift evolution of the western portion of the Adriatic palaeomargin. The documented hydrothermal processes are temporally correlated with regional-scale thermal events that took place in the same time interval at deeper crustal levels.
National greenhouse gas inventories (GHGIs) are submitted annually to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). They are estimated in compliance with Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) methodological guidance using activity data, emission factors and facility-level measurements. For some sources, the outputs from these calculations are very uncertain. Inverse modelling techniques that use high-quality, long-term measurements of atmospheric gases have been developed to provide independent verification of national GHGIs. This is considered good practice by the IPCC as it helps national inventory compilers to verify reported emissions and to reduce emission uncertainty. Emission estimates from the InTEM (Inversion Technique for Emission Modelling) model are presented for the UK for the hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) reported to the UNFCCC (HFC-125, HFC-134a, HFC-143a, HFC-152a, HFC-23, HFC-32, HFC-227ea, HFC-245fa, HFC-43-10mee and HFC-365mfc). These HFCs have high global warming potentials (GWPs), and the global background mole fractions of all but two are increasing, thus highlighting their relevance to the climate and a need for increasing the accuracy of emission estimation for regulatory purposes. This study presents evidence that the long-term annual increase in growth of HFC-134a has stopped and is now decreasing. For HFC-32 there is an early indication, its rapid global growth period has ended, and there is evidence that the annual increase in global growth for HFC-125 has slowed from 2018. The inverse modelling results indicate that the UK implementation of European Union regulation of HFC emissions has been successful in initiating a decline in UK emissions from 2018. Comparison of the total InTEM UK HFC emissions in 2020 with the average from 2009–2012 shows a drop of 35 %, indicating progress toward the target of a 79 % decrease in sales by 2030. The total InTEM HFC emission estimates (2008–2018) are on average 73 (62–83) % of, or 4.3 (2.7–5.9) Tg CO2-eq yr−1 lower than, the total HFC emission estimates from the UK GHGI. There are also significant discrepancies between the two estimates for the individual HFCs.
The impact of precipitation in shallow cumulus convection on the moisture variance and third-order moments of moisture is investigated with the help of large-eddy simulations. Three idealized simulations based on the Rain in Cumulus over the Ocean field experiment are analyzed: one nonprecipitating, on a smaller domain, and two precipitating cases, on a larger domain with different initial profiles of moisture. Results show that precipitation and the associated cloud organization lead to increased generation of higher-order moments (HOM) of moisture compared to the nonprecipitating case. To understand the physical mechanism and the role of individual processes in this increase, budgets of HOM of moisture are studied. Microphysics directly decreases the generation of HOM of moisture, but this effect is not dominant. The gradient production term is identified as the main source term in the HOM budgets. The influence of the gradient production term on moisture variance is further examined separately in cloud active and nonactive regions. The main contribution to the gradient production term comes from the smaller cloud active region because of the stronger moisture flux. Further analyses of the horizontal and vertical cross sections of moisture fluctuations show that the precipitation-induced downdrafts and updrafts are the main mechanism for the generation of moisture variance. The variance increase is linked to shallow dry downdraft regions with horizontal divergence in the subcloud layer, moist updrafts with horizontal convergence in the bulk cloud layer, and finally wider areas of horizontal divergence in the cloud inversion layer.
We combined biostratigraphical analyses, archaeological surveys, and Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) models to provide new insights into the relative sea-level evolution in the northeastern Aegean Sea (eastern Mediterranean). In this area, characterized by a very complex tectonic pattern, we produced a new typology of sea-level index point, based on the foraminiferal associations found in transgressive marine facies. Our results agree with the sea-level history previously produced in this region, therefore confirming the validity of this new type of index point. The expanded dataset presented in this paper further demonstrates a continuous Holocene RSL rise in this portion of the Aegean Sea. Comparing the new RSL record with the available geophysical predictions of sea-level evolution indicates that the crustal subsidence of the Samothraki Plateau and the North Aegean Trough played a major role in controlling millennial-scale sea-level evolution in the area. This major subsidence rate needs to be taken into account in the preparation of local future scenarios of sea-level rise in the coming decades.
The Weissert Event ~133 million years ago marked a profound global cooling that punctuated the Early Cretaceous greenhouse. We present modelling, high-resolution bulk organic carbon isotopes and chronostratigraphically calibrated sea surface temperature (SSTs) based on an organic paleothermometer (the TEX86 proxy), which capture the Weissert Event in the semi-enclosed Weddell Sea basin, offshore Antarctica (paleolatitude ~54 °S; paleowater depth ~500 meters). We document a ~3–4 °C drop in SST coinciding with the Weissert cold end, and converge the Weddell Sea data, climate simulations and available worldwide multi-proxy based temperature data towards one unifying solution providing a best-fit between all lines of evidence. The outcome confirms a 3.0 °C ( ±1.7 °C) global mean surface cooling across the Weissert Event, which translates into a ~40% drop in atmospheric pCO2 over a period of ~700 thousand years. Consistent with geologic evidence, this pCO2 drop favoured the potential build-up of local polar ice.
In partially molten regions inside the Earth, melt buoyancy may trigger upwelling of both solid and fluid phases, i.e., diapirism. If the melt is allowed to move separately with respect to the matrix, melt perturbations may evolve into solitary porosity waves. While diapirs may form on a wide range of scales, porosity waves are restricted to sizes of a few times the compaction length. Thus, the size of a partially molten perturbation in terms of compaction length controls whether material is dominantly transported by porosity waves or by diapirism. We study the transition from diapiric rise to solitary porosity waves by solving the two-phase flow equations of conservation of mass and momentum in 2D with porosity-dependent matrix viscosity. We systematically vary the initial size of a porosity perturbation from 1.8 to 120 times the compaction length. If the perturbation is of the order of a few compaction lengths, a single solitary wave will emerge, either with a positive or negative vertical matrix flux. If melt is not allowed to move separately to the matrix a diapir will emerge. In between these end members we observe a regime where the partially molten perturbation will split up into numerous solitary waves, whose phase velocity is so low compared to the Stokes velocity that the whole swarm of waves will ascend jointly as a diapir, just slowly elongating due to a higher amplitude main solitary wave. Only if the melt is not allowed to move separately to the matrix will no solitary waves build up, but as soon as two-phase flow is enabled solitary waves will eventually emerge. The required time to build them up increases nonlinearly with the perturbation radius in terms of compaction length and might be too long to allow for them in nature in many cases.
The analysis of charcoal fragments in peat and lake sediments is the most widely used approach to reconstruct past biomass burning. With a few exceptions, this method typically relies on the quantification of the total charcoal content of the sediment. To enhance charcoal analyses for the reconstruction of past fire regimes and make the method more relevant to studies of both plant evolution and fire management, the extraction of more information from charcoal particles is critical. Here, I used a muffle oven to burn seven fuel types comprising 17 species from boreal Siberia (near Teguldet village), which are also commonly found in the Northern Hemisphere, and built on published schemes to develop morphometric and finer diagnostic classifications of the experimentally charred particles. I then combined these results with those from fossil charcoal from a peat core taken from the same location (Ulukh-Chayakh mire) in order to demonstrate the relevance of these experiments to the fossil charcoal records. Results show that graminoids, Sphagnum, and wood (trunk) lose the most mass at low burn temperatures (<300 ∘C), whereas heathland shrub leaves, brown moss, and ferns lose the most mass at high burn temperatures. This suggests that species with low mass retention in high-temperature fires are likely to be under-represented in the fossil charcoal record. The charcoal particle aspect ratio appeared to be the strongest indicator of the fuel type burnt. Graminoid charcoal particles are the most elongate (6.7–11.5), with a threshold above 6 that may be indicative of wetland graminoids; leaves are the shortest and bulkiest (2.1–3.5); and twigs and wood are intermediate (2.0–5.2). Further, the use of fine diagnostic features was more successful in separating wood, graminoids, and leaves, but it was difficult to further differentiate these fuel types due to overlapping features. High-aspect-ratio particles, dominated by graminoid and Sphagnum morphologies, may be robust indicators of low-temperature surface fires, whereas abundant wood and leaf morphologies as well as low-aspect-ratio particles are indicative of higher-temperature fires. However, the overlapping morphologies of leaves and wood from trees and shrubs make it hard to distinguish between high-intensity surface fires, combusting living shrubs and dead wood and leaves, and high-intensity crown fires that have burnt living trees. Distinct particle shape may also influence charcoal transportation, with elongated particles (graminoids) potentially having a more heterogeneous distribution and being deposited farther away from the origin of fire than the rounder, polygonal leaf particles. Despite these limitations, the combined use of charred-particle aspect ratios and fuel morphotypes can aid in the more robust interpretation of fuel source and fire-type changes. Lastly, I highlight the further investigations needed to refine the histories of past wildfires.
Deformation in the upper mantle is localized in shear zones. In order to localize strain, weakening has to occur, which can be achieved by a reduction in grain size. In order for grains to remain small and preserve shear zones, phases have to mix. Phase mixing leads to dragging or pinning of grain boundaries which slows down or halts grain growth. Multiple phase mixing processes have been suggested to be important during shear zone evolution. The importance of a phase mixing process depends on the geodynamic setting. This study presents detailed microstructural analysis of spinel bearing shear zones from the Erro-Tobbio peridotite (Italy) that formed during pre-alpine rifting. The first stage of deformation occurred under melt-free conditions, during which clinopyroxene and olivine porphyroclasts dynamically recrystallized. With ongoing extension, silica-undersaturated melt percolated through the shear zones and reacted with the clinopyroxene neoblasts, forming olivine–clinopyroxene layers. Furthermore, the melt reacted with orthopyroxene porphyroclasts, forming fine-grained polymineralic layers (ultramylonites) adjacent to the porphyroclasts. Strain rates in these layers are estimated to be about an order of magnitude faster than within the olivine-rich matrix. This study demonstrates the importance of melt-rock reactions for grain size reduction, phase mixing and strain localization in these shear zones.
With the Earth system being about to leave Holocene conditions and thus the known safe operating space for humanity, frameworks such as the Planetary Boundaries (PBs) and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) provide quantitative metrics to guide sustainability transformations. In order to strive, not only for compliance with the PBs but also for societal well-being, some approaches attempt to combine both PBs and SDGs within a single assessment. We focus on two prominent examples, the “Doughnut” by Kate Raworth and the #SDGinPB project of the 2018 report to the Club of Rome, which are not only aimed at public outreach, but also at guiding policy-making. To meet these objectives, the approaches should possess a certain accuracy in determining the progress in achieving the SDGs and in complying with the PBs. We evaluate, by using a multi-indicator approach for comparison, whether both approaches’ limited set of indicators can still represent the SDGs’ complexity. This comparative approach estimates the progress in achieving SDGs, especially in the Global North, to be significantly lower. Based on these results and against the approaches’ purposes, we discuss their simplifications and at which point the results are no longer reliable. We conclude that global assessments can be an important factor in initiating transformative processes by stimulating public discourse, but that the actual implementation of these would require approaches with greater recognition of local particularities.
We combine structural analysis of fractures with 22 U–Pb dates measured in fracture-filling carbonate cements from bed-parallel fibrous calcite veins (beef), conjugated veins and faults within the Vaca Muerta Formation along the Andean fold and thrust belt in the Neuquén Basin. The measured ages constrain accurately the relationships between overpressures caused by hydrocarbon generation and Andean compression as mechanisms for natural fracturing and vein formation. Two generations of fibres have been identified in beef. The first one, consists of dark fibres from the inner zones, which are perpendicular to bedding and contain abundant cone-in-cone structures and hydrocarbon inclusions. U–Pb dating of these fibres yielded Early to Late Cretaceous ages from 116.7 ± 17.7 to 78.8 ± 10.2 Ma. The second generation of fibres corresponds to the outer zones and consists of white fibres oblique to bedding, indicating growth during layer-parallel shortening. Bed-perpendicular veins cutting beef yielded Late Cretaceous-late Palaeocene dates from 72.8 ± 22.4 to 60.9 ± 10.4 Ma. Eocene ages from 52.0 ± 2.9 to 42.2 ± 18.9 Ma were measured in bed-parallel slip surfaces and reverse and strike-slip faults, whereas Miocene dates from 13.9 ± 2.6 to 6.2 ± 1.1 Ma were measured in E-W calcite veins. U–Pb dating of veins, structural analysis of fractures and subsidence curves, indicate that beef inner zones formed in the oil window during burial of the Neuquén basin, and that tectonic stresses could enhance their formation. Beef outer zones and bed-perpendicular veins formed during E-W Late Cretaceous-late Palaeocene layer-parallel shortening. Contrarily, late Palaeocene-late Eocene bed-parallel slip surfaces and faults and Miocene E-W veins formed during NE-SW and E-W syn-to post-folding deformation, respectively. In both cases, syn-to post-folding compression occurred synchronously with forelandward migration of magmatic activity attributed to flat subduction of the Pacific slab beneath the Andes.