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Ein Value-at-Risk-Limit wird als DM-Betrag gekennzeichnet, der von den tatsächlichen Handelsverlusten innerhalb einer bestimmten Zeitdauer nur mit geringer Wahrscheinlichkeit überschritten werden darf. Da der Bankvorstand i.d.R. Jahres-Value-at-Risk-Limite beschließt, im Handelsbereich die Geschäfte aber für einen kurzfristigen - unterstellt wird ein eintägiger - Planungshorizont abgeschlossen werden, ist zu klären, wie Jahres-Limite in Tages-Limite umgerechnet und während des Jahres realisierte Gewinne und Verluste auf die Limite angerechnet werden können. Auf der Grundlage des Umrechnungsverfahrens nach der Quadratwurzel-T-Formel lassen sich drei Verfahren für die Ermittlung des Tages-Limits unterscheiden: 1. Realisierte Gewinne und Verluste werden nicht angerechnet (starres Limit). 2. Bei Verlusteintritt vermindert sich das Tages-Limit für die Restperiode, realisierte Gewinne machen Kürzungen rückgängig (Verlustbegrenzungslimit). 3. Tages-Limite werden um Gewinne und Verluste angepaßt, wodurch eine Erweiterung des Handlungsspielraumes möglich ist (dynamisches Limit). Die drei Limite werden in einem Simulationsmodell gegeneinander abgewogen, wobei unterstellt wird, ein Händler handle nur eine einzige Aktie und antizipiere in 55% der Fälle die Kursrichtung. Die Simulationsergebnisse sind bei den unterstellten Renditeprozessen (geometrische Brownsche Bewegung und reale Renditen von 77 deutschen Aktien für die Zeit vom 01.01.1974 bis 31.12.1995) weitgehend identisch. Das dynamische Limit produziert deutlich höhere durchschnittliche Ergebnisse als das starre Limit und das Verlustbegrenzungslimit. Überschreitungen des Jahres-Limits treten nur beim starren Verfahren auf, die Häufigkeit ist allerdings wesentlich geringer als die zulässige Wahrscheinlichkeit von 1 %.
In this paper we analyze the relation between fund performance and market share. Using three performance measures we first establish that significant differences in the risk-adjusted returns of the funds in the sample exist. Thus, investors may react to past fund performance when making their investment decisions. We estimated a model relating past performance to changes in market share and found that past performance has a significant positive effect on market share. The results of a specification test indicate that investors react to risk-adjusted returns rather than to raw returns. This suggests that investors may be more sophisticated than is often assumed.
From the mid-seventies on, the central banks of most major industrial countries switched to monetary targeting. The Bundesbank was the first central bank to take this step, making the switch at the end of 1974. This changeover to monetary targeting was due to the difficulties which the Bundesbank - like other central banks - was facing in pursuing its original strategy, and whichcame to a head in the early seventies, when inflation escalated. A second factor was the collapse of the Bretton Woods system of fixed exchange rates, which created the necessary scope for national monetary targeting. Finally, the advance of monetarist ideas fostered the explicit turn towards monetary targets, although the Bundesbank did not implement these in a mechanistic way. Whereas the Bundesbank has adhered to its policy of monetary targeting up to the present, nowadays monetary targeting plays only a minor role worldwide. Many central banks have switched to the strategy of direct inflation targeting. Others favour a more discretionary approach or a policy which is geared to the exchange rate. In the academic debate, monetary targeting is often presented as an outdated approach which has long since lost its basis of stable money demand. These findings give riseto a number of questions: Has monetary targeting actually become outdated? Which role is played by the concrete design of this strategy, and, against this background, how easily can it be transferred to European monetary union? This paper aims to answer these questions, drawing on the particular experience which the Bundesbank has gained of monetary targeting. It seems appropriate to discuss monetary targeting by using a specific example, since this notion is not very precise. This applies, for example, to the money definition used, the way the target is derived, the stringency applied in pursuing the target and the monetary management procedure.
In this speech (given at the CFSresearch conference on the Implementation of Price Stability held at the Bundesbank Frankfurt am Main, 10. - 12. Sept 1998), John Vickers discusses theoretical and practical issues relating to inflation targeting as used in the United Kingdom doing the past six years. After outlining the role of the Bank s Monetary Policy Committee, he considers the Committee s task from a theoretical perspective, beforediscussing the concept and measurement of domestically generated inflation.
Credit Unions are cooperative financial institutions specializing in the basic financial needs of certain groups of consumers. A distinguishing feature of credit unions is the legal requirement that members share a common bond. This organizing principle recently became the focus of national attention as the Supreme Court and the U.S. Congress took opposite sides in a controversy regarding the number of common bonds that could co-exist within the membership of a single credit union. Despite its importance, little research has been done into how common bonds affect how credit unions actually operate. We frame the issues with a simple theoretical model of credit-union formation and consolidation. To provide intuition into the flexibility of multiple-group credit unions in serving members, we simulate the model and present some comparative-static results. We then apply a semi-parametric empirical model to a large dataset drawn from federally chartered occupational credit unions in 1996 to investigate the effects of common bonds. Our results suggest that credit unions with multiple common bonds have higher participation rates than credit unions that are otherwise similar but whose membership shares a single common bond.
"In this paper, I analyse the conduct of business rules included in the Directive on Markets in Financial Instruments (MiFID) which has replaced the Investment Services Directive (ISD). These rules, in addition to being part of the regulation of investment intermediaries, operate as contractual standards in the relationships between intermediaries and their clients. While the need to harmonise similar rules is generally acknowledged, in the present paper I ask whether the Lamfalussy regulatory architecture, which governs securities lawmaking in the EU, has in some way improved regulation in this area. In section II, I examine the general aspects of the Lamfalussy process. In section III, I critically analyse the MiFID s provisions on conduct of business obligations, best execution of transactions and client order handling, taking into account the new regime of trade internalisation by investment intermediaries and the ensuing competition between these intermediaries and market operators. In sectionIV, I draw some general conclusions on the re-regulation made under the Lamfalussy regulatory structure and its limits. In this section, I make a few preliminary comments on the relevance of conduct of business rules to contract law, the ISD rules of conduct and the role of harmonisation."
Die rechtliche Beurteilung der Verwendung des Gewinns von Zentralbanken bewegt sich im Überschneidungsbereich von: 1) Währungsrecht 2) Finanzverfassungsrecht und 3) Finanzpolitik. Rechtliche Bedenken ergeben sich im Wesentlichen aus den verfassungsrechtlichen Vorgaben für die Staatsfinanzierung sowie aus der Garantie der Unabhängigkeit der Europäischen Zentralbank und der Bundesbank. Maßgebende Rechtsquellen sind sowohl das Recht der Europäischen Union als auch das deutsche Finanzverfassungsrecht, angereichert um das einfache Haushaltsrecht des Bundes.
Das Recht der sog. eigenkapitalersetzenden Gesellschafterdarlehen ist in der jüngeren Vergangenheit zunehmend Gegenstand der Kritik geworden. Mit dem nachfolgenden Beitrag wird auf der Grundlage einer kritischen Analyse der lex lata ein Vorschlag für eine Vereinfachung der Regeln über die Gesellschafterfremdfinanzierung in der Krise entwickelt.
This paper proves correctness of Nocker s method of strictness analysis, implemented for Clean, which is an e ective way for strictness analysis in lazy functional languages based on their operational semantics. We improve upon the work of Clark, Hankin and Hunt, which addresses correctness of the abstract reduction rules. Our method also addresses the cycle detection rules, which are the main strength of Nocker s strictness analysis. We reformulate Nocker s strictness analysis algorithm in a higherorder lambda-calculus with case, constructors, letrec, and a nondeterministic choice operator used as a union operator. Furthermore, the calculus is expressive enough to represent abstract constants like Top or Inf. The operational semantics is a small-step semantics and equality of expressions is defined by a contextual semantics that observes termination of expressions. The correctness of several reductions is proved using a context lemma and complete sets of forking and commuting diagrams. The proof is based mainly on an exact analysis of the lengths of normal order reductions. However, there remains a small gap: Currently, the proof for correctness of strictness analysis requires the conjecture that our behavioral preorder is contained in the contextual preorder. The proof is valid without referring to the conjecture, if no abstract constants are used in the analysis.