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Does economic policy uncertainty affect household stockholding? To answer this question we create a novel measure of household exposure to economic policy uncertainty news by combining survey information on the hours a household spends in reading newspapers and the frequency of such news in the popular press during a household’s pre-interview period. After controlling for household fixed effects, month-year fixed effects and time-varying cognitive skills, we find that households with a higher exposure to economic policy uncertainty news are less likely to invest in stocks held directly or through mutual funds. This effect is independent from the market volatility index and household (first-moment) expectations about the stock market index.
Der Band untersucht die Ursachen, Ausprägungen und Reaktionen auf die Entstehung bzw. Erstarkung populistischer Parteien und Bewegungen in Deutschland und Ostmitteleuropa.
Inhaltsverzeichnis:
Arthur Benz: Populismus als Herausforderung für Wissenschaft und Praxis - Einleitung
Dirk Jörke: Populismus – Ursachen und falsche Antworten
Michael Edinger: Mobilisierung gegen das Establishment. Zu einem Wesensmerkmal populistischer Strömungen
Claudia Landwehr und Nils D. Steiner: Populismus – eine Nachfrageperspektive
Joachim Klose: Ein Land, zwei Perspektiven? Zum Populismusin Ost- und Westdeutschland
Petra Guasti und Lenka Buštíková: Populismus in Ostmitteleuropa und der Verzicht auf Politik
Im Mittelpunkt Deutsch
(2018)
The paper illustrates based on an example the importance of consistency between the empirical measurement and the concept of variables in estimated macroeconomic models. Since standard New Keynesian models do not account for demographic trends and sectoral shifts, the authors proposes adjusting hours worked per capita used to estimate such models accordingly to enhance the consistency between the data and the model. Without this adjustment, low frequency shifts in hours lead to unreasonable trends in the output gap, caused by the close link between hours and the output gap in such models.
The retirement wave of baby boomers, for example, lowers U.S. aggregate hours per capita, which leads to erroneous permanently negative output gap estimates following the Great Recession. After correcting hours for changes in the age composition, the estimated output gap closes gradually instead following the years after the Great Recession.
The authors relax the standard assumption in the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) literature that exogenous processes are governed by AR(1) processes and estimate ARMA (p,q) orders and parameters of exogenous processes. Methodologically, they contribute to the Bayesian DSGE literature by using Reversible Jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC) to sample from the unknown ARMA orders and their associated parameter spaces of varying dimensions.
In estimating the technology process in the neoclassical growth model using post war US GDP data, they cast considerable doubt on the standard AR(1) assumption in favor of higher order processes. They find that the posterior concentrates density on hump-shaped impulse responses for all endogenous variables, consistent with alternative empirical estimates and the rigidities behind many richer structural models. Sampling from noninvertible MA representations, a negative response of hours to a positive technology shock is contained within the posterior credible set. While the posterior contains significant uncertainty regarding the exact order, the results are insensitive to the choice of data filter; this contrasts with the authors’ ARMA estimates of GDP itself, which vary significantly depending on the choice of HP or first difference filter.
Der Beitrag bietet eine Übersicht zu den Zusammenhängen zwischen Immaterialgüterrechten (IP [intellectual property]-Rechte), Privatautonomie und Innovation. Demnach beruht das IP-Recht auf der Annahme, dass erst die Kombination aus fungiblen Ausschließlichkeitsrechten und Privatautonomie – also die juristische Form der Marktwirtschaft – einen innovationsförderlichen Effekt verspricht. Dementsprechend kombiniert das geltende Recht ein hohes materielles IP-Schutzniveau mit einer weitreichenden Anerkennung der Privatautonomie der Berechtigten. Dieser Regulierungsansatz hat den Vorteil, dass sehr anpassungsfähige Rahmenbedingungen für Innovationen geschaffen werden. Wer für seine Innovation eine umfassende Exklusivität benötigt, kann unter Geltung der beiden genannten Prinzipien ebenso operieren wie Akteure, die auf IP-Schutz teilweise oder ganz verzichten möchten, weil ihnen dies unter den gegebenen Wettbewerbsbedingungen vorzugswürdig erscheint. Und doch erläutert der Beitrag, dass die naheliegende Folgerung zu kurz greift, der Gesetzgeber könne sich darauf beschränken, möglichst umfassende und zugleich fungible IP-Rechte zu kodifizieren, da der Markt stets für eine effiziente und auch sonst sozial wünschenswerte Ressourcenallokation sorge. Denn die mit ausschließlichen IP-Rechten verbundenen Transaktionskosten stehen diesem Ziel nicht selten im Wege. Damit zeigt sich, dass keine noch so elaborierte Vertragsrechtstheorie die Frage nach dem Sinn des logisch vorrangigen Eigentums erübrigt.
This paper revisits the macroeconomic effects of the large-scale asset purchase programmes launched by the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England from 2008. Using a Bayesian VAR, we investigate the macroeconomic impact of shocks to asset purchase announcements and assess changes in their effectiveness based on subsample analysis. The results suggest that the early asset purchase programmes had significant positive macroeconomic effects, while those of the subsequent ones were weaker and in part not significantly different from zero. The reduced effectiveness seems to reflect in part better anticipation of asset purchase programmes over time, since we find significant positive macroeconomic effects when we consider shocks to survey expectations of the Federal Reserve’s last asset purchase programme. Finally, in all estimations we find a significant and persistent positive impact of asset purchase shocks on stock prices.
We use minutes from 17,000 financial advisory sessions and corresponding client portfolio data to study how active client involvement affects advisor recommendations and portfolio outcomes. We find that advisors confronted with acquiescent clients stick to their standards and recommend expensive but well diversified mutual fund portfolios. However, if clients take an active role in the meetings, advisors deviate markedly from their standards, resulting in poorer portfolio diversification and lower Sharpe ratios. Our findings that advisors cater to client requests parallel the phenomenon of doctors prescribing antibiotics to insistent patients even if inappropriate, and imply that pandering diminishes the quality of advice.