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Modern societies face the challenge that the time scale of opinion formation is continuously accelerating in contrast to the time scale of political decision making. With the latter remaining of the order of the election cycle we examine here the case that the political state of a society is determined by the continuously evolving values of the electorate. Given this assumption we show that the time lags inherent in the election cycle will inevitable lead to political instabilities for advanced democracies characterized both by an accelerating pace of opinion dynamics and by high sensibilities (political correctness) to deviations from mainstream values. Our result is based on the observation that dynamical systems become generically unstable whenever time delays become comparable to the time it takes to adapt to the steady state. The time needed to recover from external shocks grows in addition dramatically close to the transition. Our estimates for the order of magnitude of the involved time scales indicate that socio-political instabilities may develop once the aggregate time scale for the evolution of the political values of the electorate falls below 7–15 months.
There is increasing evidence that rapid phenotypic adaptation of quantitative traits is not uncommon in nature. However, the circumstances under which rapid adaptation of polygenic traits occurs are not yet understood. Building on previous concepts of soft selection, i.e. frequency and density dependent selection, I developed and tested the hypothesis that adaptation speed of a polygenic trait depends on the number of offspring per breeding pair in a randomly mating diploid population.
Using individual based modelling on a range of offspring per parent (2–200) in populations of various size (100–10000 individuals), I could show that the by far largest proportion of variance (42%) was explained by the offspring number, regardless of genetic trait architecture (10–50 loci, different locus contribution distributions). In addition, it was possible to identify the majority of the responsible loci and account for even more of the observed phenotypic change with a moderate population size.
The simulation results suggest that offspring numbers may a crucial factor for the adaptation speed of quantitative loci. Moreover, as large offspring numbers translates to a large phenotypic variance in the offspring of each parental pair, this genetic bet hedging strategy increases the chance to contribute to the next generation in unpredictable environments.
Mutations are the ultimate basis of evolution, yet their occurrence rate is known only for few species. We directly estimated the spontaneous mutation rate and the mutational spectrum in the non-biting midge C. riparius with a new approach. Individuals from ten mutation accumulation lines over five generations were deep genome sequenced to count de novo mutations (DNMs) that were not present in a pool of F1 individuals, representing parental genotypes. We identified 51 new single site mutations of which 25 were insertions or deletions and 26 single point mutations. This shift in the mutational spectrum compared to other organisms was explained by the high A/T content of the species. We estimated a haploid mutation rate of 2.1 x 10−9 (95% confidence interval: 1.4 x 10−9 – 3.1 x 10−9) which is in the range of recent estimates for other insects and supports the drift barrier hypothesis. We show that accurate mutation rate estimation from a high number of observed mutations is feasible with moderate effort even for non-model species.
Mapping cortical brain asymmetry in 17,141 healthy individuals worldwide via the ENIGMA Consortium
(2017)
Models of perceptual decision making have historically been designed to maximally explain behaviour and brain activity independently of their ability to actually perform tasks. More recently, performance-optimized models have been shown to correlate with brain responses to images and thus present a complementary approach to understand perceptual processes. In the present study, we compare how these approaches comparatively account for the spatio-temporal organization of neural responses elicited by ambiguous visual stimuli. Forty-six healthy human subjects performed perceptual decisions on briefly flashed stimuli constructed from ambiguous characters. The stimuli were designed to have 7 orthogonal properties, ranging from low-sensory levels (e.g. spatial location of the stimulus) to conceptual (whether stimulus is a letter or a digit) and task levels (i.e. required hand movement). Magneto-encephalography source and decoding analyses revealed that these 7 levels of representations are sequentially encoded by the cortical hierarchy, and actively maintained until the subject responds. This hierarchy appeared poorly correlated to normative, drift-diffusion, and 5-layer convolutional neural networks (CNN) optimized to accurately categorize alpha-numeric characters, but partially matched the sequence of activations of 3/6 state-of-the-art CNNs trained for natural image labeling (VGG-16, VGG-19, MobileNet). Additionally, we identify several systematic discrepancies between these CNNs and brain activity, revealing the importance of single-trial learning and recurrent processing. Overall, our results strengthen the notion that performance-optimized algorithms can converge towards the computational solution implemented by the human visual system, and open possible avenues to improve artificial perceptual decision making.
The 23Al(p, γ)24Si stellar reaction rate has a significant impact on the light-curve emitted in X-ray bursts. Theoretical calculations show that the reaction rate is mainly determined by the properties of direct capture as well as low-lying 2+ states and a possible 4+ state in 24Si. Currently, there is little experimental information on the properties of these states.
In this proceeding we will present a new experimental study to investigate this reaction, using the surrogate reaction 23Al(d,n) at 47 AMeV at the National Superconducting Cyclotron Laboratory (NSCL). We will discuss our new experimental setup which allows us to use full kinematics employing the Gamma-Ray Energy Tracking In-beam Nuclear Array (GRETINA) to detect the γ-rays following the de-excitation of excited states of the reaction products and the Low Energy Neutron Detector Array (LENDA) to detect the recoiling neutrons. The S800 was used for identification of the 24Si recoils. As a proof of principle to show the feasibility of this concept the Q-value spectrum of 22Mg(d,n)23Al is reconstructed.
The neutron capture cross section of several key unstable isotopes acting as branching points in the s-process are crucial for stellar nucleosynthesis studies, but they are very challenging to measure due to the difficult production of sufficient sample material, the high activity of the resulting samples, and the actual (n,γ) measurement, for which high neutron fluxes and effective background rejection capabilities are required. As part of a new program to measure some of these important branching points, radioactive targets of 147Pm and 171Tm have been produced by irradiation of stable isotopes at the ILL high flux reactor. Neutron capture on 146Nd and 170Er at the reactor was followed by beta decay and the resulting matrix was purified via radiochemical separation at PSI. The radioactive targets have been used for time-of-flight measurements at the CERN n_TOF facility using the 19 and 185 m beam lines during 2014 and 2015. The capture cascades were detected using a set of four C6D6 scintillators, allowing to observe the associated neutron capture resonances. The results presented in this work are the first ever determination of the resonance capture cross section of 147Pm and 171Tm. Activation experiments on the same 147Pm and 171Tm targets with a high-intensity 30 keV quasi-Maxwellian flux of neutrons will be performed using the SARAF accelerator and the Liquid-Lithium Target (LiLiT) in order to extract the corresponding Maxwellian Average Cross Section (MACS). The status of these experiments and preliminary results will be presented and discussed as well.
We derive three exact sum rules for the spectral function of the electromagnetic current with zero spatial momentum at finite temperature. Possible applications of the three sum rules to lattice computations of the spectral function and transport coefficients are also discussed: We propose an ansatz for the spectral function that can be applied to all three sum rules and fit it to available lattice data of the Euclidean vector correlator above the critical temperature. As a result, we obtain estimates for both the electrical conductivity σ and the second order transport coefficient τJ.
An important experimental program on Nuclear Astrophysics is being carried out at the n_TOF since several years, in order to address the still open issues in stellar and primordial nucleosynthesis. Several neutron capture reactions relevant to s-process nucleosynthesis have been measured so far, some of which on important branching point radioisotopes. Furthermore, the construction of a second experimental area has recently opened the way to challenging measurements of (n, charged particle) reactions on isotopes of short half-life. The Nuclear Astrophysics program of the n_TOF Collaboration is here described, with emphasis on recent results relevant for stellar nucleosynthesis, stellar neutron sources and primordial nucleosynthesis.
The spent fuel of current nuclear reactors contains fissile plutonium isotopes that can be combined with 238U to make mixed oxide (MOX) fuel. In this way the Pu from spent fuel is used in a new reactor cycle, contributing to the long-term sustainability of nuclear energy. The use of MOX fuels in thermal and fast reactors requires accurate capture and fission cross sections. For the particular case of 242Pu, the previous neutron capture cross section measurements were made in the 70's, providing an uncertainty of about 35% in the keV region. In this context, the Nuclear Energy Agency recommends in its “High Priority Request List” and its report WPEC-26 that the capture cross section of 242Pu should be measured with an accuracy of at least 7–12% in the neutron energy range between 500 eV and 500 keV. This work presents a brief description of the measurement performed at n_TOF-EAR1, the data reduction process and the first ToF capture measurement on this isotope in the last 40 years, providing preliminary individual resonance parameters beyond the current energy limits in the evaluations, as well as a preliminary set of average resonance parameters.