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Scores to identify patients at high risk of progression of coronavirus disease (COVID-19), caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), may become instrumental for clinical decision-making and patient management. We used patient data from the multicentre Lean European Open Survey on SARS-CoV-2-Infected Patients (LEOSS) and applied variable selection to develop a simplified scoring system to identify patients at increased risk of critical illness or death. A total of 1946 patients who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 were included in the initial analysis and assigned to derivation and validation cohorts (n = 1297 and n = 649, respectively). Stability selection from over 100 baseline predictors for the combined endpoint of progression to the critical phase or COVID-19-related death enabled the development of a simplified score consisting of five predictors: C-reactive protein (CRP), age, clinical disease phase (uncomplicated vs. complicated), serum urea, and D-dimer (abbreviated as CAPS-D score). This score yielded an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.81 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.77–0.85) in the validation cohort for predicting the combined endpoint within 7 days of diagnosis and 0.81 (95% CI: 0.77–0.85) during full follow-up. We used an additional prospective cohort of 682 patients, diagnosed largely after the “first wave” of the pandemic to validate the predictive accuracy of the score and observed similar results (AUC for the event within 7 days: 0.83 [95% CI: 0.78–0.87]; for full follow-up: 0.82 [95% CI: 0.78–0.86]). An easily applicable score to calculate the risk of COVID-19 progression to critical illness or death was thus established and validated.
Bayesian inference is ubiquitous in science and widely used in biomedical research such as cell sorting or “omics” approaches, as well as in machine learning (ML), artificial neural networks, and “big data” applications. However, the calculation is not robust in regions of low evidence. In cases where one group has a lower mean but a higher variance than another group, new cases with larger values are implausibly assigned to the group with typically smaller values. An approach for a robust extension of Bayesian inference is proposed that proceeds in two main steps starting from the Bayesian posterior probabilities. First, cases with low evidence are labeled as “uncertain” class membership. The boundary for low probabilities of class assignment (threshold 𝜀
) is calculated using a computed ABC analysis as a data-based technique for item categorization. This leaves a number of cases with uncertain classification (p < 𝜀
). Second, cases with uncertain class membership are relabeled based on the distance to neighboring classified cases based on Voronoi cells. The approach is demonstrated on biomedical data typically analyzed with Bayesian statistics, such as flow cytometric data sets or biomarkers used in medical diagnostics, where it increased the class assignment accuracy by 1–10% depending on the data set. The proposed extension of the Bayesian inference of class membership can be used to obtain robust and plausible class assignments even for data at the extremes of the distribution and/or for which evidence is weak.
Phenotypical screening is a widely used approach in drug discovery for the identification of small molecules with cellular activities. However, functional annotation of identified hits often poses a challenge. The development of small molecules with narrow or exclusive target selectivity such as chemical probes and chemogenomic (CG) libraries, greatly diminishes this challenge, but non-specific effects caused by compound toxicity or interference with basic cellular functions still pose a problem to associate phenotypic readouts with molecular targets. Hence, each compound should ideally be comprehensively characterized regarding its effects on general cell functions. Here, we report an optimized live-cell multiplexed assay that classifies cells based on nuclear morphology, presenting an excellent indicator for cellular responses such as early apoptosis and necrosis. This basic readout in combination with the detection of other general cell damaging activities of small molecules such as changes in cytoskeletal morphology, cell cycle and mitochondrial health provides a comprehensive time-dependent characterization of the effect of small molecules on cellular health in a single experiment. The developed high-content assay offers multi-dimensional comprehensive characterization that can be used to delineate generic effects regarding cell functions and cell viability, allowing an assessment of compound suitability for subsequent detailed phenotypic and mechanistic studies.
The state-of-the-art pattern recognition method in machine learning (deep convolution neural network) is used to identify the equation of state (EoS) employed in the relativistic hydrodynamic simulations of heavy ion collisions. High-level correlations of particle spectra in transverse momentum and azimuthal angle learned by the network act as an effective EoS-meter in deciphering the nature of the phase transition in QCD. The EoS-meter is model independent and insensitive to other simulation inputs including the initial conditions and shear viscosity for hydrodynamic simulations. Through this study we demonstrate that there is a traceable encoder of the dynamical information from the phase structure that survives the evolution and exists in the final snapshot of heavy ion collisions and one can exclusively and effectively decode these information from the highly complex final output with machine learning when traditional methods fail. Besides the deep neural network, the performance of traditional machine learning classifiers are also provided.
Advanced machine learning has achieved extraordinary success in recent years. “Active” operational risk beyond ex post analysis of measured-data machine learning could provide help beyond the regime of traditional statistical analysis when it comes to the “known unknown” or even the “unknown unknown.” While machine learning has been tested successfully in the regime of the “known,” heuristics typically provide better results for an active operational risk management (in the sense of forecasting). However, precursors in existing data can open a chance for machine learning to provide early warnings even for the regime of the “unknown unknown.”
Bacteria that are capable of organizing themselves as biofilms are an important public health issue. Knowledge discovery focusing on the ability to swarm and conquer the surroundings to form persistent colonies is therefore very important for microbiological research communities that focus on a clinical perspective. Here, we demonstrate how a machine learning workflow can be used to create useful models that are capable of discriminating distinct associated growth behaviors along distinct phenotypes. Based on basic gray-scale images, we provide a processing pipeline for binary image generation, making the workflow accessible for imaging data from a wide range of devices and conditions. The workflow includes a locally estimated regression model that easily applies to growth-related data and a shape analysis using identified principal components. Finally, we apply a density-based clustering application with noise (DBSCAN) to extract and analyze characteristic, general features explained by colony shapes and areas to discriminate distinct Bacillus subtilis phenotypes. Our results suggest that the differences regarding their ability to swarm and subsequently conquer the medium that surrounds them result in characteristic features. The differences along the time scales of the distinct latency for the colony formation give insights into the ability to invade the surroundings and therefore could serve as a useful monitoring tool.
The use of artificial intelligence (AI) systems in biomedical and clinical settings can disrupt the traditional doctor–patient relationship, which is based on trust and transparency in medical advice and therapeutic decisions. When the diagnosis or selection of a therapy is no longer made solely by the physician, but to a significant extent by a machine using algorithms, decisions become nontransparent. Skill learning is the most common application of machine learning algorithms in clinical decision making. These are a class of very general algorithms (artificial neural networks, classifiers, etc.), which are tuned based on examples to optimize the classification of new, unseen cases. It is pointless to ask for an explanation for a decision. A detailed understanding of the mathematical details of an AI algorithm may be possible for experts in statistics or computer science. However, when it comes to the fate of human beings, this “developer’s explanation” is not sufficient. The concept of explainable AI (XAI) as a solution to this problem is attracting increasing scientific and regulatory interest. This review focuses on the requirement that XAIs must be able to explain in detail the decisions made by the AI to the experts in the field.
Genetic association studies have shown their usefulness in assessing the role of ion channels in human thermal pain perception. We used machine learning to construct a complex phenotype from pain thresholds to thermal stimuli and associate it with the genetic information derived from the next-generation sequencing (NGS) of 15 ion channel genes which are involved in thermal perception, including ASIC1, ASIC2, ASIC3, ASIC4, TRPA1, TRPC1, TRPM2, TRPM3, TRPM4, TRPM5, TRPM8, TRPV1, TRPV2, TRPV3, and TRPV4. Phenotypic information was complete in 82 subjects and NGS genotypes were available in 67 subjects. A network of artificial neurons, implemented as emergent self-organizing maps, discovered two clusters characterized by high or low pain thresholds for heat and cold pain. A total of 1071 variants were discovered in the 15 ion channel genes. After feature selection, 80 genetic variants were retained for an association analysis based on machine learning. The measured performance of machine learning-mediated phenotype assignment based on this genetic information resulted in an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 77.2%, justifying a phenotype classification based on the genetic information. A further item categorization finally resulted in 38 genetic variants that contributed most to the phenotype assignment. Most of them (10) belonged to the TRPV3 gene, followed by TRPM3 (6). Therefore, the analysis successfully identified the particular importance of TRPV3 and TRPM3 for an average pain phenotype defined by the sensitivity to moderate thermal stimuli.
Background: The categorization of individuals as normosmic, hyposmic, or anosmic from test results of odor threshold, discrimination, and identification may provide a limited view of the sense of smell. The purpose of this study was to expand the clinical diagnostic repertoire by including additional tests. Methods: A random cohort of n = 135 individuals (83 women and 52 men, aged 21 to 94 years) was tested for odor threshold, discrimination, and identification, plus a distance test, in which the odor of peanut butter is perceived, a sorting task of odor dilutions for phenylethyl alcohol and eugenol, a discrimination test for odorant enantiomers, a lateralization test with eucalyptol, a threshold assessment after 10 min of exposure to phenylethyl alcohol, and a questionnaire on the importance of olfaction. Unsupervised methods were used to detect structure in the olfaction-related data, followed by supervised feature selection methods from statistics and machine learning to identify relevant variables. Results: The structure in the olfaction-related data divided the cohort into two distinct clusters with n = 80 and 55 subjects. Odor threshold, discrimination, and identification did not play a relevant role for cluster assignment, which, on the other hand, depended on performance in the two odor dilution sorting tasks, from which cluster assignment was possible with a median 100-fold cross-validated balanced accuracy of 77–88%. Conclusions: The addition of an odor sorting task with the two proposed odor dilutions to the odor test battery expands the phenotype of olfaction and fits seamlessly into the sensory focus of standard test batteries.
When requesting a web-based service, users often fail in setting the website’s privacy settings according to their self privacy preferences. Being overwhelmed by the choice of preferences, a lack of knowledge of related technologies or unawareness of the own privacy preferences are just some reasons why users tend to struggle. To address all these problems, privacy setting prediction tools are particularly well-suited. Such tools aim to lower the burden to set privacy preferences according to owners’ privacy preferences. To be in line with the increased demand for explainability and interpretability by regulatory obligations – such as the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) in Europe – in this paper an explainable model for default privacy setting prediction is introduced. Compared to the previous work we present an improved feature selection, increased interpretability of each step in model design and enhanced evaluation metrics to better identify weaknesses in the model’s design before it goes into production. As a result, we aim to provide an explainable and transparent tool for default privacy setting prediction which users easily understand and are therefore more likely to use.