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Assessing the uncertainties of simulation results of ecological models is becoming increasingly important, specifically if these models are used to estimate greenhouse gas emissions on site to regional/national levels. Four general sources of uncertainty effect the outcome of process-based models: (i) uncertainty of information used to initialise and drive the model, (ii) uncertainty of model parameters describing specific ecosystem processes, (iii) uncertainty of the model structure, and (iv) accurateness of measurements (e.g., soil-atmosphere greenhouse gas exchange) which are used for model testing and development.
The aim of our study was to assess the simulation uncertainty of the process-based biogeochemical model LandscapeDNDC. For this we set up a Bayesian framework using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, to estimate the joint model parameter distribution. Data for model testing, parameter estimation and uncertainty assessment were taken from observations of soil fluxes of nitrous oxide (N2O), nitric oxide (NO) and carbon dioxide (CO2) as observed over a 10 yr period at the spruce site of the Höglwald Forest, Germany. By running four independent Markov Chains in parallel with identical properties (except for the parameter start values), an objective criteria for chain convergence developed by Gelman et al. (2003) could be used.
Our approach shows that by means of the joint parameter distribution, we were able not only to limit the parameter space and specify the probability of parameter values, but also to assess the complex dependencies among model parameters used for simulating soil C and N trace gas emissions. This helped to improve the understanding of the behaviour of the complex LandscapeDNDC model while simulating soil C and N turnover processes and associated C and N soil-atmosphere exchange. In a final step the parameter distribution of the most sensitive parameters determining soil-atmosphere C and N exchange were used to obtain the parameter-induced uncertainty of simulated N2O, NO and CO2 emissions. These were compared to observational data of an calibration set (6 yr) and an independent validation set of 4 yr. The comparison showed that most of the annual observed trace gas emissions were in the range of simulated values and were predicted with a high certainty (Root-mean-squared error (RMSE) NO: 2.4 to 18.95 g N ha−1 d−1, N2O: 0.14 to 21.12 g N ha−1 d−1, CO2: 5.4 to 11.9 kg C ha−1 d−1). However, LandscapeDNDC simulations were sometimes still limited to accurately predict observed seasonal variations in fluxes.
The impacts of human activities, notably the conversion of tropical forests into farmland habitat, has profound impacts on biological diversity and ecosystem functions (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005). It is widely debated to what extent human modified landscapes can maintain tropical biodiversity and their ecosystem functionality (e.g. Waltert et al. 2004, Sekercioglu et al. 2007). In this thesis, I have used a huge and temporarily replicated dataset to assess the value of different habitat types differing in land-use intensities for bird communities in tropical East Africa. I investigated bird abundance and species richness along a forest-farmland habitat gradient and assessed spatial and temporal fluctuations of bird assemblages and their food resources.
I could show that forest and farmland habitats harbor distinct bird communities. Moreover, the protection of natural forests merits the highest priority for conserving the high diversity of forest-dependent bird species. My study, however, also shows that farmland habitats in the proximity of natural forest can support a high bird diversity. High bird diversity in tropical farmlands depends on a high structural complexity, such as in small-scale subsistence farmlands. From my findings, I conclude that the conversion of forest to farmland leads to substantial losses in bird diversity, in particular in specialized feeding guilds such as insectivores, while the conversion of structurally heterogeneous subsistence farmlands to sugarcane plantation causes erosion of bird diversity in agricultural ecosystems. Both findings are important for conservation planning in times when tropical forests and agroecosystems are under constantly high pressure due to increasing human population numbers and global demands for biofuel crops (Gibbs et al. 2008). From an ecosystem function perspective, my study demonstrates the potential of agroecosystems in supporting important ecosystem functions, such as seed dispersal by frugivorous birds and pest control by insectivorous birds. I could show that bird abundances in both frugivorous and insectivorous guilds were strongly predicted by their respective food resources, implying that seasonal shifts in fruit and invertebrate abundance at Kakamega forest and surrounding farmlands affect community dynamics and appear to influence local movement patterns of birds. The most interesting finding of this study was that feeding guilds responded idiosyncratically to resource fluctuations. Frugivore richness fluctuated asynchronously in forest and farmland habitats, suggesting foraging movements and fruit tracking across habitat borders. In contrast, I found that insectivores fluctuated synchronously in the two habitat types, suggesting a lack of inter-habitat movements. I therefore predict that insectivorous bird communities in this forest-farmland landscape may be more susceptible to the combined effects of land-use and climate change, due to their narrow habitat niche and limited capacity to track their resources.
The fact that a number of bird species regularly moved across the landscape mosaic in my study system implies that birds are able to provide long-distance seed dispersal across habitat borders. Thus, birds may enhance forest regeneration in human-modified landscapes, such as those in most parts of tropical Africa, given that forest remnants are protected within an agricultural habitat matrix. In order to effectively conserve tropical biodiversity within forest-farmland mosaics, this study advocates for conservation strategies that go beyond forest protection and explicitly integrate farmlands into forest management plans and policies. This should emphasize the retention of keystone habitat elements within tropical farmland landscapes, such as indigenous trees, forest galleries and hedgerows, whose presence enhance species diversity. Such grassroot-level approaches can be operationalized for instance through providing incentives to farmers to maintain their traditional subsistence land-use practices and through community-based livelihood projects aiming at enhancing local habitat heterogeneity and inter-habitat connectivity.
Stakeholder dialogues can be used not only to introduce and discuss the various demands of the participants. Under certain circumstances they can also serve to smoothen out and solve conflicts that arise in connection with the use and conservation of biodiversity. In order to be successful in this respect, it is crucial to create a situation enabling a process of joint learning. A positive effect might also be achieved by the formation of groups that evolve in the course of a succession of workshops as well as speeches and special items on the agenda. In order for the workshops to be successful, they should be supported by frequent stakeholder analyses. In this guideline we are listing related principles and indications from the literature as well as our own experiences geared towards jointly solving biodiversity conflicts and creating islands of consensus.
Temporal variation in the detectability of a species can bias estimates of relative abundance if not handled correctly. For example, when effort varies in space and/or time it becomes necessary to take variation in detectability into account when data are analyzed. We demonstrate the importance of incorporating seasonality into the analysis of data with unequal sample sizes due to lost traps at a particular density of a species. A case study of count data was simulated using a spring-active carabid beetle. Traps were ‘lost’ randomly during high beetle activity in high abundance sites and during low beetle activity in low abundance sites. Five different models were fitted to datasets with different levels of loss. If sample sizes were unequal and a seasonality variable was not included in models that assumed the number of individuals was log-normally distributed, the models severely under- or overestimated the true effect size. Results did not improve when seasonality and number of trapping days were included in these models as offset terms, but only performed well when the response variable was specified as following a negative binomial distribution. Finally, if seasonal variation of a species is unknown, which is often the case, seasonality can be added as a free factor, resulting in well-performing negative binomial models. Based on these results we recommend (a) add sampling effort (number of trapping days in our example) to the models as an offset term, (b) if precise information is available on seasonal variation in detectability of a study object, add seasonality to the models as an offset term; (c) if information on seasonal variation in detectability is inadequate, add seasonality as a free factor; and (d) specify the response variable of count data as following a negative binomial or over-dispersed Poisson distribution.
Sucrose is known to repress the translation of Arabidopsis thaliana AtbZIP11 transcript which encodes a protein belonging to the group of S (S - stands for small) basic region-leucine zipper (bZIP)-type transcription factor. This repression is called sucrose-induced repression of translation (SIRT). It is mediated through the sucrose-controlled upstream open reading frame (SC-uORF) found in the AtbZIP11 transcript. The SIRT is reported for 4 other genes belonging to the group of S bZIP in Arabidopsis. Tobacco tbz17 is phylogenetically closely related to AtbZIP11 and carries a putative SC-uORF in its 5′-leader region. Here we demonstrate that tbz17 exhibits SIRT mediated by its SC-uORF in a manner similar to genes belonging to the S bZIP group of the Arabidopsis genus. Furthermore, constitutive transgenic expression of tbz17 lacking its 5′-leader region containing the SC-uORF leads to production of tobacco plants with thicker leaves composed of enlarged cells with 3–4 times higher sucrose content compared to wild type plants. Our finding provides a novel strategy to generate plants with high sucrose content.
Menschliche Aktivitäten beeinflussen beinahe alle Bereiche des Lebens auf der Erde (MEA 2005a; UNEP 2007). Die Zerstörung und Veränderung natürlicher Lebensräume sind als Hauptursache für den weltweiten Biodiversitätsverlust identifiziert (Harrison and Bruna 1999; Dale et al. 2000; Foley et al. 2005; MEA 2005a). Zusammen mit dem Klimawandel wird die Landnutzungsveränderung daher als einflussreichster Aspekt anthropogen verursachten globalen Wandels betrachtet (MEA 2005a). Landnutzungsveränderung schließt sowohl die Umwandlung natürlicher Habitate in Agrarland oder Siedlungen als auch die Landnutzungsintensivierung in bereits kultivierten Landschaften mit ein. Diese Veränderungen haben weitreichende Konsequenzen für die Artenvielfalt und resultieren häufig in dem Verlust von Arten mit zunehmender Intensität der Landnutzung (Scholes and Biggs 2005).
Biodiversität und Ökosysteme stellen viele verschiedene Funktionen zur Verfügung, wie z. B. die Sauerstoffproduktion, die Reinigung von Wasser und die Bestäubung von Nutzpflanzen.
Einige dieser Funktionen sind hilfreich, andere wichtig und wieder andere notwendig für das menschliche Wohlergehen (MEA 2005b; UNEP 2007). Mittlerweile sind Ökosystemfunktionen und die vielen Nutzen, die sie erbringen, zu einem zentralen Thema der interdisziplinären Forschung von Sozialwissenschaften und Naturwissenschaften geworden (Barkmann et al. 2008 und darin enthaltene Referenzen). Dadurch bedingt ist es zu einiger Verwirrung bezüglich der verwendeten Begriffe der "Ökosystemfunktion" (engl. "ecosystem function") und dem der "Ökosystemdienstleistung" (engl. "ecosystem service") gekommen (deGroot et al. 2002). Da der Fokus meiner Arbeit auf grundlegenden Funktionen von Ökosystemen liegt, verwende ich im Folgenden den Begriff der Ökosystemfunktion.
Für viele Ökosystemfunktionen ist noch sehr unzureichend bekannt, wie diese von externen Störungen beeinflusst werden (Kremen and Ostfeld 2005; Balvanera et al. 2006). Ökosystemfunktionen werden selten von nur einer einzigen Art aufrechterhalten, sondern meist von einer ganzen Reihe unterschiedlicher taxonomischer Gruppen – alle mit ihren ganz eigenen Ansprüchen. Diese Arten, wie auch deren intra- und interspezifischen Interaktionen, können durchaus nterschiedlich auf die gleiche Störungsquelle oder Störungsintensität reagieren. Dies kann Vorhersagen zum Verhalten von Ökosystemfunktionen extrem erschweren. ...
Patterns of post-glacial genetic differentiation in marginal populations of a marine microalga
(2012)
This study investigates the genetic structure of an eukaryotic microorganism, the toxic dinoflagellate Alexandrium ostenfeldii, from the Baltic Sea, a geologically young and ecologically marginal brackish water estuary which is predicted to support evolution of distinct, genetically impoverished lineages of marine macroorganisms. Analyses of the internal transcribed spacer (ITS) sequences and Amplified Fragment Length Polymorphism (AFLP) of 84 A. ostenfeldii isolates from five different Baltic locations and multiple external sites revealed that Baltic A. ostenfeldii is phylogenetically differentiated from other lineages of the species and micro-geographically fragmented within the Baltic Sea. Significant genetic differentiation (FST) between northern and southern locations was correlated to geographical distance. However, instead of discrete genetic units or continuous genetic differentiation, the analysis of population structure suggests a complex and partially hierarchic pattern of genetic differentiation. The observed pattern suggests that initial colonization was followed by local differentiation and varying degrees of dispersal, most likely depending on local habitat conditions and prevailing current systems separating the Baltic Sea populations. Local subpopulations generally exhibited low levels of overall gene diversity. Association analysis suggests predominately asexual reproduction most likely accompanied by frequency shifts of clonal lineages during planktonic growth. Our results indicate that the general pattern of genetic differentiation and reduced genetic diversity of Baltic populations found in large organisms also applies to microscopic eukaryotic organisms.
Spatial variations of nitrogen trace gas emissions from tropical mountain forests in Nyungwe, Rwanda
(2012)
Globally, tropical forest soils represent the second largest source of N2O and NO. However, there is still considerable uncertainty on the spatial variability and soil properties controlling N trace gas emission. Therefore, we carried out an incubation experiment with soils from 31 locations in the Nyungwe tropical mountain forest in southwestern Rwanda. All soils were incubated at three different moisture levels (50, 70 and 90 % water filled pore space (WFPS)) at 17 °C. Nitrous oxide emission varied between 4.5 and 400 μg N m−2 h−1, while NO emission varied from 6.6 to 265 μg N m−2 h−1. Mean N2O emission at different moisture levels was 46.5 ± 11.1 (50 %WFPS), 71.7 ± 11.5 (70 %WFPS) and 98.8 ± 16.4 (90 %WFPS) μg N m−2 h−1, while mean NO emission was 69.3 ± 9.3 (50 %WFPS), 47.1 ± 5.8 (70 %WFPS) and 36.1 ± 4.2 (90 %WFPS) μg N m−2 h−1. The latter suggests that climate (i.e. dry vs. wet season) controls N2O and NO emissions. Positive correlations with soil carbon and nitrogen indicate a biological control over N2O and NO production. But interestingly N2O and NO emissions also showed a positive correlation with free iron and a negative correlation with soil pH (only N2O). The latter suggest that chemo-denitrification might, at least for N2O, be an important production pathway. In conclusion improved understanding and process based modeling of N trace gas emission from tropical forests will benefit from spatially explicit trace gas emission estimates linked to basic soil property data and differentiating between biological and chemical pathways for N trace gas formation.
wo assumptions underlie current models of the geographical ranges of perennial plant species: 1. current ranges are in equilibrium with the prevailing climate, and 2. changes are attributable to changes in macroclimatic factors, including tolerance of winter cold, the duration of the growing season, and water stress during the growing season, rather than to biotic interactions. These assumptions allow model parameters to be estimated from current species ranges. Deterioration of growing conditions due to climate change, e.g. more severe drought, will cause local extinction. However, for many plant species, the predicted climate change of higher minimum temperatures and longer growing seasons means, improved growing conditions. Biogeographical models may under some circumstances predict that a species will become locally extinct, despite improved growing conditions, because they are based on an assumption of equilibrium and this forces the species range to match the species-specific macroclimatic thresholds. We argue that such model predictions should be rejected unless there is evidence either that competition influences the position of the range margins or that a certain physiological mechanism associated with the apparent improvement in growing conditions negatively affects the species performance. We illustrate how a process-based vegetation model can be used to ascertain whether such a physiological cause exists. To avoid potential modelling errors of this type, we propose a method that constrains the scenario predictions of the envelope models by changing the geographical distribution of the dominant plant functional type. Consistent modelling results are very important for evaluating how changes in species areas affect local functional trait diversity and hence ecosystem functioning and resilience, and for inferring the implications for conservation management in the face of climate change.
Protective ant-plant mutualisms that are exploited by non-defending parasitic ants represent prominent model systems for ecology and evolutionary biology. The mutualist Pseudomyrmex ferrugineus is an obligate plant-ant and fully depends on acacias for nesting space and food. The parasite Pseudomyrmex gracilis facultatively nests on acacias and uses host-derived food rewards but also external food sources. Integrative analyses of genetic microsatellite data, cuticular hydrocarbons and behavioral assays showed that an individual acacia might be inhabited by the workers of several P. gracilis queens, whereas one P. ferrugineus colony monopolizes one or more host trees. Despite these differences in social organization, neither of the species exhibited aggressive behavior among conspecific workers sharing a tree regardless of their relatedness. This lack of aggression corresponds to the high similarity of cuticular hydrocarbon profiles among ants living on the same tree. Host sharing by unrelated colonies, or the presence of several queens in a single colony are discussed as strategies by which parasite colonies could achieve the observed social organization. We argue that in ecological terms, the non-aggressive behavior of non-sibling P. gracilis workers — regardless of the route to achieve this social structure — enables this species to efficiently occupy and exploit a host plant. By contrast, single large and long-lived colonies of the mutualist P. ferrugineus monopolize individual host plants and defend them aggressively against invaders from other trees. Our findings highlight the necessity for using several methods in combination to fully understand how differing life history strategies affect social organization in ants.