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This paper uses factor-augmented vector autoregressions (FAVAR) estimated using a large data set to disentangle fluctuations in disaggregated consumer and producer prices which are due to macroeconomic factors from those due to sectorial conditions. This allows us to provide consistent estimates of the effects of US monetary policy on disaggregated prices. While sectorial prices respond quickly to sector-specific shocks, we find that for a large number of price series, there is a significant delay in the response of prices to monetary policy shocks. In addition, price responses display little evidence of a “price puzzle,” contrary to existing studies based on traditional VARs. The observed dispersion in the reaction of producer prices is relatively well explained by the degree of market power, as predicted by models with monopolistic competition. JEL Classification: E32, E52
This paper analyzes loan pricing when there is multiple banking and borrower distress. Using a unique data set on SME lending collected from major German banks, we can instrument for effective coordination between lenders, carrying out a panel estimation. The analysis allows to distinguish between rents that accrue due to single bank lending, rents that accrue due to relationship lending, and rents that accrue due to the elimination of competition among multiple lenders. We find the relationship lending to have no discernible impact on loan spreads, while both single lending and coordinated multiple lending significantly increase the spread. Thus, contrary to predictions in the literature, multiple lending does not insure the borrower against hold-up. JEL Classification: D74, G21, G33, G34
This paper addresses and resolves the issue of microstructure noise when measuring the relative importance of home and U.S. market in the price discovery process of Canadian interlisted stocks. In order to avoid large bounds for information shares, previous studies applying the Cholesky decomposition within the Hasbrouck (1995) framework had to rely on high frequency data. However, due to the considerable amount of microstructure noise inherent in return data at very high frequencies, these estimators are distorted. We offer a modified approach that identifies unique information shares based on distributional assumptions and thereby enables us to control for microstructure noise. Our results indicate that the role of the U.S. market in the price discovery process of Canadian interlisted stocks has been underestimated so far. Moreover, we suggest that rather than stock specific factors, market characteristics determine information shares.
I employ a large set of scanner price data collected in retail stores to document that (i) although the average magnitude of price changes is large, a substantial number of price changes are small in absolute value; (ii) the distribution of non-zero price changes has fat tails; and (iii) stores tend to adjust prices of goods in narrow product categories simultaneously. I extend the standard menu costs model to a multi-product setting in which firms face economies of scale in the technology of adjusting prices. The model, because of its ability to replicate this additional set of micro-economic facts, can generate aggregate fluctuations much larger than those in standard menu costs economies. JEL Classification: E31, E32
This paper examines intraday stock price effects and trading activity caused by ad hoc disclosures in Germany. The evidence suggests that the observed stock prices react within 90 minutes after the ad hoc disclosures. Trading volumes take even longer to adjust. We find no evidence for abnormal price reactions or abnormal trading volume before announcements. The bigger the company that announces an ad hoc disclosure, the less severe is the abnormal price effect following the announcement. The number of analysts is negatively correlated to the trading volume effect before the ad hoc disclosure. The higher the trading volume on the last trading day before the announcement, the greater is the price effect after the ad hoc disclosures and the greater the trading volume effect. Keywords: ad hoc disclosure rules, intraday stock price adjustments, market efficiency.
Market efficiency today
(2006)
This CFS Working Paper has been presented at the CFSsymposium "Market Efficiency Today" held in Frankfurt/Main on October 6, 2005. In 2004 the Center for Financial Studies (CFS) in cooperation with the Johann Wolfgang Goethe University, Frankfurt/Main established an international academic prize, which is to be known as The Deutsche Bank Prize in Financial Economics. The prize will honor an internationally renowned researcher who has excelled through influential contributions to research in the fields of finance and money and macroeconomics, and whose work has lead to practice and policy-relevant results. The Deutsche Bank Prize in Financial Economics has been awarded for the first time in October 2005. The prize, sponsored by the Stiftungsfonds Deutsche Bank im Stifterverband für die Deutsche Wissenschaft, carries a cash award of € 50,000. The prize will be awarded every two years and the prize holder will be appointed a "Distinguished Fellow" of the CFS. The role of media partner for the Deutsche Bank Prize in Financial Economics is to be filled by the internationally renowned publication, The Economist and the Handelsblatt, the leading German-language financial and business newspaper.
We reconsider the issue of price discovery in spot and futures markets. We use a threshold error correction model to allow for arbitrage operations to have an impact on the return dynamics. We estimate the model using quote midpoints, and we modify the model to account for time-varying transaction costs. We find that the futures market leads in the process of price discovery. The lead of the futures market is more pronounced in the presence of arbitrage signals. Thus, when the deviation between the spot and the futures market is large, the spot market tends to adjust to the futures market.