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Background & Aims: Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) are increasingly a cause of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma globally. This burden is expected to increase as epidemics of obesity, diabetes and metabolic syndrome continue to grow. The goal of this analysis was to use a Markov model to forecast NAFLD disease burden using currently available data.
Methods: A model was used to estimate NAFLD and NASH disease progression in eight countries based on data for adult prevalence of obesity and type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM). Published estimates and expert consensus were used to build and validate the model projections.
Results: If obesity and DM level off in the future, we project a modest growth in total NAFLD cases (0–30%), between 2016–2030, with the highest growth in China as a result of urbanization and the lowest growth in Japan as a result of a shrinking population. However, at the same time, NASH prevalence will increase 15–56%, while liver mortality and advanced liver disease will more than double as a result of an aging/increasing population.
Conclusions: NAFLD and NASH represent a large and growing public health problem and efforts to understand this epidemic and to mitigate the disease burden are needed. If obesity and DM continue to increase at current and historical rates, both NAFLD and NASH prevalence are expected to increase. Since both are reversible, public health campaigns to increase awareness and diagnosis, and to promote diet and exercise can help manage the growth in future disease burden.
Lay summary: Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis can lead to advanced liver disease. Both conditions are becoming increasingly prevalent as the epidemics of obesity and diabetes continue to increase. A mathematical model was built to understand how the disease burden associated with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis will change over time. Results suggest increasing cases of advanced liver disease and liver-related mortality in the coming years.
Biosynthetic human insulin and insulin analogues are the mainstay of insulin therapy for both type 1 and type 2 diabetes although access to human insulin at affordable prices remains a global issue. The world is experiencing an exponential rise in the prevalence of diabetes presenting an urgent need to establish effective diabetes therapy in countries burdened by inadequate health care budgets, malnutrition and infectious diseases. Recombinant human insulin has replaced animal insulins and animal-based semisynthetic human insulin thereby available in sufficient quantities and at affordable prices able to provide global access to insulin therapy. In many patients, analog insulins can offer additional clinical benefit, although at a considerably higher price thus severely restricting availability in low income countries. The approval process for recombinant human insulins (i.e. biosimilars) and analogue insulins is highly variable in the developing countries in contrast to Europe and in North America, where it is well established within a strict regulatory framework. This review aims to discuss the future access to human insulin therapy in a global context with an ever increasing burden of diabetes and significant economic implications.
Chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is a leading cause for orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT) in the U.S. We investigated characteristics of HCV-infected patients registered for OLT, and explored factors associated with mortality. Data were obtained from the United Network for Organ Sharing and Organ Procurement and Transplantation network (UNOS/OPTN) registry. Analyses included 41,157 HCV-mono-infected patients ≥18 years of age listed for cadaveric OLT between February 2002 and June 2014. Characteristics associated with pre- and post-transplant survival and time trends over the study period were determined by logistic and Cox proportional hazard regression analyses and Poisson regressions. Most patients were white (69.1%) and male (70.8%). At waitlist registration, mean age was 54.6 years and mean MELD was 16. HCC was recorded in 26.9% of the records. A total of 51.2% of the patients received an OLT, 21.0% died or were too sick; 15.6% were delisted and 10.4% were still waiting. Factors associated with increased waitlist mortality were older age, female gender, blood type 0, diabetes, no HCC and transplant region (p<0.001). OLT recipient characteristics associated with increased risk for post OLT mortality were female gender, age, diabetes, race (p<0,0001), and allocation MELD (p = 0.005). Donor characteristics associated with waitlist mortality included age, ethnicity (p<0.0001) and diabetes (p<0.03). Waitlist registrations and OLTs for HCC significantly increased from 14.4% to 37.3% and 27.8% to 38.5%, respectively (p<0.0001). Pre- and post-transplant survival depended on a variety of patient-, donor-, and allocation- characteristics of which most remain relevant in the DAA-era. Still, intensified HCV screening strategies and timely and effective treatment of HCV are highly relevant to reduce the burden of HCV-related OLTs in the U.S.
Objective: Gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) is associated with substantial morbidity for mothers and their offspring. While clinical and basic research activities on this important disease grow constantly, there is no concise analysis of global architecture of GDM research. Hence, it was the objective of this study to assess the global scientific performance chronologically, geographically and in relation to existing research networks and gender distribution of publishing authors.
Study design: On the basis of the New Quality and Quantity Indices in Science (NewQIS) platform, scientometric methods were combined with modern visualizing techniques such as density equalizing mapping, and the Web of Science database was used to assess GDM-related entries from 1900 to 2012.
Results: Twelve thousand five hundred four GDM-related publications were identified and analyzed. The USA (4295 publications) and the UK (1354 publications) dominated the field concerning research activity, overall citations and country-specific Hirsch-Index, which quantified the impact of a country’s published research on the scientific community. Semi-qualitative indices such as country-specific citation rates ranked New Zealand and the UK at top positions. Annual collaborative publications increased steeply between the years 1990 and 2012 (71 to 1157 respectively). Subject category analysis pointed to a minor interest of public health issues in GDM research. Gender analysis in terms of publication authorship revealed a clear dominance of the male gender until 2005; then a trend towards gender equity started and the activity of female scientists grew visibly in many countries. The country-specific gender analysis revealed large differences, i.e. female scientists dominated the scientific output in the USA, whereas the majority of research was published by male authors in countries such as Japan.
Conclusion: This study provides the first global sketch of GDM research architecture. While North-American and Western-European countries were dominating the GDM-related scientific landscape, a disparity exists in terms of research output between developed and low-resource countries. Since GDM is linked to considerable mortality and morbidity of mothers and their offspring and constitutes a tremendous burden for the healthcare systems in underserved countries, our findings emphasize the need to address disparities by fostering research endeavors, public health programs and collaborative efforts in these nations.
Purpose: Few individuals that are latently infected with M. tuberculosis latent tuberculosis infection(LTBI) progress to active disease. We investigated risk factors for LTBI and active pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) in Germany.
Methods: Healthy household contacts (HHCs), health care workers (HCWs) exposed to M. tuberculosis and PTB patients were recruited at 18 German centres. Interferon-γ release assay (IGRA) testing was performed. LTBI risk factors were evaluated by comparing IGRA-positive with IGRA-negative contacts. Risk factors for tuberculosis were evaluated by comparing PTB patients with HHCs.
Results: From 2008–2014, 603 HHCs, 295 HCWs and 856 PTBs were recruited. LTBI was found in 34.5% of HHCs and in 38.9% of HCWs. In HCWs, care for coughing patients (p = 0.02) and longstanding nursing occupation (p = 0.04) were associated with LTBI. In HHCs, predictors for LTBI were a diseased partner (odds ratio 4.39), sexual contact to a diseased partner and substance dependency (all p < 0.001). PTB was associated with male sex, low body weight (p < 0.0001), alcoholism (15.0 vs 5.9%; p < 0.0001), glucocorticoid therapy (7.2 vs 2.0%; p = 0.004) and diabetes (7.8 vs. 4.0%; p = 0.04). No contact developed active tuberculosis within 2 years follow-up.
Conclusions: Positive IGRA responses are frequent among exposed HHCs and HCWs in Germany and are poor predictors for the development of active tuberculosis.
Background: Diabetes mellitus and thyroid diseases frequently coexist. In order to evaluate how thyroid disorders interfere with glycemic control, we analysed insulin-treated type 2 diabetes patients with thyroid disease.
Methods: Diabetes patients (n = 1.957) were retrospectively investigated. We focused on type 2 diabetes patients who had been admitted for insulin-treatment and diagnosed thyroid diseases (n = 328). Patients were divided into three groups according to thyroid disease manifestation in relation to diabetes onset: prior to (group 1), same year (group 2) and thyroid disease following diabetes (group 3).
Results: Out of all diabetes patients 27.3% had a thyroid disorder with more women (62.2%) being affected (p < 0.001). Thyroid disease was predominantly diagnosed after diabetes onset. Patients with type 2 diabetes and prior appearance of thyroid disease required insulin therapy significantly earlier (median insulin-free period: 2.5 yrs; Q1 = 0.0, Q3 = 8.25) compared to patients who had thyroid dysfunction after diabetes onset (median insulin-free period: 8.0 yrs; Q1 = 3.0, Q3 = 12.0; p < 0.001). Age at diabetes onset correlated with insulin-free period (p < 0.001).
Conclusions: Thyroid disease may be a marker of a distinct metabolic trait in type 2 diabetes potentially requiring earlier insulin treatment.