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Background: Descending inhibitory pain control contributes to the endogenous defense against chronic pain and involves noradrenergic and serotonergic systems. The clinical efficacy of antidepressants suggests that serotonin may be particularly relevant for neuropathic pain conditions. Serotonergic signaling is regulated by synthesis, metabolisms, reuptake and receptors. To address the complexity, we used inbred mouse strains, C57BL/6J, 129 Sv, DBA/2J and Balb/c, which differ in brain serotonin levels. Results: Serotonin analysis after nerve injury revealed inter-strain differences in the adaptation of descending serotonergic fibers. Upregulation of spinal cord and midbrain serotonin was apparent only in 129 Sv mice and was associated with attenuated nerve injury evoked hyperalgesia and allodynia in this strain. The increase of dorsal horn serotonin was blocked by hemisectioning of descending fibers but not by rhizotomy of primary afferents indicating a midbrain source. Para-chlorophenylalanine-mediated serotonin depletion in spinal cord and midbrain intensified pain hypersensitivity in the nerve injury model. In contrast, chronic inflammation of the hindpaw did not evoke equivalent changes in serotonin levels in the spinal cord and midbrain and nociceptive thresholds dropped in a parallel manner in all strains. Conclusion: The results suggest that chronic nerve injury evoked hypernociception may be contributed by genetic differences of descending serotonergic inhibitory control.
This paper investigates the accuracy and heterogeneity of output growth and inflation forecasts during the current and the four preceding NBER-dated U.S. recessions. We generate forecasts from six different models of the U.S. economy and compare them to professional forecasts from the Federal Reserve’s Greenbook and the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). The model parameters and model forecasts are derived from historical data vintages so as to ensure comparability to historical forecasts by professionals. The mean model forecast comes surprisingly close to the mean SPF and Greenbook forecasts in terms of accuracy even though the models only make use of a small number of data series. Model forecasts compare particularly well to professional forecasts at a horizon of three to four quarters and during recoveries. The extent of forecast heterogeneity is similar for model and professional forecasts but varies substantially over time. Thus, forecast heterogeneity constitutes a potentially important source of economic fluctuations. While the particular reasons for diversity in professional forecasts are not observable, the diversity in model forecasts can be traced to different modeling assumptions, information sets and parameter estimates. JEL Classification: C53, D84, E31, E32, E37 Keywords: Forecasting, Business Cycles, Heterogeneous Beliefs, Forecast Distribution, Model Uncertainty, Bayesian Estimation
How to be a good European...
(2010)
Unter der Überschrift "Ich kaufe griechische Staatsanleihen weil..." sollten Persönlichkeiten aus Politik, Wirtschaft und Kultur kurz begründen, warum sie griechische Staatsanleihen gekauft haben bzw. kaufen werden--idealerweise unter Nachweis ihres finanziellen Engagements. Zum jetzigen Zeitpunkt kaufe ich keine griechischen Staatsanleihen...
The use of water buffalos for landscape maintenance started ten years ago in Germany. Now, more than 2,100 buffalos are kept by about 90 breeders, and first results concerning their usefulness for landscape management are available. Buffalos are mainly used on particularly wet sites which cannot be grazed by cattle or other domestic animals. Although grazing of wetlands, river banks and water bodies is still controversial, early results from literature and our own research clearly indicate the beneficial impact of moderate grazing on such sites for birds, amphibians, vegetation and insects. This paper presents a short literature review and the first results of the BUBALUS project at Brandenburg University of Technology (BTU) and general experience from other projects.
Zum einen gilt es zu klären, inwiefern die im Zuge der empiristischen Neuausrichtung der Wissenschaften erfolgende Aufwertung von Beobachtungs- und Tatsachenwissen dem Archiv allgemein und der Bibliothek im besonderen die Rolle eines universalen Wissensspeichers zuweist und diesen Institutionen somit eine Schlüsselposition in der geplanten rationalen Erforschung und Beherrschung der Natur zukommen läßt. Zum anderen ist zu untersuchen, welchen Einfluß gesellschaftliche Demokratisierungsprozesse auf die Neukonzeption der Bibliothek ausüben, indem sie letztere in den Rang eines öffentlichen und möglichst pluralistisch verfaßten Meinungs- und Diskussionsforums zu erheben trachten. Erst im Kontrast zu diesen und doch auch im Anschluß an diese beiden historischen Typen eines Generalarchivs soll schließlich die Frage nach der Traum- bzw. Alptraumhaftigkeit des babylonischen Schriftkosmos erörtert werden, indem also eruiert wird, wie in Borges' literarischem Entwurf einer vollständigen Bibliothek der utopische Charakter des geschichtlichen Vollständigkeitsideals zugleich übernommen, radikalisiert und dabei doch auch im Geiste der Kombinatorik konsequent umgedeutet wird.
ecently, pertussis has become a problem also in the adult population, with incidences even higher than in children. Pediatric health care workers (HCWs) are an important source of transmission, exposing very young and immunocompromised patients to an increased risk of potentially severe pertussis infections. Encouraging HCWs to get vaccinated can play a vital role in stopping the transmission of pertussis, thereby reducing institutional outbreaks.
In Germany, HCWs come up with all sorts of reasons for not getting pertussis vaccination. This study was meant to provide information in order to better understand the backgrounds of these attitudes.
A survey was conducted at the children's university hospital in Frankfurt, using an anonymous questionnaire. Survey results were used to design an intervention to increase the immunization rate of staff. Disappointingly, our efforts to increase the acceptance of the immunization program by providing information in advance were not yet satisfying.
Misconception about pertussis vaccination was prevalent especially among nursing staff. The main reasons for non-compliance included: unawareness of an own risk of infection, the belief that pertussis is not a serious illness, fear of side effects, the belief that the pertussis vaccine might trigger the pertussis disease itself, and skepticism about the efficacy of the pertussis vaccination.
Influenza A (H1N1) 2009 : impact on Frankfurt in due consideration of health care and public health
(2010)
Background: In April 2009 a novel influenza A H1N1/2009 virus was identified in Mexico and in the United States which quickly spread around the world. Most of the countries established infection surveillance systems in order to track the number of (laboratory-confirmed) H1N1 cases, hospitalizations and deaths. Methods: The impact of the emergence of the novel pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus on Frankfurt was statistically evaluated by the Health Protection Authority, City of Frankfurt am Main. Vaccination rates of the health care workers (HCWs) of the University Hospital Frankfurt were measured by the Occupational Health Service. Results: Although the virulence of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 seems to be comparable with seasonal influenza, a major patient load and wave of hospital admissions occurred in the summer of 2009. Even though the 2009 vaccination rate of the University Hospital Frankfurt (seasonal influenza [40.5%], swine flu [36.3%]) is better than the average annual uptake of influenza vaccine in the German health care system (approximately 22% for seasonal and 15% for swine flu), vaccination levels remain insufficient. However, physicians were significantly (p < 0.001) more likely to have been vaccinated against swine flu and seasonal influenza than nurses. Conclusions: The outbreak of the pandemic (H1N1) 2009 in April 2009 provided a major challenge to health services around the world. Nosocomial transmission of H1N1/2009 has been documented. Present experience should be used to improve pandemic preparedness plans and vaccination programs ought to target as many HCWs as possible.
With respect to nosocomial influenza infections, the welfare of patients is best served by high rates of staff immunity against influenza. However, data from the Centers of Disease Control (CDC) in the USA and the Robert Koch-Institute (RKI) in Germany indicate that most of health care workers (HCWs) choose not to be vaccinated. Under voluntary influenza immunization standards, institutional influenza outbreaks occur every flu season. The question about the legality of implementation mandatory flu vaccination for HCWs is an ongoing debate, which covers several different positions.
To characterize the attitudes of German HCWs toward mandatory influenza immunization, an anonymous questionnaire was offered to HCWs of the University Hospital in Frankfurt/Main / Germany. Our study showed that almost 70% of the respondents would accept mandatory influenza vaccination.
In our opinion an annual influenza vaccination should be required for HCWs who care for immunocompromised patients and residents in long-term care if there will be a failure of voluntary vaccination programs. An informed declination should be obtained from employees who decline vaccination and these HCWs ought to work in uncritical areas of patient care.