D12 Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
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We study the redistributive effects of inflation combining administrative bank data with an information provision experiment during an episode of historic inflation. On average, households are well-informed about prevailing inflation and are concerned about its impact on their wealth; yet, while many households know about inflation eroding nominal assets, most are unaware of nominal-debt erosion. Once they receive information on the debt-erosion channel, households update upwards their beliefs about nominal debt and their own real net wealth. These changes in beliefs causally affect actual consumption and hypothetical debt decisions. Our findings suggest that real wealth mediates the sensitivity of consumption to inflation once households are aware of the wealth effects of inflation.
We propose a new instrument for estimating the price elasticity of gasoline demand that exploits systematic differences across U.S. states in the pass-through of oil price shocks to retail gasoline prices. These differences, which are primarily driven by variation in the cost of producing and distributing gasoline, create cross-sectional dispersion in gasoline price growth in response to an aggregate oil price shock. We find that the elasticity was stable near -0.3 until the end of 2014, but subsequently rose to about -0.2. Our estimates inform the recent debate about gasoline-tax holidays and policies to reduce carbon emissions.
With open banking, consumers take greater control over their own financial data and share it at their discretion. Using a rich set of loan application data from the largest German FinTech lender in consumer credit, this paper studies what characterizes borrowers who share data and assesses its impact on loan application outcomes. I show that riskier borrowers share data more readily, which subsequently leads to an increase in the probability of loan approval and a reduction in interest rates. The effects hold across all credit risk profiles but are the most pronounced for borrowers with lower credit scores (a higher increase in loan approval rate) and higher credit scores (a larger reduction in interest rate). I also find that standard variables used in credit scoring explain substantially less variation in loan application outcomes when customers share data. Overall, these findings suggest that open banking improves financial inclusion, and also provide policy implications for regulators engaged in the adoption or extension of open banking policies.