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The authors relax the standard assumption in the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) literature that exogenous processes are governed by AR(1) processes and estimate ARMA (p,q) orders and parameters of exogenous processes. Methodologically, they contribute to the Bayesian DSGE literature by using Reversible Jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC) to sample from the unknown ARMA orders and their associated parameter spaces of varying dimensions.
In estimating the technology process in the neoclassical growth model using post war US GDP data, they cast considerable doubt on the standard AR(1) assumption in favor of higher order processes. They find that the posterior concentrates density on hump-shaped impulse responses for all endogenous variables, consistent with alternative empirical estimates and the rigidities behind many richer structural models. Sampling from noninvertible MA representations, a negative response of hours to a positive technology shock is contained within the posterior credible set. While the posterior contains significant uncertainty regarding the exact order, the results are insensitive to the choice of data filter; this contrasts with the authors’ ARMA estimates of GDP itself, which vary significantly depending on the choice of HP or first difference filter.
What institutional arrangements for an independent central bank with a price stability mandate promote good policy outcomes when unconventional policies become necessary? Unconventional monetary policy poses challenges. The large scale asset purchases needed to counteract the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates have uncomfortable fiscal and distributional consequences and require central banks to assume greater risks on their balance sheets.
In his paper, Athanasios Orphanides draws lessons from the experience of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) since the late 1990s for the institutional design of independent central banks. He comes to the conclusion that lack of clarity on the precise definition of price stability, coupled with concerns about the legitimacy of large balance sheet expansions, hinders policy: It encourages the central bank to eschew the decisive quantitative easing needed to reflate the economy and instead to accommodate too-low inflation. The BoJ’s experience with the zero lower bound suggests important benefits from a clear definition of price stability as a symmetric 2% goal for inflation, which the Bank adopted in 2013.
Für Zwecke des privaten Konsums werden ständig Gegenwarts- und Zukunftsgüter bewertet und gehandelt. Ein zuverlässiges und umfassendes Maß für die allgemeine Kaufkraft des Geldes und deren Veränderung sollte diesem Grundsachverhalt Rechnung tragen. Im Unterschied zu konventionellen statistischen Verbraucherpreisindizes ist ein ökonomischer Lebenskostenindex intertemporal angelegt, da er die effektiven Konsumgüterpreise (Effektivpreise) über den Planungshorizont der privaten Haushalte bündelt. Ein Preisstabilitätsstandard, der diesen Zusammenhang ausblendet, ist tendenziell verzerrt und leistet einer asymmetrischen Geldpolitik Vorschub.
Effektivpreise sind Gegenwartspreise für künftigen Konsum, sie berücksichtigen Güterpreise und Zinsen bzw. Vermögenspreisänderungen, sind konsumtheoretisch und wohlfahrtsökonomisch fundiert und bilden die zentralen Bausteine für die Modellklasse der ökonomischen Lebenskostenindizes. Nutzentheoretisch gesehen sind Effektivpreise bewerteter Grenznutzen der letzten konsumierten Gütereinheit, und die daraus abgeleiteten Effektiven Inflationsraten sind intertemporale Grenzraten der Substitution.
Die Autoren entwickeln einen intertemporalen Lebenskostenindex auf der Grundlage des Konzepts der Effektivpreise und stellen empirische Zeitreihen und kohortenspezifische Szenarioanalysen für Deutschland vor.
The paper illustrates based on an example the importance of consistency between the empirical measurement and the concept of variables in estimated macroeconomic models. Since standard New Keynesian models do not account for demographic trends and sectoral shifts, the authors proposes adjusting hours worked per capita used to estimate such models accordingly to enhance the consistency between the data and the model. Without this adjustment, low frequency shifts in hours lead to unreasonable trends in the output gap, caused by the close link between hours and the output gap in such models.
The retirement wave of baby boomers, for example, lowers U.S. aggregate hours per capita, which leads to erroneous permanently negative output gap estimates following the Great Recession. After correcting hours for changes in the age composition, the estimated output gap closes gradually instead following the years after the Great Recession.
Über Scheinriesen: Was TARGET-Salden tatsächlich bedeuten : eine finanzökonomische Überprüfung
(2018)
Der TARGET-Saldo der Bundesbank beläuft sich gegenwärtig auf knapp 1 Billion Euro. Kritikern zufolge birgt dieser Umstand hohe Lasten und Risiken für den deutschen Steuerzahler und zeigt, dass Deutschland zu einem „Selbstbedienungsladen“ im Eurosystem geworden sei. Vor diesem Hintergrund erörtert das Papier im Detail, wie TARGET-Salden überhaupt entstehen und was sie finanzökonomisch bedeuten. Die wirtschaftspolitische Analyse kommt zu dem Schluss, dass - anders als von den Kritikern behauptet- unter den Bedingungen einer Währungsunion im Normalbetrieb - TARGET-Salden lediglich Verrechnungssalden ohne weitere Implikationen sind, die aber nützliche Informationen über ökonomisch tieferliegende, regionale Verschiebungen geben können. Unter dem Extremszenario eines Zerfalls der Währungsunion können TARGET-Salden zwar als offene Positionen interpretiert werden, deren spätere Erfüllung würde aber ähnlich dem Brexit von komplizierten politischen Verhandlungen abhängen, sodass über die Werthaltigkeit allenfalls spekuliert werden kann. Sollte man das Extremszenario für bedeutend halten, und politisches Handeln fordern, erscheinen zwei Lösungen sinnvoll. Beide Vorschläge führen zu einer institutionellen Stärkung der Eurozone: i) die Einführung einer Tilgungspraxis, wie sie im US-amerikanischen Fedwire-System angewandt wird. Dabei handelt es sich um eine rein fiktive Tilgung in Form einer Umbuchung auf einem gemeinsamen (Offenmarkt-)Konto bei der EZB; ii) die Bündelung aller monetären Aktivitäten bei der EZB, sodass eine regionale Abgrenzung von Zahlungsvorgängen entfällt (und damit die TARGET-Salden verschwinden), weil alle Banken in direkter Beziehung zu ein und derselben Zentralbank stehen und der Zahlungsverkehr direkt zwischen den beteiligten Banken stattfindet.
Background: Atakora mountains in Benin are a unique but fragile ecosystem, harboring many endemic plant species. The ecosystem is undergoing degradation, and the woody vegetation is dramatically declining due to high anthropogenic actions and recurrent drought. This study aimed to (i) assess the diversity of threatened woody species and (ii) identify their potential substitutes in the three regions of the Atakora mountains namely East Atakora, Central Atakora, and West Atakora.
Methods: The data were collected during expeditions on surveyed localities through semi-structured individual interviews. Free-listing was used to record threatened woody species and which were important and why. Alpha-diversity indices were used to assess diversity of threatened and important threatened woody species. A correspondence analysis was used to determine the reason supporting their importance. Differences in species composition were assessed using analysis of similarities. A number of potential substitutes were compared among species using generalized linear models.
Results: A total of 117 woody species (37 families and 92 genera) were identified. The most prominent families were Fabaceae (19.66%), Combretaceae (12.82%), and Moraceae (10.26%), and the richest genera were Ficus (10 species), Combretum (6), and Terminalia (5). Most threatened species differed across regions (East Atakora, Central Atakora, and West Atakora) and included Afzelia africana, Anogeissus leiocarpa, Borassus aethiopum, Diospyros mespiliformis, Khaya senegalensis, Milicia excelsa, and Pterocarpus erinaceus. Most socio-economically important species (K. senegalensis, Parkia biglobosa, Vitellaria paradoxa, and V. doniana) were used mainly for food, timber, and fuelwood purposes. Old and adult people, and Dendi and Fulfulde sociolinguistic groups had greater knowledge of threatened woody plant species. High intercultural differentiations in species composition were detected between Bariba-Berba and Bariba-Natimba. Knowledge of substitutes also differed across regions with P. erinaceus, Isoberlinia spp., and A. africana being the most cited substitutes.
Conclusion: Basic data was provided here to inform decision and guide efficient management of woody resources. There was evidence that immediate conservation measures are required for some high economic value woody taxa which were critically threatened. Ex-situ conservation of these species while promoting their integration into agroforestry-based systems were recommended. Besides, community-based management programs and community-led initiatives involving knowledgeable people from different horizons will lead to a long-lasting conservation of these threatened resources.
Background: Recently, public and political interest has focused on people living with rare diseases and their health concerns. Due to the large number of different types of rare diseases and the sizable number of patients, taking action to improve the life of those affected is gaining importance. In 2013, the federal government of Germany adopted a national action plan for rare diseases, including the call to establish a central information portal on rare diseases (Zentrales Informationsportal über seltene Erkrankungen, ZIPSE).
Objective: The objective of this study, therefore, was to conduct scientific research on how such a portal must be designed to meet the needs of patients, their families, and medical professionals, and to provide high-quality information for information seekers.
Methods: We chose a 3-step procedure to develop a needs-based prototype of a central information portal. In the first step, we determined the information needs of patients with rare diseases, their relatives, and health care professionals by means of qualitative interviews and their content-analytical evaluation. On the basis of this, we developed the basic structure of the portal. In the second step, we identified quality criteria for websites on rare diseases to ensure that the information linked with ZIPSE meets the quality demands. Therefore, we gathered existing criteria catalogs and discussed them in an expert workshop. In the third step, we implemented and tested the developed prototypical information portal.
Results: A portal page was configured and made accessible on the Web. The structure of ZIPSE was based on the findings from 108 qualitative interviews with patients, their relatives, and health care professionals, through which numerous information needs were identified. We placed particularly important areas of information, such as symptoms, therapy, research, and advisory services, on the start page. Moreover, we defined 13 quality criteria, referring to factors such as author information, creation date, and privacy, enabling links with high-quality information. Moreover, 19 users tested all the developed routines based on usability and comprehensibility. Subsequently, we improved the visual presentation of search results and other important search functions.
Conclusions: The implemented information portal, ZIPSE, provides high-quality information on rare diseases from a central point of access. By integrating the targeted groups as well as different experts on medical information during the construction, the website can assure an improved search for information for users. ZIPSE can also serve as a model for other Web-based information systems in the field of rare diseases.
Registered Report Identifier: RR1-10.2196/7425.
Objective: To conduct subset analyses of SPIRIT-P2 (Standard Protocol Items: Recommendations for Interventional Trials, NCT02349295) to investigate the efficacy and safety of ixekizumab versus placebo in three subgroups of patients with active psoriatic arthritis (PsA) according to the concomitant conventional synthetic disease-modifying antirheumatic drug (cDMARD) received: any background cDMARDs (including methotrexate), background methotrexate only
Methods: Patients were randomised to receive placebo, ixekizumab 80 mg every 4 weeks (IXEQ4W) or every 2 weeks (IXEQ2W). Efficacy and safety were assessed when patients were subdivided according to cDMARD use at baseline. Efficacy was evaluated versus placebo at week 24 by the American College of Rheumatology criteria (ACR20/50), achievement of minimal disease activity (MDA) state, DiseaseActivityIndex for PsA (DAPSA), 28-joint DiseaseActivityScore using C reactive protein (DAS28-CRP), HealthAssessmentQuestionnaire-Disability Index and the 36-item Short-Form health survey physical functioning domain.
Results: Regardless of background cDMARD status, ACR20, ACR50 and MDA response rates were significantly higher than placebo with IXEQ4W or IXEQ2W treatment. Similarly, significant improvements were observed relative to placebo for DAS28-CRP and DAPSA across subgroups. Physical function also significantly improved relative to placebo with IXEQ4W treatment regardless of background cDMARD status and with IXEQ2W alone. Percentages of reported treatment emergent adverse events (AEs), serious AEs (including serious infections) and discontinuations due to AEs in each subgroup were comparable to the overall SPIRIT-P2 population.
Conclusion: Ixekizumab was efficacious in patients with active PsA and previous tumour necrosis factor inhibitor (TNFi)inadequate response or TNFi intolerance treated with ixekizumab alone or when added to cDMARDswith subgroup safety profiles that were consistent with that observed in the overall SPIRIT-P2 population.