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We outline a procedure for consistent estimation of marginal and joint default risk in the euro area financial system. We interpret the latter risk as the intrinsic financial system fragility and derive several systemic fragility indicators for euro area banks and sovereigns, based on CDS prices. Our analysis documents that although the fragility of the euro area banking system had started to deteriorate before Lehman Brothers' file for bankruptcy, investors did not expect the crisis to affect euro area sovereigns' solvency until September 2008. Since then, and especially after November 2009, joint sovereign default risk has outpaced the rise of systemic risk within the banking system.
This paper studies the effect of graduating from college on lifetime earnings. We develop a quantitative model of college choice with uncertain graduation. Departing from much of the literature, we model in detail how students progress through college. This allows us to parameterize the model using transcript data. College transcripts reveal substantial and persistent heterogeneity in students’ credit accumulation rates that are strongly related to graduation outcomes. From this data, the model infers a large ability gap between college graduates and high school graduates that accounts for 54% of the college lifetime earnings premium.
his paper distils three lessons for bank regulation from the experience of the 2009-12 euro-area financial crisis. First, it highlights the key role that sovereign debt exposures of banks have played in the feedback loop between bank and fiscal distress, and inquires how the regulation of banks’ sovereign exposures in the euro area should be changed to mitigate this feedback loop in the future. Second, it explores the relationship between the forbearance of non-performing loans by European banks and the tendency of EU regulators to rescue rather than resolving distressed banks, and asks to what extent the new regulatory framework of the euro-area “banking union” can be expected to mitigate excessive forbearance and facilitate resolution of insolvent banks. Finally, the paper highlights that capital requirements based on the ratio of Tier-1 capital to banks’ risk-weighted assets were massively gamed by large banks, which engaged in various forms of regulatory arbitrage to minimize their capital charges while expanding leverage. This argues in favor of relying on a set of simpler and more robust indicators to determine banks’ capital shortfall, such as book and market leverage ratios.
We study a model where some investors ("hedgers") are bad at information processing, while others ("speculators") have superior information-processing ability and trade purely to exploit it. The disclosure of financial information induces a trade externality: if speculators refrain from trading, hedgers do the same, depressing the asset price. Market transparency reinforces this mechanism, by making speculators' trades more visible to hedgers. As a consequence, issuers will oppose both the disclosure of fundamentals and trading transparency. Issuers may either under- or over-provide information compared to the socially efficient level if speculators have more bargaining power than hedgers, while they never under-provide it otherwise. When hedgers have low financial literacy, forbidding their access to the market may be socially efficient.
Most simulated micro-founded macro models use solely consumer-demand aggregates in order to estimate deep economy-wide preference parameters, which are useful for policy evaluation. The underlying demand-aggregation properties that this approach requires, should be easy to empirically disprove: since household-consumption choices differ for households with more members, aggregation can be rejected if appropriate data violate an affine equation regarding how much individuals benefit from within-household sharing of goods. We develop a survey method that tests the validity of this equation, without utility-estimation restrictions via models. Surprisingly, in six countries, this equation is not rejected, lending support to using consumer-demand aggregates.
Riley (1979)'s reactive equilibrium concept addresses problems of equilibrium existence in competitive markets with adverse selection. The game-theoretic interpretation of the reactive equilibrium concept in Engers and Fernandez (1987) yields the Rothschild-Stiglitz (1976)/Riley (1979) allocation as an equilibrium allocation, however multiplicity of equilibrium emerges. In this note we imbed the reactive equilibrium's logic in a dynamic market context with active consumers. We show that the Riley/Rothschild-Stiglitz contracts constitute the unique equilibrium allocation in any pure strategy subgame perfect Nash equilibrium.
Background: According to current taxonomy only three out of 27 Sinohimalayan leaf warbler species (Phylloscopidae) are considered genetically uniform across their entire breeding range along the Southeastern margin of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, the Buff-barred Warbler (Phylloscopus pulcher) being one of them. Because marked differentiation among Himalayan and Chinese populations has been recently demonstrated for a number of Phylloscopus species (or sister species) we investigated the intraspecific variation of a mitochondrial gene, songs and morphology of P. pulcher in a phylogeographic approach.
Methods: We sequenced a fragment of the mitochondrial cytochrome b, reconstructed haplotype networks and analyzed DNA polymorphism among Himalayan and Chinese populations. We measured time and frequency parameters of two distinct song types and analyzed among population-differentiation in a principal component analysis and a discriminant analysis. We also compared measurements of body size dimensions taken from museum specimens.
Results: The mitochondrial haplotype network (cytb) was divided into two distinct clusters corresponding to geographic origin of samples. Pairwise genetic distances among Himalayan and Chinese mtDNA lineages account for 1.3% which coincides with Pleistocene lineage separation at roughly 650,000 years ago. Genetic diversity is slightly higher in the Chinese part of the species’ range with respect to haplotype and nucleotide diversity while the less diversified Himalayan population lineage shows signs of recent range expansion. The vocal repertoire of P. pulcher comprises two distinct verse types that are combined with short interspersed click notes to long continuous song displays. Trill verse types showed significant differences among regions in almost all measured frequency and time parameters: Chinese males displayed more rapid and more broad-banded trills at a lower pitch. In contrast, warbling verse types showed a distinctively different structure among regions: Himalayan songs consisted of repeated syllables while Chinese songs comprised repetitions of single, long and strongly modulated elements. Subtle morphological differences among specimens from the two study regions could only be confirmed for plumage coloration but not for metric characters.
Conclusions: Based on the genetic and bioacoustic distinctiveness of Chinese Buff-barred Warbler populations, we recommend that the name Phylloscopus pulcher vegetus Bangs, 1913 should be re-validated for this taxon.
Herbaceous ground vegetation is an important pool of biomass and nutrients, which is also used as the major forage source for wild ungulates. Up to now no standard methods exist to estimate herbaceous biomass on a landscape level for temperate forests, which are characterised by deciduous trees with closed canopies. Quantity and quality of the herbaceous forage accessible to herbivores can be estimated from estimated cover in vegetation plot data and information on biomass and element concentrations in plant species. Vegetation was sampled stratified by community types and forest developmental phases in Bavarian Forst National Park, Germany. We adopted the PhytoCalc model to estimate biomass and bioelement stocks from vegetation plot data and adjusted species assignments and absolute levels of biomass to the conditions in the national park. We categorised attractiveness of plant species as forage for red deer (Cervus elaphus) and roe deer (Capreolus capreolus). Multiple controls of total biomass and of plant groups (graminoids, ferns, herbs, Vaccinium, Rubus) were studied by stepwise regression against stand and environmental predictors. Herbaceous mass had a highly skewed distribution in the park, with 75% of plots having less than 231 g*m-2 of biomass or 24 g*m-2 of raw protein. Contributions of plant groups were site-dependent and variable, but decreased in the order Vaccinium-graminoids-Rubus-herbs-ferns. Biomass appeared to be controlled by deciduous tree cover, by total cover of canopy and coarse woody debris and by site quality, with nutrient-poor, high elevation sites having higher herb biomass. As a consequence, montane beech forests offered less forage mass than coniferous communities of high elevations and mires. Stand disturbances by bark beetles and the corresponding forest developmental phases had no systematic effects on total biomass.
The endemic Floridian milliped genus, Floridobolus Causey, 1957, more closely related to tylobolinines in the western United States (US), Mexico, and Guatemala than syntopic spirobolines, is incorporated into Spirobolidae (Spirobolida: Spirobolidea). With taxonomic priority by one year, its monotypic family is reduced to Floridobolinae, n. stat., comprising Floridobolini and Tylobolini, n. stats., the counterpart to Spirobolinae, comprising Spirobolini and Aztecolini, n. tribe; relationships are Floridobolini + (Tylobolini + (Aztecolini + Spirobolini)). Like F. penneri Causey, 1957, 208 km (130 mi) to the south in the Lake Wales Ridge, Polk and Highlands counties (cos.), F. orini n. sp., inhabits “Big Scrub” environments in the Ocala National Forest, Marion Co. Biogeographic reconstructions, compatible with broader hypotheses on the class’ evolutionary history, indicate that, from a presumptive source area in northern Mexico where the subfamilies overlap, spirobolid stock penetrated the “proto-US” four times, once per tribe, before the Western Interior Seaway developed in the Cretaceous Period, Mesozoic Era. Three expansions headed northeastward into future “Appalachia,” from which taxa spread southward as the Seaway receded. Floridobolini, the fi rst invader, had to be in “proto-Georgia” and positioned to penetrate Florida when the sand dunes that comprise the “Central Highlands” emerged from the sea in the Oligocene (Cenozoic), ~25 mya. As sea levels rose and fell, the dunes fragmented into islands and the subcontinuous Floridobolus population was partitioned. The southernmost became F. penneri; F. orini inhabited a northern island; and a graduate student is investigating other insular remnants for additional species. Shortly after Floridobolini began spreading, Hiltonius/ Tylobolini arose and expanded both southward to Guatemala and northwestward to California; Tylobolus Cook, 1904, diverged in the latter area and dispersed northward to Washington and eastward to Utah/Arizona. The third invader, and the second to disperse northeastward, was Aztecolini, which probably eradicated Floridobolini from some of its established range and was partitioned into Mexican (Aztecolus Chamberlin, 1943) and US (Chicobolus Chamberlin, 1947) taxa by the Seaway. The fi nal invader, Spirobolini, dispersed northwestward and northeastward to both the Pacifi c and Atlantic coasts; instead of Trans-Beringia, we prefer penetration of the Asian part of “Asiamerica,” when it temporarily formed during the Cretaceous, to explain the Mongolian fossil genus, Gobiulus Dzik, 1975, herein assigned to Tylobolini, and the occurrence of Spirobolus Brandt, 1833, in China and Taiwan today. In the east, Narceus Rafi nesque, 1820, spread across Appalachia, eradicated most remaining populations of Floridobolus and Chicobolus, and expanded to Maine and Québec after retreat of the Wisconsin glaciation. Chicobolus and Narceus also penetrated earliest Florida; the former established itself in the Central Highlands, spread through the widening peninsula as sea levels fell, and remained on insular refugia when waters rose. Apparently fueled by the different Floridian environments, Narceus underwent time-consuming speciation; consequently, Floridobolus and Chicobolus still survive on the peninsula, and an allopatric population of the latter inhabits coastal South Carolina. However, N. gordanus (Chamberlin, 1943) occurs syntopically with both in peninsular Florida and may be actively eradicating them from their last stronghold. Trigoniulus niger, takahasii, and segmentatus, all by Takakuwa, 1940, are removed from Spirobolidae and returned toTrigoniulidae (Trigoniulidea). New records in the Appendix include the fi rst of Aztecolus from Durango and Jalisco, Mexico.
Background: Unlike metastatic colorectal cancer (CRC) there are to date few reports concerning the predictive value of molecular biomarkers on the clinical outcome in stage II/III CRC patients receiving adjuvant chemotherapy. Aim of this study was to assess the predictive value of proteins related with the EGFR- and VEGFR- signalling cascades in these patients.
Methods: The patients' data examined in this study were from the collective of the 5-FU/FA versus 5-FU/FA/irinotecan phase III FOGT-4 trial. Tumor tissues were stained by immunohistochemistry for VEGF-C, VEGF-D, VEGFR-3, Hif-1 α, PTEN, AREG and EREG expression and evaluated by two independent, blinded investigators. Survival analyses were calculated for all patients receiving adjuvant chemotherapy in relation to expression of all makers above.
Results: Patients with negative AREG and EREG expression on their tumor had a significant longer DFS in comparison to AREG/EREG positive ones (p< 0.05). The benefit on DFS in AREG-/EREG- patients was even stronger in the group that received 5-FU/FA/irinotecan as adjuvant treatment (p=0.002). Patients with strong expression of PTEN profited more in terms of OS under adjuvant treatment containing irinotecan (p< 0.05). Regarding markers of the VEGFR- pathway we found no correlation of VEGF-C- and VEGFR-3 expression with clinical outcome. Patients with negative VEGF-D expression had a trend to live longer when treated with 5-FU/FA (p=0.106). Patients who were negative for Hif-1 α, were disease-free in more than 50% at the end of the study and showed significant longer DFS-rates than those positive for Hif-1 α (p=0.007). This benefit was even stronger at the group treated with 5-FU/FA/irinotecan (p=0.026). Finally, AREG-/EREG-/PTEN+ patients showed a trend to live longer under combined treatment combination.
Conclusions: The addition of irinotecan to adjuvant treatment with 5-FU/FA does not provide OS or DFS benefit in patients with stage II/III CRC. Nevertheless, AREG/EREG negative, PTEN positive and Hif-1 α negative patients might profit significantly in terms of DFS from a treatment containing fluoropyrimidines and irinotecan. Our results suggest a predictive value of these biomarkers concerning adjuvant chemotherapy with 5-FU/FA +/− irinotecan in stage II/III colorectal cancer.