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This thesis consist of three chapters of which each investigates a topic from financial and monetary economics. In the first chapter a novel method to analyze the monetary policy of central banks is presented. In the second chapter (joint work with Professor Michael Binder, Goethe-University Frankfurt) the effects of conditional loan programs of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on participating countries' output growth are investigated. In the third chapter (joint work with Professor Jan Pieter Krahnen, Goethe-University Frankfurt) a network model of interconnected bank balance sheets which gives rise to systemic risk is developed and used to analyze the implications of a bank levy related to banks' contribution to systemic risk. All three chapters give important insights to the policy design of macroeconomic institutions such as central banks, the IMF, and agencies charged with macroprudential supervision.
This thesis is concerned with various aspects of estimating trend output and growth and discusses and evaluates methods to prepare medium-term GDP growth projections. Furthermore, econometric techniques suited for cross-correlated macroeconomic panel data with a focus on factor models are applied for unit root and cointegration testing as well as panel error correction estimation. Applications involve the identification of growth determinants as well as the modelling of aggregate labor supply in a multi-country framework. The first chapter evaluates a very popular method for potential output estimation and medium-term forecasting---the production function approach---in terms of predictive performance. For this purpose, a particular forecast evaluation framework is developed and an evaluation of the predictions of GDP growth for the three to five years ahead for each individual G7 country is carried out. In chapter two, a new approach for estimating trend growth of advanced economies is proposed. The suggestion combines econometric methods that have been used to test and estimate the implications of the extended Solow growth model in a cross sectional time series setting with an application of multivariate time series filter techniques. The last chapter discusses several panel unit root tests designed to accommodate cross-sectional dependence. These methods are then applied to an OECD country sample of the aggregate labor supply measure "hours worked".