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Global biodiversity is changing rapidly and contemporary climate change is an important driver of this change. As climate change continues, the challenge is to understand how it may affect the future of biodiversity. This is relevant to informing policy and conservation, but it requires reliable future projections of biodiversity. Biodiversity is the variety of life on Earth which includes the diversity of species. The species on Earth are linked in diverse networks of biotic interactions. Interacting species can respond differently to climate change. This can cause spatial or temporal mismatches between interacting species and result in secondary extinctions of species that lose obligate interaction partners. Yet, accounting for biotic interactions in biodiversity projections remains challenging. One way to address this challenge is the use of trait-based approaches because the impact of climate change on interacting species is influenced by species’ functional traits, i.e., measurable characteristics of the species that influence their abiotic and biotic interactions. First, species’ functional traits influence how species respond to climate change. Second, they influence whether the species find compatible interaction partners in reshuffled species assemblages under climate change. Thus, the overarching aim of this dissertation was to explore how trait-based approaches can increase our understanding of how climate change might affect interacting species. For this, I focussed on interactions between fleshy-fruited plants and avian frugivores along a tropical elevational gradient.
I investigated three principal research questions. First, I investigated how traits related to the sensitivity of avian frugivores to climate change and their adaptive capacity vary along elevation and covary across species. I combined estimates of species’ climatic niche breadth (approximating species’ sensitivity) with traits influencing species’ dispersal ability, dietary niche breadth and habitat niche breadth (aspects of species’ adaptive capacity). Species’ climatic niche breadth increased with increasing elevation, while their dispersal ability and dietary niche breadth decreased with increasing elevation. Across species, there was no significant relationship of the sensitivity of the avian frugivores to climate change and their adaptive capacity. The opposing patterns of species’ sensitivity to climate change and their adaptive capacity along elevation imply that species from assemblages at different elevations may respond differently to climate change. The independence between species’ sensitivity and adaptive capacity suggests that it is important to account for both sensitivity and adaptive capacity to fully understand how climate change might affect biodiversity.
Second, I assessed how climate change might influence the co-occurrence of interaction partners with compatible traits, i.e., the functional correspondence of interacting species. I integrated future projections of species’ elevational ranges considering different vertical dispersal scenarios with analyses of the functional diversity of interacting species assemblages. The functional correspondence of fleshy-fruited plants and avian frugivores was lowest if plant and bird species were projected to contract their ranges towards higher elevations in response to increasing temperatures. Contrastingly, if species were projected to expand their ranges upslope, the functional correspondence remained close. The low functional correspondence under a scenario of range contraction indicates that plant species with specific traits might miss compatible interaction partners in future assemblages. This could negatively affect their seed dispersal ability. These results suggest that ensuring the integrity of biotic interactions under climate change requires that species can shift their ranges upslope unlimitedly.
Third, I examined whether avian seed dispersal is sufficient for plants to track future temperature change along the elevational gradient. With a trait-based modelling approach, I simulated seed-dispersal distances avian frugivores can provide to fleshy-fruited woody plant species and quantified the number of long-distance dispersal events the plant species would require to fully track projected temperature shifts along elevation. Most plant species were projected to require several long-distance dispersal events to fully track the projected temperature shifts in time. However, the number of required long-distance dispersal events varied with the degree of trait matching and plant species’ traits. These findings suggest that avian seed dispersal is insufficient for plants to track future temperature change along the elevational gradient as woody plant species might not be able to undergo several consecutive long-distance dispersal events within a short time window, due to their long maturation times. These results also imply that the ability of bird-dispersed plant species to track climate change is associated with the specialization of the seed dispersal system and with plant species’ traits.
Trait-based approaches are promising tools to study impacts of climate change on interacting species. The trait-based approaches that I have developed in this thesis are applicable more widely, e.g., to other types of biotic interactions, or to assess the effects of other drivers of global change. Moreover, these approaches may be further developed to model changes in biotic interactions under global change more dynamically. Taken together, I have shown how a trait-based perspective could help to account for biotic interactions in biodiversity projections. The development of such approaches and the gained knowledge are urgently needed to facilitate the conservation of biodiversity in a rapidly changing world.
Background: Aedes albopictus and Ae. japonicus are two of the most widespread invasive mosquito species that have recently become established in western Europe. Both species are associated with the transmission of a number of serious diseases and are projected to continue their spread in Europe.
Methods: In the present study, we modelled the habitat suitability for both species under current and future climatic conditions by means of an Ensemble forecasting approach. We additionally compared the modelled MAXENT niches of Ae. albopictus and Ae. japonicus regarding temperature and precipitation requirements.
Results: Both species were modelled to find suitable habitat conditions in distinct areas within Europe: Ae. albopictus within the Mediterranean regions in southern Europe, Ae. japonicus within the more temperate regions of central Europe. Only in few regions, suitable habitat conditions were projected to overlap for both species. Whereas Ae. albopictus is projected to be generally promoted by climate change in Europe, the area modelled to be climatically suitable for Ae. japonicus is projected to decrease under climate change. This projection of range reduction under climate change relies on the assumption that Ae. japonicus is not able to adapt to warmer climatic conditions. The modelled MAXENT temperature niches of Ae. japonicus were found to be narrower with an optimum at lower temperatures compared to the niches of Ae. albopictus.
Conclusions: Species distribution models identifying areas with high habitat suitability can help improving monitoring programmes for invasive species currently in place. However, as mosquito species are known to be able to adapt to new environmental conditions within the invasion range quickly, niche evolution of invasive mosquito species should be closely followed upon in future studies.
Background: In the face of ongoing climate warming, vector-borne diseases are expected to increase in Europe, including tick-borne diseases (TBD). The most abundant tick-borne diseases in Germany are Tick-Borne Encephalitis (TBE) and Lyme Borreliosis (LB), with Ixodes ricinus as the main vector.
Methods: In this study, we display and compare the spatial and temporal patterns of reported cases of human TBE and LB in relation to some associated factors. The comparison may help with the interpretation of observed spatial and temporal patterns.
Results: The spatial patterns of reported TBE cases show a clear and consistent pattern over the years, with many cases in the south and only few and isolated cases in the north of Germany. The identification of spatial patterns of LB disease cases is more difficult due to the different reporting practices in the individual federal states. Temporal patterns strongly fluctuate between years, and are relatively synchronized between both diseases, suggesting common driving factors. Based on our results we found no evidence that weather conditions affect the prevalence of both diseases. Both diseases show a gender bias with LB bing more commonly diagnosed in females, contrary to TBE being more commonly diagnosed in males.
Conclusion: For a further investigation of of the underlying driving factors and their interrelations, longer time series as well as standardised reporting and surveillance system would be required.