550 Geowissenschaften
Refine
Year of publication
- 2021 (85)
- 2016 (67)
- 2020 (58)
- 2019 (41)
- 2015 (40)
- 2013 (38)
- 2010 (37)
- 2011 (37)
- 2022 (37)
- 2008 (35)
- 2014 (34)
- 2009 (31)
- 2017 (29)
- 2012 (28)
- 2018 (27)
- 2005 (15)
- 2003 (14)
- 2006 (13)
- 2002 (11)
- 2007 (11)
- 2023 (11)
- 2024 (9)
- 1974 (8)
- 1980 (8)
- 1982 (7)
- 1998 (7)
- 1993 (6)
- 1995 (6)
- 1986 (5)
- 1996 (5)
- 2004 (5)
- 1891 (4)
- 1895 (4)
- 1898 (4)
- 1973 (4)
- 1981 (4)
- 1991 (4)
- 2000 (4)
- 2001 (4)
- 1885 (3)
- 1901 (3)
- 1905 (3)
- 1908 (3)
- 1979 (3)
- 1984 (3)
- 1987 (3)
- 1992 (3)
- 1999 (3)
- 1761 (2)
- 1829 (2)
- 1832 (2)
- 1877 (2)
- 1893 (2)
- 1897 (2)
- 1903 (2)
- 1911 (2)
- 1915 (2)
- 1924 (2)
- 1950 (2)
- 1964 (2)
- 1967 (2)
- 1969 (2)
- 1976 (2)
- 1977 (2)
- 1983 (2)
- 1988 (2)
- 1777 (1)
- 1785 (1)
- 1834 (1)
- 1835 (1)
- 1838 (1)
- 1839 (1)
- 1853 (1)
- 1865 (1)
- 1869 (1)
- 1872 (1)
- 1875 (1)
- 1880 (1)
- 1883 (1)
- 1889 (1)
- 1894 (1)
- 1899 (1)
- 1904 (1)
- 1907 (1)
- 1909 (1)
- 1910 (1)
- 1913 (1)
- 1914 (1)
- 1919 (1)
- 1921 (1)
- 1922 (1)
- 1925 (1)
- 1936 (1)
- 1940 (1)
- 1947 (1)
- 1958 (1)
- 1961 (1)
- 1962 (1)
- 1971 (1)
- 1978 (1)
- 1990 (1)
- 1997 (1)
Document Type
- Article (896) (remove)
Has Fulltext
- yes (896)
Keywords
- Climate change (7)
- climate change (7)
- COSMO-CLM (6)
- Palaeoclimate (6)
- Atmospheric chemistry (5)
- Biogeochemistry (5)
- Palaeoceanography (5)
- precipitation (5)
- loess (4)
- Clausius–Clapeyron scaling (3)
Institute
- Geowissenschaften (546)
- Geowissenschaften / Geographie (100)
- Biodiversität und Klima Forschungszentrum (BiK-F) (59)
- Senckenbergische Naturforschende Gesellschaft (51)
- Extern (22)
- Biowissenschaften (21)
- Geographie (15)
- Präsidium (12)
- Institut für Ökologie, Evolution und Diversität (9)
- Physik (6)
Wasser weltweit : wie groß sind die globalen Süßwasserressourcen, und wie nutzt sie der Mensch?
(2008)
Ohne Wasser kein Leben – die ersten organischen Moleküle entwickelten sich im Wasser, aus Wasser plus Kohlenstoff und Stickstoff, und auch heute brauchen Pflanzen, Tiere und Menschen viel Wasser, um zu überleben. Die Erde ist der einzige Planet mit flüssigem Wasser und der einzige Planet, auf dem es Leben gibt, zumindest in unserem Sonnensystem. Zwei Umstände bewirken gemeinsam, dass nur die Erde die richtige Temperatur für flüssiges Wasser an ihrer Oberfl äche hat: ihr Abstand zur Sonne und ihre Masse. Aufgrund ihrer ausreichend großen Masse kann sie eine Atmosphäre halten, die die mittlere Oberflächentemperatur von –18 °C auf +15 °C erhöht. Nur daher konnte sich im Frühstadium der Erdentstehung das Wasser, das in großen Mengen aus dem Erdinnern ausgaste, an der Oberfläche als flüssiges Wasser in den Ozeanen sammeln.
Wolken haben einen maßgeblichen Einfluss auf den Wasserhaushalt der Erde, das Wettergeschehen und das Klima. Sie wissenschaftlich zu beschreiben, ist schwierig – und das erschwert die Niederschlagsvorhersage ebenso wie die Klimamodellierung. Wichtig für die Entstehung von Regen in unseren Breiten sind Eispartikel. Sie machen einen großen Teil der Wolken aus. Doch wie bilden sie sich, und warum sind sie für viele physikalische Prozesse in den Wolken unentbehrlich? Und schließlich: Wirkt sich menschliches Handeln auf die Wolken aus?
Staubwolken sind im Universum die Geburtsstätten neuer Sterne. Dort wiederholen sich Prozesse, die vor 4,56 Milliarden Jahren auch zur Entstehung unseres Sonnensystems geführt haben. Noch heute gibt es Zeugen aus dieser Zeit: Kometenstaub, Sternenstaub und interstellarer Staub. Die »Stardust-Mission« hat sie eingefangen, und Frankfurter Geowissenschaftler haben darin – dank modernster Labor-Analytik – erstaunliche Funde gemacht.
The Match method for the quantification of polar chemical ozone loss is investigated mainly with respect to the impact of the transport of air masses across the vortex edge. For the winter 2002/03, we show that significant transport across the vortex edge occurred and was simulated by the Chemical Lagrangian Model of the Stratosphere. In-situ observations of inert tracers and ozone from HAGAR on the Geophysica aircraft and balloon-borne sondes, and remote observations from MIPAS on the ENVISAT satellite were reproduced well by CLaMS. The model even reproduced a small vortex remnant that remained a distinct feature until June 2003 and was also observed in-situ by a balloon-borne whole air sampler. We use this CLaMS simulation to quantify the impact of transport across the vortex edge on ozone loss estimates from the Match method. We show that a time integration of the determined vortex average ozone loss rates, as performed in Match, results in a larger ozone loss than the polar vortex average ozone loss in CLaMS. The determination of the Match ozone loss rates is also influenced by the transport of air across the vortex edge. We use the model to investigate how the sampling of the ozone sondes on which Match is based represents the vortex average ozone loss rate. Both the time integration of ozone loss and the determination of ozone loss rates for Match are evaluated using the winter 2002/2003 CLaMS simulation. These impacts can explain the majority of the differences between CLaMS and Match column ozone loss. While the investigated effects somewhat reduce the apparent discrepancy in January ozone loss rates reported earlier, a distinct discrepancy between simulations and Match remains. However, its contribution to the accumulated ozone loss over the winter is not large.
The total stratospheric organic chlorine and bromine burden was derived from balloon-borne measurements in the tropics (Teresina, Brazil, 5°04´ S, 42°52´ W) in 2005. Whole air samples were collected cryogenically at altitudes between 15 and 34 km. For the first time, we report measurements of a set of 28 chlorinated and brominated substances in the tropical upper troposphere and stratosphere including ten substances with an atmospheric lifetime of less than half a year. The substances were quantified using pre-concentration techniques followed by Gas Chromatography with Mass Spectrometric detection. In the tropical tropopause layer at altitudes between 15 and 17 km we found 1.1–1.4% of the chlorine and 6–8% of the bromine to be present in the form of very short-lived organic compounds. By combining the data with tropospheric reference data and age of air observations the abundances of inorganic chlorine and bromine (Cly and Bry) were derived. At an altitude of 34 km we calculated 3062 ppt of Cly and 17.5 ppt of Bry from the decomposition of both long- and short-lived organic source gases. Furthermore we present indications for the presence of additional organic brominated substances in the tropical upper troposphere and stratosphere.
During the second part of the TROCCINOX campaign that took place in Brazil in early 2005, chemical species were measured on-board the high-altitude research aircraft Geophysica (ozone, water vapor, NO, NOy, CH4 and CO) in the altitude range up to 20 km (or up to 450 K potential temperature), i.e. spanning the entire TTL region roughly extending between 350 and 420 K. Here, analysis of transport across the TTL is performed using a new version of the Chemical Lagrangian Model of the Stratosphere (CLaMS). In this new version, the stratospheric model has been extended to the earth surface. Above the tropopause, the isentropic and cross-isentropic advection in CLaMS is driven by meteorological analysis winds and heating/cooling rates derived from a radiation calculation. Below the tropopause, the model smoothly transforms from the isentropic to the hybrid-pressure coordinate and, in this way, takes into account the effect of large-scale convective transport as implemented in the vertical wind of the meteorological analysis. As in previous CLaMS simulations, the irreversible transport, i.e. mixing, is controlled by the local horizontal strain and vertical shear rates. Stratospheric and tropospheric signatures in the TTL can be seen both in the observations and in the model. The composition of air above ≈350 K is mainly controlled by mixing on a time scale of weeks or even months. Based on CLaMS transport studies where mixing can be completely switched off, we deduce that vertical mixing, mainly driven by the vertical shear in the tropical flanks of the subtropical jets and, to some extent, in the the outflow regions of the large-scale convection, offers an explanation for the upward transport of trace species from the main convective outflow at around 350 K up to the tropical tropopause around 380 K.
The ENVISAT validation programme for the atmospheric instruments MIPAS, SCIAMACHY and GOMOS is based on a number of balloon-borne, aircraft, satellite and ground-based correlative measurements. In particular the activities of validation scientists were coordinated by ESA within the ENVISAT Stratospheric Aircraft and Balloon Campaign or ESABC. As part of a series of similar papers on other species [this issue] and in parallel to the contribution of the individual validation teams, the present paper provides a synthesis of comparisons performed between MIPAS CH4 and N2O profiles produced by the current ESA operational software (Instrument Processing Facility version 4.61 or IPF v4.61, full resolution MIPAS data covering the period 9 July 2002 to 26 March 2004) and correlative measurements obtained from balloon and aircraft experiments as well as from satellite sensors or from ground-based instruments. In the middle stratosphere, no significant bias is observed between MIPAS and correlative measurements, and MIPAS is providing a very consistent and global picture of the distribution of CH4 and N2O in this region. In average, the MIPAS CH4 values show a small positive bias in the lower stratosphere of about 5%. A similar situation is observed for N2O with a positive bias of 4%. In the lower stratosphere/upper troposphere (UT/LS) the individual used MIPAS data version 4.61 still exhibits some unphysical oscillations in individual CH4 and N2O profiles caused by the processing algorithm (with almost no regularization). Taking these problems into account, the MIPAS CH4 and N2O profiles are behaving as expected from the internal error estimation of IPF v4.61 and the estimated errors of the correlative measurements.
In the Maizuru zone nearly whole the Triassic successions are developed. The Scythian to Aniso-Ladinian strata make a continuous sequence, in which are distinguished three faunizones, Neoschizous-"Bakevellia", Hollandites-"Danubites" and Monophyllites, corresponding to Scythian, lower Anisian and Aniso-Ladinian, respectively. Main portion of the Ladinian series is lacking in this region. The earliest Carnian or Ladino-Carnian Arakuran age is newly proposed founded on the palaeontological and stratigraphical studies on the Arakura formation. In the next Sakawan (not Carnian) Nabae group, two and probably one more, faunizones are recognizable, Palaeopharus-Lima yataensis, Tosapecten-Pseudolimea, and Pleuromya-Neoschizodus. The Sakawan age is classified into two subages better than the three formerly proposed by K. ICHIKAWA. The Norian sediments are probably represented by the Nakaiso conglomerate bed, although barren in fossil. The Rhaetic strata are not found at all like other regions in Japan. From the facies-analysis, the Palaeo-Maizuru Bay during the Scythian to Aniso-Ladinian epochs and the Palaeo-Maizuru Inland Sea during the Carnian epoch are assumed. Finally, the orogenic history of the Triassic period in this zone is briefly stated.
The Tanzawa mountainland consists of a pyroclastic complex chiefly of basic composition which is intruded by a large mass of quartz-diorite at the center. This complex, well-known as the Misaka series, is the products of largescale geosynclinal volcanisms which took place during the period from the latest Oligocene to the middle Miocene in age. As compared with other geologic units, the present complex is characterized by its unusually thick accumulation of pyroclastic rocks, and by the intense hydrothermal alteration of the rocks, furnishing us an excellent section of the so-called green tuff series in the southeastern region of the Fossa Magna. Also the development of the products of interesting metamorphism of the quartz-diorite to the surrounding pyroclastic rocks is a feature uncommon in the other green tuff series of the above region. The crustal movement occurring during the volcanisms, however, make the structure of this complex highly complicate. In addition, the topographically unfavourable condition of this mountainland causes great hindrance to the geological investigation of this complex. Accordingly, the true natures of the complex remain unknown both stratigraphically and petrographically. Since 1948, the writer has been studying on the complex distributed in the eastern region of the Tanzawa massif from the volcano-stratigraphical point of view, some of the results of which have been published as miscellaneous reports. The main scope of this paper is to describe the stratigraphy, petrography, and the tectonic history of this complex. In this paper are also discussed the characteristics of the volcanic activities and the alterations represented by the same complex.
Die Insel Zante
(1891)
Goethes Beschäftigung mit der Erdgeschichte ist von großen Gesten bestimmt, leidenschaftlicher Parteinahme, ästhetischem Anspruch. Sie wird ihm zu einem grundlegenden Baustein der eigenen "Welterschaffung", deren Widerschein sich im zweiten Teil des "Faust" und in der Figur des Montan in "Wilhelm Meisters Wanderjahren" spiegelt. Aber auch unmittelbare Experimentierlust zeichnet die Geschichte seiner Bemühungen um "das Studium des Inneren der Erde" aus - der Erdforscher begibt sich in die Hexenküche des Laboratoriums, etwa um Versuche zu den "metallischen Vegetationen" des "Arbor dianae" durchzuführen, wo es um die Erzeugung von Kristallbildungen von Metallen auf chemischem Weg geht: sie weisen eine gewisse Ähnlichkeit mit baum- und pflanzen ähnlichen Formen auf. Seine Arbeit ist erfüllt von der Freude an der Empirie, aber bei allzu langem Verweilen beim Steineschlagen im Feld stellt sich auch bald Langeweile ein.
Chemical ozone loss in winter 1991–1992 is recalculated based on observations of the HALOE satellite instrument, Version 19, ER-2 aircraft measurements and balloon data. HALOE satellite observations are shown to be reliable in the lower stratosphere below 400 K, at altitudes where the measurements are most likely disturbed by the enhanced sulfate aerosol loading, as a result of the Mt.~Pinatubo eruption in June 1991. Significant chemical ozone loss (13–17 DU) is observed below 380 K from Kiruna balloon observations and HALOE satellite data between December 1991 and March 1992. For the two winters after the Mt. Pinatubo eruption, HALOE satellite observations show a stronger extent of chemical ozone loss towards lower altitudes compared to other Arctic winters between 1991 and 2003. In spite of already occurring deactivation of chlorine in March 1992, MIPAS-B and LPMA balloon observations indicate that chlorine was still activated at lower altitudes, consistent with observed chemical ozone loss occurring between February and March and April. Large chemical ozone loss of more than 70 DU in the Arctic winter 1991–1992 as calculated in earlier studies is corroborated here.
During the APE-THESEO mission in the Indian Ocean the Myasishchev Design Bureau stratospheric research aircraft M55 Geophysica performed a flight over and within the inner core region of tropical cyclone Davina. Measurements of total water, water vapour, temperature, aerosol backscattering, ozone and tracers were made and are discussed here in comparison with the averages of those quantities acquired during the campaign time frame. Temperature anomalies in the tropical tropopause layer (TTL), warmer than average in the lower part and colder than average in the upper TTL were observed. Ozone was strongly reduced compared to its average value, and thick cirrus decks were present up to the cold point, sometimes topped by a layer of very dry air. Evidence for meridional transport of trace gases in the stratosphere above the cyclone was observed and perturbed water distribution in the TTL was documented. The paper discuss possible processes of dehydration induced by the cirrus forming above the cyclone, and change in the chemical tracer and water distribution in the lower stratosphere 400–430 K due to meridional transport from the mid-latitudes and link with Davina. Moreover it compares the data prior and after the cyclone passage to discuss its actual impact on the atmospheric chemistry and thermodynamics.
Appropriate precautions in the case of flood occurrence often require long lead times (several days) in hydrological forecasting. This in turn implies large uncertainties that are mainly inherited from the meteorological precipitation forecast. Here we present a case study of the extreme flood event of August 2005 in the Swiss part of the Rhine catchment (total area 34 550 km2). This event caused tremendous damage and was associated with precipitation amounts and flood peaks with return periods beyond 10 to 100 years. To deal with the underlying intrinsic predictability limitations, a probabilistic forecasting system is tested, which is based on a hydrological-meteorological ensemble prediction system. The meteorological component of the system is the operational limited-area COSMO-LEPS that downscales the ECMWF ensemble prediction system to a horizontal resolution of 10 km, while the hydrological component is based on the semi-distributed hydrological model PREVAH with a spatial resolution of 500 m. We document the setup of the coupled system and assess its performance for the flood event under consideration. We show that the probabilistic meteorological-hydrological ensemble prediction chain is quite effective and provides additional guidance for extreme event forecasting, in comparison to a purely deterministic forecasting system. For the case studied, it is also shown that most of the benefits of the probabilistic approach may be realized with a comparatively small ensemble size of 10 members.
The main objective of the study presented in this paper was to develop an evaluation scheme which is suitable for spatially explicit groundwater vulnerability assessment according to the Water Framework Directive (WFD). Study area was the Hase river catchment, an area of about 3 000 km2 in north-west Germany which is dominated by livestock farming, in particular pig and poultry production. For the Hase river catchment, the first inventory of the WFD led to the conclusion that 98% of the catchment area is "unclear/unlikely" to reach a good groundwater status due to diffuse nitrogen emissions from agriculture. The groundwater vulnerability assessment was embedded in the PartizipA project ("Participative modelling, Actor and Ecosystem Analysis in Regions with Intensive Agriculture", www.partizipa.net), within which a so-called actors´ platform was established in the study area. The objective of the participatory process was to investigate the effects of the WFD on agriculture as well as to discuss groundwater protection measures which are suitable for an integration in the programme of measures. The study was conducted according to the vulnerability assessment concept of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, considering sensitivity, exposure and adaptive capacity. Sensitivity was computed using the DRASTIC index of natural groundwater pollution potential. Exposure (for a reference scenario) was computed using the STOFFBILANZ nutrient model. Several regional studies were analysed to evaluate the adaptive capacity. From these studies it was concluded that the adaptive capacity in the Hase river catchment is very low due to the economic importance of the agricultural sector which will be significantly affected by groundwater protection measures. As a consequence, the adaptive capacity was not considered any more in the vulnerability assessment. A groundwater vulnerability evaluation scheme is presented which enjoys the advantage that both exposure and sensitivity can be operationalized in a spatially resolved manner (500×500 m grid) by the two models mentioned above. The evaluation scheme was applied in the Hase river catchment. 21% of the catchment was classified as highly vulnerable, another 73% as medium vulnerable. Only 6% of the Hase river catchment has low vulnerability. Grid cells of the high vulnerability class are considered as priority areas for groundwater protection measures in the programme of measures of the WFD. Measures will be particularly effective in the north-eastern part of the catchment where groundwater vulnerability is mainly due to high nitrogen emissions.
Strong perturbations of the Arctic stratosphere during the winter 2002/2003 by planetary waves led to enhanced stretching and folding of the vortex. On two occasions the vortex in the lower stratosphere split into two secondary vortices that re-merged after some days. As a result of these strong disturbances the role of transport in and out of the vortex was stronger than usual. An advection and mixing simulation with the Chemical Lagrangian Model of the Stratosphere (CLaMS) utilising a suite of inert tracers tagging the original position of the air masses has been carried out. The results show a variety of synoptic and small scale features in the vicinity of the vortex boundary, especially long filaments peeling off the vortex edge and being slowly mixed into the mid latitude environment. The vortex folding events, followed by re-merging of different parts of the vortex led to strong filamentation of the vortex interior. During January, February, and March 2003 flights of the Russian high-altitude aircraft Geophysica were performed in order to probe the vortex, filaments and in one case the merging zone between the secondary vortices. Comparisons between CLaMS results and observations obtained from the Geophysica flights show in general good agreement. Several areas affected by both transport and strong mixing could be identified, allowing explanation of many of the structures observed during the flights. Furthermore, the CLaMS simulations allow for a quantification of the air mass exchange between mid latitudes and the vortex interior. The simulation suggests that after the formation of the vortex was completed, its interior remaind relatively undisturbed. Only during the two re-merging events were substantial amounts of extra-vortex air transported into the polar vortex. When in March the vortex starts weakening additional influence from lower latitudes becomes apparent in the model results. In the lower stratosphere export of vortex air leads only to a fraction of about 5% polar air in mid latitudes by the end of March. An upper limit for the contribution of ozone depleted vortex air on mid-latitude ozone loss is derived, indicating that the maximum final impact of dilution is on the order of 50%.
From July 2002 to March 2004 the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) aboard the European Space Agency´s Environmental Satellite (Envisat) measured nearly continuously mid infrared limb radiance spectra. These measurements are utilised to retrieve the global distribution of the chlorofluorocarbon CFC-11 by applying a new fast forward model for Envisat MIPAS and an accompanying optimal estimation retrieval processor. A detailed analysis shows that the total retrieval errors of the individual CFC-11 volume mixing ratios are typically below 10% in the altitude range 10 to 25 km and that the systematic components dominate. Contribution of a priori information to the retrieval results are less than 5 to 10% and the vertical resolution of the observations is about 3 to 4 km in the same vertical range. The data are successfully validated by comparison with several other space experiments, an air-borne in-situ instrument, measurements from ground-based networks, and independent Envisat MIPAS analyses. The retrieval results from 425 000 Envisat MIPAS limb scans are compiled to provide a new climatological data set of CFC-11. The climatology shows significantly lower CFC-11 abundances in the lower stratosphere compared with the Reference Atmospheres for MIPAS (RAMstan V3.1) climatology. Depending on the atmospheric conditions the differences between the climatologies are up to 30 to 110 ppt (45 to 150%) at 19 to 27 km altitude. Additionally, time series of CFC-11 mean abundance and variability for five latitudinal bands are presented. The observed CFC-11 distributions can be explained by the residual mean circulation and large-scale eddy-transports in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. The new CFC-11 data set is well suited for further scientific studies.
Global distributions of profiles of sulphur hexafluoride (SF6) have been retrieved from limb emission spectra recorded by the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) on Envisat covering the period September 2002 to March 2004. Individual SF6 profiles have a precision of 0.5 pptv below 25 km altitude and a vertical resolution of 4–6 km up to 35 km altitude. These data have been validated versus in situ observations obtained during balloon flights of a cryogenic whole-air sampler. For the tropical troposphere a trend of 0.230±0.008 pptv/yr has been derived from the MIPAS data, which is in excellent agreement with the trend from ground-based flask and in situ measurements from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Earth System Research Laboratory, Global Monitoring Division. For the data set currently available, based on at least three days of data per month, monthly 5° latitude mean values have a 1 o standard error of 1%. From the global SF6 distributions, global daily and monthly distributions of the apparent mean age of air are inferred by application of the tropical tropospheric trend derived from MIPAS data. The inferred mean ages are provided for the full globe up to 90° N/S, and have a 1 o standard error of 0.25 yr. They range between 0 (near the tropical tropopause) and 7 years (except for situations of mesospheric intrusions) and agree well with earlier observations. The seasonal variation of the mean age of stratospheric air indicates episodes of severe intrusion of mesospheric air during each Northern and Southern polar winter observed, long-lasting remnants of old, subsided polar winter air over the spring and summer poles, and a rather short period of mixing with midlatitude air and/or upward transport during fall in October/November (NH) and April/May (SH), respectively, with small latitudinal gradients, immediately before the new polar vortex starts to form. The mean age distributions further confirm that SF6 is destroyed in the mesosphere to a considerable degree. Model calculations with the Karlsruhe simulation model of the middle atmosphere (KASIMA) chemical transport model agree well with observed global distributions of the mean age only if the SF6 sink reactions in the mesosphere are included in the model.
This study presents an evaluation of a pulse height condensation particle counter (PH-CPC) and an expansion condensation particle counter (E-CPC) in terms of measuring ambient and laboratory-generated molecular and ion clusters. Ambient molecular cluster concentrations were measured with both instruments as they were deployed in conjunction with an ion spectrometer and other aerosol instruments in Hyytiälä, Finland at the SMEAR II station between 1 March and 30 June 2007. The observed cluster concentrations varied and ranged from some thousands to 100 000 cm -3. Both instruments showed similar (within a factor of ~5) concentrations. An average size of the detected clusters was approximately 1.8 nm. As the atmospheric measurement of sub 2-nm particles and molecular clusters is a challenging task, we conclude that most likely we were unable to detect the smallest clusters. Nevertheless, the reported concentrations are the best estimates to date for minimum cluster concentrations in a boreal forest environment.
We report the first atmospheric observations of the Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) trifluorochloroethene, 3-chloropentafluoropropene and 4,4-dichlorohexafluoro-1-butene by means of Gas Chromatography with Electron Capture and Mass Spectrometric detection (GC-ECD-MS) in air samples taken at the Taunus Observatory operated by the University of Frankfurt (Main) and the Jungfraujoch High Altitude Research Station in Switzerland. These substances belong to a class of CFCs containing a double bond and are suspected to originate from the production and thermal degradation of widely used fluoropolymers like polychlorotrifluoroethene (PCTFE). Their atmospheric lifetimes are expected to be rather short. A quantitative calibration could only be derived for trifluorochloroethene but not for the other species by now. Thus, we use a relative sensitivity method to get a first indication of the observed atmospheric abundances. Identification was possible because of an air plume containing high concentrations of these substances. We suggest that the abundances found on this occasion originated from a local source. However, we have also observed the novel CFCs in air masses representative of background conditions, though with much lower concentrations. These species and some of their degradation products are toxic and could also be relevant for stratospheric and tropospheric ozone depletion.
Assessment of ecologically relevant hydrological change in China due to water use and reservoirs
(2008)
As China’s economy booms, increasing water use has significantly affected hydro-geomorphic processes and thus the ecology of surface waters. A large variety of hydrological changes arising from human activities such as reservoir construction and management, water abstraction, water diversion and agricultural land expansion have been sustained throughout China. Using the global scale hydrological and water use model WaterGAP, natural and anthropogenically altered flow conditions are calculated, taking into account flow alterations due to human water consumption and 580 large reservoirs. The impacts resulting from water consumption and reservoirs have been analyzed separately. A modified “Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration” approach is used to describe the human pressures on aquatic ecosystems due to anthropogenic alterations in river flow regimes. The changes in long-term average river discharge, average monthly mean discharge and coefficients of variation of monthly river discharges under natural and impacted conditions are compared and analyzed. The indicators show very significant alterations of natural river flow regimes in a large part of northern China and only minor alterations in most of southern China. The detected large alterations in long-term average river discharge, the seasonality of flows and the inter-annual variability in the northern half of China are very likely to have caused significant ecological impacts.
The present paper deals mith the results of an environniental isotopic study in western Thessaly valley, carried out during the period 1968 - 1971. The isotopes used are 18O, D, Tritium, 18C and 14C. By the interpretation and evaluation of these resiilts useflil informations as regards the soiirce of recharge, the recharge mechanisrn and the dynamics of the flow system of the valley are provided.
In a joint enterprise, the ground water supplies in some Oases in UAR (namely El Kharga, El Dakhla, El Baharia and Siwa), in Wadi El Natrun (to the west of the Nile Delta), in Ayoun Mousa (West Sinai) and in some places along the Mediterranean Littoral, have been investigated. According to the dating of the water by the C14 method, the age of the artesian water from the Oases is between 25,000 and 40,000 years and the origin is obviously from rain water which fell and infiltrated within the "Nubian Sandstone" layers, occupying almost entirely the southern portion of the western Desert (the water underwent some evaporation before it disappeared in the subsurface as indicated from the loss of the 016). This process took place during one or more of the Pluvial periods which followed (and were not coincident with) the last "Würm" eustatic lowering of the Mediterranean. No infiltration water have presumably recharged the layers in question, so almost entirely fossil water reserves are tapped at present. The quantities of such reserves are unknown. More ancient waters, however, may be expected to the north of El Kharga and El Dakhla Oases. Such waters may- to their greater portions - enter these two oases from that direction. On the other hand, little or almost no water is expected to feed the reservoir from the opposite direction.
Jurassic accretionary complex of the Tamba terrane, southwest Japan, and its formative process
(1993)
Über gewundene Bergkrystalle
(1894)
In dem Augenblick, in welchem in Bayern die drei ersten Blätter der geologischen Karte des Königreichs im Maßstabe 1 : 26.000 der Öffentlichkeit vorliegen und bald eine Anzahl weiterer folgen wird, scheint es nicht unangebracht, hier einen Überblick über die geschichtliche Entwicklung zu geben, welche dazu führte, daß nunmehr in ganz Deutschland (mit Ausnahme von Mecklenburg) amtliche Kartenaufnahmen in diesem Maßstab veröffentlicht werden. Wenn wir die Entwicklung der geologischen Aufnahmen in Deutschland überblicken, so können mir überall drei Stadien (gewissermaßen Altertum, Mittelalter und Neuzeit) unterscheiden. Das erste ursprüngliche Stadium ist das der zusammenhangslosen gelegentlichen Aunahme, zu welcher Liebhaberei oder praktischer Bedarf des Bergbaues führte. Dann folgte eine zweite Periode, in welcher durch meist staatliche Organisationen in der Regel unter Obhut der Bergbehörden Übersichtskarten in Maßstabe von 1 : 120.000, 1 : 100.000, 1 : 80.000 und 1 : 50.000 herausgegeben wurden. Das dritte Stadium bildet dann die systematische Herstellung von Spezialkarten im Maßstabe 1 : 25.000 durch die geologischen Landesanstalten, welche in der Regel mit Hochschulinstituten in mehr oder minder enger Verbindung standen. Zum Schluß seien dann noch kurz die neuesten Entwicklungstendenzen besprochen.
Long-term average groundwater recharge, which is equivalent to renewable groundwater resources, is the major limiting factor for the sustainable use of groundwater. Compared to surface water resources, groundwater resources are more protected from pollution, and their use is less restricted by seasonal and inter-annual flow variations. To support water management in a globalized world, it is necessary to estimate groundwater recharge at the global scale. Here, we present a best estimate of global-scale long-term average diffuse groundwater recharge (i.e. renewable groundwater resources) that has been calculated by the most recent version of the WaterGAP Global Hydrology Model WGHM (spatial resolution of 0.5° by 0.5°, daily time steps). The estimate was obtained using two state-of-the art global data sets of gridded observed precipitation that we corrected for measurement errors, which also allowed to quantify the uncertainty due to these equally uncertain data sets. The standard WGHM groundwater recharge algorithm was modified for semi-arid and arid regions, based on 15 independent estimates of diffuse groundwater recharge, which lead to an unbiased estimation of groundwater recharge in these regions. WGHM was tuned against observed long-term average river discharge at 1235 gauging stations by adjusting, individually for each basin, the partitioning of precipitation into evapotranspiration and total runoff. We estimate that global groundwater recharge was 12 666 km3/yr for the climate nor20 mal 1961–1990, i.e. 32% of total renewable water resources. In semi-arid and arid regions, mountainous regions, permafrost regions and in the Asian Monsoon region, groundwater recharge accounts for a lower fraction of total runoff, which makes these regions particularly vulnerable to seasonal and inter-annual precipitation variability and water pollution. Average per-capita renewable groundwater resources of countries vary 25 between 8m3/(capita yr) for Egypt to more than 1 million m3/(capita yr) for the Falkland Islands, the global average in the year 2000 being 2091m3/(capita yr). Regarding the uncertainty of estimated groundwater resources due to the two precipitation data sets, deviation from the mean is less than 1% for 50 out of the 165 countries considered, between 1 and 5% for 62, between 5 and 20% for 43 and between 20 and 80% for 10 countries. Deviations at the grid scale can be much larger, ranging between 0 and 186 mm/yr.
his paper investigates the value of observed river discharge data for global-scale hydrological modeling of a number of flow characteristics that are required for assessing water resources, flood risk and habitat alteration of aqueous ecosystems. An improved version of WGHM (WaterGAP Global Hydrology Model) was tuned in a way that simulated and observed long-term average river discharges at each station become equal, using either the 724-station dataset (V1) against which former model versions were tuned or a new dataset (V2) of 1235 stations and often longer time series. WGHM is tuned by adjusting one model parameter (γ) that affects runoff generation from land areas, and, where necessary, by applying one or two correction factors, which correct the total runoff in a sub-basin (areal correction factor) or the discharge at the station (station correction factor). The study results are as follows. (1) Comparing V2 to V1, the global land area covered by tuning basins increases by 5%, while the area where the model can be tuned by only adjusting γ increases by 8% (546 vs. 384 stations). However, the area where a station correction factor (and not only an areal correction factor) has to be applied more than doubles (389 vs. 93 basins), which is a strong drawback as use of a station correction factor makes discharge discontinuous at the gauge and inconsistent with runoff in the basin. (2) The value of additional discharge information for representing the spatial distribution of long-term average discharge (and thus renewable water resources) with WGHM is high, particularly for river basins outside of the V1 tuning area and for basins where the average sub-basin area has decreased by at least 50% in V2 as compared to V1. For these basins, simulated long-term average discharge would differ from the observed one by a factor of, on average, 1.8 and 1.3, respectively, if the additional discharge information were not used for tuning. The value tends to be higher in semi-arid and snow-dominated regions where hydrological models are less reliable than in humid areas. The deviation of the other simulated flow characteristics (e.g. low flow, inter-annual variability and seasonality) from the observed values also decreases significantly, but this is mainly due to the better representation of average discharge but not of variability. (3) The optimal sub-basin size for tuning depends on the modeling purpose. On the one hand, small basins between 9000 and 20 000 km2 show a much stronger improvement in model performance due to tuning than the larger basins, which is related to the lower model performance (with and without tuning), with basins over 60 000 km2 performing best. On the other hand, tuning of small basins decreases model consistency, as almost half of them require a station correction factor.
[Nachruf auf] Carlos Ribeiro
(1883)
L'Astrolabe a Vanikoro
(1829)
Der Erdfall „Seeloch" bei Bad Hersfeld ist ein etwa kreisrunder Einbruch im Buntsandstein mit einem Durchmesser von ca. 80 m, der auf Subrosionsvorgänge lm Zechsteinsalinar zurückgeführt wird. Einbrüche dieser Art sind typisch für Salzhänge, wie an anderen Beispielen gezeigt wird. Kaminartige Durchbrüche durch mehrere hundert Meter mächtiges Deckgebirge können nur entstehen, wenn eine vorgegebene Klüftung vorhanden ist. Ähnliche Erscheinungen sind über Lösungshohlräumen beobachtet worden, die beim Absaufen von Kaliwerken entstanden. Erfahrungen aus dem Salinenbetrieb zeigen, daß auch im Steinsalz größere Hohlräume längere Zeit existieren können, ohne daß es zu Bodensenkungen oder Erdfällen kommt. Die Sedimente des „Seeloch" sind palynologisoh und stratigraphisch bearbeitet worden. Das besondere Ergebnis dieser Untersuchungen ist daß Interglazial-Alter (Riß-Würrn) des Profilabschnittes. Die bisher untersuchten Salzauslaugungssenken enthalten Ablagerungen des Tertiärs, Altpleistozäns oder des Holozäns. Aus den Korrosionssenken des nordöstlichen Hessens waren bisher nur kohlig-torfige Ablagerungen bekannt geworden, die ein oberpliozänes bis altpleistozänes oder postglaziales Alter haben. Mit den Schichten aus dem "Seeloch" von Kathus werden erstmals Ablagerungen beschrieben, für die ein eemzeitliches Alter (Riß-Würm-Interglazial) wahrscheinlich ist.
Die Geologie des Elsaß
(1940)
Chronologie des plus anciennes cartes d’Amérique : (extrait d'une lettre adressée à M. Jomard)
(1835)
An evaluation scheme is presented in this paper which can be used to assess groundwater vulnerability according to the requirements of the European Water Framework Directive (WFD). The evaluation scheme results in a groundwater vulnerability map identifying areas of high, medium and low vulnerability, as necessary for the measurement planning of the WFD. The evaluation scheme is based on the definition of the vulnerability of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). It considers exposure, sensitivity and the adaptive capacity of the region. The adaptive capacity is evaluated in an actors' platform, which was constituted for the region in the PartizipA ("Participative modelling, Actor and Ecosystem Analysis in Regions with Intensive Agriculture") project. As a result of the vulnerability assessment, 21% of the catchment area was classified as being highly vulnerable, whereas 73% has medium vulnerability and 6% has low vulnerability. Thus, a groundwater vulnerability assessment approach is presented, which can be used in practice on a catchment scale for the WFD measurement planning.
Global modelling of continental water storage changes : sensitivity to different climate data sets
(2007)
Since 2002, the GRACE satellite mission provides estimates of the Earth's dynamic gravity field with unprecedented accuracy. Differences between monthly gravity fields contain a clear hydrological signal due to continental water storage changes. In order to evaluate GRACE results, the state-of-the-art WaterGAP Global Hydrological Model (WGHM) is applied to calculate terrestrial water storage changes on a global scale. WGHM is driven by different climate data sets to analyse especially the influence of different precipitation data on calculated water storage. The data sets used are the CRU TS 2.1 climate data set, the GPCC Full Data Product for precipitation and data from the ECMWF integrated forecast system. A simple approach for precipitation correction is introduced. WGHM results are then compared with GRACE data. The use of different precipitation data sets leads to considerable differences in computed water storage change for a large number of river basins. Comparing model results with GRACE observations shows a good spatial correlation and also a good agreement in phase. However, seasonal variations of water storage as derived from GRACE tend to be significantly larger than those computed by WGHM, regardless of which climate data set is used.
Constructive waterfalls
(1911)
The excavation of valleys by waterfalls is one of the best known and most effective processes by which rivers cut down the surface of the earth. The influence of waterfalls is usually regarded as solely destructive, and as always helping to lower the land. They undermine and cut backward the rock faces over which they fall : by this recession they excavate deep gorges ; and the existence of these gorges enables the adjacent country to be lowered to the level of the valIey floors. The waterfalls, moreover, empty any lakes they rnay reach in their retreat, while the ravines below the falls may drain the springs and thus desiccate the neighbouring hihlands. Observations in various countries had suggested to me that waterfalls may sometimes be constructive in stead of destructive, and that they may reserse their usual procedure, advancing instead of retreating, filling valleys instead of excavating them, and forrning alluvial plains and lakes instead of destroying them. The best illustrations I have seen of such advancing, constructive waterfalls are on some rivers of Dalmatia and Bosnia, where they occur in various stages of development. ...
Tropische Korallenriffe sind die artenreichsten Ökosysteme im Ozean. Die »tropischen Regenwälder der Meere« beherbergen zirka 800 Korallenarten und mehrere zehntausend Arten aus fast allen bekannten Tierstämmen. Korallenriffe bedecken weltweit eine Fläche von 600.000 Quadratkilometern, das sind 0,17 Prozent der Erdoberfläche. Sie treten als nahe der Küste gelegene Saumriffe, küstenfernere Barriereriffe, ringförmige Atolle und flache Karbonat-Plattformen auf . Der Begriff »Karbonat« weist darauf hin, dass Korallen als Riffbildner ein Skelett aus Kalk haben. Auch Kalkalgen und Weichtiere wie Muscheln und Schnecken sind durch die Bildung von Kalkskeletten und Kalkschalen am Riffaufbau beteiligt. Da tropische Korallenriffe nur in der Nähe der Meeresoberfläche wachsen, können Geowissenschaftler mit Hilfe fossiler Korallenfunde ermitteln, wie sich der Pegel des Meeresspiegels in vergangenen Jahrtausenden entwickelt hat. Auch andere wichtige Klimadaten wie Wassertemperatur, Sonneneinstrahlung und Kohlendioxid-Gehalt der Atmosphäre sind in Korallenriffen »gespeichert«. Frankfurter Geowissenschaftler erschließen diese wichtigen Daten, die weit vor menschliche Messungen zurückreichen, durch systematische Bohrungen in Korallenriffen der Karibik, des Persischen Golfs und der Malediven.
Spatial interpolation of precipitation data is uncertain. How important is this uncertainty and how can it be considered in evaluation of high-resolution probabilistic precipitation forecasts? These questions are discussed by experimental evaluation of the COSMO consortium's limited-area ensemble prediction system COSMO-LEPS. The applied performance measure is the often used Brier skill score (BSS). The observational references in the evaluation are (a) analyzed rain gauge data by ordinary Kriging and (b) ensembles of interpolated rain gauge data by stochastic simulation. This permits the consideration of either a deterministic reference (the event is observed or not with 100% certainty) or a probabilistic reference that makes allowance for uncertainties in spatial averaging. The evaluation experiments show that the evaluation uncertainties are substantial even for the large area (41 300 km2) of Switzerland with a mean rain gauge distance as good as 7 km: the one- to three-day precipitation forecasts have skill decreasing with forecast lead time but the one- and two-day forecast performances differ not significantly.
Mechanisms by which subvisible cirrus clouds (SVCs) might contribute to dehydration close to the tropical tropopause are not well understood. Recently Ultrathin Tropical Tropopause Clouds (UTTCs) with optical depths around 10-4 have been detected in the western Indian ocean. These clouds cover thousands of square kilometers as 200-300 m thick distinct and homogeneous layer just below the tropical tropopause. In their condensed phase UTTCs contain only 1-5% of the total water, and essentially no nitric acid. A new cloud stabilization mechanism is required to explain this small fraction of the condensed water content in the clouds and their small vertical thickness. This work suggests a mechanism, which forces the particles into a thin layer, based on upwelling of the air of some mm/s to balance the ice particles, supersaturation with respect to ice above and subsaturation below the UTTC. In situ measurements suggest that these requirements are fulfilled. The basic physical properties of this mechanism are explored by means of a single particle model. Comprehensive 1-D cloud simulations demonstrate this stabilization mechanism to be robust against rapid temperature fluctuations of +/- 0.5 K. However, rapid warming (Delta T > 2 K) leads to evaporation of the UTTC, while rapid cooling (Delta T < -2 K) leads to destabilization of the particles with the potential for significant dehydration below the cloud
Measurements of OH, total peroxy radicals, non-methane hydrocarbons (NMHCs) and various other trace gases were made at the Meteorological Observatory Hohenpeissenberg in June 2000. The data from an intensive measurement period characterised by high solar insolation (18-21 June) are analysed. The maximum midday OH concentration ranged between 4.5x106 molecules cm-3 and 7.4x106 molecules cm-3. The maximum total ROx (ROx =OH+RO+HO2+RO2) mixing ratio increased from about 55 pptv on 18 June to nearly 70 pptv on 20 and 21 June. A total of 64 NMHCs, including isoprene and monoterpenes, were measured every 1 to 6 hours. The oxidation rate of the NMHCs by OH was calculated and reached a total of over 14x106 molecules cm-3 s-1 on two days. A simple photostationary state balance model was used to simulate the ambient OH and peroxy radical concentrations with the measured data as input. This approach was able to reproduce the main features of the diurnal profiles of both OH and peroxy radicals. The balance equations were used to test the effect of the assumptions made in this model. The results proved to be most sensitive to assumptions about the impact of unmeasured volatile organic compounds (VOC), e.g. formaldehyde (HCHO), and about the partitioning between HO2 and RO2. The measured OH concentration and peroxy radical mixing ratios were reproduced well by assuming the presence of 3 ppbv HCHO as a proxy for oxygenated hydrocarbons, and a HO2/ RO2 ratio between 1:1 and 1:2. The most important source of OH, and conversely the greatest sink for peroxy radicals, was the recycling of HO2 radicals to OH. This reaction was responsible for the recycling of more than 45x106 molecules cm-3 s-1 on two days. The most important sink for OH, and the largest source of peroxy radicals, was the oxidation of NMHCs, in particular, of isoprene and the monoterpenes.
Subvisible cirrus clouds (SVCs) may contribute to dehydration close to the tropical tropopause. The higher and colder SVCs and the larger their ice crystals, the more likely they represent the last efficient point of contact of the gas phase with the ice phase and, hence, the last dehydrating step, before the air enters the stratosphere. The first simultaneous in situ and remote sensing measurements of SVCs were taken during the APE-THESEO campaign in the western Indian ocean in February/March 1999. The observed clouds, termed Ultrathin Tropical Tropopause Clouds (UTTCs), belong to the geometrically and optically thinnest large-scale clouds in the Earth´s atmosphere. Individual UTTCs may exist for many hours as an only 200--300 m thick cloud layer just a few hundred meters below the tropical cold point tropopause, covering up to 105 km2. With temperatures as low as 181 K these clouds are prime representatives for defining the water mixing ratio of air entering the lower stratosphere.
We have used the SLIMCAT 3-D off-line chemical transport model (CTM) to quantify the Arctic chemical ozone loss in the year 2002/2003 and compare it with similar calculations for the winters 1999/2000 and 2003/2004. Recent changes to the CTM have improved the model's ability to reproduce polar chemical and dynamical processes. The updated CTM uses σ-θ as a vertical coordinate which allows it to extend down to the surface. The CTM has a detailed stratospheric chemistry scheme and now includes a simple NAT-based denitrification scheme in the stratosphere.
In the model runs presented here the model was forced by ECMWF ERA40 and operational analyses. The model used 24 levels extending from the surface to ~55km and a horizontal resolution of either 7.5° x 7.5° or 2.8° x 2.8°. Two different radiation schemes, MIDRAD and the CCM scheme, were used to diagnose the vertical motion in the stratosphere. Based on tracer observations from balloons and aircraft, the more sophisticated CCM scheme gives a better representation of the vertical transport in this model which includes the troposphere. The higher resolution model generally produces larger chemical O3 depletion, which agrees better with observations.
The CTM results show that very early chemical ozone loss occurred in December 2002 due to extremely low temperatures and early chlorine activation in the lower stratosphere. Thus, chemical loss in this winter started earlier than in the other two winters studied here. In 2002/2003 the local polar ozone loss in the lower stratosphere was ~40% before the stratospheric final warming. Larger ozone loss occurred in the cold year 1999/2000 which had a persistently cold and stable vortex during most of the winter. For this winter the current model, at a resolution of 2.8° x 2.8°, can reproduce the observed loss of over 70% locally. In the warm and more disturbed winter 2003/2004 the chemical O3 loss was generally much smaller, except above 620K where large losses occurred due to a period of very low minimum temperatures at these altitudes.
Number concentrations of total and non-volatile aerosol particles with size diameters >0.01 μm as well as particle size distributions (0.4–23 μm diameter) were measured in situ in the Arctic lower stratosphere (10–20.5 km altitude). The measurements were obtained during the campaigns European Polar Stratospheric Cloud and Lee Wave Experiment (EUPLEX) and Envisat-Arctic-Validation (EAV). The campaigns were based in Kiruna, Sweden, and took place from January to March 2003. Measurements were conducted onboard the Russian high-altitude research aircraft Geophysica using the low-pressure Condensation Nucleus Counter COPAS (COndensation PArticle Counter System) and a modified FSSP 300 (Forward Scattering Spectrometer Probe). Around 18–20 km altitude typical total particle number concentrations nt range at 10–20 cm−3 (ambient conditions). Correlations with the trace gases nitrous oxide (N2O) and trichlorofluoromethane (CFC-11) are discussed. Inside the polar vortex the total number of particles >0.01 μm increases with potential temperature while N2O is decreasing which indicates a source of particles in the above polar stratosphere or mesosphere. A separate channel of the COPAS instrument measures the fraction of aerosol particles non-volatile at 250°C. Inside the polar vortex a much higher fraction of particles contained non-volatile residues than outside the vortex (~67% inside vortex, ~24% outside vortex). This is most likely due to a strongly increased fraction of meteoric material in the particles which is transported downward from the mesosphere inside the polar vortex. The high fraction of non-volatile residual particles gives therefore experimental evidence for downward transport of mesospheric air inside the polar vortex. It is also shown that the fraction of non-volatile residual particles serves directly as a suitable experimental vortex tracer. Nanometer-sized meteoric smoke particles may also serve as nuclei for the condensation of gaseous sulfuric acid and water in the polar vortex and these additional particles may be responsible for the increase in the observed particle concentration at low N2O. The number concentrations of particles >0.4 μm measured with the FSSP decrease markedly inside the polar vortex with increasing potential temperature, also a consequence of subsidence of air from higher altitudes inside the vortex. Another focus of the analysis was put on the particle measurements in the lowermost stratosphere. For the total particle density relatively high number concentrations of several hundred particles per cm3 at altitudes below ~14 km were observed in several flights. To investigate the origin of these high number concentrations we conducted air mass trajectory calculations and compared the particle measurements with other trace gas observations. The high number concentrations of total particles in the lowermost stratosphere are probably caused by transport of originally tropospheric air from lower latitudes and are potentially influenced by recent particle nucleation.
We report measurements of the deuterium content of molecular hydrogen (H2) obtained from a suite of air samples that were collected during a stratospheric balloon flight between 12 and 33 km at 40º N in October 2002. Strong deuterium enrichments of up to 400 permil versus Vienna Standard Mean Ocean Water (VSMOW) are observed, while the H2 mixing ratio remains virtually constant. Thus, as hydrogen is processed through the H2 reservoir in the stratosphere, deuterium is accumulated in H2 . Using box model calculations we investigated the effects of H2 sources and sinks on the stratospheric enrichments. Results show that considerable isotope enrichments in the production of H2 from CH4 must take place, i.e., deuterium is transferred preferentially to H2 during the CH4 oxidation sequence. This supports recent conclusions from tropospheric H2 isotope measurements which show that H2 produced photochemically from CH4 and non-methane hydrocarbons must be enriched in deuterium to balance the tropospheric hydrogen isotope budget. In the absence of further data on isotope fractionations in the individual reaction steps of the CH4 oxidation sequence, this effect cannot be investigated further at present. Our measurements imply that molecular hydrogen has to be taken into account when the hydrogen isotope budget in the stratosphere is investigated.
Balloon-borne measurements of CFC11 (from the DIRAC in situ gas chromatograph and the DESCARTES grab sampler), ClO and O3 were made during the 1999/2000 Arctic winter as part of the SOLVE-THESEO 2000 campaign, based in Kiruna (Sweden). Here we present the CFC11 data from nine flights and compare them first with data from other instruments which flew during the campaign and then with the vertical distributions calculated by the SLIMCAT 3D CTM. We calculate ozone loss inside the Arctic vortex between late January and early March using the relation between CFC11 and O3 measured on the flights. The peak ozone loss (~1200ppbv) occurs in the 440-470K region in early March in reasonable agreement with other published empirical estimates. There is also a good agreement between ozone losses derived from three balloon tracer data sets used here. The magnitude and vertical distribution of the loss derived from the measurements is in good agreement with the loss calculated from SLIMCAT over Kiruna for the same days.
Turbulent fluxes of carbonyl sulfide (COS) and carbon disulfide (CS2) were measured over a spruce forest in Central Germany using the relaxed eddy accumulation (REA) technique. A REA sampler was developed and validated using simultaneous measurements of CO2 fluxes by REA and by eddy correlation. REA measurements were conducted during six campaigns covering spring, summer, and fall between 1997 and 1999. Both uptake and emission of COS and CS2 by the forest were observed, with deposition occurring mainly during the sunlit period and emission mainly during the dark period. On the average, however, the forest acts as a sink for both gases. The average fluxes for COS and CS2 are -93 ± 11.7 pmol m-2 s-1 and -18 ± 7.6 pmol m-2 s-1, respectively. The fluxes of both gases appear to be correlated to photosynthetically active radiation and to the CO2 and \chem{H_2O} fluxes, supporting the idea that the air-vegetation exchange of both gases is controlled by stomata. An uptake ratio COS/CO2 of 10 ± 1.7 pmol m mol-1 has been derived from the regression line for the correlation between the COS and CO2 fluxes. This uptake ratio, if representative for the global terrestrial net primary production, would correspond to a sink of 2.3 ± 0.5 Tg COS yr-1.
A comprehensive set of stratospheric balloon and aircraft samples was analyzed for the position-dependent isotopic composition of nitrous oxide (N2O). Results for a total of 220 samples from between 1987 and 2003 are presented, nearly tripling the number of mass-spectrometric N2O isotope measurements in the stratosphere published to date. Cryogenic balloon samples were obtained at polar (Kiruna/Sweden, 68° N), mid-latitude (southern France, 44° N) and tropical sites (Hyderabad/India, 18° N). Aircraft samples were collected with a newly-developed whole air sampler on board of the high-altitude aircraft M55 Geophysica during the EUPLEX 2003 campaign. For mixing ratios above 200 nmol mol−1, relative isotope enrichments (δ values) and mixing ratios display a compact relationship, which is nearly independent of latitude and season and which can be explained equally well by Rayleigh fractionation or mixing. However, for mixing ratios below 200 nmol mol−1 this compact relationship gives way to meridional, seasonal and interannual variations. A comparison to a previously published mid-latitude balloon profile even shows large zonal variations, justifying the use of three-dimensional (3-D) models for further data interpretation.
In general, the magnitude of the apparent fractionation constants (i.e., apparent isotope effects) increases continuously with altitude and decreases from the equator to the North Pole. Only the latter observation can be understood qualitatively by the interplay between the time-scales of N2O photochemistry and transport in a Rayleigh fractionation framework. Deviations from Rayleigh fractionation behavior also occur where polar vortex air mixes with nearly N2O-free upper stratospheric/mesospheric air (e.g., during the boreal winters of 2003 and possibly 1992). Aircraft observations in the polar vortex at mixing ratios below 200 nmol mol−1 deviate from isotope variations expected for both Rayleigh fractionation and two-end-member mixing, but could be explained by continuous weak mixing between intravortex and extravortex air (Plumb et al., 2000). However, it appears that none of the simple approaches described here can capture all features of the stratospheric N2O isotope distribution, again justifying the use of 3-D models. Finally, correlations between 18O/16O and average 15N/14N isotope ratios or between the position-dependent 15N/14N isotope ratios show that photo-oxidation makes a large contribution to the total N2O sink in the lower stratosphere (possibly up to 100% for N2O mixing ratios above 300 nmol mol−1). Towards higher altitudes, the temperature dependence of these isotope correlations becomes visible in the stratospheric observations.
Balloon-borne stratospheric BrO measurements: comparison with Envisat/SCIAMACHY BrO limb profiles
(2006)
For the first time, results of all four existing stratospheric BrO profiling instruments, are presented and compared with reference to the SLIMCAT 3-dimensional chemical transport model (3-D CTM). Model calculations are used to infer a BrO profile validation set, measured by 3 different balloon sensors, for the new Envisat/SCIAMACHY (ENVIronment SATellite/SCanning Imaging Absorption spectroMeter for Atmospheric CHartographY) satellite instrument. The balloon observations include (a) balloon-borne in situ resonance fluorescence detection of BrO, (b) balloon-borne solar occultation DOAS measurements (Differential Optical Absorption Spectroscopy) of BrO in the UV, and (c) BrO profiling from the solar occultation SAOZ (Systeme d'Analyse par Observation Zenithale) balloon instrument. Since stratospheric BrO is subject to considerable diurnal variation and none of the measurements are performed close enough in time and space for a direct comparison, all balloon observations are considered with reference to outputs from the 3-D CTM. The referencing is performed by forward and backward air mass trajectory calculations to match the balloon with the satellite observations. The diurnal variation of BrO is considered by 1-D photochemical model calculation along the trajectories. The 1-D photochemical model is initialised with output data of the 3-D model with additional constraints on the vertical transport, the total amount and photochemistry of stratospheric bromine as given by the various balloon observations. Total [Bry]=(20.1±2.8)pptv obtained from DOAS BrO observations at mid-latitudes in 2003, serves as an upper limit of the comparison. Most of the balloon observations agree with the photochemical model predictions within their given error estimates. First retrieval exercises of BrO limb profiling from the SCIAMACHY satellite instrument agree to <±50% with the photochemically-corrected balloon observations, and tend to show less agreement below 20 km.
During SPURT (Spurenstofftransport in der Tropopausenregion, trace gas transport in the tropopause region) we performed measurements of a wide range of trace gases with different lifetimes and sink/source characteristics in the northern hemispheric upper troposphere (UT) and lowermost stratosphere (LMS). A large number of in-situ instruments were deployed on board a Learjet 35A, flying at altitudes up to 13.7 km, at times reaching to nearly 380 K potential temperature. Eight measurement campaigns (consisting of a total of 36 flights), distributed over all seasons and typically covering latitudes between 35° N and 75° N in the European longitude sector (10° W–20° E), were performed. Here we present an overview of the project, describing the instrumentation, the encountered meteorological situations during the campaigns and the data set available from SPURT. Measurements were obtained for N2O, CH4, CO, CO2, CFC12, H2, SF6, NO, NOy, O3 and H2O. We illustrate the strength of this new data set by showing mean distributions of the mixing ratios of selected trace gases, using a potential temperature – equivalent latitude coordinate system. The observations reveal that the LMS is most stratospheric in character during spring, with the highest mixing ratios of O3 and NOy and the lowest mixing ratios of N2O and SF6. The lowest mixing ratios of NOy and O3 are observed during autumn, together with the highest mixing ratios of N2O and SF6 indicating a strong tropospheric influence. For H2O, however, the maximum concentrations in the LMS are found during summer, suggesting unique (temperature- and convection-controlled) conditions for this molecule during transport across the tropopause. The SPURT data set is presently the most accurate and complete data set for many trace species in the LMS, and its main value is the simultaneous measurement of a suite of trace gases having different lifetimes and physical-chemical histories. It is thus very well suited for studies of atmospheric transport, for model validation, and for investigations of seasonal changes in the UT/LMS, as demonstrated in accompanying and elsewhere published studies.
During several balloon flights inside the Arctic polar vortex in early 2003, unusual trace gas distributions were observed, which indicate a strong influence of mesospheric air in the stratosphere. The tuneable diode laser (TDL) instrument SPIRALE (Spectroscopie InFrarouge par Absorption de Lasers Embarqués) measured unusually high CO values (up to 600 ppb) on 27 January at about 30 km altitude. The cryosampler BONBON sampled air masses with very high molecular Hydrogen, extremely low SF6 and enhanced CO values on 6 March at about 25 km altitude. Finally, the MIPAS (Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding) Fourier Transform Infra-Red (FTIR) spectrometer showed NOy values which are significantly higher than NOy* (the NOy derived from a correlation between N2O and NOy under undisturbed conditions), on 21 and 22 March in a layer centred at 22 km altitude. Thus, the mesospheric air seems to have been present in a layer descending from about 30 km in late January to 25 km altitude in early March and about 22 km altitude on 20 March. We present corroborating evidence from a model study using the KASIMA (KArlsruhe Simulation model of the Middle Atmosphere) model that also shows a layer of mesospheric air, which descended into the stratosphere in November and early December 2002, before the minor warming which occurred in late December 2002 lead to a descent of upper stratospheric air, cutting of a layer in which mesospheric air is present. This layer then descended inside the vortex over the course of the winter. The same feature is found in trajectory calculations, based on a large number of trajectories started in the vicinity of the observations on 6 March. Based on the difference between the mean age derived from SF6 (which has an irreversible mesospheric loss) and from CO2 (whose mesospheric loss is much smaller and reversible) we estimate that the fraction of mesospheric air in the layer observed on 6 March, must have been somewhere between 35% and 100%.
A new version of a digital global map of irrigation areas was developed by combining irrigation statistics for 10 825 sub-national statistical units and geo-spatial information on the location and extent of irrigation schemes. The map shows the percentage of each 5 arc minute by 5 arc minute cell that was equipped for irrigation around the year 2000. It is thus an important data set for global studies related to water and land use. This paper describes the data set and the mapping methodology and gives, for the first time, an estimate of the map quality at the scale of countries, world regions and the globe. Two indicators of map quality were developed for this purpose, and the map was compared to irrigated areas as derived from two remote sensing based global land cover inventories.
Flow velocity in rivers has a major impact on residence time of water and thus on high and low water as well as on water quality. For global scale hydrological modeling only very limited information is available for simulating flow velocity. Based on the Manning-Strickler equation, a simple algorithm to model temporally and spatially variable flow velocity was developed with the objective of improving flow routing in the global hydrological model of Water- GAP. An extensive data set of flow velocity measurements in US rivers was used to test and to validate the algorithm before integrating it into WaterGAP. In this test, flow velocity was calculated based on measured discharge and compared to measured velocity. Results show that flow velocity can be modeled satisfactorily at selected river cross sections. It turned out that it is quite sensitive to river roughness, and the results can be optimized by tuning this parameter. After the validation of the approach, the tested flow velocity algorithm has been implemented into the WaterGAP model. A final validation of its effects on the model results is currently performed.
Das Klima, insbesondere der Niederschlag ist einer der wichtigsten natürlichen Gestaltungsfaktoren für die Savannenregion Westafrikas. Morphodynamik, Bodenbildung, Abflußregime sowie Wasserhaushalt werden direkt vom Klima bestimmt. Der Niederschlag ist zudem das begrenzende Element für das Wachstum von Flora und Fauna. Jede Änderung der Niederschlagsmenge hat gravierende Folgen für die Landschaft und seine Bewohner. Die Untersuchung langfristiger klimatischer Veränderungen ist ein Beitrag die Entstehung und den Wandel der Landschaft zu verstehen. Hierdurch können parallele Entwicklungen zwischen Natur- und Kulturraum im langfristigen Zusammenhängen gesehen werden. Ziel ist, das Klima des Tschadseegebietes seit dem Beginn regelmäßiger Aufzeichnung von Klimadaten mit Hilfe verschiedener statistischer Verfahren zu beschreiben. Des weiteren sollen Wechselwirkungen und Zusammenhänge zu externen Faktoren (Globale Zirkulation, Ozeantemperatur, Solarstrahlung,...) aufgezeigt werden.
Le phénomène du cuirassement reste une "curiosité" et une énigme pour le pays de la zone intertropicale. A cause de ses caractéristiques lithologiques et structurales assez particulières de ses roches (roches riches en éléments ferromagnésiens), le Burkina Faso est une véritable zone de prédilection des cuirasses. Malgré l'effort des chercheurs pour élucider le phénomène du cuirassement, force est de reconnaître que de nos jours, certains points d'ombre subsistent toujours; ce qui invite à une analyse plus poussée ... Loin de négliger les problèmes liés à la reconstitution de la génèse de la cuirasse, nous proposons ici une analyse assez originale des cuirasses sur la base des connaissances déjà acquises et de nos multiples observations sur le terrain burkinabé.
Maiduguri, an important city in the Sudano-Sahelian zone of West Africa, experiences both drought and floods. Although droughts are more popular, floods are a seasonal occurrence in parts of the city in the average rainy season. Both hazards exert a heavy toll on their victims. Present response to the hazard problems is characterised by a fire-fighting approach which does little about future occurrence. Much of the perception and response is spiritual and stops short of needed structural and organisational programmes for effective mitigation of hazards. Future occurrences of drought and flood may have more adverse effects as land use in the city becomes more complex and agricultural and water supply system comes to depend heavily on surfacial sources. Future effects will also depend on the socio-economic conditions of the people at risk and the capacity of those who help them. Governments and people need to work together to reduce drought and flood hazards.
Les débuts de l’exploitation du fer de gisement sont encore mal connus en Afrique en général et au Burkina Faso en particulier. Pourtant, pendant la colonisation française, plusieurs auteurs ont dit leur émerveillement en découvrant l’industrie métallurgique de certains peuples des pays du Burkina Faso, celle des Moose, Bwaba et Sénoufo par exemple. Selon ces auteurs, les peuples ci-dessus ont développé des technologies qui leur assuraient une bonne production de fer métal. Pour en savoir plus, nous conduisons depuis 1983 un programme sur la métallurgie du fer au Burkina Faso. L’accent a été particulièrement mis sur les aspects relatifs à la métallurgie lourde du fer. C’est pourquoi l’étude des anciennes mines présente pour nous un intérêt très spécial. Notre propos ici est de rapporter rapidement certaines informations rassemblées concernant le site et la situation des mines, les modes d’extraction, les types de minerai et les questions relatives à l’appropriation et aux conditions d’exploitation de ces mines.
Aus der Notwendigkeit heraus, "nachhaltig die Funktionen des Bodens zu sichern" (§1 BBodSchG), und damit auch Bodenschutz vorsorgend in Planungsprozesse zu integrieren, wurde ein neues Bodenschutzkonzept entwickelt. Es basiert auf einer differenzierten, aber gleichzeitig nachvollziehbaren Bodenbewertung. Das Problem bei der Bodenbewertung ist, dass etwas bewertet werden soll, für das - je nach Fragestellung - immer wieder neue Ziele definiert werden müssen. Deshalb liegt der Bodenbewertung ein Zielsystem zu Grunde, das Schutzziele klar festlegt und mit Hilfe dessen die Bodenbewertung nachvollziehbar wird. Für das Bodenschutzkonzept werden aus der Vielzahl möglicher Kriterien wichtige vorgestellt, aus denen die - bezogen auf dieses Zielsystem - wesentlichen ausgewählt werden können. Um aussagekräftige Daten für diese Kriterien zu erhalten stützt sich die Bodenbewertung auf bodenkundliche sowie landschaftsgenetisch-geomorphologische Zusammenhänge. Die eigentliche Bewertung erfolgt dann in drei Schritten: zuerst eine Einzelbewertung, dann zusammengefasst nach den Bodenfunktionen Lebensraumfunktion, Regelungsfunktion, Informationsfunktion, dem Eigenwert des Bodens (Schutzwürdigkeit) sowie der Empfindlichkeit und Gefährdung (Schutzbedürftigkeit). Im dritten Schritt werden diese Bewertungen dann zu einer gewichteten, verbal-argumentativen Gesamtbewertung der Schutzwürdigkeit und Schutzbedürftigkeit zusammengefasst. Mit Hilfe des Bewertungsverfahrens werden auch Zielkonflikte zwischen den unterschiedlichen Schutzgütern offengelegt. Schutzmaßnahmen ergeben sich dann stringent aus den vorher im Zielsystem gesetzten Prämissen, d.h., Ziele und Maßnahmen sind begründbar gewählt, stehen in einem ökologischen Gesamtzusammenhang und lassen sich sehr gut nachvollziehen. Das hier vorgestellte, neue Bodenschutzkonzept ist für verschiedene Planungsebenen geeignet. Es ist in unterschiedlichen Naturräumen anwendbar, kann verschiedene Schutzziele mit Hilfe des Zielsystems bestimmen und so z.B. die Naturraumvielfalt in einem Gebiet ebenso berücksichtigen wie die Meinungsvielfalt, was unter vorsorgendem Bodenschutz zu verstehen sei.
We present simulations with the Chemical Lagrangian Model of the Stratosphere (CLaMS) for the Arctic winter 2002/2003. We integrated a Lagrangian denitrification scheme into the three-dimensional version of CLaMS that calculates the growth and sedimentation of nitric acid trihydrate (NAT) particles along individual particle trajectories. From those, we derive the HNO3 downward flux resulting from different particle nucleation assumptions. The simulation results show a clear vertical redistribution of total inorganic nitrogen (NOy), with a maximum vortex average permanent NOy removal of over 5 ppb in late December between 500 and 550 K and a corresponding increase of NOy of over 2 ppb below about 450 K. The simulated vertical redistribution of NOy is compared with balloon observations by MkIV and in-situ observations from the high altitude aircraft Geophysica. Assuming a globally uniform NAT particle nucleation rate of 3.4·10−6 cm−3 h−1 in the model, the observed denitrification is well reproduced. In the investigated winter 2002/2003, the denitrification has only moderate impact (<=10%) on the simulated vortex average ozone loss of about 1.1 ppm near the 460 K level. At higher altitudes, above 600 K potential temperature, the simulations show significant ozone depletion through NOx-catalytic cycles due to the unusual early exposure of vortex air to sunlight.
Chlorine monoxide (ClO) plays a key role in stratospheric ozone loss processes at midlatitudes. We present two balloonborne in situ measurements of ClO conducted in northern hemisphere midlatitudes during the period of the maximum of total inorganic chlorine loading in the atmosphere. Both ClO measurements were conducted on board the TRIPLE balloon payload, launched in November 1996 in Le´on, Spain, and in May 1999 in Aire sur l’Adour, France. For both flights a ClO daylight and night time vertical profile could be derived over an altitude range of approximately 15–31 km. ClO mixing ratios are compared to model simulations performed with the photochemical box model version of the Chemical Lagrangian Model of the Stratosphere (CLaMS). Simulations along 24-h backward trajectories were performed to study the diurnal variation of ClO in the midlatitude lower stratosphere. Model simulations for the flight launched in Aire sur l’Adour 1999 show a good agreement with the ClO measurements. For the flight launched in Le´on 1996, a similar good agreement is found, except at around ~ 650 K potential temperature (~26km altitude). However, a tendency is found that for solar zenith angles greater than 86°–87° the simulated ClO mixing ratios substantially overestimate measured ClO by approximately a factor of 2.5 or more for both flights. Therefore we conclude that no indication can be deduced from the presented ClO measurements that substantial uncertainties exist in midlatitude chlorine chemistry of the stratosphere. An exception is the situation at solar zenith angles greater than 86°–87° where model simulations substantial overestimate ClO observations.
Attribution and detection of anthropogenic climate change using a backpropagation neural network
(2002)
The climate system can be regarded as a dynamic nonlinear system. Thus traditional linear statistical methods are not suited to describe the nonlinearities of this system which renders it necessary to find alternative statistical techniques to model those nonlinear properties. In addition to an earlier paper on this subject (WALTER et al., 1998), the problem of attribution and detection of the observed climate change is addressed here using a nonlinear Backpropagation Neural Network (BPN). In addition to potential anthropogenic influences on climate (CO2-equivalent concentrations, called greenhouse gases, GHG and SO2 emissions) natural influences on surface air temperature (variations of solar activity, volcanism and the El Niño/Southern Oscillation phenomenon) are integrated into the simulations as well. It is shown that the adaptive BPN algorithm captures the dynamics of the climate system, i.e. global and area weighted mean temperature anomalies, to a great extent. However, free parameters of this network architecture have to be optimized in a time consuming trial-and-error process. The simulation quality obtained by the BPN exceeds the results of those from a linear model by far; the simulation quality on the global scale amounts to 84% explained variance. Additionally the results of the nonlinear algorithm are plausible in a physical sense, i.e. amplitude and time structure. Nevertheless they cover a broad range, e.g. the GHG-signal on the global scale ranges from 0.37 K to 1.65 K warming for the time period 1856-1998. However the simulated amplitudes are situated within the discussed range (HOUGHTON et al., 2001). Additionally the combined anthropogenic effect corresponds to the observed increase in temperature for the examined time period. In addition to that, the BPN succeeds with the detection of anthropogenic induced climate change on a high significance level. Therefore the concept of neural networks can be regarded as a suitable nonlinear statistical tool for modeling and diagnosing the climate system.
Vielleicht hätte sich außerhalb der Fachwissenschaft niemand für das Weltklimaproblem interessiert, wären da nicht zwei brisante, miteinander gekoppelte Fakten: Die Menschheit ist hochgradig von der Gunst des Klimas abhängig. Es kann uns daher nicht gleichgültig sein, was mit unserem Klima geschieht. Und: Die Menschheit ist mehr und mehr dazu übergegangen, das Klima auch selbst zu beeinflussen. Daraus erwächst uns allen eine besondere Verantwortung. ...
Wenn sich beim Klimagipfel in Den Haag [genauer bei der nun schon 6. Vertragstaatenkonferenz zur Klimaschutzkonvention der Vereinten Nationen] nun wieder die Delegationen aus fast allen Staaten der Welt treffen, um über Klimaschutzmaßnahmen zu beraten, dann schwingt auch immer die Frage mit: Sind solche Maßnahmen wirklich notwendig? Sollen wir nicht einfach warten, bis wir mehr, ja vielleicht alles wissen? ...
Die Zunahme der Konzentration von CO2 und anderen "Treibhausgasen" in der Atmosphäre ist unzweifelhaft, und ebenso unzweifelhaft reagiert das Klima darauf. Christian-Dietrich Schönwiese, Professor für Meteorologische Umweltforschung und Klimatologie an der Universität Frankfurt am Main, sieht dringenden politischen Handlungsbedarf und plädiert gleichzeitig dafür, die Debatte rund um den Klimaschutz zu versachlichen.
Die öffentliche Klimadebatte scheint sich zu verselbständigen. Abgehoben von den Erkenntnissen der Fachwissenschaftler reden die einen von der "Klimakatastrophe", die uns demnächst mit voller Wucht treffen wird, wenn wir nicht sofort alles ganz anders machen; Panik ist ihnen das rechte Mittel, Aufmerksamkeit zu erregen. Die anderen sehen im "Klimaschwindel" einen Vorwand für Forschungsgelder und zusätzliche Steuerbelastung der Wirtschaft; ihre Strategie ist Verwirrung und Verharmlosung. Mit der Fixierung auf solche Extrempositionen werden wir den Herausforderungen der Zukunft sicherlich nicht gerecht. Höchste Zeit für eine Versachlichung und für einen klärenden Beitrag zum Verwirrspiel "Klima".
Temporal changes in the occurrence of extreme events in time series of observed precipitation are investigated. The analysis is based on a European gridded data set and a German station-based data set of recent monthly totals (1896=1899–1995=1998). Two approaches are used. First, values above certain defined thresholds are counted for the first and second halves of the observation period. In the second step time series components, such as trends, are removed to obtain a deeper insight into the causes of the observed changes. As an example, this technique is applied to the time series of the German station Eppenrod. It arises that most of the events concern extreme wet months whose frequency has significantly increased in winter. Whereas on the European scale the other seasons also show this increase, especially in autumn, in Germany an insignificant decrease in the summer and autumn seasons is found. Moreover it is demonstrated that the increase of extreme wet months is reflected in a systematic increase in the variance and the Weibull probability density function parameters, respectively.
Simulation of global temperature variations and signal detection studies using neural networks
(1998)
The concept of neural network models (NNM) is a statistical strategy which can be used if a superposition of any forcing mechanisms leads to any effects and if a sufficient related observational data base is available. In comparison to multiple regression analysis (MRA), the main advantages are that NNM is an appropriate tool also in the case of non-linear cause-effect relations and that interactions of the forcing mechanisms are allowed. In comparison to more sophisticated methods like general circulation models (GCM), the main advantage is that details of the physical background like feedbacks can be unknown. Neural networks learn from observations which reflect feedbacks implicitly. The disadvantage, of course, is that the physical background is neglected. In addition, the results prove to be sensitively dependent from the network architecture like the number of hidden neurons or the initialisation of learning parameters. We used a supervised backpropagation network (BPN) with three neuron layers, an unsupervised Kohonen network (KHN) and a combination of both called counterpropagation network (CPN). These concepts are tested in respect to their ability to simulate the observed global as well as hemispheric mean surface air temperature annual variations 1874 - 1993 if parameter time series of the following forcing mechanisms are incorporated : equivalent CO2 concentrations, tropospheric sulfate aerosol concentrations (both anthropogenic), volcanism, solar activity, and ENSO (all natural). It arises that in this way up to 83% of the observed temperature variance can be explained, significantly more than by MRA. The implication of the North Atlantic Oscillation does not improve these results. On a global average, the greenhouse gas (GHG) signal so far is assessed to be 0.9 - 1.3 K (warming), the sulfate signal 0.2 - 0.4 K (cooling), results which are in close similarity to the GCM findings published in the recent IPCC Report. The related signals of the natural forcing mechanisms considered cover amplitudes of 0.1 - 0.3 K. Our best NNM estimate of the GHG doubling signal amounts to 2.1K, equilibrium, or 1.7 K, transient, respectively.
The climate system can be regarded as a dynamic nonlinear system. Thus, traditional linear statistical methods fail to model the nonlinearities of such a system. These nonlinearities render it necessary to find alternative statistical techniques. Since artificial neural network models (NNM) represent such a nonlinear statistical method their use in analyzing the climate system has been studied for a couple of years now. Most authors use the standard Backpropagation Network (BPN) for their investigations, although this specific model architecture carries a certain risk of over-/underfitting. Here we use the so called Cauchy Machine (CM) with an implemented Fast Simulated Annealing schedule (FSA) (Szu, 1986) for the purpose of attributing and detecting anthropogenic climate change instead. Under certain conditions the CM-FSA guarantees to find the global minimum of a yet undefined cost function (Geman and Geman, 1986). In addition to potential anthropogenic influences on climate (greenhouse gases (GHG), sulphur dioxide (SO2)) natural influences on near surface air temperature (variations of solar activity, explosive volcanism and the El Nino = Southern Oscillation phenomenon) serve as model inputs. The simulations are carried out on different spatial scales: global and area weighted averages. In addition, a multiple linear regression analysis serves as a linear reference. It is shown that the adaptive nonlinear CM-FSA algorithm captures the dynamics of the climate system to a great extent. However, free parameters of this specific network architecture have to be optimized subjectively. The quality of the simulations obtained by the CM-FSA algorithm exceeds the results of a multiple linear regression model; the simulation quality on the global scale amounts up to 81% explained variance. Furthermore the combined anthropogenic effect corresponds to the observed increase in temperature Jones et al. (1994), updated by Jones (1999a), for the examined period 1856–1998 on all investigated scales. In accordance to recent findings of physical climate models, the CM-FSA succeeds with the detection of anthropogenic induced climate change on a high significance level. Thus, the CMFSA algorithm can be regarded as a suitable nonlinear statistical tool for modeling and diagnosing the climate system.
Observed global and European spatiotemporal related fields of surface air temperature, mean-sea-level pressure and precipitation are analyzed statistically with respect to their response to external forcing factors such as anthropogenic greenhouse gases, anthropogenic sulfate aerosol, solar variations and explosive volcanism, and known internal climate mechanisms such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). As a first step, a principal component analysis (PCA) is applied to the observed spatiotemporal related fields to obtain spatial patterns with linear independent temporal structure. In a second step, the time series of each of the spatial patterns is subject to a stepwise regression analysis in order to separate it into signals of the external forcing factors and internal climate mechanisms as listed above as well as the residuals. Finally a back-transformation leads to the spatiotemporally related patterns of all these signals being intercompared. Two kinds of significance tests are applied to the anthropogenic signals. First, it is tested whether the anthropogenic signal is significant compared with the complete residual variance including natural variability. This test answers the question whether a significant anthropogenic climate change is visible in the observed data. As a second test the anthropogenic signal is tested with respect to the climate noise component only. This test answers the question whether the anthropogenic signal is significant among others in the observed data. Using both tests, regions can be specified where the anthropogenic influence is visible (second test) and regions where the anthropogenic influence has already significantly changed climate (first test).