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Towards the goal to understand the role of land-surface processes over the Indian sub-continent, a series of soil-moisture sensitivity simulations have been performed using a non-hydrostatic regional climate model COSMO-CLM. The experiments were driven by the lateral boundary conditions provided by the ERA-Interim (ECMWF) reanalysis. The simulation results show that the pre-monsoonal soil moisture has a significant influence on the monsoonal precipitation. Both, positive and negative soil-moisture precipitation (S-P) feedback processes are of importance. The negative S-P feedback process is especially influential in the western and the northern parts of India.
The modern precipitation balance in southeastern (SE) Brazil is regulated by the South American summer Monsoon and threatened by global climate change. On glacial-interglacial timescales, monsoon intensity was strongly controlled by precession-forced changes in insolation. To date, relatively little is known about the spatiotemporal distribution of tropical precipitation in SE Brazil and the resulting variability of fluvial discharge on glacial-interglacial timescales. Here, we present X-ray diffraction-derived mineralogical data for the 150–70 ka period (marine isotope stage (MIS) 6 to MIS 5) from the Doce River basin. This area was sensitive to changes in monsoonal precipitation intensity due to its proximity to the South Atlantic Convergence Zone. The data, obtained from a marine sediment core (M125-55–7) close to the Doce river mouth (20°S), show pronounced changes in the Doce River suspension load’s mineralogical composition on glacial-interglacial and precessional timescales. While the ratio of silicates to carbonates displays precession-paced changes, the mineralogical composition of the carbonate-free fraction discriminates between two assemblages which strongly vary between glacial and interglacial time scales, with precession-forced variability only visible in MIS 5. The first assemblage, dominated by high contents of kaolinite and gibbsite, indicates intensified lowland erosion of mature tropical soils. The second one, characterized by higher contents of the well-ordered illite, quartz and albite, points to intensified erosion of immature soils in the upper Doce Basin. High kaolinite contents in the silicate fraction prevailed in late MIS 6 and indicate pronounced lowland soil erosion along a steepened topographic gradient. The illite-rich mineral assemblage was more abundant in MIS 5, particularly during times of high austral summer insolation, indicating strong monsoonal rainfall and intense physical erosion in the upper catchment. When the summer monsoon weakened in times of lower insolation, the mineral assemblage was dominated by kaolinite again, indicative of lower precipitation and runoff in the upper catchment and dominant lowland erosion.
The impact of precipitation in shallow cumulus convection on the moisture variance and third-order moments of moisture is investigated with the help of large-eddy simulations. Three idealized simulations based on the Rain in Cumulus over the Ocean field experiment are analyzed: one nonprecipitating, on a smaller domain, and two precipitating cases, on a larger domain with different initial profiles of moisture. Results show that precipitation and the associated cloud organization lead to increased generation of higher-order moments (HOM) of moisture compared to the nonprecipitating case. To understand the physical mechanism and the role of individual processes in this increase, budgets of HOM of moisture are studied. Microphysics directly decreases the generation of HOM of moisture, but this effect is not dominant. The gradient production term is identified as the main source term in the HOM budgets. The influence of the gradient production term on moisture variance is further examined separately in cloud active and nonactive regions. The main contribution to the gradient production term comes from the smaller cloud active region because of the stronger moisture flux. Further analyses of the horizontal and vertical cross sections of moisture fluctuations show that the precipitation-induced downdrafts and updrafts are the main mechanism for the generation of moisture variance. The variance increase is linked to shallow dry downdraft regions with horizontal divergence in the subcloud layer, moist updrafts with horizontal convergence in the bulk cloud layer, and finally wider areas of horizontal divergence in the cloud inversion layer.
Teleconnections of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation in a multi-model ensemble of QBO-resolving models
(2021)
The Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) dominates the interannual variability of the tropical stratosphere and influences other regions of the atmosphere. The high predictability of the QBO implies that its teleconnections could lead to increased skill of seasonal and decadal forecasts provided the relevant mechanisms are accurately represented in models. Here modelling and sampling uncertainties of QBO teleconnections are examined using a multi-model ensemble of QBO-resolving atmospheric general circulation models that have carried out a set of coordinated experiments as part of the Stratosphere-troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate (SPARC) QBO initiative (QBOi). During Northern Hemisphere winter, the stratospheric polar vortex in most of these models strengthens when the QBO near 50 hPa is westerly and weakens when it is easterly, consistent with, but weaker than, the observed response. These weak responses are likely due to model errors, such as systematically weak QBO amplitudes near 50 hPa, affecting the teleconnection. The teleconnection to the North Atlantic Oscillation is less well captured overall, but of similar strength to the observed signal in the few models that do show it. The models do not show clear evidence of a QBO teleconnection to the Northern Hemisphere Pacific-sector subtropical jet.
The current state of research about ancient settlements within the Nile Delta allows the hypothesizing of fluvial connections to ancient settlements all over the Nile Delta. Previous studies suggest a larger Nile branch close to Kom el-Gir, an ancient settlement hill in the northwestern Nile Delta. To contribute new knowledge to this little-known site and prove this hypothesis, this study aims at using small-scale paleogeographic investigations to reconstruct an ancient channel system in the surroundings of Kom el-Gir. The study pursues the following: (1) the identification of sedimentary environments via stratigraphic and portable X-ray fluorescence (pXRF) analyses of the sediments, (2) the detection of fluvial elements via electrical resistivity tomography (ERT), and (3) the synthesis of all results to provide a comprehensive reconstruction of a former fluvial network in the surroundings of Kom el-Gir. Therefore, auger core drillings, pXRF analyses, and ERT were conducted to examine the sediments within the study area. Based on the evaluation of the results, the study presents clear evidence of a former channel system in the surroundings of Kom el-Gir. Thereby, it is the combination of both methods, 1-D corings and 2-D ERT profiles, that derives a more detailed illustration of previous environmental conditions which other studies can adopt. Especially within the Nile Delta which comprises a large number of smaller and larger ancient settlement hills, this study's approach can contribute to paleogeographic investigations to improve the general understanding of the former fluvial landscape.
Nucleation of aerosol particles from trace atmospheric vapours is thought to provide up to half of global cloud condensation nuclei. Aerosols can cause a net cooling of climate by scattering sunlight and by leading to smaller but more numerous cloud droplets, which makes clouds brighter and extends their lifetimes. Atmospheric aerosols derived from human activities are thought to have compensated for a large fraction of the warming caused by greenhouse gases. However, despite its importance for climate, atmospheric nucleation is poorly understood. Recently, it has been shown that sulphuric acid and ammonia cannot explain particle formation rates observed in the lower atmosphere. It is thought that amines may enhance nucleation, but until now there has been no direct evidence for amine ternary nucleation under atmospheric conditions. Here we use the CLOUD (Cosmics Leaving Outdoor Droplets) chamber at CERN and find that dimethylamine above three parts per trillion by volume can enhance particle formation rates more than 1,000-fold compared with ammonia, sufficient to account for the particle formation rates observed in the atmosphere. Molecular analysis of the clusters reveals that the faster nucleation is explained by a base-stabilization mechanism involving acid–amine pairs, which strongly decrease evaporation. The ion-induced contribution is generally small, reflecting the high stability of sulphuric acid–dimethylamine clusters and indicating that galactic cosmic rays exert only a small influence on their formation, except at low overall formation rates. Our experimental measurements are well reproduced by a dynamical model based on quantum chemical calculations of binding energies of molecular clusters, without any fitted parameters. These results show that, in regions of the atmosphere near amine sources, both amines and sulphur dioxide should be considered when assessing the impact of anthropogenic activities on particle formation.
So-called medicanes (Mediterranean hurricanes) are meso-scale, marine, and warm-core Mediterranean cyclones that exhibit some similarities to tropical cyclones. The strong cyclonic winds associated with medicanes threaten the highly populated coastal areas around the Mediterranean basin. To reduce the risk of casualties and overall negative impacts, it is important to improve the understanding of medicanes with the use of numerical models. In this study, we employ an atmospheric limited-area model (COSMO-CLM) coupled with a one-dimensional ocean model (1-D NEMO-MED12) to simulate medicanes. The aim of this study is to assess the robustness of the coupled model in simulating these extreme events. For this purpose, 11 historical medicane events are simulated using the atmosphere-only model, COSMO-CLM, and coupled model, with different setups (horizontal atmospheric grid-spacings of 0.44°, 0.22°, and 0.08°; with/without spectral nudging, and an ocean grid-spacing of 1/12°). The results show that at high-resolution, the coupled model is able to not only simulate most of medicane events but also improve the track length, core temperature, and wind speed of simulated medicanes compared to the atmosphere-only simulations. The results suggest that the coupled model is more proficient for systemic and detailed studies of historical medicane events, and that this model can be an effective tool for future projections.
Spatial interpolation of precipitation data is uncertain. How important is this uncertainty and how can it be considered in evaluation of high-resolution probabilistic precipitation forecasts? These questions are discussed by experimental evaluation of the COSMO consortium's limited-area ensemble prediction system COSMO-LEPS. The applied performance measure is the often used Brier skill score (BSS). The observational references in the evaluation are (a) analyzed rain gauge data by ordinary Kriging and (b) ensembles of interpolated rain gauge data by stochastic simulation. This permits the consideration of either a deterministic reference (the event is observed or not with 100% certainty) or a probabilistic reference that makes allowance for uncertainties in spatial averaging. The evaluation experiments show that the evaluation uncertainties are substantial even for the large area (41 300 km2) of Switzerland with a mean rain gauge distance as good as 7 km: the one- to three-day precipitation forecasts have skill decreasing with forecast lead time but the one- and two-day forecast performances differ not significantly.
Spatial interpolation of rain gauge data is important in forcing of hydrological simulations or evaluation of weather predictions, for example. The spatial density of available data sites is often changing with time. This paper investigates the application of statistical distance, like one minus common variance of time series, between data sites instead of geographical distance in interpolation. Here, as a typical representative of interpolation methods the inverse distance weighting interpolation is applied and the test data is daily precipitation observed in Austria. Choosing statistical distance instead of geographical distance in interpolation of an actually available coarse observation network yields more robust interpolation results at sites of a denser network with actually lacking observations. The performance enhancement is in or close to mountainous terrain. This has the potential to parsimoniously densify the currently available observation network. Additionally, the success further motivates search for conceptual rain-orography interaction models as components of spatial rain interpolation algorithms in mountainous terrain.