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Previous investigation of seismic anisotropy indicates the presence of a simple mantle flow regime beneath the Turkish-Anatolian Plateau and Arabian Plate. Numerical modeling suggests that this simple flow is a component of a large-scale global mantle flow associated with the African superplume, which plays a key role in the geodynamic framework of the Arabia-Eurasia continental collision zone. However, the extent and impact of the flow pattern farther east beneath the Iranian Plateau and Zagros remains unclear. While the relatively smoothly varying lithospheric thickness beneath the Anatolian Plateau and Arabian Plate allows progress of the simple mantle flow, the variable lithospheric thickness across the Iranian Plateau is expected to impose additional boundary conditions on the mantle flow field. In this study, for the first time, we use an unprecedented data set of seismic waveforms from a network of 245 seismic stations to examine the mantle flow pattern and lithospheric deformation over the entire region of the Iranian Plateau and Zagros by investigation of seismic anisotropy. We also examine the correlation between the pattern of seismic anisotropy, plate motion using GPS velocities and surface strain fields. Our study reveals a complex pattern of seismic anisotropy that implies a similarly complex mantle flow field. The pattern of seismic anisotropy suggests that the regional simple mantle flow beneath the Arabian Platform and eastern Turkey deflects as a circular flow around the thick Zagros lithosphere. This circular flow merges into a toroidal component beneath the NW Zagros that is likely an indicator of a lateral discontinuity in the lithosphere. Our examination also suggests that the main lithospheric deformation in the Zagros occurs as an axial shortening across the belt, whereas in the eastern Alborz and Kopeh-Dagh a belt-parallel horizontal lithospheric deformation plays a major role.
The rapid spread of the Coronavirus (COVID-19) confronts policy makers with the problem of measuring the effectiveness of containment strategies, balancing public health considerations with the economic costs of social distancing measures. We introduce a modified epidemic model that we name the controlled-SIR model, in which the disease reproduction rate evolves dynamically in response to political and societal reactions. An analytic solution is presented. The model reproduces official COVID-19 cases counts of a large number of regions and countries that surpassed the first peak of the outbreak. A single unbiased feedback parameter is extracted from field data and used to formulate an index that measures the efficiency of containment strategies (the CEI index). CEI values for a range of countries are given. For two variants of the controlled-SIR model, detailed estimates of the total medical and socio-economic costs are evaluated over the entire course of the epidemic. Costs comprise medical care cost, the economic cost of social distancing, as well as the economic value of lives saved. Under plausible parameters, strict measures fare better than a hands-off policy. Strategies based on current case numbers lead to substantially higher total costs than strategies based on the overall history of the epidemic.