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Since the 1970s, exports and imports of manufactured goods have been the engine of international trade and much of that trade relies on container shipping. This paper introduces a new monthly index of the volume of container trade to and from North America. Incorporating this index into a structural macroeconomic VAR model facilitates the identification of shocks to domestic U.S. demand as well as foreign demand for U.S. manufactured goods. We show that, unlike in the Great Recession, the primary determinant of the U.S. economic contraction in early 2020 was a sharp drop in domestic demand. Although detrended data for personal consumption expenditures and manufacturing output suggest that the U.S. economy has recovered to near 90% of pre-pandemic levels as of March 2021, our structural VAR model shows that the component of manufacturing output driven by domestic demand had only recovered to 59% of pre-pandemic levels and that of real personal consumption only to 76%. The difference is mainly accounted for by unexpected reductions in frictions in the container shipping market.
We identify strong cross-border institutions as a driver for the globalization of in-novation. Using 67 million patents from over 100 patent offices, we introduce novel measures of innovation diffusion and collaboration. Exploiting staggered bilateral in-vestment treaties as shocks to cross-border property rights and contract enforcement, we show that signatory countries increase technology adoption and sourcing from each other. They also increase R&D collaborations. These interactions result in techno-logical convergence. The effects are particularly strong for process innovation, and for countries that are technological laggards or have weak domestic institutions. Increased inter-firm rather than intra-firm foreign investment is the key channel.
U.S. retail food price increases in recent years may seem large in nominal terms, but after adjusting for inflation have been quite modest even after the change in U.S. biofuel policies in 2006. In contrast, increases in the real prices of corn, soybeans, wheat and rice received by U.S. farmers have been more substantial and can be linked in part to increases in the real price of oil. That link, however, appears largely driven by common macroeconomic determinants of the prices of oil and agricultural commodities rather than the pass-through from higher oil prices. We show that there is no evidence that corn ethanol mandates have created a tight link between oil and agricultural markets. Rather increases in food commodity prices not associated with changes in global real activity appear to reflect a wide range of idiosyncratic shocks ranging from changes in biofuel policies to poor harvests. Increases in agricultural commodity prices in turn contribute little to U.S. retail food price increases, because of the small cost share of agricultural products in food prices. There is no evidence that oil price shocks have caused more than a negligible increase in retail food prices in recent years. Nor is there evidence for the prevailing wisdom that oil-price driven increases in the cost of food processing, packaging, transportation and distribution are responsible for higher retail food prices. Finally, there is no evidence that oil-market specific events or for that matter U.S. biofuel policies help explain the evolution of the real price of rice, which is perhaps the single most important food commodity for many developing countries.
The long-standing battle between economic nationalism and globalism has again taken center stage in geopolitics. This article applies this dichotomy to the law and policy of international intellectual property (IP). Most commentators see IP as a prime example of globalization. The article challenges this view on several levels. In a nutshell, it claims that economic nationalist concerns about domestic industries and economic development lie at the heart of the global IP system. To support this argument, the article summarizes and categorizes IP policies adopted by selected European countries, the European Union, and the U.S. Section I presents three types of inbound IP policies that aim to foster local economic development and innovation. Section II adds three versions of outbound IP policies that, in contrast, target foreign countries and markets. Concluding section III traces a dialectic virtuous circle of economic nationalist motives leading to global legal structures and identifies the function and legal structure of IP as the reason for the resilience and even dominance of economic nationalist motives in international IP politics. IP concerns exclusive private rights that are territorially limited creatures of (supra-)national statutes. These legal structures make up the economic nationalist DNA of IP.
In my dissertation I study the transmission of monetary and fiscal policy in New Keynesian DSGE models. In the first chapter we revisit the exchange rate channel in a two-country model of the U.S. and a panel of industrialized countries to analyse how monetary policy transmission in the U.S. changes if it becomes more trade integrated. We find that more openness lowers the sacrifice ratio, although the effect is quantitatively small and depends on the pricing of the firms. In the second chapter we simulate the impact of the U.S. fiscal stimulus package in 2009 on GDP. We find that the government spendingmultiplier is well below 1. The finding is robust to including rule-of-thumb consumers and simulating the stimulus in the recent recession. In the third chapter we collect the fiscal stimulus measures in the eleven biggest countries of the euro area. Then we do a robustness study by simulating the european package in five different models of the euro area. The macroeconomic models vary in terms of backward-looking decision making of the agents and openness. Our findings provide no support for a Keynesian multiplier. Instead they suggest that additional government spending will reduce private spending for consumption and investment purposes. If government spending faces an implementation lag, the initial effect on GDP may even be negative. In the fourth chapter I estimate a DSGE model for Germany and compute forecasts for the debt-to-GDP ratio. I find that the expected economic recovery will lead to a decrease in Germany’s indebtedness in the medium-term given that policy makers stick to the fiscal policy rules.
It is theoretically clear and may be verified empirically that efficient financial markets can make it less necessary for policy to try and offset the welfare effects of labour income risk and unequal consumption dynamics. The literature has also pointed out that, since international competition exposes workers to new sources of risk at the same time as it makes it easier for individual choices to undermine collective policies, international economic integration makes insurance-oriented government policies more beneficial as well as more difficult to implement. This paper reviews the economic mechanisms underlying these insights and assesses their empirical relevance in cross-country panel data sets. Interactions between indicators of international economic integration, of government economic involvement, and of financial development are consistent with the idea that financial market development can substitute public schemes when economic integration calls for more effective household consumption smoothing. The paper’s theoretical perspective and empirical evidence suggest that to the extent that governments can foster financial market development by appropriate regulation and supervision, they should do so more urgently at times of intense and increasing internationalization of economic relationships. JEL Classification: G1, E21
Globale Finanzplätze im Vergleich : Frankfurt und Sydney zwischen Global City und lokaler Variation
(2015)
Frankfurt und Sydney sind international bedeutende Knotenpunkte des Global- Cities-Netzwerks. Als transnationale Finanzzentren erreichen sie im Global Financial Centres Index (GFCI) ähnliche Platzierungen. Populäre Rankings wie der GFCI entfalten ihre Wirkungsmacht in einem politischen Diskurs, der die Konkurrenz von Finanzzentren in einem hierarchischen Städtenetzwerk betont und so die Orientierung an den Champions der Finanzmetropolen forciert. Der hier vorgenommene kontrastive Vergleich Frankfurts und Sydneys zeigt hingegen, dass die stark von Globalisierungs- und Finanzialisierungstendenzen beeinflussten Städte sich nicht einfach einem Idealtypus von Global Cities angleichen. Vielmehr sorgt die Einbettung in unterschiedliche Entwicklungslinien – im Falle Frankfurts in die Tradition einer koordinierten Marktwirtschaft, im Falle Sydneys in die Tradition einer liberalen Marktwirtschaft – für die Ausbildung von Finanzsystemen mit unterschiedlichem Charakter und unterschiedlicher Reichweite. So weist der Finanzplatz Frankfurt im Vergleich mit Sydney eine starke globale Vernetzung auf, wenngleich die Merkmale der koordinierten Marktwirtschaft - geringere Börsenkapitalisierung der Unternehmen, einer primär kreditbasierten Unternehmensfinanzierung und geringere Finanzmarktorientierung der Bevölkerung nachwirken. Demgegenüber profitiert der Finanzstandort Sydney von einer durchwegs finanzialisierten Ökonomie, was sich in der Finanzmarktorientierung von Unternehmen und jener der allgemeinen Bevölkerung ausdrückt, weist aber eine stärkere Binnenorientierung, also die Fokussierung auf den nationalen Markt auf.
Internationalisierung und Transnationalisierung der Rechtswissenschaft – aus deutscher Perspektive
(2013)
"In diesem working paper fasse ich einige Überlegungen zur Internationalisierung und Transnationalisierung der deutschen Rechtswissenschaft zusammen. Dabei skizziere ich die Bedeutung der nationalstaatlichen Tradition und Funktion der Rechtswissenschaft (1., 2.), konzentriere mich anschließend auf die Herausbildung Transnationalen Rechts und die damit verbundene Frage nach einer Transnationalen Rechtswissenschaft (3.). Ich versuche anzudeuten, weswegen eine solche Transnationale Rechtswissenschaft in besonderer Weise auf Transdisziplinarität angewiesen ist (4.) und schließe einige Bemerkungen zu der Frage an, wie die deutsche Rechtswissenschaft sich in einer solchen Transnationalen Rechtswissenschaft verorten könnte (5.).
Die Folgerungen, die sich für das Wissenschaftssystem, also für Forschung und Lehre, aus den mit einer Transnationalen Rechtswissenschaft verbundenen Anforderungen ergeben, sind vielfältig. Es gibt aktuellen Anlass und gute Gründe, über diese intensiver nachzudenken (6.). Am Schluss dieses einführenden, viele wichtige Fragen nur streifenden und kaum mit Nachweisen versehenen Beitrags, der gerade für das Gespräch mit anderen Disziplinen formuliert ist, steht eine knappe, thesenartig formulierte Zusammenfassung (7.)." Thomas Duve
This monograph contributes to research in content and language integrated learning (CLIL). Amidst the absence of any educational standards as well as other research deficits, Chapter II sketches a conceptual framework with a competence model for multilingual CLIL classes in the social sciences. It develops a line of argument for the promotion of global discourse competence for democratic participation within a transnational civil society. The subsequent four chapters, comprising one conceptual, one methodological and two empirical contributions, look at different aspects of the conceptual framework. Chapter III defends the developed competence model and further specifies its idea of thought in proposing the construction of multilingual 'cosmopolitan classroom glocalities' for the genesis of 21st century skills. The example of #climonomics, a multilingual EU parliamentary debate about climate change, illustrates its practical realization within school education and exemplifies the contribution to education for sustainable development (ESD) and the value of democratic and participatory learning arrangements. Chapter IV introduces design-based action research (DBAR), the method used in Chapters V & VI. DBAR is a hybrid of action and design-based research and is thereby ideally suited for bridging the gap of theory and practice in educational research. Chapter IV argues for closer cooperation between academics and practitioners, along with pragmatic stakeholder participation by involving students and teachers into research, in a quest for inductively making practical knowledge scientific. Chapter V, more language-biased, draws on the notion of translanguaging and presents the concept of 'trans-foreign-languaging' as a multilingual approach to CLIL with first language (L1) use. During six weeks DBAR, a comprehensive CLIL teaching model with judicious and principled L1 use was designed together with the study group. The model offers affordance-based and differentiated methods for different learner types. Its genesis is reconstructed by a thick description of the natural classroom dynamics. Chapter VI, rather subjectbased, asks about the influence of such bilingual language use on emotions, in particular on the formation of political judgments. It suggests different ways to measure emotions during various natural classroom settings. The chapter concludes that CLIL with L1 use has the potential to engender a perfect equilibrium of emotional and rational learning, integrating emotions into learning and valuing its positive contribution towards appropriate and multilayered political judgments. The concluding Chapter VII binds the previous chapters together and discusses the results. Criteria for the generalization of the results are assessed, and limits demarcated. It highlights the contribution to CLIL research and looks into the future, suggesting further direct classroom interventions, also with the goal to prepare the research field for larger undertakings.
This article argues that proliferation of prefixes like ‘neo’ and ‘post’ that adorn conventional ‘isms’ have cast a long shadow on the contemporary relevance of traditional political ideologies. Suggesting that there is, indeed, something new about today’s political belief systems, the essay draws on the concept of ‘social imaginaries’ to make sense of the changing nature of the contemporary ideological landscape. The core thesis presented here is that today’s ideologies are increasingly translating the rising global imaginary into competing political programs and agendas. But these subjective dynamics of denationalization at the heart of globalization have not yet dispensed with the declining national imaginary. The twenty-first century promises to be an ideational interregnum in which both the global and national stimulate people’s deep-seated understandings of community. Suggesting a new classification scheme dividing contemporary political ideologies into ‘market globalism’, ‘justice globalism’, and ‘jihadist globalism’, the article ends with a brief assessment of the main ideological features of justice globalism.