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This thesis develops a conceptual framework for a better understanding of the impact of slow-onset climate and environmental changes on human migration in developing countries. Its regional focus is on the West African Sahel, where the majority of the population depends on agriculture and thus is highly vulnerable to environmental changes. Migration from fragile environments is predominantly considered one of several household strategies to adapt to and minimise the risk of environmental stress. Based on qualitative and quantitative data from two selected rural study areas, Bandiagara in Mali and Linguère in Senegal, this thesis analyses the drivers of migration from the two areas.
The findings illustrate that, even though people highly depend on the natural environment, migration motives are manifold and that migration often is not a household strategy to cope with environmental changes. Although environmental conditions shape migration in the region and the migrants’ support is crucial for most households, environmental stress plays a relatively small role as a driver of migration - at least in Mali, where it is considerably less important than in Senegal. On the contrary, migration is often driven by better opportunities elsewhere rather than by livelihood stressors in the home area. Particularly the migration of young people is often an individual rather than a household decision and influenced by individual aspirations, such as aspirations for consumer goods or a better future, rather than by environmental stress.
This thesis claims that research should consider people’s capabilities to migrate or to stay as well as their individual aspirations and preferences - in addition to the household’s needs and the opportunities elsewhere. This is important in order to explain why some people stay in and others migrate from an area affected by environmental stress, though living under similar conditions. Depending on people’s capabilities to choose freely between staying and migrating and their preferences and aspirations for one or the other activity, people can either be “voluntary migrants”, “voluntary non-migrants”, “forced migrants” or “trapped people”.
Moreover, it is important to consider social trends and transformation processes in the analysis of the linkages between environment change and migration. Higher education levels and aspirations to a “modern” lifestyle among young people, for instance, might decrease the impact of environmental factors on migration, despite worsening environmental conditions.
This study examines the urban heat island (UHI) of Brussels, for both current (2000–2009) and projected future (2060–2069) climate conditions, by employing very high resolution (250 m) modelling experiments, using the urban boundary layer climate model UrbClim. Meteorological parameters that are related to the intensity of the UHI are identified and it is investigated how these parameters and the magnitude of the UHI evolve for two plausible trajectories for future climate conditions. UHI intensity is found to be strongly correlated to the inversion strength in the lowest 100 m of the atmosphere. The results for the future scenarios indicate that the magnitude of the UHI is expected to decrease slightly due to global warming. This can be attributed to the increased incoming longwave radiation, caused by higher air temperature and humidity values. The presence of the UHI also has a significant impact on the frequency of extreme temperature events in the city area, both in present and future climates, and exacerbates the impact of climate change on the urban population as the amount of heat wave days in the city increases twice as fast as in the rural surroundings.