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Understanding how temperature affects cod (Gadus morhua) ecology is important for forecasting how populations will develop as climate changes in future. The effects of spawning-season temperature and habitat size on cod recruitment dynamics have been investigated across the North Atlantic. Ricker and Beverton and Holt stock–recruitment (SR) models were extended by applying hierarchical methods, mixed-effects models, and Bayesian inference to incorporate the influence of these ecosystem factors on model parameters representing cod maximum reproductive rate and carrying capacity. We identified the pattern of temperature effects on cod productivity at the species level and estimated SR model parameters with increased precision. Temperature impacts vary geographically, being positive in areas where temperatures are <5°C, and negative for higher temperatures. Using the relationship derived, it is possible to predict expected changes in population-specific reproductive rates and carrying capacities resulting from temperature increases. Further, carrying capacity covaries with available habitat size, explaining at least half its variability across stocks. These patterns improve our understanding of environmental impacts on key population parameters, which is required for an ecosystem approach to cod management, particularly under ocean-warming scenarios. Key words: carrying capacity , cod , hierarchical models , North Atlantic , temperature , uncertainty
The current study tested the assumption that floristic and functional diversity patterns are negatively related to soil nitrogen content. We analyzed 20 plots with soil N-contents ranging from 0.63% to 1.06% in a deciduous forest near Munich (Germany). To describe species adaptation strategies to different nitrogen availabilities, we used a plant functional type (PFT) approach. Each identified PFT represents one realized adaptation strategy to the current environment. These were correlated, next to plant species richness and evenness, to soil nitrogen contents. We found that N-efficient species were typical for low soil nitrogen contents, while N-requiring species occur at high N-contents. In contrast to our initial hypotheses, floristic and functional diversity measures (number of PFTs) were positively related to nitrogen content in the soil. Every functional group has its own adaptation to the prevailing environmental conditions; in consequence, these functional groups can co-exist but do not out-compete one another. The increased number of functional groups at high N-contents leads to increased species richness. Hence, for explaining diversity patterns we need to consider species groups representing different adaptations to the current environmental conditions. Such co-existing ecological strategies may even overcome the importance of competition in their effect on biodiversity.
River flow regimes, including long-term average flows, seasonality, low flows, high flows and other types of flow variability, play an important role for freshwater ecosystems. Thus, climate change affects freshwater ecosystems not only by increased temperatures but also by altered river flow regimes. However, with one exception, transferable quantitative relations between flow alterations and ecological responses have not yet been derived. While discharge decreases are generally considered to be detrimental for ecosystems, the effect of future discharge increases is unclear. As a first step towards a global-scale analysis of climate change impacts on freshwater ecosystems, we quantified the impact of climate change on five ecologically relevant river flow indicators, using the global water model WaterGAP 2.1g to simulate monthly time series of river discharge with a spatial resolution of 0.5 degrees. Four climate change scenarios based on two global climate models and two greenhouse gas emissions scenarios were evaluated. We compared the impact of climate change by the 2050s to the impact of water withdrawals and dams on natural flow regimes that had occurred by 2002. Climate change was computed to alter seasonal flow regimes significantly (i.e. by more than 10%) on 90% of the global land area (excluding Greenland and Antarctica), as compared to only one quarter of the land area that had suffered from significant seasonal flow regime alterations due to dams and water withdrawals. Due to climate change, the timing of the maximum mean monthly river discharge will be shifted by at least one month on one third on the global land area, more often towards earlier months (mainly due to earlier snowmelt). Dams and withdrawals had caused comparable shifts on less than 5% of the land area only. Long-term average annual river discharge is predicted to significantly increase on one half of the land area, and to significantly decrease on one quarter. Dams and withdrawals had led to significant decreases on one sixth of the land area, and nowhere to increases. Thus, by the 2050s, climate change may have impacted ecologically relevant river flow characteristics more strongly than dams and water withdrawals have up to now. The only exception refers to the decrease of the statistical low flow Q90, with significant decreases both by past water withdrawals and future climate change on one quarter of the land area. However, dam impacts are likely underestimated by our study. Considering long-term average river discharge, only a few regions, including Spain, Italy, Iraq, Southern India, Western China, the Australian Murray Darling Basin and the High Plains Aquifer in the USA, all of them with extensive irrigation, are expected to be less affected by climate change than by past anthropogenic flow alterations. In some of these regions, climate change will exacerbate the discharge reductions, while in others climate change provides opportunities for reducing past reductions. Emissions scenario B2 leads to only slightly reduced alterations of river flow regimes as compared to scenario A2 even though emissions are much smaller. The differences in alterations resulting from the two applied climate models are larger than those resulting from the two emissions scenarios. Based on general knowledge about ecosystem responses to flow alterations and data related to flow alterations by dams and water withdrawals, we expect that the computed climate change induced river flow alterations will impact freshwater ecosystems more strongly than past anthropogenic alterations.
River flow regimes, including long-term average flows, seasonality, low flows, high flows and other types of flow variability, play an important role for freshwater ecosystems. Thus, climate change affects freshwater ecosystems not only by increased temperatures but also by altered river flow regimes. However, with one exception, transferable quantitative relations between flow alterations and ecosystem responses have not yet been derived. While discharge decreases are generally considered to be detrimental for ecosystems, the effect of future discharge increases is unclear. As a first step towards a global-scale analysis of climate change impacts on freshwater ecosystems, we quantified the impact of climate change on five ecologically relevant river flow indicators, using the global water model WaterGAP 2.1g to simulate monthly time series of river discharge with a spatial resolution of 0.5 degrees. Four climate change scenarios based on two global climate modelsand two greenhouse gas emissions scenarios were evaluated.
We compared the impact of climate change by the 2050s to the impact of water withdrawals and dams on natural flow regimes that had occurred by 2002. Climate change was computed to alter seasonal flow regimes significantly (i.e. by more than 10%) on 90% of the global land area (excluding Greenland and Antarctica), as compared to only one quarter of the land area that had suffered from significant seasonal flow regime alterations due to dams and water withdrawals. Due to climate change, the timing of the maximum mean monthly river discharge will be shifted by at least one month on one third on the global land area, more often towards earlier months (mainly due to earlier snowmelt). Dams and withdrawals had caused comparable shifts on less than 5% of the land area only. Long-term average annual river discharge is predicted to significantly increase on one half of the land area, and to significantly decrease on one quarter. Dams and withdrawals had led to significant decreases on one sixth of the land area, and nowhere to increases.
Thus, by the 2050s, climate change will have impacted ecologically relevant river flow characteristics much more strongly than dams and water withdrawals have up to now. The only exception refers to the decrease of the statistical low flow Q90, with significant decreases both by past water withdrawals and future climate change on one quarter of the land area. Considering long-term average river discharge, only a few regions, including Spain, Italy, Iraq, Southern India, Western China, the Australian Murray Darling Basin and the High Plains Aquifer in the USA, all of them with extensive irrigation, are expected to be less affected by climate change than by past anthropogenic flow alterations. In some of these regions, climate change will exacerbate the discharge reduction. Emissions scenario B2 leads to only slightly reduced alterations of river flow regimes as compared to scenario A2 even though emissions are much smaller. The differences in alterations resulting from the two applied climate models are larger than those resulting from the two emissions scenarios. Based on general knowledge about ecosystem responses to flow alterations and data related to flow alterations by dams and water withdrawals, we expect that the computed climate change induced river flow alterations will impact freshwater ecosystems more strongly than past anthropogenic alterations.
We present the analysis of the impact of convection on the composition of the tropical tropopause layer region (TTL) in West-Africa during the AMMA-SCOUT campaign. Geophysica M55 aircraft observations of water vapor, ozone, aerosol and CO2 show perturbed values at altitudes ranging from 14 km to 17 km (above the main convective outflow) and satellite data indicates that air detrainment is likely originated from convective cloud east of the flight. Simulations of the BOLAM mesoscale model, nudged with infrared radiance temperatures, are used to estimate the convective impact in the upper troposphere and to assess the fraction of air processed by convection. The analysis shows that BOLAM correctly reproduces the location and the vertical structure of convective outflow. Model-aided analysis indicates that in the outflow of a large convective system, deep convection can largely modify chemical composition and aerosol distribution up to the tropical tropopause. Model analysis also shows that, on average, deep convection occurring in the entire Sahelian transect (up to 2000 km E of the measurement area) has a non negligible role in determining TTL composition.
Soil biogenic NO emissions (SNOx) play important direct and indirect roles in chemical processes of the troposphere. The most widely applied algorithm to calculate SNOx in global models was published 15 years ago by Yienger and Levy (1995), was based on very few measurements. Since then numerous new measurements have been published, which we used to build up a atabase of field measurements conducted world wide covering the period from 1978 to 2009, including 108 publications with 560 measurements.
Recently, several satellite based top-down approaches, which recalculated the different sources of NOx (fossil fuel, biomass burning, soil and lightning), have shown an underestimation of SNOx by the algorithm of Yienger and Levy (1995). Nevertheless, to our knowledge no general improvements of this algorithm have yet been published.
Here we present major improvements to the algorithm, which should help to optimize the representation of SNOx in atmospheric-chemistry global climate models, without modifying the underlying principal or mathematical equations. The changes include: 1) Using a new up to date land cover map, with twice the number of land cover classes, and using annually varying fertilizer application rates; 2) Adopting the fraction of SNOx induced by fertilizer application based on our database; 3) Switching from soil water column to volumetric soil moisture, to distinguish between the wet and dry state; 4) Tuning the emission factors to reproduce the measured emissions in our database and calculate the emissions based on their mean value. These steps lead us to increased global yearly SNOx, and our total SNOx source ends up being close to one of the top-down approaches. In some geographical regions the new results agree better with the top-down approach, but there are also distinct differences in other regions. This suggests that a ombination of both top-down and bottom-up approaches could be combined in a future attempt to provide an even better calculation of SNOx.
ucleation experiments starting from the reaction of OH radicals with SO2 have been performed in the IfT-LFT flow tube under atmospheric conditions at 293±0.5 K for a relative humidity of 13–61%. The presence of different additives (H2, CO, 1,3,5-trimethylbenzene) for adjusting the OH radical concentration and resulting OH levels in the range (4–300)·105 molecule cm−3 did not influence the nucleation process itself. The number of detected particles as well as the threshold H2SO4 concentration needed for nucleation was found to be strongly dependent on the counting efficiency of the used counting devices. High-sensitivity particle counters allowed the measurement of freshly nucleated particles with diameters down to about 1.5 nm. A parameterization of the experimental data was developed using power law equations for H2SO4 and H2O vapour. The exponent for H2SO4 from different measurement series was in the range of 1.7–2.1 being in good agreement with those arising from analysis of nucleation events in the atmosphere. For increasing relative humidity, an increase of the particle number was observed. The exponent for H2O vapour was found to be 3.1 representing a first estimate. Addition of 1.2·1011 molecule cm−3 or 1.2·1012 molecule cm−3 of NH3 (range of atmospheric NH3 peak concentrations) revealed that NH3 has a measureable, promoting effect on the nucleation rate under these conditions. The promoting effect was found to be more pronounced for relatively dry conditions. NH3 showed a contribution to particle growth. Adding the amine tert-butylamine instead of NH3, the enhancing impact for nucleation and particle growth appears to be stronger.
Nucleation experiments starting from the reaction of OH radicals with SO2 have been performed in the IfT-LFT flow tube under atmospheric conditions at 293±0.5 K for a relative humidity of 13–61%. The presence of different additives (H2, CO, 1,3,5-trimethylbenzene) for adjusting the OH radical concentration and resulting OH levels in the range (4–300) ×105 molecule cm -3 did not influence the nucleation process itself. The number of detected particles as well as the threshold H2SO4 concentration needed for nucleation was found to be strongly dependent on the counting efficiency of the used counting devices. High-sensitivity particle counters allowed the measurement of freshly nucleated particles with diameters down to about 1.5 nm. A parameterization of the experimental data was developed using power law equations for H2SO4 and H2O vapour. The exponent for H2SO4 from different measurement series was in the range of 1.7–2.1 being in good agreement with those arising from analysis of nucleation events in the atmosphere. For increasing relative humidity, an increase of the particle number was observed. The exponent for H2O vapour was found to be 3.1 representing an upper limit. Addition of 1.2×1011 molecule cm -3 or 1.2×1012 molecule cm -3 of NH3 (range of atmospheric NH3 peak concentrations) revealed that NH3 has a measureable, promoting effect on the nucleation rate under these conditions. The promoting effect was found to be more pronounced for relatively dry conditions, i.e. a rise of the particle number by 1–2 orders of magnitude at RH = 13% and only by a factor of 2–5 at RH = 47% (NH3 addition: 1.2×1012 molecule cm -3). Using the amine tert-butylamine instead of NH3, the enhancing impact of the base for nucleation and particle growth appears to be stronger. Tert-butylamine addition of about 1010 molecule cm -3 at RH = 13% enhances particle formation by about two orders of magnitude, while for NH3 only a small or negligible effect on nucleation in this range of concentration appeared. This suggests that amines can strongly influence atmospheric H2SO4-H2O nucleation and are probably promising candidates for explaining existing discrepancies between theory and observations.
Östlich des Rwenzori Gebirges im Westen Ugandas wurden magnetotellurische Messungen durchgeführt. An 23 Stationen wurden Übertragungsfunktionen und Phasen Tensor Elemente zwischen den gemessenen magnetischen- und tellurischen Feldern im Periodenbereich von 10s bis 10000s geschätzt. Die Übertragungsfunktionen deuten eine komplexe drei dimensionale Leitfähigkeitsstruktur innerhalb der Kruste an, insbesondere in der Verbindungszone zwischen dem Rwenzori Gebirge und der östlichen Riftschulter. In dieser Arbeit wird eine alternative Darstellung der Phasen Tensor Ellipsen als Balken eingeführt. Für Perioden größer 100s zeigen die maximalen Phasen der Phasen Tensor Balken aller Stationen einheitlich in SSW-NNE und die Phasen Tensor Invarianten f min und f max weisen eine Differenz von mindestens 20° auf. Dieses auffällige Verhalten und die kleinen vertikalen magnetischen Feldr im gleich Periodenbereich kann mit einer anisotropen Leitfähigkeit in einer Tiefenbereich zwischen 30-50km mit der gut leitenden Richtung senkrecht zur Riftachse erklärt werden. Die Anisotropie könnte ihren Ursprung in orientierten Olivien Kristallen im oberen Mantel haben, wobei die Orientierungsrichtung mit der Delamination der Unterkruste unter den Rwenzoris zusammen hängen kann. Eine gut leitende Zone süd-östlich der Rwenzoris wurde in 15km Tiefe gefunden, die mit einer seismischen low velocity zone übereinstimmt und partielle Schmelzen innerhalb der Kruste andeutet. An allen Stationen steigt die minimale Phase bei der Periode 200s über 45° und zeigt einen Anstieg der elektrischen Leitfähigkeit unterhalb der Lithosphäre an.