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We study the redistributive effects of inflation combining administrative bank data with an information provision experiment during an episode of historic inflation. On average, households are well-informed about prevailing inflation and are concerned about its impact on their wealth; yet, while many households know about inflation eroding nominal assets, most are unaware of nominal-debt erosion. Once they receive information on the debt-erosion channel, households update upwards their beliefs about nominal debt and their own real net wealth. These changes in beliefs causally affect actual consumption and hypothetical debt decisions. Our findings suggest that real wealth mediates the sensitivity of consumption to inflation once households are aware of the wealth effects of inflation.
Does political conflict with another country influence domestic consumers' daily consumption choices? We exploit the volatile US-China relations in 2018 and 2019 to analyze whether US consumers reduce their visits to Chinese restaurants when bilateral relations deteriorate. We measure the degree of political conflict through negativity in media reports and rely on smartphone location data to measure daily visits to over 190,000 US restaurants. A deterioration in US-China relations induces a significant decline in visits not only to Chinese but also to other foreign ethnic restaurants, while visits to typical American restaurants increase. We identify consumers' age, race, and cultural openness to moderate the strength of this ethnocentric effect.
O presente artigo tem por objetivo tecer uma reflexão crítica acerca da "paixão" enunciada pela campanha de marketing da empresa de combustíveis Ipiranga, a partir das contribuições teóricas formuladas por Adorno e Horkheimer, teóricos da Escola de Frankfurt, no que concerne ao conceito de Indústria Cultural. Salientamos, desde já, que este ensaio não visa a estudar epistemologicamente a referida Escola, mas sim a apontar a atualidade do conceito de "indústria cultural". Em vista da atual crença na felicidade a partir do consumo idealizado de mercadorias, disseminados pela publicidade, o presente trabalho tem por objetivo tecer uma reflexão crítica acerca da Indústria Cultural contemporânea e suas implicações psicossociais na atual constituição das subjetividades, a partir da Teoria Crítica. Tomamos como exemplar da referida Indústria o slogan publicitário: "Apaixonados por carro como todo brasileiro", que divulga como "cultura de massa" esta "paixão". Metodologicamente procedemos a uma revisão de conceitos da Escola de Frankfurt vinculados à racionalidade técnico-instrumental moderna, apontando a atualidade do conceito de "indústria cultural" e diferenciando-o de uma cultura originária das massas. A pesquisa empírica, cuja estratégia metodológica consistiu em recolhermos depoimentos de internautas em 12 sites relacionados à temática do slogan, visou investigar as atuais formas de adesão/resistência ao referido slogan. Em nossa leitura teórico-crítica dos depoimentos, apesar das formas de adesão fascinadas serem majoritárias, também detectamos formas de resistência; o que nos aponta que esta "paixão", como muitas outras proclamadas pela indústria cultural, não emerge espontaneamente dos brasileiros, mas que, em verdade, foi construída para os brasileiros – forma atualizada do fetichismo da mercadoria.
We present empirical evidence on the heterogeneity in monetary policy transmission across countries with different home ownership rates. We use household-level data together with shocks to the policy rate identified from high-frequency data. We find that housing tenure reacts more strongly to unexpected changes in the policy rate in Germany and Switzerland –the OECD countries with the lowest home ownership rates– compared with existing evidence for the U.S. An unexpected decrease in the policy rate by 25 basis points increases the home ownership rate by 0.8 percentage points in Germany and by 0.6 percentage points in Switzerland. The response of non-housing consumption in Switzerland is less heterogeneous across renters and mortgagors, and has a different pattern across age groups than in the U.S. We discuss economic explanations for these findings and implications for monetary policy.
In 2000 Italy replaced its traditional system of severance pay for public employees with a new system. Under the old regime, severance pay was proportional to the final salary before retirement; under the new regime it is proportional to lifetime earnings. This reform entails substantial losses for future generations of public employees, in the range of €20,000-30,000, depending on seniority. Using a difference-in-difference framework, we estimate the impact of this unanticipated change in lifetime resources, on the current consumption and wealth accumulation of employees affected by the reform. In line with theoretical simulations, we find that each euro reduction in severance pay reduces the average propensity to consume by 3 cents and increases the wealth-income ratio by 0.32. The response is stronger for younger workers and for households where both spouses are public sector employees.
We use the Italian Survey of Household Income and Wealth, a rather unique dataset with a long time dimension of panel information on consumption, income and wealth, to structurally estimate a buffer-stock saving model. We exploit the information contained in the joint dynamics of income, consumption and wealth to quantify the degree of insurance against income risk. The estimated model implies that Italian households can insure between 89 and 95 percent of a transitory and between 7 and 9 percent of a permanent income shock. Compared to existing empirical estimates for the same dataset, our findings suggest that Italian households do not have access to significant insurance beyond self-insurance.
We use data from the 2009 Internet Survey of the Health and Retirement Study to examine the consumption impact of wealth shocks and unemployment during the Great Recession in the US. We find that many households experienced large capital losses in housing and in their financial portfolios, and that a non-trivial fraction of respondents have lost their job. As a consequence of these shocks, many households reduced substantially their expenditures. We estimate that the marginal propensities to consume with respect to housing and financial wealth are 1 and 3.3 percentage points, respectively. In addition, those who became unemployed reduced spending by 10 percent. We also distinguish the effect of perceived transitory and permanent wealth shocks, splitting the sample between households who think that the stock market is likely to recover in a year’s time, and those who do not. In line with the predictions of standard models of intertemporal choice, we find that the latter group adjusted much more than the former its spending in response to financial wealth shocks.
We argue that the U.S. personal saving rate’s long stability (1960s–1980s), subsequent steady decline (1980s–2007), and recent substantial rise (2008–2011) can be interpreted using a parsimonious ‘buffer stock’ model of consumption in the presence of labor income uncertainty and credit constraints. Saving in the model is affected by the gap between ‘target’ and actual wealth, with the target determined by credit conditions and uncertainty. An estimated structural version of the model suggests that increased credit availability accounts for most of the long-term saving decline, while fluctuations in wealth and uncertainty capture the bulk of the business-cycle variation.
The budget constraint requires that, eventually, consumption must adjust fully to any permanent shock to income. Intuition suggests that, knowing this, optimizing agents will fully adjust their spending immediately upon experiencing a permanent shock. However, this paper shows that if consumers are impatient and are subject to transitory as well as permanent shocks, the optimal marginal propensity to consume out of permanent shocks (the MPCP) is strictly less than 1, because buffer stock savers have a target wealth-to-permanent-income ratio; a positive shock to permanent income moves the ratio below its target, temporarily boosting saving. Keywords: Risk, Uncertainty, Consumption, Precautionary Saving, Buffer Stock Saving, Permanent Income Hypothesis.
Consuming dividends
(2020)
This paper studies why investors buy dividend-paying assets and how they time their consumption accordingly. We combine administrative bank data linking customers’ consumption transactions and income to detailed portfolio data and survey responses on financial behavior. We find that private consumption is excessively sensitive to dividend income. Investors across wealth, income, and age distributions increase spending precisely around days of dividend receipt. Importantly, the consumption response is driven by financially prudent investors who select dividend portfolios, anticipate dividend income, and plan consumption accordingly. Our results contribute to the literature on a dividend clientele and provide evidence of ‘planned’ excess sensitivity.