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Inter-areal coherence has been hypothesized as a mechanism for inter-areal communication. Indeed, empirical studies have observed an increase in inter-areal coherence with attention. Yet, the mechanisms underlying changes in coherence remain largely unknown. Both attention and stimulus salience are associated with shifts in the peak frequency of gamma oscillations in V1, which suggests that the frequency of oscillations may play a role in facilitating changes in inter-areal communication and coherence. In this study, we used computational modeling to investigate how the peak frequency of a sender influences inter-areal coherence. We show that changes in the magnitude of coherence are largely determined by the peak frequency of the sender. However, the pattern of coherence depends on the intrinsic properties of the receiver, specifically whether the receiver integrates or resonates with its synaptic inputs. Because resonant receivers are frequency-selective, resonance has been proposed as a mechanism for selective communication. However, the pattern of coherence changes produced by a resonant receiver is inconsistent with empirical studies. By contrast, an integrator receiver does produce the pattern of coherence with frequency shifts in the sender observed in empirical studies. These results indicate that coherence can be a misleading measure of inter-areal interactions. This led us to develop a new measure of inter-areal interactions, which we refer to as Explained Power. We show that Explained Power maps directly to the signal transmitted by the sender filtered by the receiver, and thus provides a method to quantify the true signals transmitted between the sender and receiver. Together, these findings provide a model of changes in inter-areal coherence and Granger-causality as a result of frequency shifts.
We build a novel leading indicator (LI) for the EU industrial production (IP). Differently from previous studies, the technique developed in this paper is able to produce an ex-ante LI that is immune to “overlapping information drawbacks”. In addition, the set of variables composing the LI relies on a dynamic and systematic criterion. This ensures that the choice of the variables is not driven by subjective views. Our LI anticipates swings (including the 2007-2008 crisis) in the EU industrial production – on average – by 2 to 3 months. The predictive power improves if the indicator is revised every five or ten years. In a forward-looking framework, via a general-to-specific procedure, we also show that our LI represents the most informative variable in approaching expectations on the EU IP growth.
We provide insights into determinants of the rating level of 371 issuers which defaulted in the years 1999 to 2003, and into the leader-follower relationship between Moody’s and S&P. The evidence for the rating level suggests that Moody’s assigns lower ratings than S&P for all observed periods before the default event. Furthermore, we observe two-way Granger causal-ity, which signifies information flow between the two rating agencies. Since lagged rating changes influence the magnitude of the agencies’ own rating changes it would appear that the two rating agencies apply a policy of taking a severe downgrade through several mild down-grades. Further, our analysis of rating changes shows that issuers with headquarters in the US are less sharply downgraded than non-US issuers. For rating changes by Moody’s we also find that larger issuers seem to be downgraded less severely than smaller issuers.