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Background & Aims: Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) are increasingly a cause of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma globally. This burden is expected to increase as epidemics of obesity, diabetes and metabolic syndrome continue to grow. The goal of this analysis was to use a Markov model to forecast NAFLD disease burden using currently available data.
Methods: A model was used to estimate NAFLD and NASH disease progression in eight countries based on data for adult prevalence of obesity and type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM). Published estimates and expert consensus were used to build and validate the model projections.
Results: If obesity and DM level off in the future, we project a modest growth in total NAFLD cases (0–30%), between 2016–2030, with the highest growth in China as a result of urbanization and the lowest growth in Japan as a result of a shrinking population. However, at the same time, NASH prevalence will increase 15–56%, while liver mortality and advanced liver disease will more than double as a result of an aging/increasing population.
Conclusions: NAFLD and NASH represent a large and growing public health problem and efforts to understand this epidemic and to mitigate the disease burden are needed. If obesity and DM continue to increase at current and historical rates, both NAFLD and NASH prevalence are expected to increase. Since both are reversible, public health campaigns to increase awareness and diagnosis, and to promote diet and exercise can help manage the growth in future disease burden.
Lay summary: Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis can lead to advanced liver disease. Both conditions are becoming increasingly prevalent as the epidemics of obesity and diabetes continue to increase. A mathematical model was built to understand how the disease burden associated with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis will change over time. Results suggest increasing cases of advanced liver disease and liver-related mortality in the coming years.
Background & Aims: NAFLD is a growing health concern. The aim of the Fatty Liver Assessment in Germany (FLAG) study was to assess disease burden and provide data on the standard of care from secondary care. Methods: The FLAG study is an observational real-world study in patients with NAFLD enrolled at 13 centres across Germany. Severity of disease was assessed by non-invasive surrogate scores and data recorded at baseline and 12 months. Results: In this study, 507 patients (mean age 53 years; 47% women) were enrolled. According to fibrosis-4 index, 64%, 26%, and 10% of the patients had no significant fibrosis, indeterminate stage, and advanced fibrosis, respectively. Patients with advanced fibrosis were older, had higher waist circumferences, and higher aspartate aminotransferase and gamma-glutamyltransferase as well as ferritin levels. The prevalence of obesity, arterial hypertension, and type 2 diabetes increased with fibrosis stages. Standard of care included physical exercise >2 times per week in 17% (no significant fibrosis), 19% (indeterminate), and 6% (advanced fibrosis) of patients. Medication with either vitamin E, silymarin, or ursodeoxycholic acid was reported in 5%. Approximately 25% of the patients received nutritional counselling. According to the FibroScan-AST score, 17% of patients presented with progressive non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (n = 107). On follow-up at year 1 (n = 117), weight loss occurred in 47% of patients, of whom 17% lost more than 5% of body weight. In the weight loss group, alanine aminotransferase activities were reduced by 20%. Conclusions: This is the first report on NAFLD from a secondary-care real-world cohort in Germany. Every 10th patient presented with advanced fibrosis at baseline. Management consisted of best supportive care and lifestyle recommendations. The data highlight the urgent need for systematic health agenda in NAFLD patients. Lay summary: FLAG is a real-world cohort study that examined the liver disease burden in secondary and tertiary care. Herein, 10% of patients referred to secondary care for NAFLD exhibited advanced liver disease, whilst 64% had no significant liver scarring. These findings underline the urgent need to define patient referral pathways for suspected liver disease.