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In the aftermath of the global financial crisis, the state of macroeconomicmodeling and the use of macroeconomic models in policy analysis has come under heavy criticism. Macroeconomists in academia and policy institutions have been blamed for relying too much on a particular class of macroeconomic models. This paper proposes a comparative approach to macroeconomic policy analysis that is open to competing modeling paradigms. Macroeconomic model comparison projects have helped produce some very influential insights such as the Taylor rule. However, they have been infrequent and costly, because they require the input of many teams of researchers and multiple meetings to obtain a limited set of comparative findings. This paper provides a new approach that enables individual researchers to conduct model comparisons easily, frequently, at low cost and on a large scale. Using this approach a model archive is built that includes many well-known empirically estimated models that may be used for quantitative analysis of monetary and fiscal stabilization policies. A computational platform is created that allows straightforward comparisons of models’ implications. Its application is illustrated by comparing different monetary and fiscal policies across selected models. Researchers can easily include new models in the data base and compare the effects of novel extensions to established benchmarks thereby fostering a comparative instead of insular approach to model development
The recent decline in euro area inflation has triggered new calls for additional monetary stimulus by the ECB in order to counter the threat of a self‐reinforcing deflation and recession spiral. This note reviews the available evidence on inflation expectations, output gaps and other factors driving current inflation through the lens of the Phillips curve. It also draws a comparison to the Japanese experience with deflation in the late 1990s and the evidence from Japan concerning the outputinflation nexus at low trend inflation. The note concludes from this evidence that the risk of a selfreinforcing deflation remains very small. Thus, the ECB best await the impact of the long‐term refinancing operations decided in June that have the potential to induce substantial monetary accommodation once implemented for the first time in September.
This paper investigates the accuracy and heterogeneity of output growth and inflation forecasts during the current and the four preceding NBER-dated U.S. recessions. We generate forecasts from six different models of the U.S. economy and compare them to professional forecasts from the Federal Reserve’s Greenbook and the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). The model parameters and model forecasts are derived from historical data vintages so as to ensure comparability to historical forecasts by professionals. The mean model forecast comes surprisingly close to the mean SPF and Greenbook forecasts in terms of accuracy even though the models only make use of a small number of data series. Model forecasts compare particularly well to professional forecasts at a horizon of three to four quarters and during recoveries. The extent of forecast heterogeneity is similar for model and professional forecasts but varies substantially over time. Thus, forecast heterogeneity constitutes a potentially important source of economic fluctuations. While the particular reasons for diversity in professional forecasts are not observable, the diversity in model forecasts can be traced to different modeling assumptions, information sets and parameter estimates. JEL Classification: C53, D84, E31, E32, E37 Keywords: Forecasting, Business Cycles, Heterogeneous Beliefs, Forecast Distribution, Model Uncertainty, Bayesian Estimation
The speakers of the Paraná dialect of Kaingáng, from whom the data of this study were gathered, have lived in close contact with the Brazilians since before the turn of the century. Although many members of this group are still monolingual and Kaingáng is spoken in all the homes, the influence of Portuguese is making an impact on the language. This can be seen not only in isolated loan words, but it is slowly changing the time dimension of the language and the thinking of the Indians. The change seems to have come about first through loan words, but it is now also affecting the semantic structure of the language and is beginning to affect the grammatical structure as well. The study here presented deals with this change as it can be seen in relation to time expressions such as yesterday – today – tomorrow; units of time such as day – month – year; kinship terms; and finally aspect particles. In considering the time expressions the meaning of various paradigms will be discussed. The paradigms are related to the time when events took place, to sequence of events, and to the point of the action. No Brazilian influence can be observed here. In the discussion of the units of time the semantic area of these units before and after Brazilian influence will be explored. Through Brazilian influence vocabulary has been developed with which it is possible to accurately pinpoint events in time which was not possible before this. The time distinctions within the kinship system will be discussed, and how they change with the influence of Brazilian terms. A whole new generation distinction is added in the modified kinship system. Similary several new aspect particles are being created through contractions, which now contain a time element. The whole development shows an emphasis on fine distinctions in time depth which came about through the contact with Portuguese and which can be observed in several points of the structure of Kaingáng.
In this paper we test previous claims concerning the universality of patterns of polysemy and semantic change in perception verbs. Implicit in such claims are two elements: firstly, that the sharing of two related senses A and B by a given form is cross-linguistically widespread, and matched by a complementary lack of some rival polysemy, and secondly that the explanation for the ubiquity of a given pattern of polysemy is ultimately rooted in our shared human cognitive make-up. However, in comparison to the vigorous testing of claimed universals that has occurred in phonology, syntax and even basic lexical meaning, there has been little attempt to test proposed universals of semantic extension against a detailed areal study of non-European languages. To address this problem we examine a broad range of Australian languages to evaluate two hypothesized universals: one by Viberg (1984), concerning patterns of semantic extension across sensory modalities within the domain of perception verbs (i .e. intra-field extensions), and the other by Sweetser (1990), concerning the mapping of perception to cognition (i.e. trans-field extensions). Testing against the Australian data allows one claimed universal to survive, but demolishes the other, even though both assign primacy to vision among the senses.
Im Zuge der fortlaufenden Digitalisierung im Mobilitätssektor werden aktuell besonders in Großstädten verstärkt geteilte on-demand Fahrdienstleistungen implementiert. Das sog. Ridepooling beschreibt eine dynamische und digitale Form des konventionellen Sammeltaxis, bei welcher durch eine intelligente Algorithmik mehrere voneinander unabhängige, zeitlich korrespondierende Fahrtwünsche in Echtzeit zu einer Route kombiniert werden. So können einander unbekannte Kund*innen gemeinsam und gleichzeitig nach ihren individuellen Bedürfnissen auf Direktverbindungen befördert werden. Viele der Ridepooling-Angebote werden in urban geprägten Raumstrukturen von privaten Verkehrsunternehmen - teilweise sogar eigenwirtschaftlich - betrieben und als nachhaltige Mobilitätsform beworben: Sie soll die sich individualisierenden Mobilitätsbedürfnisse der Bürger*innen befriedigen, dadurch städtische Problematiken wie hohe Luft- und Lärmbelastung, Staubildung sowie Flächenknappheit adressieren und zu einer umweltfreundlichen Verlagerung des lokalen Verkehrsaufkommens (Modal Shift) führen.
Die vorliegende Arbeit untersucht am Beispiel der Großstädte Berlin und Hamburg, wie und unter welchen Zielsetzungen der unterschiedlichen Akteure die neuen Angebotsformen implementiert wurden und welche Auswirkungen sie auf die städtischen Mobilitätssysteme haben.
Durch Expert*innen-Interviews mit städtischen Behörden, öffentlichen und privaten Verkehrsunternehmen, Verkehrsverbünden und Expert*innen für digitale und städtische Mobilität soll der aktuell noch geringe Forschungsstand über die Zielsetzungen, Formen und Auswirkungen von Ridepooling-Angeboten in städtischen Räumen um praxisnahe Betrachtungen und Erkenntnisse erweitert werden. Es kann angenommen werden, dass die unterschiedlichen Ausgestaltungen der untersuchten Angebote von ioki, CleverShuttle, MOIA und BerlKönig dabei durchaus voneinander differierende Effekte auf das Nutzungsverhalten der Kund*innen und die städtische Verkehrsgestaltung sowie deren ökologischen und sozialen Nachhaltigkeitsdimensionen haben.
Diese Arbeit nimmt Weiße Freiwillige aus Deutschland in den Blick, die einen Freiwilligendienst im Ausland geleistet haben und in rassistischen Machtverhältnissen eine privilegierte, das heißt Weiße Position einnehmen. Dabei dienen die Critical Whiteness Studies als fruchtbare Grundlage, um die Auseinandersetzung mit Rassismus aus Weißer privilegierter Perspektive zu untersuchen. Die Arbeit geht daher der Frage nach: Inwiefern die Erfahrungen im Freiwilligendienst und die begleitenden rassismuskritischen Seminare Weiße Nord-Nord und Nord-Süd Freiwillige dazu anregen, ihre Privilegien zu reflektieren und sich kritisch im rassistischen Machtsystem zu positionieren. Die Analyse der Interviews mit Weißen Freiwilligen zeigt, dass die Interviewten zum einen unterschiedliche Konfrontationserfahrungen mit Whiteness gemacht haben und zum anderen ihre daraus resultierenden Reflexionsprozesse und Umgangsweisen sehr divers ausfallen. Unterschiede zeigen sich jedoch nicht nur zwischen den Nord-Nord und Nord-Süd Freiwilligen, sondern auch situationsabhängig anhand der jeweiligen Erfahrungen der einzelnen Weißen Freiwilligen. Aus diesen Untersuchungen lässt sich ableiten, dass es auch für rassismus- und machtkritische Begleitseminare weiterhin eine zu bewältigende Herausforderung bleibt, die Relevanz der persönlichen Auseinandersetzung mit Whiteness und somit mit eigenen Privilegien und Verstrickungen in Rassismus – unabhängig vom Zielland des Freiwilligendienstes – zu vermitteln.
During the last years the relationship between financial development and economic growth has received widespread attention in the literature on growth and development. This paper summarises in its first part the results of this research, stressing the growth-enhancing effects of an increased interpersonal re-allocation of resources promoted by financial development. The second part of the paper seeks to identify the determinants of financial development based on Diamond's theory of financial intermediation as delegated monitoring. The analysis shows that the quality of corporate governance of banks is the key factor in financial system development. Accordingly, financial sector reforms in developing countries will only succeed if they strengthen the corporate governance of financial institutions. In this area, financial institution building has an important contribution to make. Paper presented at the First Annual Seminar on New Development Finance held at the Goethe University of Frankfurt, September 22 - October 3, 1997
Das Arbeitspapier zeigt Perspektiven eines Promotionsprojektes auf, das sich mit der Reform der englischen Common Law- und Equity-Gerichtsbarkeit im Viktorianischen Zeitalter befasst. Nach einem Einblick in relevante Quellen und Literatur wird inhaltlich auf Mitglieder und Aufgaben der im Jahr 1867 eingesetzten Judicature Commission eingegangen. Anschließend werden Neuerungen aufgezeigt, die für das englische Gerichtswesen aus den in den 1870er Jahren verabschiedeten Judicature Acts folgten.