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GOeTHEO : Ausgabe 19
(2018)
We analytically characterize optimal monetary policy for an augmented New Keynesian model with a housing sector. In a setting where the private sector has rational expectations about future housing prices and inflation, optimal monetary policy can be characterized without making reference to housing price developments: commitment to a 'target criterion' that refers to inflation and the output gap only is optimal, as in the standard model without a housing sector. When the policymaker is concerned with potential departures of private sector expectations from rational ones and seeks to choose a policy that is robust against such possible departures, then the optimal target criterion must also depend on housing prices. In the empirically realistic case where housing is subsidized and where monopoly power causes output to fall short of its optimal level, the robustly optimal target criterion requires the central bank to 'lean against' housing prices: following unexpected housing price increases, policy should adopt a stance that is projected to undershoot its normal targets for inflation and the output gap, and similarly aim to overshoot those targets in the case of unexpected declines in housing prices. The robustly optimal target criterion does not require that policy distinguish between 'fundamental' and 'non-fundamental' movements in housing prices.
We establish that the labor market helps discipline asset managers via the impact of fund liquidations on their careers. Using hand-collected data on 1,948 professionals, we find that top managers working for funds liquidated after persistently poor relative performance suffer demotion coupled with a significant loss in imputed compensation. Scarring effects are absent when liquidations are preceded by normal relative performance or involve mid-level employees. Seen through the lens of a model with moral hazard and adverse selection, these results can be ascribed to reputation loss rather than bad luck. The findings suggest that performance-induced liquidations supplement compensation-based incentives.
In talent-intensive jobs, workers’ quality is revealed by their performance. This enhances productivity and earnings, but also increases layoff risk. Firms cannot insure workers against this risk if they compete fiercely for talent. In this case, the more risk-averse workers will choose less quality-revealing jobs. This lowers expected productivity and salaries. Public unemployment insurance corrects this inefficiency, enhancing employment in talent-sensitive industries, consistently with international evidence. Unemployment insurance dominates legal restrictions on firms’ dismissals, which penalize more talent-sensitive firms and thus depress expected productivity. Finally, unemployment insurance fosters education, by encouraging investment in risky human capital that enhances talent discovery.
We assess the relationship between finance and growth over the period 1980-2014. We estimate a cross-country growth regression for 48 countries during 20 periods of 15 years starting in 1980 (to 1995) and ending in 1999 (to 2014). We use OLS and IV estimations and we find that: 1) overall financial development had a positive effect on economic growth during all periods of our sample, i.e., we confirm that from 1980 to 2014 financial services provided by the various financial systems were significant (to various degrees) for firm creation, industrial expansion and economic growth; but that, 2) the structure of financial markets was particularly relevant for economic growth until the financial crisis; while 3) the structure of the banking sector played a major role since; and finally that, 4) the legal system is the primary determinant of the effectiveness of the overall financial system in facilitating innovation and growth in (almost) all of our sample period. Hence, overall our results suggest that the relationship between finance and growth matters but also that it varies over time in strength and in sector origination.
JEL Classification: O16, G16, G20.
Motivated by the observation that survey expectations of stock returns are inconsistent with rational return expectations under real-world probabilities, we investigate whether alternative expectations hypotheses entertained in the asset pricing literature are consistent with the survey evidence. We empirically test (1) the notion that survey forecasts constitute rational but risk-neutral forecasts of future returns, and (2) the notion that survey fore- casts are ambiguity averse/robust forecasts of future returns. We find that these alternative hypotheses are also strongly rejected by the data, albeit for different reasons. Hypothesis (1) is rejected because survey return forecasts are not in line with risk-free interest rates and because survey expected excess returns are predictable. Hypothesis (2) is rejected because agents are not al- ways pessimistic about future returns, instead often display overly optimistic return expectations. We speculate as to what kind of expectations theories might be consistent with the available survey evidence.
The German government has recently adopted a reform package for the statutory pension insurance scheme to ensure that the pension level will not fall below 48% and that the contribution rate will not exceed 20% up to 2025. In addition, there are planned improvements in maternal pensions, pensions for people with reduced earnings capacity and relief for low-income earners. The total extra cost of these measures is estimated at approximately EUR 32bn, to be financed by funds of the statutory pension system and by increased federal subsidies. It is currently unclear how the German pay-as-you-go pension system will be reformed for the period after 2025. The author suggests establishing a “Pension Fund Germany” as a capital-backed fund with a highly diversified investment portfolio. A German sovereign wealth fund of this kind could make an important contribution to greater intergenerational equity. Financing could be provided by, for example, retaining part of the solidarity surcharge on German income tax rather than abolishing it entirely, as is currently envisaged.
Antimicrobial resistance became a serious threat to the worldwide public health in this century. A better understanding of the mechanisms, by which bacteria infect host cells and how the host counteracts against the invading pathogens, is an important subject of current research. Intracellular bacteria of the Salmonella genus have been frequently used as a model system for bacterial infections. Salmonella are ingested by contaminated food or water and cause gastroenteritis and typhoid fever in animals and humans. Once inside the gastrointestinal tract, Salmonella can invade intestinal epithelial cells. The host cell can fight against intracellular pathogens by a process called xenophagy. For complex systems, such as processes involved in the bacterial infection of cells, computational systems biology provides approaches to describe mathematically how these intertwined mechanisms in the cell function. Computational systems biology allows the analysis of biological systems at different levels of abstraction. Functional dependencies as well as dynamic behavior can be studied. In this thesis, we used the Petri net formalism to gain a better insight into bacterial infections and host defense mechanisms and to predict cellular behavior that can be tested experimentally. We also focused on the development of new computational methods.
In this work, the first realization of a mathematical model of the xenophagic capturing of Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium in epithelial cells was developed. The mathematical model expressed in the Petri net formalism was constructed in an iterative way of modeling and analyses. For the model verification, we analyzed the Petri net, including a computational performance of knockout experiments named in silico knockouts, which was established in this work. The in silico knockouts of the proposed Petri net are consistent with the published experimental perturbation studies and, thus, ensures the biological credibility of the Petri net. In silico knockouts that have not been experimentally investigated yet provide hypotheses for future investigations of the pathway.
To study the dynamic behavior of an epithelial cell infected with Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium, a stochastic Petri net was constructed. In experimental research, a decision like "Which incubation time is needed to infect half of the epithelial cells with Salmonella?" is based on experience or practicability. A mathematical model can help to answer these questions and improve experimental design. The stochastic Petri net models the cell at different stages of the Salmonella infection. We parameterized the model by a set of experimental data derived from different literature sources. The kinetic parameters of the stochastic Petri net determine the time evolution of the bacterial infection of a cell. The model captures the stochastic variation and heterogeneity of the intracellular Salmonella population of a single cell over time. The stochastic Petri net is a valuable tool to examine the dynamics of Salmonella infections in epithelial cells and generate valuable information for experimental design.
In the last part of this thesis, a novel theoretical method was introduced to perform knockout experiments in silico. The new concept of in silico knockouts is based on the computation of signal flows at steady state and allows the determination of knockout behavior that is comparable to experimental perturbation behavior. In this context, we established the concept of Manatee invariants and demonstrated the suitability of their application for in silico knockouts by reflecting biological dependencies from the signal initiation to the response. As a proof of principle, we applied the proposed concept of in silico knockouts to the Petri net of the xenophagic recognition of Salmonella. To enable the application of in silico knockouts for the scientific community, we implemented the novel method in the software isiKnock. isiKnock allows the automatized performance and visualization of in silico knockouts in signaling pathways expressed in the Petri net formalism. In conclusion, the knockout analysis provides a valuable method to verify computational models of signaling pathways, to detect inconsistencies in the current knowledge of a pathway, and to predict unknown pathway behavior.
In summary, the main contributions of this thesis are the Petri net of the xenophagic capturing of Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium in epithelial cells to study the knockout behavior and the stochastic Petri net of an epithelial cell infected with Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium to analyze the infection dynamics. Moreover, we established a new method for in silico knockouts, including the concept of Manatee invariants and the software isiKnock. The results of these studies are useful to a better understanding of bacterial infections and provide valuable model analysis techniques for the field of computational systems biology.