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Air-sea feedbacks between the Mediterranean Sea and the atmosphere on various temporal and spatial scales play a major role in the Mediterranean regional climate system and beyond. The Mediterranean Sea is a source of moisture due to excess evaporation and, on a long-term average, is associated with a warming of the lower atmosphere in contact with the sea surface due to heat loss at the air-sea interface. The complex air-sea interactions and feedbacks in the Mediterranean basin strongly modulate the sea surface fluxes and favor several cyclogenetic activities under certain meteorological conditions. Examples of such cyclonic activities are medicanes (Mediterranean hurricanes) and Vb-cyclones. Medicanes are mesoscale, marine, and warm-core Mediterranean cyclones that exhibit some similarities to tropical cyclones, while Vb-cyclones are extra-tropical cyclones, that propagate from the Western Mediterranean Sea and travel across the Eastern European Alps into the Central European region. Extremely strong winds and heavy precipitation associated with these cyclones can lead to severe destruction and flooding. Changes in the intensity and frequency of these cyclones are also projected under changing future climate conditions, where the Mediterranean region has been identified as a hotspot in terms of rising temperatures.
The development of high-resolution regional climate models (RCMs) has progressed our understanding of the processes characterizing the Mediterranean climate. However, large uncertainties still exist regarding the estimates of air-sea fluxes, which, in turn, affect the simulation of the Mediterranean climate. Several factors can be attributed to such discrepancies, such as data quality, temporal and spatial resolution, and the misrepresentation of physical processes. To overcome some of these inconsistencies and deficiencies of the existing climate simulations, a new high-resolution atmosphere-ocean regional coupled model (AORCM) has been developed to simulate the air-sea feedback mechanisms. This coupled model incorporates the coupling of RCM COSMO-CLM (CCLM) and the regional ocean model NEMO-MED12 for the Mediterranean Sea (MED) as well as NEMO-NORDIC for the North- and Baltic Sea (NORDIC). Several experiments were performed using both the coupled and uncoupled models to investigate the impact of air-sea interactions and feedbacks on sea surface heat fluxes, wind speed, and on the formation of Mediterranean cyclones (i.e., medicanes and Vb-cyclones). These experiments were performed using different horizontal atmospheric grid resolutions to analyze the effect of resolution on sea surface heat fluxes, wind speed, and the development of medicanes.
The results of the present study indicate that a finer atmospheric grid resolution ([is as appreciated as]9 vs. [is as appreciated as]50 km) improved the wind speed simulations (particularly near coastal areas) and subsequently improved the simulations of the turbulent heat fluxes. Both parameters were better simulated in the coupled simulations than in the uncoupled simulations, but coupling introduced a warm SST bias in winter. Radiation fluxes were slightly better represented in coarse-grid simulations than in fine-grid simulations. However, the higher-resolution coupled model could reproduce the observed net outgoing total surface heat flux over the Mediterranean Sea. In addition to that sub diurnal SST variations have a strong effect on sub-daily heat fluxes and wind speed but minor effects at longer timescales. Regarding the impact of atmospheric grid resolution ([is as appreciated as]50, 25, and [is as appreciated as]9 km) and ocean coupling on medicanes, it was detected that the coupled model with a finer atmospheric grid ([is as appreciated as]9 km) was able to not only reproduce most medicane events, but also improved the track length, warm core, and wind speed compared to the uncoupled model. The coupled model with the coarse-grid ([is as appreciated as]50 and [is as appreciated as]25 km) did not show any improvement in simulating medicanes compared to the uncoupled model. The spectral nudging technique, applied on the wind components above 850 hPa in the interior domain to keep large-scale circulation close to the driving data (i.e., ERAInterim reanalysis), improved the accuracy of the times and locations of generated medicanes, but no improvement was found in the track length and intensity.
Concerning the role of the Mediterranean Sea coupling on Vb cyclones, the investigation showed that atmosphere-ocean coupling had an overall positive impact, although with a strong case-by-case variation, on the trajectories and intensity of Vb-cyclones as a result of the variation in moisture source for each event. In general, all model configurations could replicate Vbcyclones, their trajectories, and associated precipitation fields. The average structure of the precipitation field was best represented in the coupled simulations. Coupling of the North- and Baltic Seas also showed an improvement in some of the simulated Vb-cyclones.
The atmosphere-ocean coupling showed an overall positive impact on the simulation of sea surface heat fluxes and Mediterranean cyclones (medicanes and Vb-cyclones). Moreover, the representation of sea surface heat fluxes, wind speed, and medicane features was more realistic when using a finer atmospheric grid resolution (less than 10 km). The present study suggests that the combination of a finer atmospheric grid resolution together with atmosphere-ocean coupling is advantageous in simulating the Mediterranean climate system.
Mistral and Tramontane are wind systems in southern France and the western Mediterranean Sea. Both are caused by similar synoptic situations and channeled in valleys. Their relevance for the climate of the western Mediterranean region motivated this work. The representation of Mistral and Tramontane in regional climate simulations was surveyed with the models ALADIN, WRF, PROMES, COSMO-CLM, RegCM, and LMDZ. ERA-Interim and global CMIP5 simulations (MPI-ESM, CMCC-CM, HadGEM2-ES, and CNRM-CM5) provided the lateral boundary data for the regional simulations regarding the 20th century and two representative concentration pathways for the 21st century (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5).
A Mistral and Tramontane time series, a principal component analysis of pressure fields, and a Bayesian network were combined to develop a classification algorithm to identify pressure patterns in favor of Mistral and Tramontane. The regional climate models were able to reproduce the observed climatology of Mistral and Tramontane. Compared to observational data (SAFRAN and QuikSCAT), the simulations underestimate the wind speed over the Mediterranean Sea, mainly at the borders of the main flow. Simulations with smaller grid spacing showed better agreement with the observations.
A sensitivity study tested the influence of the Charnock parameter on the Mistral wind field. Its value impacted both wind speed and wind direction. Decreasing the orographic resolution in idealized simulations using COSMO-CLM caused a reduction in wind speed and a broader flow area. Including a parameterization for subgrid scale orography improved the simulation. However, an accurate simulation of Mistral and Tramontane still requires a high-resolution orography.
The classification algorithm also was applied to pressure fields from regional climate simulations driven by global simulation data. At the end of the 21st century, only small, non-significant changes in the number of Mistral days per year occur in the projection simulations. The number of Tramontane days per year decreased significantly.
In light of the global sea-level rise and climate change of the 21th century, it is important to look back into the recent past in order to understand what the future might hold. A multi-proxy data set was compiled to evaluate the influence of geomorphological and environmental factors, such as antecedent topography, subsidence, sea level and climate, on reef, sand apron and lagoon development in modern carbonate platforms through the Holocene. Therefore, a combination of remote sensing and morphological data from 122 modern carbonate platforms and atolls in the Atlantic, Indian and Pacific Oceans were conducted, along with a case study from the oceanic (Darwinian) barrier-reef system of Bora Bora, French Polynesia, South Pacific.
The influence of antecedent topography and platform size as factors controlling Holocene sand apron development and extension in modern atolls and carbonate platforms is hypothesized. Antecedent topography describes the elevation and relief of the underlying Pleistocene topography (karst) and determines the distance from the sea floor to the rising postglacial sea level. Maximum lagoon depth and marginal reef thickness, when available in literature, were used as proxies for antecedent topography. Sand apron proportions of 122 atolls and carbonate platforms from the Atlantic, Indian and Pacific Oceans were quantified and correlated to maximum lagoon depth, total platform area and marginal reef thickness. This study shows that sand apron proportions increase with decreasing lagoon depths. Sand apron proportions also increase with decreasing platform area. The interaction of antecedent topography and Holocene sea-level rise is responsible for variations in accommodation space and at least determines the extension of the lateral expansion of sand aprons. In general, sand apron formation started when marginal reefs approached relative sea level. Spatial and regional variations in sea-level history let sand apron formation start earlier in the Indo-Pacific region (transgressive-regressive) than in the Western Atlantic Ocean (transgressive).
The influence of sea level, antecedent topography and subsidence of a volcanic island on late Quaternary reef development was evaluated based on six rotary core transects on the barrier and fringing reefs of Bora Bora. This study was designed to revalue the Darwinian model, the subsidence theory of reef development, which genetically connects fringing reef, barrier reef and atoll development by continuous subsidence of the volcanic basement. Postglacial sea-level rise, and to a minor degree subsidence, were identified as major factors controlling Holocene reef development in that they have created accommodation space and controlled reef architecture. Antecedent topography was also an important factor because the Holocene barrier reef is located on a Pleistocene barrier reef forming a topographic high. Pleistocene soil and basalt formed the pedestal of the fringing reef. Uranium-Thorium dating shows that barrier and fringing reefs developed contemporaneously during the Holocene.
In the barrier–reef lagoon of Bora Bora, the influence of environmental factors, such as sea level and climate, tsunamis and tropical cyclones controlling Holocene sediment dynamics was evaluated based on sedimentological, paleontological, geochronological and geochemical data. The lagoonal succession comprises mixed carbonate-siliciclastic sediments overlying peat and Pleistocene soil. The multi-proxy data set shows variations in grain-size, total organic carbon (proxy for primary productivity), Ca and Cl element intensities (proxies for carbonate availability and lagoonal salinity) during the mid-late Holocene. These patterns could result from event sedimentation during storms and correlate to event deposits found in nearby Tahaa, probably induced by elevated cyclone activity. Accordingly, elevated erosion and runoff from the volcanic island and lower lagoonal salinity would be a result of rainfall during repeated cyclone landfall. However, Ti/Ca and Fe/Ca ratios as proxies for terrigenous sediment delivery peaked out in the early Holocene and declined since the mid-Holocene. Benthic foraminifera assemblages do not indicate reef-to-lagoon transport. Alternatively, higher and sustained hydrodynamic energy is probably induced by stronger trade winds and a higher-than-present sea level during the mid-late Holocene. The increase in mid-late Holocene sediment dynamics within the back-reef lagoon is supposed to display sediment-load shedding of sand aprons due to the oversteepening of slopes at sand apron/lagoon edges during their progradation rather than an increase in tropical storm activity during that time.
The influence of sea-level and climate changes on sediment import, composition and distribution in the Bora Bora lagoon during the Holocene is validated. Lagoonal facies succession comprises siderite-rich marly wackestones, foraminifera-siderite wackestones, mollusk-foraminifera marly packstones and mollusk-rich wackestones during the early-mid Holocene, and mudstones since the mid-late Holocene. During the early Holocene, enhanced weathering and iron input from the volcanic island due to wetter climate conditions led to the formation of siderite within the lagoonal sediments. The geochemical composition of these siderites shows that precipitation was driven by microbial activity and iron reduction in the presence of dissolved bicarbonate. Chemical substitutions at grain margins illustrate changes in the oxidation state and probably reflect changes in pore water chemistry due to sea-level rise and climate change (rainfall). In the late Holocene, sediment transport into the lagoon is hampered by motus on the windward side of the lagoon, which led to early submarine lithification within the lagoon.
Floodplains and other wetlands depend on seasonal river flooding and play an important role in the terrestrial water cycle. They influence evapotranspiration, water storage and river discharge dynamics, and they are the habitat of a large number of animals and plants. Thus, to assess the Earth’s system and its changes, a robust understanding of the dynamics of floodplain wetlands including inundated areas, water storages, and water flows is required.
This PhD thesis aims at improving the modeling of large floodplains and wetlands within the global-scale hydrological model WaterGAP, in order to better estimate water flows and water storage variations in different storage compartments. Within the scope of this thesis, I have developed a new approach to simulate dynamic floodplain inundation on a global-scale. This approach introduces an algorithm into WaterGAP, which has a spatial resolution of 0.5 degree (longitude and latitude) globally. The new approach uses subgrid-scale topography, based on high-resolution digital elevation models, to describe the floodplain elevation profile within each grid cell by applying a hypsographic curve. The approach comprises the modeling of a two-way river-floodplain interaction, the separate downstream water transport within the river and the floodplain – both with temporally and spatially different variable flow velocities – and the floodplain-groundwater interactions. The WaterGAP version that includes the floodplain algorithm, WaterGAP 2.2b_fpl, estimates floodplain and river water storage, inundated area and water table elevation, and also simulates backwater effects.
WaterGAP 2.2b_fpl was applied to model river discharge, river flow velocity, water storages, water heights and surface water extent on a global-scale. Model results were comprehensively validated against ground observations and remote sensing data. Overall, the modeled and observed data are in agreement. In comparison to the former version WaterGAP 2.2b, the model performance has improved significantly. The improvements are most remarkable in the Amazon River basin. However, the seasonal variation of surface water extent and total water storage anomalies are still too low in many regions on the globe when compared to observations. A detailed analysis of the simulated results suggests that in the Amazon River basin the introduction of backwater effects is important for realistically simulating water storages and surface water extent. Future efforts should focus on the simulation of water levels in order to better model the flow routing according to water slope. To further improve the model performance in specific regions, I recommend that the globally constant model parameters that affect inundation initiation, river-floodplain interaction, DEM correction for vegetation, and backwater amount at basin or subbasin-scale be adjusted.