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To prepare for an impending event of unknown temporal distribution, humans internally increase the perceived probability of event onset as time elapses. This effect is termed the hazard rate of events. We tested how the neural encoding of hazard rate changes by providing human participants with prior information on temporal event probability. We recorded behavioral and electroencephalographic (EEG) data while participants listened to continuously repeating five-tone sequences, composed of four standard tones followed by a non-target deviant tone, delivered at slow (1.6 Hz) or fast (4 Hz) rates. The task was to detect a rare target tone, which equiprobably appeared at either position two, three or four of the repeating sequence. In this design, potential target position acts as a proxy for elapsed time. For participants uninformed about the target’s distribution, elapsed time to uncertain target onset increased response speed, displaying a significant hazard rate effect at both slow and fast stimulus rates. However, only in fast sequences did prior information about the target’s temporal distribution interact with elapsed time, suppressing the hazard rate. Importantly, in the fast, uninformed condition pre-stimulus power synchronization in the beta band (Beta 1, 15–19 Hz) predicted the hazard rate of response times. Prior information suppressed pre-stimulus power synchronization in the same band, while still significantly predicting response times. We conclude that Beta 1 power does not simply encode the hazard rate, but—more generally—internal estimates of temporal event probability based upon contextual information.
Natural sounds convey perceptually relevant information over multiple timescales, and the necessary extraction of multi-timescale information requires the auditory system to work over distinct ranges. The simplest hypothesis suggests that temporal modulations are encoded in an equivalent manner within a reasonable intermediate range. We show that the human auditory system selectively and preferentially tracks acoustic dynamics concurrently at 2 timescales corresponding to the neurophysiological theta band (4–7 Hz) and gamma band ranges (31–45 Hz) but, contrary to expectation, not at the timescale corresponding to alpha (8–12 Hz), which has also been found to be related to auditory perception. Listeners heard synthetic acoustic stimuli with temporally modulated structures at 3 timescales (approximately 190-, approximately 100-, and approximately 30-ms modulation periods) and identified the stimuli while undergoing magnetoencephalography recording. There was strong intertrial phase coherence in the theta band for stimuli of all modulation rates and in the gamma band for stimuli with corresponding modulation rates. The alpha band did not respond in a similar manner. Classification analyses also revealed that oscillatory phase reliably tracked temporal dynamics but not equivalently across rates. Finally, mutual information analyses quantifying the relation between phase and cochlear-scaled correlations also showed preferential processing in 2 distinct regimes, with the alpha range again yielding different patterns. The results support the hypothesis that the human auditory system employs (at least) a 2-timescale processing mode, in which lower and higher perceptual sampling scales are segregated by an intermediate temporal regime in the alpha band that likely reflects different underlying computations.