C14 Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods
Filtern
Erscheinungsjahr
- 2008 (1)
Dokumenttyp
- Arbeitspapier (1)
Sprache
- Englisch (1) (entfernen)
Volltext vorhanden
- ja (1)
Gehört zur Bibliographie
- nein (1)
Schlagworte
- Termingeschäft (1)
- cointegrated systems (1)
- futures markets (1)
- nonparametric methods (1)
- partially linear models (1)
Institut
In this paper we consider the dynamics of spot and futures prices in the presence of arbitrage. We propose a partially linear error correction model where the adjustment coefficient is allowed to depend non-linearly on the lagged price difference. We estimate our model using data on the DAX index and the DAX futures contract. We find that the adjustment is indeed nonlinear. The linear alternative is rejected. The speed of price adjustment is increasing almost monotonically with the magnitude of the price difference.