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Waldwachstumsmodelle sind ein ideales Werkzeug, um Auswirkungen veränderter Umweltbedingungen auf das Wachstum der Bäume aufzuzeigen. Ziel des Teilprojektes „Waldwachstumsreaktionen und Systemprozesse“ im Rahmen von ENFORCHANGE war, durch die Kombination von Wachstumsmodellen mit unterschiedlichen methodischen Ansätzen regionale Auswirkungen standörtlicher und klimatischer Veränderungen auf die Waldentwicklung zu analysieren und somit bessere Grundlagen für eine angepasste Forstbetriebsplanung zu schaffen. Anhand des physiologischen Wachstumsmodells BALANCE wurde der Einfluss der prognostizierten Klimaänderungen auf das Wachstum der Bäume abgeschätzt. Die für verschiedene Baumarten und regionaltypische Bestände gewonnenen Reaktionsmuster konnten anschließend in das managementorientierte Wachstumsmodell SILVA übertragen werden. Die Entwicklung repräsentativer Waldbestände wurde in SILVA für einen Zeitraum von 30 Jahren simuliert, wobei verschiedene Nutzungsszenarien untersucht wurden, um Handlungsspielräume und mögliche strategische Planungen für Forstbetriebe aufzuzeigen. Die gewonnenen Erkenntnisse für die praktische Betriebsplanung wurden am Beispiel des kommunalen Forstbetriebes Zittau dargestellt. Es wird deutlich, wie die Forstplanung von derartigen Szenarioanalysen profitieren kann. Die Simulationsrechnungen unter Annahme geänderter Klimaverhältnisse zeigen, dass die Bestände unter diesen Bedingungen ein verringertes Reaktionsvermögen auf waldbauliche Maßnahmen aufweisen, was insbesondere bei den Zuwächsen bemerkbar ist. Dabei haben Laubholzbestände, die bereits jetzt auf 27% der Betriebsfläche stocken, vermutlich eine Pufferwirkung und mildern die Auswirkungen der Klimaänderungen auf die Produktivität des Gesamtbetriebes ab.
This article is about creative writing in GFL-Lecture in Egypt. Writing as a skill is rarely considered in GFL- Lecture. Teachers pay attention to other skills such as reading, listening, or speaking, whereby writing is only considered receptively to promote speaking or grammar. This article is about trying to promote creative writing in GFL-Lecture and to offer new suggestions and tips. In a further step, this article deals with the presentation of some creative writing tasks that were carried out among the students of the third year at the language faculty (Al-Alsun) in Sohag. Finally, the conclusions are drawn, and results of creative writing shown.
An optimized Bayesian hierarchical two-parameter logistic model for small-sample item calibration
(2019)
Accurate item calibration in models of item response theory (IRT) requires rather large samples. For instance, N > 500 respondents are typically recommended for the two-parameter logistic (2PL) model. Hence, this model is considered a large-scale application, and its use in small-sample contexts is limited. Hierarchical Bayesian approaches are frequently proposed to reduce the sample size requirements of the 2PL. This study compared the small-sample performance of an optimized Bayesian hierarchical 2PL (H2PL) model to its standard inverse Wishart specification, its nonhierarchical counterpart, and both unweighted and weighted least squares estimators (ULSMV and WLSMV) in terms of sampling efficiency and accuracy of estimation of the item parameters and their variance components. To alleviate shortcomings of hierarchical models, the optimized H2PL (a) was reparametrized to simplify the sampling process, (b) a strategy was used to separate item parameter covariances and their variance components, and (c) the variance components were given Cauchy and exponential hyperprior distributions. Results show that when combining these elements in the optimized H2PL, accurate item parameter estimates and trait scores are obtained even in sample sizes as small as N = 100. This indicates that the 2PL can also be applied to smaller sample sizes encountered in practice. The results of this study are discussed in the context of a recently proposed multiple imputation method to account for item calibration error in trait estimation.
The RFQ direct injection project (RFQ-DIP) for the neutrino physics experiment IsoDAR aims at an efficient injection of a high-current H²⁺ beam into the dedicated 60 MeV driver cyclotron. Therefore, it is intended to use a compact 32.8 MHz RFQ structure of the split-coaxial type as a pre-buncher. To determine the thermal elongation of the 1.4 m long electrode rods as well as the thermal frequency detuning of the RF structure at a maximum nominal power load of 3.6 kW, an extensive thermal and structural mechanical analysis using COMSOL Multiphysics was conducted. The water heating along the cooling channels as well as the properties of heat transfer from the copper structure to the cooling water were taken into account, which required CFD simulations of the cooling water flow in the turbulent regime. Here we present the methods and results of the sophisticated thermal and structural mechanical simulations using COMSOL and provide a comparison to more simplistic simulations conducted with CST Studio Suite.
Programele computerizate au un rol indiscutabil în atingerea unor standarde ridicate în procesul educațional. Pe de altă parte acestea sunt instrumente eficiente în identificarea particularităților cazurilor clinice, evaluarea acestora în conformitate cu indicii clinico-biologici specifici. În timpul procesului didactic, simularea are un rol esenţial, ca o prefaţă la procedurile practice care formează abilităţile practice pe fiecare entitate clinică în medicina dentară.
Background: The objective of the STREAM Trial was to evaluate the effect of simulation training on process times in acute stroke care.
Methods: The multicenter prospective interventional STREAM Trial was conducted between 10/2017 and 04/2019 at seven tertiary care neurocenters in Germany with a pre- and post-interventional observation phase. We recorded patient characteristics, acute stroke care process times, stroke team composition and simulation experience for consecutive direct-to-center patients receiving intravenous thrombolysis (IVT) and/or endovascular therapy (EVT). The intervention consisted of a composite intervention centered around stroke-specific in situ simulation training. Primary outcome measure was the ‘door-to-needle’ time (DTN) for IVT. Secondary outcome measures included process times of EVT and measures taken to streamline the pre-existing treatment algorithm.
Results: The effect of the STREAM intervention on the process times of all acute stroke operations was neutral. However, secondary analyses showed a DTN reduction of 5 min from 38 min pre-intervention (interquartile range [IQR] 25–43 min) to 33 min (IQR 23–39 min, p = 0.03) post-intervention achieved by simulation-experienced stroke teams. Concerning EVT, we found significantly shorter door-to-groin times in patients who were treated by teams with simulation experience as compared to simulation-naive teams in the post-interventional phase (−21 min, simulation-naive: 95 min, IQR 69–111 vs. simulation-experienced: 74 min, IQR 51–92, p = 0.04).
Conclusion: An intervention combining workflow refinement and simulation-based stroke team training has the potential to improve process times in acute stroke care.
Previous studies in patients with single-sided deafness (SSD) have reported results of pitch comparisons between electric stimulation of their cochlear implant (CI) and acoustic stimulation presented to their near-normal hearing contralateral ear. These comparisons typically used sinusoids, although the percept elicited by electric stimulation may be closer to a wideband stimulus. Furthermore, it has been shown that pitch comparisons between sounds with different timbres is a difficult task and subjected to various types of range biases. The present study aims to introduce a method to minimize non-sensory biases, and to investigate the effect of different acoustic stimulus types on the frequency and variability of the electric-acoustic pitch matches. Pitch matches were collected from 13 CI users with SSD using the binary search procedure. Electric stimulation was presented at either an apical or a middle electrode position, at a rate of 800 pps. Acoustic stimulus types were sinusoids (SINE), 1/3-octave wide narrow bands of Gaussian noises (NBN), or 1/3-octave wide pulse spreading harmonic complexes (PSHC). On the one hand, NBN and PSHC are presumed to better mimic the spread of excitation produced by a single-electrode stimulation than SINE. On the other hand, SINE and PSHC contain less inherent fluctuations than NBN and may therefore provide a temporal pattern closer to that produced by a constant-amplitude electric pulse train. Analysis of mean pitch match variance showed no differences between stimulus types. However, mean pitch matches showed effects of electrode position and stimulus type, with the middle electrode always matched to a higher frequency than the apical one (p < 0.001), and significantly higher across-subject pitch matches for PSHC compared with SINE (p = 0.017). Mean pitch matches for all stimulus types were better predicted by place-dependent characteristic frequencies (CFs) based on an organ of Corti map compared with a spiral ganglion map. CF predictions were closest to pitch matches with SINE for the apical electrode position, and conversely with NBN or PSHC for the middle electrode position. These results provide evidence that the choice of acoustic stimulus type can have a significant effect on electric-acoustic pitch matching.