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A positive association between brain size and intelligence is firmly established, but whether region-specific anatomical differences contribute to general intelligence remains an open question. Results from voxel-based morphometry (VBM) - one of the most widely used morphometric methods - have remained inconclusive so far. Here, we applied cross-validated machine learning-based predictive modeling to test whether out-of-sample prediction of individual intelligence scores is possible on the basis of voxel-wise gray matter volume. Features were derived from structural magnetic resonance imaging data (N = 308) using (a) a purely data-driven method (principal component analysis) and (b) a domain knowledge-based approach (atlas parcellation). When using relative gray matter (corrected for total brain size), only the atlas-based approach provided significant prediction, while absolute gray matter (uncorrected) allowed for above-chance prediction with both approaches. Importantly, in all significant predictions, the absolute error was relatively high, i.e., greater than ten IQ points, and in the atlas-based models, the predicted IQ scores varied closely around the sample mean. This renders the practical value even of statistically significant prediction results questionable. Analyses based on the gray matter of functional brain networks yielded significant predictions for the fronto-parietal network and the cerebellum. However, the mean absolute errors were not reduced in contrast to the global models, suggesting that general intelligence may be related more to global than region-specific differences in gray matter volume. More generally, our study highlights the importance of predictive statistical analysis approaches for clarifying the neurobiological bases of intelligence and provides important suggestions for future research using predictive modeling.
Children with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) are characterized by symptoms of inattention, impulsivity, and hyperactivity. Neurophysiological correlates of ADHD include changes in the P3 component of event-related brain potentials (ERPs). Motivated by recent advances towards a more dimensional understanding of ADHD, we investigate whether ADHD-related ERP markers relate to continuous variations in attention and executive functioning also in typically-developing children. ERPs were measured while 31 school children (9–11 years) completed an adapted version of the Continuous Performance Task that additionally to inhibitory processes also isolates effects of physical stimulus salience. Children with higher levels of parent-reported ADHD symptoms did not differ in task performance, but exhibited smaller P3 amplitudes related to stimulus salience. Furthermore, ADHD symptoms were associated with the variability of neural responses over time: Children with higher levels of ADHD symptoms demonstrated lower variability in inhibition- and salience-related P3 amplitudes. No effects were observed for ERP latencies and the salience-related N2. By demonstrating that ADHD-associated neurophysiological mechanisms of inhibition and salience processing covary with attention and executive functioning in a children community sample, our study provides neurophysiological support for dimensional models of ADHD. Also, temporal variability in event-related potentials is highlighted as additional indicator of ADHD requiring further investigation.