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In the aftermath of the global financial crisis and great recession, many countries face substantial deficits and growing debts. In the United States, federal government outlays as a ratio to GDP rose substantially from about 19.5 percent before the crisis to over 24 percent after the crisis. In this paper we consider a fiscal consolidation strategy that brings the budget to balance by gradually reducing this spending ratio over time to the level that prevailed prior to the crisis. A crucial issue is the impact of such a consolidation strategy on the economy. We use structural macroeconomic models to estimate this impact focussing primarily on a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with price and wage rigidities and adjustment costs. We separate out the impact of reductions in government purchases and transfers, and we allow for a reduction in both distortionary taxes and government debt relative to the baseline of no consolidation. According to the model simulations GDP rises in the short run upon announcement and implementation of this fiscal consolidation strategy and remains higher than the baseline in the long run. We explore the role of the mix of expenditure cuts and tax reductions as well as gradualism in achieving this policy outcome. Finally, we conduct sensitivity studies regarding the type of model used and its parameterization.
In the aftermath of the global financial crisis and great recession, many countries face substantial deficits and growing debts. In the United States, federal government outlays as a ratio to GDP rose substantially from about 19.5 percent before the crisis to over 24 percent after the crisis. In this paper we consider a fiscal consolidation strategy that brings the budget to balance by gradually reducing this spending ratio over time to the level that prevailed prior to the crisis. A crucial issue is the impact of such a consolidation strategy on the economy. We use structural macroeconomic models to estimate this impact focussing primarily on a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with price and wage rigidities and adjustment costs. We separate out the impact of reductions in government purchases and transfers, and we allow for a reduction in both distortionary taxes and government debt relative to the baseline of no consolidation. According to the model simulations GDP rises in the short run upon announcement and implementation of this fiscal consolidation strategy and remains higher than the baseline in the long run. We explore the role of the mix of expenditure cuts and tax reductions as well as gradualism in achieving this policy outcome. Finally, we conduct sensitivity studies regarding the type of model used and its parameterization.
Recently, we evaluated a fiscal consolidation strategy for the United States that would bring the government budget into balance by gradually reducing government spending relative to GDP to the ratio that prevailed prior to the crisis (Cogan et al, JEDC 2013). Specifically, we published an analysis of the macroeconomic consequences of the 2013 Budget Resolution that was passed by the U.S. House of Representatives in March 2012. In this note, we provide an update of our research that evaluates this year’s budget reform proposal that is to be discussed and voted on in the House of Representative in March 2013. Contrary to the views voiced by critics of fiscal consolidation, we show that such a reduction in government purchases and transfer payments can increase GDP immediately and permanently relative to a policy without spending restraint. Our research makes use of a modern structural model of the economy that incorporates the long-standing essential features of economics: opportunity costs, efficiency, foresight and incentives. GDP rises because households take into account that spending restraint helps avoid future increases in tax rates. Lower taxes imply less distorted incentives for work, investment and production relative to a scenario without fiscal consolidation and lead to higher growth.
In the aftermath of the global financial crisis and great recession, many countries face substantial deficits and growing debts. In the United States, federal government outlays as a ratio to GDP rose substantially from about 19.5 percent before the crisis to over 24 percent after the crisis. In this paper we consider a fiscal consolidation strategy that brings the budget to balance by gradually reducing this spending ratio over time to the level that prevailed prior to the crisis. A crucial issue is the impact of such a consolidation strategy on the economy. We use structural macroeconomic models to estimate this impact. We consider two types of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models: a neoclassical growth model and more complicated models with price and wage rigidities and adjustment costs. We separate out the impact of reductions in government purchases and transfers, and we allow for a reduction in both distortionary taxes and government debt relative to the baseline of no consolidation. According to the initial model simulations GDP rises in the short run upon announcement and implementation of this fiscal consolidation strategy and remains higher than the baseline in the long run.
Savings accounts are owned by most households, but little is known about the performance of households’ investments. We create a unique dataset by matching information on individual savings accounts from the DNB Household Survey with market data on account-specific interest rates and characteristics. We document considerable heterogeneity in returns across households, which can be partly explained by financial sophistication. A one-standard deviation increase in financial literacy is associated with a 13% increase compared to the median interest rate. We isolate the usage of modern technology (online accounts) as one channel through which financial literacy has a positive association with returns.
Corporate borrowers care about the overall riskiness of a bank’s operations as their continued access to credit may rely on the bank’s ability to roll over loans or to expand existing credit facilities. As we show, a key implication of this observation is that increasing competition among banks should have an asymmetric impact on banks’ incentives to take on risk: Banks that are already riskier will take on yet more risk, while their safer rivals will become even more prudent. Our results offer new guidance for bank supervision in an increasingly competitive environment and may help to explain existing, ambiguous findings on the relationship between competition and risk-taking in banking. Furthermore, our results stress the beneficial role that competition can have for financial stability as it turns a bank’s "prudence" into an important competitive advantage.
The authors study the effects of forward looking communication in an environment of rising inflation rates on German consumers‘ inflation expectations using a randomized control trial. They show that information about rising inflation increases short- and long-term inflation expectations. This initial increase in expectations can be mitigated using forward looking information about inflation. Among these information treatments, professional forecasters‘ projections seem to reduce inflation expectations by more than policymakers‘ characterization of inflation as a temporary phenomenon.
I. EINLEITUNG II. VORSCHLAG DER WIRTSCHAFTSRECHTLICHEN ABTEILUNG ZUM 67. DEUTSCHEN JURISTENTAG 1. Darstellung und Begriffsbestimmung 2. Begründung III. BEDEUTUNG DES AUßERBÖRSLICHEN HANDELS IN DEUTSCHLAND IV. RECHTSVERGLEICHENDE BETRACHTUNG VON AKTIEN- UND KAPITALMARKTRECHT 1. Deutschland a) Organisation des Kapitalmarktes b) Differenzierung im Rahmen des Aktienrechts 2. Großbritannien a) Organisation des Kapitalmarktes b) Differenzierungen im „Companies Act 2006“ 3. USA a) Rechtsquellen des Kapitalgesellschafts- und Kapitalmarktrechts b) Organisation des Kapitalmarktes c) Kapitalgesellschaftsrecht V. STELLUNGNAHME 1. Anknüpfung der vorhandenen Regelungen an die Kapitalmarktorientierung 2. Verwischung der Grenzen zwischen Aktien- und Kapitalmarktrecht 3. Missbrauchsgefahr durch selbstbestimmte Wahl der Satzungsstrenge 4. Bisherige Reformansätze im deutschen Schrifttum 5. Die Abkehr von einer Differenzierung im Aktienrecht in der aktuellen Reformdiskussion 6. Ökonomische Analyse des Aktienrechts („Opt-In-Modell“) VI. FAZIT: Der Deregulierungsansatz, der eine Differenzierung zwischen börsen- und nichtbörsennotierten Aktiengesellschaften vorsieht, ist nicht zu befürworten. Vor dem Hintergrund der rechtsvergleichenden Betrachtung der Beispiele Großbritannien und der USA stellt sich vielmehr eine kapitalmarktorientierte Differenzierung der Anlegerschutzbestimmungen des Aktienrechts als vorzugswürdig dar. Die Anknüpfung von Deregulierungsmaßnahmen an das Kriterium der Kapitalmarktorientierung findet sich im Ansatz auch im bereits geltenden deutschen Recht. So enthält sowohl das Aktienrecht als auch das Kapitalmarktrecht entsprechend differenzierende Regelungen. Zudem weisen auch aktuelle nationale Gesetzesvorhaben und die Entwicklungen im europäischen Gesellschaftsrecht Tendenzen zu einer Abgrenzung nach dem Kriterium der Kapitalmarktferne oder -offenheit auf. Auch birgt der enge Anwendungsbereich der zwingenden Anlegerschutznormen des Aktienrechts auf börsennotierte Aktiengesellschaften erhebliche Missbrauchsrisiken. Aktiengesellschaften könnten in den außerbörslichen Handel wechseln, um in den Genuss von Deregulierungen und geringeren Transparenz- und Anlegerschutzanforderungen zu kommen. Letztlich folgt der Vorzug einer kapitalmarktorientierten Differenzierung auch aus der aktuellen Diskussion um Reformansätze zur Steigerung der Wettbewerbsfähigkeit des deutschen Gesellschafts- und Kapitalmarktrechts. Die in diesem Zusammenhang geforderte Aufhebung der Satzungsstrenge bei gleichzeitiger Normierung entsprechender Informations- und Anlegerschutzpflichten im Kapitalmarktrecht würde dazu führen, dass an bestehende Differenzierungen des Kapitalmarktrechts angeknüpft werden könnte.
Climate change has become one of the most prominent concerns globally. In this paper, the authors study the transition risk of greenhouse gas emission reduction in structural environmental-macroeconomic DSGE models. First, they analyze the uncertainty in model prediction on the effect of unanticipated and pre-announced carbon price increases. Second, they conduct optimal model-robust policy in different settings. They find that reducing emissions by 40% causes 0.7% to 4% output loss with 2% on average. Pre-announcement of carbon prices affects the inflation dynamics significantly. The central bank should react slightly less to inflation and output growth during the transition risk. With optimal carbon price designs, it should react even less to inflation, and more to output growth.
Optimal monetary policy studies typically rely on a single structural model and identification of model-specific rules that minimize the unconditional volatilities of inflation and real activity. In their proposed approach, the authors take a large set of structural models and look for the model-robust rules that minimize the volatilities at those frequencies that policymakers are most interested in stabilizing. Compared to the status quo approach, their results suggest that policymakers should be more restrained in their inflation responses when their aim is to stabilize inflation and output growth at specific frequencies. Additional caution is called for due to model uncertainty.