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We examine both the degree and the structural stability of inflation persis tence at different quantiles of the conditional inflation distribution. Previous research focused exclusively on persistence at the conditional mean of the inflation rate. Economic theory, however, provides various reasons -for example downward wage rigidities or menu costs- to expect higher inflation persistence at the upper than at the lower tail of the conditional inflation distribution.
Based on post-war US data we indeed find slower mean reversion in response to positive than to negative shocks. We find robust evidence for a structural break in persistence at all quantiles of the inflation process in the early 1980s. Inflation persistence has decreased and become more homogeneous across quantiles. Persistence at the conditional mean became more informative about the degree of persistence across the entire conditional inflation distribution. While prior to the 1980s inflation was not mean reverting in response to large positive shocks, our evidence strongly suggests that since the end of the Volcker disinflation the unit root can be rejected at every quantile including the upper tail of the conditional inflation distribution.
We examine both the degree and the structural stability of inflation persistence at different quantiles of the conditional inflation distribution. Previous research focused exclusively on persistence at the conditional mean of the inflation rate. As economic theory provides reasons for inflation persistence to differ across conditional quantiles, this is a potentially severe constraint. Conventional studies of inflation persistence cannot identify changes in persistence at selected quantiles that leave persistence at the median of the distribution unchanged. Based on post-war US data we indeed find robust evidence for a structural break in persistence at all quantiles of the inflation process in the early 1980s. While prior to the 1980s inflation was not mean reverting, quantile autoregression based unit root tests suggest that since the end of the Volcker disinflation the unit root can be rejected at every quantile of the conditional inflation distribution.
Highly-skilled labour migration in Switzerland: household strategies and professional careers
(2016)
The article investigates household strategies in the context of highly-skilled labour migration. It focuses on the ways highly-skilled migrants are taking up residence in Switzerland. The analysis shows different household strategies based on the perception of a further professional move. The perceived likeliness of a further move implies household strategies characterized by a high motility: the household remains ready to move and mobilises dedicated organisations (like outplacement agencies or international schools). When a further move is neither perceived nor wanted, the household develops more anchored strategies which are often cheaper. In order to cope with frequent mobilities, the analysis shows that household strategies are deeply gendered.
This paper investigates whether a fiscal stimulus implies a different impact for flexible and rigid labour markets. The analysis is done for 11 advanced OECD economies. Using quarterly data from 1999 to 2013, I estimate a panel threshold structural VAR model in which regime switches are determined by OECD’s employment protection legislation index. My empirical results indicate significant differences between rigid and flexible labour markets regarding the impact of the fiscal stimulus on output and unemployment. While the impulse response of real GDP to a government spending shock is positive and more effective in flexible labour markets, it has less impact in the rigid ones. Moreover, it is found that a fiscal stimulus leads to higher overall unemployment in highly regulated countries.
German Expressionist cinema is a movement that began in 1919. Expressionist film is marked by distinct visual features and performance styles that rebel against prior realist art movements. More than 20 years prior to the Expressionist movement, Sigmund Frued published "The Interpretation of Dreams" in 1899, a ground breaking study that links dreams to unconcious impulses. This thesis argues that the unexplained dream - like imagery found in two Expressionist films, The Cabinet of Dr. Caligari (Robert Wiene, 1920) and Dr. Mabus, the Gambler (Fritz Lang, 1922) - can be seen in terms of Freud's model of dreaming.
Der Beitrag erwägt aus bibelhermeneutischer Perspektive, wie es zu unterschiedlichen Idealisierungen des alttestamentlichen Gemeinwesens im politischen Denken der Frühen Neuzeit kam. Dabei werden zunächst allgemeine Faktoren berücksichtigt, die eine biblische Orientierung im politischen Denken ausgehend von der Reformationszeit im 16. Jahrhundert erklärbar machen. Ein Überblick über betreffende Quellentitel des 16. und 17. Jahrhunderts zeigt, dass hierbei in allen größeren Konfessionen, wenn auch in unterschiedlicher Dichte, das Ideal des alttestamentlich-jüdischen Gemeinwesens eine Rolle spielte. Entlang zweier Fallbeispiele (François Ragueau, Petrus Cunaeus) werden dann konfessionelle und transkonfessionelle Aspekte unterschieden, um neue Perspektiven auf das Konfessionalisierungsparadigma und andere Modernisierungstheorien zu eröffnen.
Bei der Realisierung der dringend nötigen Verkehrs- und Mobilitätswende sind Möglichkeiten der Befriedung menschlicher Mobilitätsbedürfnisse unabhängig von privater Autonutzung ein wichtiger Baustein. Im Rahmen dieser Arbeit werden darum instrumentelle, affektive und symbolische Motive der privaten Lastenradnutzung qualitativ erforscht. Das Lastenrad hat in den vergangenen Jahren insbesondere in urbanen Räumen an Popularität gewonnen und ermöglicht für den Transport von weiteren Personen, insbesondere Kindern, Tieren oder größeren Lasten eine emissionsarme oder -freie Fortbewegung. Die Untersuchungsergebnisse zeigen, dass bei den instrumentellen Motive die häufig nach Gender verteilte Sorgearbeit eine entscheidende Rolle einnimmt. Dabei erfüllt das Lastenrad das von den Ansprüchen Transportoptionen, Zeitsouveränität, Geschwindigkeit, Erreichbarkeit und Multifunktionalität geprägte Mobilitätsbedürfnis von Personen, die neben Sorge- auch Lohnarbeit im Alltag leisten, im urbanen Raum auf einzigartige Weise. Auch für Personen, deren Alltag nicht maßgeblich durch diese Doppelbelastung geprägt ist, stellt die mit dem Lastenrad mögliche optimierte Überwindung von Raum- und Zeitwiderständen ein relevantes instrumentelles Motiv dar. Hinzu kommen soziale Interaktion, Gesundheit und Klimaschutz. Dabei ist die Lastenradnutzung stark mit positiven emotionalen Reaktionen und hedonischem Erlebniswert verknüpft. Symbolisch drückt sie einen hohen finanziellen und sozialen Status der Besitzer*innen aus und genießt hohes Ansehen in ihrem sozialen Umfeld. Gleichzeitig kann mit der Lastenradnutzung das Bedürfnis nach Individualität und Distinktion erfüllt und der hohe Stellenwert, den nachhaltige Mobilität für die Lastenradbesitzer*innen dieser Untersuchung hat, ausgedrückt werden.
Spillovers of PE investments
(2022)
In this paper, we investigate a primary potential impact of leveraged buyout (LBOs) transactions: the effects of LBOs on the peers of the LBO target in the same industry. Using a data sample based on US LBO transactions between 1985 and 2016, we investigate the impact of the peer firms in the aftermath of the transaction, relative to non-peer firms. To account for potential endogeneity concerns, we employ a network-based instrumental variable approach. Based on this analysis, we find support for the proposition that LBOs do indeed matter for peer firms’ performance and corporate strategy relative to non-peer firms. Our study supports a learning factor hypothesis: peers gain by learning from the LBO target to improve their operational performance. Conversely, we find no evidence to support the conjecture that peers lose due to the increased competitiveness of the LBO target firm.
This paper outlines relatively easy to implement reforms for the supervision of transnational banking-groups in the E.U. that should not be primarily based on legal form but on the actual risk structures of the pertinent financial institutions. The proposal also aims at paying close attention to the economics of public administration and international relations in allocating competences among national and supranational supervisory bodies. Before detailing the own proposition, this paper looks into the relationship between sovereign debt and banking crises that drive regulatory reactions to the financial turmoil in the Euro area. These initiatives inter alia affirm effective prudential supervision as a pivotal element of crisis prevention. In order to arrive at a more informed idea, which determinants apart from a perceived appetite for regulatory arbitrage drive banks’ organizational choices, this paper scrutinizes the merits of either a branch or subsidiary structure for the cross-border business of financial institutions. In doing so, it also considers the policy-makers perspective. The analysis shows that no one size fits all organizational structure is available and concludes that banks’ choices should generally not be second-guessed, particularly because they are subject to (some) market discipline. The analysis proceeds with describing and evaluating how competences in prudential supervision are currently allocated among national and supranational supervisory authorities. In order to assess the findings the appraisal adopts insights form the economics of public administration and international relations. It argues that the supervisory architecture has to be more aligned with bureaucrats’ incentives and that inefficient requirements to cooperate and share information should be reduced. Contrary to a widespread perception, shifting responsibility to a supranational authority cannot solve all the problems identified. Resting on these foundations, the last part of this paper finally sketches an alternative solution that dwells on far-reaching mutual recognition of national supervisory regimes and allocates competences in line with supervisors’ incentives and the risk inherent in crossborder banking groups.
This paper contrasts the recent European initiatives on regulating corporate groups with alternative approaches to the phenomenon. In doing so it pays particular regard to the German codified law on corporate groups as the polar opposite to the piecemeal approach favored by E.U. legislation.
It finds that the European Commission’s proposal to submit (significant) related party transactions to enhanced transparency, outside fairness review, and ex ante shareholder approval is both flawed in its design and based on contestable assumptions on informed voting of institutional investors. In particular, the contemplated exemption for transactions with wholly owned subsidiaries allows controlling shareholders to circumvent the rule extensively. Moreover, vesting voting rights with (institutional) investors will not lead to the informed assessment that is hoped for, because these investors will rationally abstain from active monitoring and rely on proxy advisory firms instead whose competency to analyze non-routine significant related party transactions is questionable.
The paper further delineates that the proposed recognition of an overriding interest of the group requires strong counterbalances to adequately protect minority shareholders and creditors. Hence, if the Commission choses to go down this route it might end up with a comprehensive regulation that is akin to the unpopular Ninth Company Law Directive in spirit, though not in content. The latter prediction is corroborated by the pertinent parts of the proposal for a European Model Company Act.