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wo assumptions underlie current models of the geographical ranges of perennial plant species: 1. current ranges are in equilibrium with the prevailing climate, and 2. changes are attributable to changes in macroclimatic factors, including tolerance of winter cold, the duration of the growing season, and water stress during the growing season, rather than to biotic interactions. These assumptions allow model parameters to be estimated from current species ranges. Deterioration of growing conditions due to climate change, e.g. more severe drought, will cause local extinction. However, for many plant species, the predicted climate change of higher minimum temperatures and longer growing seasons means, improved growing conditions. Biogeographical models may under some circumstances predict that a species will become locally extinct, despite improved growing conditions, because they are based on an assumption of equilibrium and this forces the species range to match the species-specific macroclimatic thresholds. We argue that such model predictions should be rejected unless there is evidence either that competition influences the position of the range margins or that a certain physiological mechanism associated with the apparent improvement in growing conditions negatively affects the species performance. We illustrate how a process-based vegetation model can be used to ascertain whether such a physiological cause exists. To avoid potential modelling errors of this type, we propose a method that constrains the scenario predictions of the envelope models by changing the geographical distribution of the dominant plant functional type. Consistent modelling results are very important for evaluating how changes in species areas affect local functional trait diversity and hence ecosystem functioning and resilience, and for inferring the implications for conservation management in the face of climate change.
Effects of seasonal or daily temperature variation on fitness and physiology of ectothermic organisms and their ways to cope with such variations have been widely studied. However, the way multivoltines organisms cope with temperature variations from one generation to the next is still not well understood. The aim of this study was to investigate whether the multivoltine midge Chironomus riparius Meigen (1803) responds mainly via acclimation as predicted by current theories or whether rapid genetic adaptation is involved. To investigate this issue, a common garden approach has been applied. A mix of larvae from five European populations was raised in the laboratory at three different pre‐exposure temperatures (PET): 14, 20, and 26°C. After three and five generations, respectively, larvae were exposed to three treatment temperatures (TT): 14, 20, and 26°C. Mortality was monitored for the first 48 hr and after emergence. After three generations, significant mortality rate differences depended on an interaction of PET and TT. This finding supports the hypothesis that chironomids respond rapidly to climatic variation via adaptive mechanisms and to a lesser extent via phenotypic plasticity. The result of the experiment indicates that three generations were sufficient to adapt to warm temperature, decreasing the mortality rate, highlighting the potential for chironomids to rapidly respond to seasonally changing conditions.