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Verbraucher
(2018)
Das Wort 'Verbraucher' hat einen vertrauten Klang und erfreut sich besonders in Form verschiedener Komposita wie 'Verbraucherschutz' oder 'Verbraucherpolitik' großer Wertschätzung. Abgeleitet ist es vom Verb 'verbrauchen'. Es scheint damit verwurzelt in einem anthropologischen Grundtatbestand, denn der Mensch ist nun einmal, als gesellschaftliches Naturwesen, auf den Verbrauch bestimmter Dinge angewiesen. Allerdings ist bereits das Verb 'verbrauchen' keineswegs so selbstverständlich, wie es zunächst scheint. Wer vom Verbrauchen redet, abstrahiert nämlich schon von den konkreten Formen und Zwecken der Aneignung der Dinge und stellt allein den Aspekt des Verlusts oder Endes ihrer Brauchbarkeit heraus. [...] Auch der Blick auf den Komplementärausdruck des Gebrauchens zeigt, dass es sich beim Verb 'verbrauchen' um eine Schwundform handelt. Eine weitere Reduktion wird vollzogen, wenn aus ihm das Substantiv 'Verbraucher' abgeleitet wird. Anhand der gängigen Unterscheidung von Gebrauchs- und Verbrauchsgütern lässt sich das verdeutlichen. Im Vergleich zu den Gebrauchsgütern ist der Anteil der Verbrauchsgüter, also der Dinge, die zum unmittelbaren Verzehr zur Erhaltung der Existenz bestimmt sind, sehr gering. Wenn nun der Mensch als Verbraucher angesprochen wird, dann wird gerade diese elementare Erhaltungsfunktion totalisiert und zur Wesensbestimmung aufgebläht. Was umgekehrt heißt: Im 'Verbraucher' ist der Mensch als kulturelles Wesen ausgelöscht. Wie ist es dazu gekommen?
This paper investigates the accuracy and heterogeneity of output growth and inflation forecasts during the current and the four preceding NBER-dated U.S. recessions. We generate forecasts from six different models of the U.S. economy and compare them to professional forecasts from the Federal Reserve’s Greenbook and the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). The model parameters and model forecasts are derived from historical data vintages so as to ensure comparability to historical forecasts by professionals. The mean model forecast comes surprisingly close to the mean SPF and Greenbook forecasts in terms of accuracy even though the models only make use of a small number of data series. Model forecasts compare particularly well to professional forecasts at a horizon of three to four quarters and during recoveries. The extent of forecast heterogeneity is similar for model and professional forecasts but varies substantially over time. Thus, forecast heterogeneity constitutes a potentially important source of economic fluctuations. While the particular reasons for diversity in professional forecasts are not observable, the diversity in model forecasts can be traced to different modeling assumptions, information sets and parameter estimates. JEL Classification: C53, D84, E31, E32, E37 Keywords: Forecasting, Business Cycles, Heterogeneous Beliefs, Forecast Distribution, Model Uncertainty, Bayesian Estimation
We analyse a 2-period competitive insurance market which is characterized by the simultaneous presence of standard moral hazard and adverse selection with regard to consumer time preferences. It is shown that there exists an equilibrium in which patient consumers use high effort and buy a profit-making insurance contract with high coverage, whereas impatient consumers use low effort and buy a contract with low coverage or even remain uninsured. This finding may help to explain why positive profits and the opposite of adverse selection with regard to risk types can sometimes be observed empirically. JEL Classification: D82, G22
Insects, the new food?
(2017)
In many parts of the world it is common to eat insects while in the western world it is regarded as a bizarre habit, even evoking disgust. Is this justified? What if insects were nutritionally similar to our common meat products and have proven to be delicious in blind tests? Insects have an environmental impact which is much less than our common production animals, so why not eat it? If these questions can be answered affirmatively, then the question is: Can we persuade the western consumers to take this psychological barrier? There has been a tremendous interest during the last five years to promote insects as food. There are now close to 200 start-up companies listed. Also, in the scientific world the interest is growing exponentially, testified by the number of articles on edible insects that have appeared during the last 15 years (83 from 2011 to 2015 against 9 from 2001 to 20051). These articles deal with harvesting from nature, environmental benefits, nutritional value, food safety, processing, and consumer attitudes. I will give a short overview of the developments in these different areas.