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Under Solvency II, corporate governance requirements are a complementary, but nonetheless essential, element to build a sound regulatory framework for insurance undertakings, also to address risks not specifically mitigated by the sole solvency capital requirements. After recalling the provisions of the second pillar concerning the system of governance, the paper is devoted to highlight the emerging regulatory trends in the corporate governance of insurance firms. Among others, it signals the exceptional extension of the duties and responsibilities assigned to the Board of directors, far beyond the traditional role of both monitoring the chief executive officer, and assessing the overall direction and strategy of the business. However, a better risk governance is not necessarily built on narrow rule-based approaches to corporate governance.
Depending on the point of time and location, insurance companies are subject to different forms of solvency regulation. In modern regulation regimes, such as the future standard Solvency II in the EU, insurance pricing is liberalized and risk-based capital requirements will be introduced. In many economies in Asia and Latin America, on the other hand, supervisors require the prior approval of policy conditions and insurance premiums, but do not conduct risk-based capital regulation. This paper compares the outcome of insurance rate regulation and riskbased capital requirements by deriving stock insurers’ best responses. It turns out that binding price floors affect insurers’ optimal capital structures and induce them to choose higher safety levels. Risk-based capital requirements are a more efficient instrument of solvency regulation and allow for lower insurance premiums, but may come at the cost of investment efforts into adequate risk monitoring systems. The paper derives threshold values for regulator’s investments into risk-based capital regulation and provides starting points for designing a welfare-enhancing insurance regulation scheme.
We study the impact of estimation errors of firms on social welfare. For this purpose, we present a model of the insurance market in which insurers face parameter uncertainty about expected loss sizes. As consumers react to under- and overestimation by increasing and decreasing demand, respectively, insurers require a safety loading for parameter uncertainty. If the safety loading is too small, less risk averse consumers benefit from less informed insurers by speculating on them underestimating expected losses. Otherwise, social welfare increases with insurers’ information. We empirically estimate safety loadings in the US property and casualty insurance market, and show that these are likely to be sufficiently large for consumers to benefit from more informed insurers.
Tail-correlation matrices are an important tool for aggregating risk measurements across risk categories, asset classes and/or business segments. This paper demonstrates that traditional tail-correlation matrices—which are conventionally assumed to have ones on the diagonal—can lead to substantial biases of the aggregate risk measurement’s sensitivities with respect to risk exposures. Due to these biases, decision-makers receive an odd view of the effects of portfolio changes and may be unable to identify the optimal portfolio from a risk-return perspective. To overcome these issues, we introduce the “sensitivity-implied tail-correlation matrix”. The proposed tail-correlation matrix allows for a simple deterministic risk aggregation approach which reasonably approximates the true aggregate risk measurement according to the complete multivariate risk distribution. Numerical examples demonstrate that our approach is a better basis for portfolio optimization than the Value-at-Risk implied tail-correlation matrix, especially if the calibration portfolio (or current portfolio) deviates from the optimal portfolio.
Historical evidence like the global financial crisis from 2007-09 highlights that sector concentration risk can play an important role for the solvency of insurers. However, current microprudential frameworks like the US RBC framework and Solvency II consider only name concentration risk explicitly in their solvency capital requirements for asset concentration risk and neglect sector concentration risk. We show by means of US insurers’ asset holdings from 2009 to 2018 that substantial sectoral asset concentrations exist in the financial, public and real estate sector, and find indicative evidence for a sectoral search for yield behavior. Based on a theoretical solvency capital allocation scheme, we demonstrate that the current regulatory approaches can lead to inappropriate and biased levels of solvency capital for asset concentration risk, and should be revised. Our findings have also important implications on the ongoing discussion of asset concentration risk in the context of macroprudential insurance regulation.
This paper documents that the bond investments of insurance companies transmit shocks from insurance markets to the real economy. Liquidity windfalls from household insurance purchases increase insurers’ demand for corporate bonds. Exploiting the fact that insurers persistently invest in a small subset of firms for identification, I show that these increases in bond demand raise bond prices and lower firms’ funding costs. In response, firms issue more bonds, especially when their bond underwriters are well connected with investors. Firms use the proceeds to raise investment rather than equity payouts. The results emphasize the significant impact of investor demand on firms’ financing and investment activities.
Testing frequency and severity risk under various information regimes and implications in insurance
(2023)
We build on Peter et al. (2017) who examined the benefit of testing frequency risk under various information regimes. We first consider testing only severity risk, and whether the principle of indemnity, i.e. the usual contract term that excludes claims payments above the resulting insured loss, affects the insurance contracts offered and purchased. Under information regimes which are less restrictive (in terms of obtaining and using customer information), it is possible for the insurer to offer different contracts for tested and untested individuals. In the absence of the principle of indemnity, individuals will test their severity risk and a separating equilibrium ensues. With the principle of indemnity, given an actuarially fair pooled contract, individuals will not test for severity under less restrictive information regimes; a pooling equilibrium thus ensues. Under more restrictive information regimes, the insurer offers separating contracts. Individuals will test for severity and purchase appropriate contracts. We also consider testing for both frequency and severity risk. The results here are more varied. The highest gain in efficiency from testing results from one of the more restrictive information regimes. Generally under all information regimes, there is a greater gain in efficiency without the principle of indemnity than with the principle of indemnity.
Gradient capital allocation, also known as Euler allocation, is a technique used to redistribute diversified capital requirements among different segments of a portfolio. The method is commonly employed to identify dominant risks, assessing the risk-adjusted profitability of segments, and installing limit systems. However, capital allocation can be misleading in all these applications because it only accounts for the current portfolio composition and ignores how diversification effects may change with a portfolio restructuring. This paper proposes enhancing the gradient capital allocation by adding “orthogonal convexity scenarios” (OCS). OCS identify risk concentrations that potentially drive portfolio risk and become relevant after restructuring. OCS have strong ties with principal component analysis (PCA), but they are a more general concept and compatible with common empirical patterns of risk drivers being fat-tailed and increasingly dependent in market downturns. We illustrate possible applications of OCS in terms of risk communication and risk limits.
Most insurers in the European Union determine their regulatory capital requirements based on the standard formula of Solvency II. However, there is evidence that the standard formula inaccurately reflects insurers’ risk situation and may provide misleading steering incentives. In the second pillar, Solvency II requires insurers to perform a so-called “Own Risk and Solvency Assessment” (ORSA). In their ORSA, insurers must establish their own risk measurement approaches, including those based on scenarios, in order to derive suitable risk assessments and address shortcomings of the standard formula. The idea of this paper is to identify scenarios in such a way that the standard formula in connection with the ORSA provides a reliable basis for risk management decisions. Using an innovative method for scenario identification, our approach allows for a simple but relatively precise assessment of marginal and even non-marginal portfolio changes. We numerically evaluate the proposed approach in the context of market risk employing an internal model from the academic literature and the Solvency Capital Requirement (SCR) calculation under Solvency II.
I measure the effects of workers’ mobility across regions of different productivity through the lens of a search and matching model with heterogeneous workers and firms estimated with administrative data. In an application to Italy, I find that reallocation of workers to the most productive region boosts productivity at the country level but amplifies differentials across regions. Employment rates decline as migrants foster job competition, and inequality between workers doubles in less productive areas since displacement is particularly severe for low-skill workers. Migration does affect mismatch: mobility favors co-location of agents with similar productivity but within-region rank correlation declines in the most productive region. I show that worker-firm complementarities in production account for 33% of the productivity gains. Place-based programs directed to firms, like incentives for hiring unemployed or creating high productivity jobs, raise employment rates and reduce the gaps in productivity across regions. In contrast, subsidies to attract high-skill workers in the South have limited effects.
Between 2016 and 2022, life insurers in several European countries experienced negative longterm interest rates, which put pressure on their business models. The aim of this paper is to empirically investigate the impact of negative interest rates on the stock performance of life insurers. To measure the sensitivities, I estimate the level, slope, and curvature of the yield curve using the Nelson-Siegel model and empirical proxies. Panel regressions show that the effect of changes in the level is up to three times greater in a negative interest rate environment than in a positive one. Thus, a 1ppt decline in long-term interest rates reduces the stock returns of European life insurers by up to 10ppt when interest rates are below 0%. I also show that the relationship between the level and the sensitivity to interest rates is convex, and that life insurers benefit from rising interest rates across all maturity types.
Homeownership rates differ widely across European countries. We document that part of this variation is driven by differences in the fraction of adults co-residing with their parents. Comparing Germany and Italy, we show that in contrast to homeownership rates per household, homeownership rates per individual are very similar during the first part of the life cycle. To understand these patterns, we build an overlapping-generations model where individuals face uninsurable income risk and make consumption-saving and housing tenure decisions. We embed an explicit intergenerational link between children and parents to capture the three-way trade-off between owning, renting, and co-residing. Calibrating the model to Germany we explore the role of income profiles, housing policies, and the taste for independence and show that a combination of these factors goes a long way in explaining the differential life-cycle patterns of living arrangements between the two countries.
In crisis times, insurance companies might feel the pressure to present an investment portfolio performance that is superior to the market, since investment portfolios back the claims of policyholders and serve as a signal for the claims’ safety. I investigate how a stock market crisis as experienced over the course of the Covid-19 pandemic influences insurance firms’ decisions on the allocation of their corporate bond portfolio. I find that insurers shift their portfolio holdings towards lower credit risk assets as financial market conditions tighten. This tendency seems to be restricted by the liquidity risk of high-yield assets, and the credit risk of lower-rated investment grade assets. Both effects lead to an increase in the fraction of less liquid assets during the crash and the recovery.
The capital requirements of Solvency II allow insurers to make discretionary choices. Besides extensive possibilities regarding the choice of a risk model (ranging between a regulatory prescribed standard formula to a full self-developed internal model), insurers can make use of transitional measures and adjustments, which can have a substantial impact on their reported solvency level. The aim of this article is to study the effect of these long-term guarantee measures and to identify drivers of the discretionary decisions. For this purpose, we first assess the risk profile of 49 European insurers by estimating the sensitivities of their stock returns to movements in market risk drivers, such as interest rates and credit spreads. In a second step, we analyze to what extent insurers’ risk profiles influence their discretionary decisions in the capital requirement calculation. We gather information on discretionary decisions based on hand-collected Solvency II data for the years 2016 to 2020. We find that insurers optimize their reported solvency situation by making discretionary decisions in such a way that capital requirements for material risk drivers are clearly reduced. For instance, we find that the usage of the volatility adjustment is positively related to the interest rate risk as perceived by financial markets, even when controlling for the portion of life insurance in technical provisions. Similarly, the matching adjustment is linked to significantly higher credit risk sensitivities. Our results point out that due to discretionary decisions Solvency II figures can substantially deviate from a market-oriented, risk-based view on insurance companies’ risk situation.
In times of crisis, insurance companies may invest into riskier assets to benefit from expected price recoveries. Using daily stock market data for 34 European insurers, I investigate how a stock market contraction, as experienced during the Covid-19 pandemic, affects insurers’ decision on the allocation of their corporate bond portfolio. I find that insurers shift their portfolio holdings pro-cyclically towards lower credit risk assets in the first month of the market contraction. As the crisis progresses, I find evidence for counter-cyclical investment behavior by insurers, which can neither be explained by credit rating downgrades of held bonds nor by hedging with CDS derivatives. The observed counter-cyclical investment behavior of insurers could be beneficial for the financial system in attenuating price declines, but excessive risk-taking by insurance companies over longer periods can also reinforce stress in the system.
Macro-finance theory predicts that financial fragility builds up when volatility is low. This “volatility paradox’” challenges traditional systemic risk measures. I explore a new dimension of systemic risk, spillover persistence, which is the average time horizon at which a firm’s losses increase future risk in the financial system. Using firm-level data covering more than 30 years and 50 countries, I document that persistence declines when fragility builds up: before crises, during stock market booms, and when banks take more risks. In contrast, persistence increases with loss amplification: during crises and fire sales. These findings support key predictions of recent macrofinance models.
This paper investigates systemic risk in the insurance industry. We first analyze the systemic contribution of the insurance industry vis-à-vis other industries by applying 3 measures, namely the linear Granger causality test, conditional value at risk and marginal expected shortfall, on 3 groups, namely banks, insurers and non-financial companies listed in Europe over the last 14 years. We then analyze the determinants of the systemic risk contribution within the insurance industry by using balance sheet level data in a broader sample. Our evidence suggests that i) the insurance industry shows a persistent systemic relevance over time and plays a subordinate role in causing systemic risk compared to banks, and that ii) within the industry, those insurers which engage more in non-insurance-related activities tend to pose more systemic risk. In addition, we are among the first to provide empirical evidence on the role of diversification as potential determinant of systemic risk in the insurance industry. Finally, we confirm that size is also a significant driver of systemic risk, whereas price-to-book ratio and leverage display counterintuitive results.
We explore how personality traits are related to household borrowing behavior. Using survey data representative for the Netherlands, we consider the Big Five personality traits (openness, conscientiousness, agreeableness, extraversion and neuroticism), as well as the belief that one is master of one’s fate (locus of control). We hypothesize that personality traits can complement as well as substitute financial knowledge of a household. We present three sets of results. First, we find that personality traits are positively correlated with borrowing expectations. Locus of control, extraversion and agreeableness are correlated with informal borrowing expectations, which is the expectation that one can borrow from family and friends. With respect to expectations on the approval of a formal loan application, it is locus of control and conscientiousness that are positively associated. Effect sizes are large and economically meaningful. Second, we find that personality traits are important for borrowing constraints. A more internal locus of control and higher neuroticism are correlated with being denied for credit, as well as discouraged borrowing. Our third set of results reports findings on personality traits and loan regret, and how traits are correlated with dealing with loan troubles. Many households in our sample express regret (21%), but more open, more agreeable and more neurotic individuals are more likely to express regret. Our results are not driven by financial knowledge, time preferences or risk attitudes. Overall these findings imply that non-cognitive traits are important for borrowing behavior of households.
The Federal Reserve has been publishing federal funds rate prescriptions from Taylor rules in its Monetary Policy Report since 2017. The signals from the rules aligned with Fed action on many occasions, but in some cases the Fed opted for a different route. This paper reviews the implications of the rules during the coronavirus pandemic and the subsequent inflation surge and derives projections for the future.
In 2020, the Fed took the negative prescribed rates, which were far below the effective lower bound on the nominal interest rate, as support for extensive and long-lasting quantitative easing. Yet, the calculations overstate the extent of the constraint, because they neglect the supply side effects of the pandemic.
The paper proposes a simple model-based adjustment to the resource gap used by the rules for 2020. In 2021, the rules clearly signaled the need for tightening because of the rise of inflation, yet the Fed waited until spring 2022 to raise the federal funds rate. With the decline of inflation over the course of 2023, the rules’ prescriptions have also come down. They fall below the actual federal funds rate target range in 2024. Several caveats concerning the projections of the interest rate prescriptions are discussed.
This paper addresses the need for transparent sustainability disclosure in the European Auto Asset-Backed Securities (ABS) market, a crucial element in achieving the EU's climate goals. It proposes the use of existing vehicle identifiers, the Type Approval Number (TAN) and the Type-Variant-Version Code (TVV), to integrate loan-level data with sustainability-related vehicle information from ancillary sources. While acknowledging certain challenges, the combined use of TAN and TVV is the optimal solution to allow all stakeholders to comprehensively assess the environmental characteristics of securitised exposure pools in terms of data protection, matching accuracy, and cost-effectiveness.
Diese Forschungsarbeit analysiert die Rolle des Superblock-Konzepts in neoliberalen Stadtpolitiken am Beispiel der Stadt Offenbach am Main. Die Stadt, einst von industrieller Bedeutung, kämpft seit dem Ende des Fordismus mit finanziellen Schwierigkeiten, die zu einer restriktiven Austeritätspolitik geführt haben. Auf der Suche nach einer positiven Imageveränderung und im Wettbewerb um einkommensstarke Bevölkerungsschichten und Unternehmen initiierte Offenbach verschiedene Strategiepapiere und neue Stadtentwicklungsprojekte. Die Idee, den Offenbacher Stadtteil Nordend im Stile eines Superblocks umzugestalten, wird seit kurzem von verschiedenen Akteur*innen in der Stadt diskutiert. Bei Superblocks handelt es sich um eine grundlegende Transformation des Straßenraumes durch die Neugestaltung des Verkehrs in kleinteilige Abschnitte. Der motorisierte Individualverkehr wird umgeleitet und Freiflächen für die kollektive Nutzung entstehen. Die Forschungsarbeit basiert auf sechs qualitativen Expert*innen-Interviews mit verschiedenen Akteur*innen aus Offenbach. Durch die Interviews konnten die Einschätzungen der Expert*innen zum Superblock-Konzept sowie dessen Verhältnis zur Stadtentwicklungspolitik Offenbachs analysiert werden. Sie betonen die grundsätzliche Eignung des Nordends für die Implementierung des Superblock-Konzepts. Als Instrument der Mobilitätswende könnten Superblocks den öffentlichen Raum transformieren, die Lebensqualität steigern und speziell den im Nordend lebenden einkommensschwachen Haushalten zugutekommen. Dennoch zeigt sich in den Interviews eine Ambivalenz zum Superblock-Konzept im Kontext der Stadtentwicklungspolitik, insbesondere im Hinblick auf finanzielle Herausforderungen und Probleme der Umsetzung. Deutlich wird die prekäre finanzielle Situation Offenbachs im Kontext der Neoliberalisierung des Städtischen, deren Auswirkungen sich an den Aushandlungen über das Konzept der Superblocks exemplarisch äußert. Die Studie zeigt die Widersprüchlichkeiten eines innovativen Mobilitätskonzeptes innerhalb neoliberaler Stadtpolitiken auf und fragt nach dem Zusammenhang von Mobilitätsforschung und kritischer Stadtforschung.
This research focuses on the cost of financing green projects on the primary bond market and tests for a potential price differential between green bonds issued by government entities and those issued by supranational and private sector issuers. Our findings indicate that government entities benefit from more favorable pricing conditions worldwide. This advantage is growing over time and particularly pronounced for sovereigns and municipal authorities. Our analysis also reveals that country-specific factors, such as strong political commitment to address climate change, low income level and high degree of indebtedness are significant predictors of the pricing spread across bonds.
Contagious stablecoins?
(2023)
Can competing stablecoins produce efficient and stable outcomes? We study competition among stablecoins pegged to a stable currency. They are backed by interest-bearing safe assets and can be redeemed with the issuer or traded in a secondary market. If an issuer sticks to an appropriate investment and redemption rule, its stablecoin is invulnerable to runs. Since an issuer must pay interest on its stablecoin if other issuers also pay interest, competing interest-bearing stablecoins, however, are contagious and can render the economy inefficient and unstable. The efficient allocation is uniquely implemented when regulation prevents interest payments on stablecoins.
In this study, we unpack the ESG ratings of four prominent agencies in Europe and find that (i) each single E, S, G pillar explains the overall ESG score differently,(ii) there is a low co-movement between the three E, S, G pillars and (iii) there are specific ESG Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) that are driving these ratings more than others. We argue that such discrepancies might mislead firms about their actual ESG status, potentially leading to cherry-picking areas for improvement, thus raising questions about the accuracy and effectiveness of ESG evaluations in both explaining sustainability and driving capital toward sustainable companies.
We document the individual willingness to act against climate change and study the role of social norms in a large sample of US adults. Individual beliefs about social norms positively predict pro-climate donations, comparable in strength to universal moral values and economic preferences such as patience and reciprocity. However, we document systematic misperceptions of social norms. Respondents vastly underestimate the prevalence of climate-friendly behaviors and norms. Correcting these misperceptions in an experiment causally raises individual willingness to act against climate change as well as individual support for climate policies. The effects are strongest for individuals who are skeptical about the existence and threat of global warming.
Despite a number of helpful changes, including the adoption of an inflation target, the Fed’s monetary policy strategy proved insufficiently resilient in recent years. While the Fed eased policy appropriately during the pandemic, it fell behind the curve during the post-pandemic recovery. During 2021, the Fed kept easing policy while the inflation outlook was deteriorating and the economy was growing considerably faster than the economy’s natural growth rate—the sum of the Fed’s 2% inflation goal and the growth rate of potential output.
The resilience of the Fed’s monetary policy strategy could be enhanced, and such errors be avoided with guidance from a simple natural growth targeting rule that prescribes that the federal funds rate during each quarter be raised (cut) when projected nominal income growth exceeds (falls short) of the economy’s natural growth rate. An illustration with real-time data and forecasts since the early 1990s shows that Fed policy has not persistently deviated from this simple rule with the notable exception of the period coinciding with the Fed’s post-pandemic policy error.
In its first ten years (2014-2023), the banking union was successful in its prudential agenda but failed spectacularly in its underlying objective: establishing a single banking market in the euro area. This goal is now more important than ever, and easier to attain than at any time in the last decade. To make progress, cross-border banks should receive a specific treatment within general banking union legislation. Suggestions are made on how to make such regulatory carve-out effective and legally sound.
The Eurosystem and the Deutsche Bundesbank will incur substantial losses in 2023 that are likely to persist for several years. Due to the massive purchases of securities in the last 10 years, especially of government bonds, the banks' excess reserves have risen sharply. The resulting high interest payments to the banks since the turnaround in monetary policy, with little income for the large-scale securities holdings, led to massive criticism. The banks were said to be making "unfair" profits as a result, while the fiscal authorities had to forego the previously customary transfers of central bank profits. Populist demands to limit bank profits by, for example, drastically increasing the minimum reserve ratios in the Eurosystem to reduce excess reserves are creating new severe problems and are neither justified nor helpful. Ultimately, the EU member states have benefited for a very long time from historically low interest rates because of the Eurosystem's extraordinary loose monetary policy and must now bear the flip side consequences of the massive expansion of central bank balance sheets during the necessary period of monetary policy normalisation.
The Åland Islands archipelago enjoys a special international status sui generis, which essentially encompasses demilitarisation, neutralisation, and autonomy. This status is guaranteed under international law by the agreements of 1921, 1940, and 1947, which are still in force. Furthermore, there are convincing reasons to assume that the Åland Islands regime has grown into European customary law. By virtue of her international (treaty) obligations, Finland cannot unilaterally change this status under the present conditions, irrespective of domestic (constitutional) decisions. While integration into NATO’s collective defence system and the EU’s Common Security and Defence Policy structures is compatible with the special status of the Åland Islands, care must be taken by Finland and her partners to ensure that the obligations arising from these developments are fulfilled in accordance with the demilitarised and neutralised status of the archipelago. This includes that the use by Finnish troops for preventive defence, beyond the exceptions laid down in the 1921 Åland Agreement, is only permitted in the case (of threat) of an immediate and clearly identifiable attack.
The autonomous character of the Åland Islands was established under a League of Nations dispute settlement and implemented, inter alia, in Finnish legislation. Its essence even grew into customary law. The arrangements of 1921, however, do not constitute a bilateral treaty between Finland and Sweden. The UN assumes that the international mechanism to protect Åland’s autonomy did not become obsolete with the demise of the League of Nations, but was only “suspended until such time as an express decision has been taken by the United Nations to put it back into force”. A corresponding proposal could be submitted, in any case, both by Finland and/or Sweden or possibly even by any other UN member state, for discussion in the Sixth Committee. However, the final decision to re-activate this special mechanism would have to be adopted by the UN General Assembly.
EU Law applies to the Åland Islands in principle; however, Finland’s Accession Treaty to the EU to which Protocol No. 2 on the Åland Islands was annexed, established a number of specific rules which are still in force today. This, most notably, results in the limited application of value added tax and excise duties in the Åland Islands. Therefore, the rules on customs procedures apply with respect to the movement of goods to and from the Åland Islands. In addition, other provisions of Union law, in particular those relating to fundamental freedoms and European state aid law, may be relevant in view of the special fiscal status of the Åland Islands. However, assessing individual cases would require further information and in-depth studies. Irrespective of the requirements set out in the said Protocol, the EU is obliged to respect the national identity of Member States pursuant to Article 4 para. 2 TEU; this obligation includes respect for the special status of the Åland Islands under both international and Finnish constitutional law.
Central banks sowing the seeds for a green financial sector? NGFS membership and market reactions
(2024)
In December 2017, during the One Planet Summit in Paris, a group of eight central banks and supervisory authorities launched the “Network for Greening the Financial Sector” (NGFS) to address challenges and risks posed by climate change to the global financial system. Until 06/2023 an additional 69 central banks from all around the world have joined the network. We find that the propensity to join the network can be described as a function in the country’s economic development (e.g., GDP per capita), national institutions (e.g., central bank independence), and performance of the central bank on its mandates (e.g., price stability and output gap). Using an event study design to examine consequences of network expansions in capital markets, we document that a difference portfolio that is long in clean energy stocks and short in fossil fuel stocks benefits from an enlargement of the NGFS. Overall, our results suggest that an increasing number of central banks and supervisory authorities are concerned about climate change and willing to go beyond their traditional objectives, and that the capital market believes they will do so.
Eine finalisierte Fassung des Beitrags wird 2024 in einem von Burchard/Schmitt-Leonardy/Singelnstein/Zabel herausgegebenen Sammelband („Alternativen zum Strafrecht“) erscheinen.
Im Zentrum des Beitrags steht jedoch nicht der Versuch, positiv Alternativen zum oder im Strafrecht zu formulieren. Vielmehr ist der Begriff der Alternativlosigkeit erkenntnisleitend, konkret die Identifizierung gesellschaftlich-politischer Wirkmächte und innerstrafrechtlicher Deutungsmuster, die eine (auch) strafrechtliche Bewältigung der durch den menschengemachten Klimawandel aufgeworfenen Konflikte alternativlos erscheinen lassen können.
Dazu wird die jüngst aufgekommene Debatte um ein Klimaschutzstrafrecht aus einer zukunftssoziologischen und strafrechtswissenschaftlichen Perspektive analysiert. Im Zentrum des Beitrags steht die These, dass sich gerade die Verbindung von katastrophischen Zukunftsvorstellungen – hier erschlossen über den zukunftssoziologischen Schlüsselbegriff der Imagination und deskriptiv-analytisch als „Klimakatastrophismus“ bezeichnet – und Exzeptionalisierungen des Strafrechts als Treiber in die imaginative Sackgasse der Alternativlosigkeit erweist.
Die verdichtete Imagination, das die Zukunfts eine Katastrophe sei („Klimakatastrophismus“), befördert als ein an Boden gewinnendes kollektives Deutungsmuster eine intensivierte Sozialkontrolle und Punitivität.
Der kriminalpolitisch expansive Kurs einer mit radikalisierten Selbsterhaltungsfragen konfrontierten Gesellschaft scheint in gesellschaftlich wie dogmatisch tief verankerten Exzeptionalisierungen des Strafrechts – wie der Zuschreibung, (nur) strafwürdige Sozialschädlichkeit adressieren zu dürfen, dies aufgrund einer regulativen und expressiven Ausnahmestellung aber auch in besonderer Weise zu können (oder zu müssen) – durchaus Widerhall zu finden. Dadurch entsteht ein strafrechtsexpansives (weil rechtfertigendes) Momentum, das der ohnehin in der Herausbildung begriffenen Legalisierung eines Klimaschutzstrafrechts Vorschub leistet.
Es entspricht den vornehmen Aufgaben der Strafrechtswissenschaft, diesen Entwicklungen prospektiv vorauszugreifen, sie aufzuklären und kritisch zu wenden – gerade im Hinblick auf die Gegenläufigkeit und Brüchigkeit gesellschaftlicher Entwicklungen oder die Kontingenz eines als politisch gelesenen Strafrechts. Eine kritische Strafrechtswissenschaft darf sich dabei nicht allein, allemal nicht unreflektiert auf tradierte Formen der Strafrechtsbegrenzung zurückziehen.
The pricing of digital art
(2023)
The intersection of recent advancements in generative artificial intelligence and blockchain technology has propelled digital art into the spotlight. Digital art pricing recognizes that owners derive utility beyond the artwork’s inherent value. We incorporate the consumption utility associated with digital art and model the stochastic discount factor and risk premiums. Furthermore, we conduct a calibration analysis to analyze the effects of shifts in the real and digital economy. Higher returns are required in a digital market upswing due to increased exposure to systematic risk and digital art prices are especially responsive to fluctuations in business cycles within digital markets.
Can consumption-based mechanisms generate positive and time-varying real term premia as we see in the data? I show that only models with time-varying risk aversion or models with high consumption risk can independently produce these patterns. The latter explanation has not been analysed before with respect to real term premia, and it relies on a small group of investors exposed to high consumption risk. Additionally, it can give rise to a “consumption-based arbitrageur” story of term premia. In relation to preferences, I consider models with both time-separable and recursive utility functions. Specifically for recursive utility, I introduce a novel perturbation solution method in terms of the intertemporal elasticity of substitution. This approach has not been used before in such models, it is easy to implement, and it allows a wide range of values for the parameter of intertemporal elasticity of substitution.
The complexities of geopolitical events, financial and fiscal crises, and the ebb and flow of personal life circumstances can weigh heavily on individuals’ minds as they make critical economic decisions. To investigate the impact of cognitive load on such decisions, the authors conducted an incentivized online experiment involving a representative sample of 2,000 French households. The results revealed that exposure to a taxing and persistent cognitive load significantly reduced consumption, particularly for individuals under the threat of furlough, while simultaneously increasing their account balances, particularly for those not facing such employment uncertainty. These effects were not driven by supply constraints or a worsening of credit constraints. Instead, cognitive load primarily affected the optimality of the chosen policy rules and impaired the ability of the standard economic model to accurately predict consumption patterns, although this effect was less pronounced among college-educated subjects
We investigate how unconventional monetary policy, via central banks’ purchases of corporate bonds, unfolds in credit-saturated markets. While this policy results in a loosening of credit market conditions as intended by policymakers, we report two unintended side effects. First, the policy impacts the allocation of credit among industries. Affected banks reallocate loans from investment-grade firms active on bond markets almost entirely to real estate asset managers. Other industries do not obtain more loans, particularly real estate developers and construction firms. We document an increase in real estate prices due to this policy, which fuels real estate overvaluation. Second, more loan write-offs arise from lending to these firms, and banks are not compensated for this risk by higher interest rates. We document a drop in bank profitability and, at the same time, a higher reliance on real estate collateral. Our findings suggest that central banks’ quantitative easing has substantial adverse effects in credit-saturated economies.
We conduct a field experiment with clients of a German universal bank to explore the impact of peer information on sustainable retail investments. Our results show that infor-mation about peers’ inclination towards sustainable investing raises the amount allocated to stock funds labeled sustainable, when communicated during a buying decision. This effect is primarily driven by participants initially underestimating peers’ propensity to invest sustainably. Further, treated individuals indicate an increased interest in addi-tional information on sustainable investments, primarily on risk and return expectations. However, when analyzing account-level portfolio holding data over time, we detect no spillover effects of peer information on later sustainable investment decisions.
Many consumers care about climate change and other externalities associated with their purchases. We analyze the behavior and market effects of such “socially responsible consumers” in three parts. First, we develop a flexible theoretical framework to study competitive equilibria with rational consequentialist consumers. In violation of price taking, equilibrium feedback non-trivially dampens a consumer’s mitigation efforts, undermining responsible behavior. This leads to a new type of market failure, where even consumers who fully “internalize the externality” overconsume externality-generating goods. At the same time, socially responsible consumers change the relative effectiveness of taxes, caps, and other policies in lowering the externality. Second, since consumer beliefs about and preferences over dampening play a crucial role in our framework, we investigate them empirically via a tailored survey. Consistent with our model, consumers are predominantly consequentialist, and on average believe in dampening. Inconsistent with our model, however, many consumers fail to anticipate dampening. Third, therefore, we analyze how such “naive” consumers modify our theoretical conclusions. Naive consumers behave more responsibly than rational consumers in a single-good economy, but may behave less responsibly in a multi-good economy with cross-market spillovers. A mix of naive and rational consumers may yield the worst outcomes.
Urbane Ordnungen der (Post-)Migration : Staatsrassismus in der (neoliberalen) "Stadt der Vielfalt"
(2023)
In Städten ist die (post)migrantische Gesellschaft verortet. Obwohl Menschen mit (familiären) Migrationsgeschichten große Teile der Stadtbevölkerung stellen – bei Kindern längst in der Mehrheit –, birgt diese Vielfalt keine gleichen Rechte: Gesellschaft und Ökonomie sind von rassistischen Ordnungen geprägt und der Staat ignoriert dies oder trägt dazu bei. Mathias Rodatz zeigt am Beispiel der Stadt Frankfurt am Main, wie aktuelle städtische Vielfaltspolitiken eine andere, gleichberechtigte Stadt versprechen – und unter neoliberalen Umständen doch ins Leere laufen. Er theoretisiert sie als Politiken transnationaler Stadtbürgerschaft, deren Potenzial zu einer tatsächlichen Herausforderung des Staatsrassismus in der Stadt es noch zu realisieren gilt.
This paper investigates stock market reaction to greenwashing by analyzing a new channel whereby companies change their names to green-related ones (i.e., names that evoke green and sustainable sentiments) to persuade the public that their activities are green. The findings reveal a striking positive stock price reaction to the announcement of corporate name changes to green-related names only for companies not involved in green activities at the time of the announcement. However, over an extended period of time, companies unrelated to green activities experience substantial negative abnormal returns if they fail to align their operational focus with the new name after the change.
How does group identity affect belief formation? To address this question, we conduct a series of online experiments with a representative sample of individuals in the US. Using the setting of the 2020 US presidential election, we find evidence of intergroup preference across three distinct components of the belief formation cycle: a biased prior belief, avoid-ance of outgroup information sources, and a belief-updating process that places greater (less) weight on prior (new) information. We further find that an intervention reducing the salience of information sources decreases outgroup information avoidance by 50%. In a social learn-ing context in wave 2, we find participants place 33% more weight on ingroup than outgroup guesses. Through two waves of interventions, we identify source utility as the mechanism driving group effects in belief formation. Our analyses indicate that our observed effects are driven by groupy participants who exhibit stable and consistent intergroup preferences in both allocation decisions and belief formation across all three waves. These results suggest that policymakers could reduce the salience of group and partisan identity associated with a policy to decrease outgroup information avoidance and increase policy uptake.
This paper applies structure preserving doubling methods to solve the matrix quadratic underlying the recursive solution of linear DSGE models. We present and compare two Structure-Preserving Doubling Algorithms ( SDAs) to other competing methods – the QZ method, a Newton algorithm, and an iterative Bernoulli approach – as well as the related cyclic and logarithmic reduction algorithms. Our comparison is completed using nearly 100 different models from the Macroeconomic Model Data Base (MMB) and different parameterizations of the monetary policy rule in the medium scale New Keynesian model of Smets and Wouters (2007) iteratively. We find that both SDAs perform very favorably relative to QZ, with generally more accurate solutions computed in less time. While we collect theoretical convergence results that promise quadratic convergence rates to a unique stable solution, the algorithms may fail to converge when there is a breakdown due to singularity of the coefficient matrices in the recursion. One of the proposed algorithms can overcome this problem by an appropriate (re)initialization. This SDA also performs particular well in refining solutions of different methods or from nearby parameterizations.
Whatever it takes to understand a central banker : embedding their words using neural networks
(2023)
Dictionary approaches are at the forefront of current techniques for quantifying central bank communication. In this paper, the author propose a novel language model that is able to capture subtleties of messages such as one of the most famous sentences in central bank communications when ECB President Mario Draghi stated that "within [its] mandate, the ECB is ready to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro".
The authors utilize a text corpus that is unparalleled in size and diversity in the central bank communication literature, as well as introduce a novel approach to text quantication from computational linguistics. This allows them to provide high-quality central bank-specific textual representations and demonstrate their applicability by developing an index that tracks deviations in the Fed's communication towards inflation targeting. Their findings indicate that these deviations in communication significantly impact monetary policy actions, substantially reducing the reaction towards inflation deviation in the US.
Im Rahmen des Maßnahmenpakets zur Förderung fahrradfreundlicher Infrastruktur wurde der Frankfurter Grüneburgweg zur Fahrradstraße umgebaut. Mit Fokus auf Gewerbetreibende wurde zwischen März und April 2023 eine Studie zu den Auswirkungen der Fahrradstraße auf dem Grüneburgweg im Frankfurter Westend durchgeführt. Insgesamt wurden 12 Interviews mit ortsansässigen Einzelhandel- und Gastronomiebetreiber:innen geführt. Im Zentrum standen dabei die Auswirkungen der Fahrradstraße auf die geschäftlichen Aktivitäten sowie Einflussfaktoren der Akzeptanz solcher Maßnahmen. Es konnte herausgearbeitet werden, dass die Fahrradstraße aus Sicht der ansässigen Gewerbetreibenden einen negativen Einfluss auf die Erreichbarkeit des Grüneburgwegs hat. Dies geht laut den befragten Gewerbetreibenden mit Umsatzverlusten, einem Rückgang an Kund:innen und Problemen mit der Warenlieferung einher. Ferner wird von einigen Gewerbetreibenden kritisiert, nicht rechtzeitig seitens der Stadt über den Umbau informiert worden zu sein und kein Mitspracherecht bei der Gestaltung der Fahrradstraße zu haben. Die von vielen Gewerbetreibenden wahrgenommenen Auswirkungen auf ihre geschäftlichen Aktivitäten, ihre Einbeziehung in den Planungs- und Umbauprozess sowie ihr eigenes Mobilitätsverhalten sind zentrale Einflussfaktoren für die Akzeptanz der Fahrradstraße. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass viele Gewerbetreibende zwar eine positive Einstellung zur Fahrradstraße haben, jedoch den Grüneburgweg nicht als einen geeigneten Standort für eine Fahrradstraße halten. Aus den Ergebnissen lässt sich schließen, dass für künftige Umgestaltungen besonders auf eine gute Kommunikation der Stadt mit den Gewerbetreibenden geachtet werden muss.
Standard applications of the consumption-based asset pricing model assume that goods and services within the nondurable consumption bundle are substitutes. We estimate substitution elasticities between different consumption bundles and show that households cannot substitute energy consumption by consumption of other nondurables. As a consequence, energy consumption affects the pricing function as a separate factor. Variation in energy consumption betas explains a large part of the premia related to value, investment, and operating profitability. For example, value stocks are typically more energy-intensive than growth stocks and thus riskier, since they suffer more from the oil supply shocks that also affect households.
We propose a model with mean-variance foreign investors who exhibit a convex disutility associated to brown bond holdings. The model predicts that bond green premia should be smaller in economies with a closer financial account and highly volatile exchange rates. This happens because foreign intermediaries invest relatively less in such economies, and this lowers the marginal disutility of investing in polluting activities. We find strong empirical evidence in favor of this hypothesis using a global bond market dataset. Exchange rate volatility and financial account openness are thus able to explain the higher financing costs of green projects in emerging markets relative to advanced economies, especially when green bonds are denominated in local currency: a disadvantage that we can call the "green sin" of emerging economies.
Der Beitrag bietet eine Einführung in das Thema „Vertrauen als Topos der Plattformregulierung“. Dazu wird in einem ersten Schritt das allgemeine Verhältnis zwischen dem sozialen Tatbestand „Vertrauen“ und dem Recht als das einer komplementären, wechselseitigen Wirkungsverstärkung beschrieben. Im Hinblick auf die vertrauensfördernde Rolle des Rechts wird in einem zweiten Schritt zwischen der Funktion des Vertrauens bzw. der Vertrauenswürdigkeit als Tatbestandselement einer Vorschrift und den hieran geknüpften Rechtsfolgen unterschieden. Auf der Basis dieser Grundlagen gibt der Aufsatz in einem dritten Schritt einen Überblick über Bezugnahmen auf „Vertrauen“ in der deutschen und europäischen Plattformregulierung seit 2015. Hierzu zählen sektorale Regelungen gegen Hasskriminalität und Desinformation sowie zum Schutz des Urheberrechts, die 2022 in den horizontal angelegten Digital Services Act mündeten, der ein insgesamt „vertrauenswürdiges Online-Umfeld“ gewährleisten soll. Viertens stellt der Beitrag ein abstrakt-analytisches Konzept des Vertrauens vor, das sich gut zur Analyse der aufgezählten Vertrauensbeziehungen und ihrer rechtlichen Regelungen eignet. Ein abschließender Ausblick deutet die Proliferation des Vertrauenstopos als Ausdruck einer Vertrauenskrise im digitalen Zeitalter. Die erstrebte Vertrauenswürdigkeit des Online-Umfelds bildet ein normatives Minimum, das über gesetzliche Verhaltenspflichten und Privilegien für vertrauenswürdige Akteure der Zivilgesellschaft erreicht werden soll. Ob dies gelingt und überhaupt wünschenswert ist, ist freilich offen. Die juristische Auseinandersetzung mit dem Topos des Vertrauens in der Digital- und Plattformregulierung hat gerade erst begonnen.
This study looks at potential windfall profits for the four banking acquisitions in 2023. Based on accounting figures, an FT article states that a total of USD 44bn was left on the table. We see accounting figures as a misleading analysis. By estimating marked-based cumulative abnormal returns (CAR), we find positive abnormal returns in all four cases which when made quantifiable, are around half of the FT’s accounting figures. Furthermore, we argue that transparent auctions with enough bidders should be preferred to negotiated bank sales.
This document was provided/prepared by the Economic Governance and EMU Scrutiny Unit at the request of the ECON Committee.
This paper develops and implements a backward and forward error analysis of and condition numbers for the numerical stability of the solutions of linear dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. Comparing seven different solution methods from the literature, I demonstrate an economically significant loss of accuracy specifically in standard, generalized Schur (or QZ) decomposition based solutions methods resulting from large backward errors in solving the associated matrix quadratic problem. This is illustrated in the monetary macro model of Smets and Wouters (2007) and two production-based asset pricing models, a simple model of external habits with a readily available symbolic solution and the model of Jermann (1998) that lacks such a symbolic solution - QZ-based numerical solutions miss the equity premium by up to several annualized percentage points for parameterizations that either match the chosen calibration targets or are nearby to the parameterization in the literature. While the numerical solution methods from the literature failed to give any indication of these potential errors, easily implementable backward-error metrics and condition numbers are shown to successfully warn of such potential inaccuracies. The analysis is then performed for a database of roughly 100 DSGE models from the literature and a large set of draws from the model of Smets and Wouters (2007). While economically relevant errors do not appear pervasive from these latter applications, accuracies that differ by several orders of magnitude persist.
Methodenbericht zur Haushaltsbefragung "Mobilität im Quartier" in Frankfurt am Main und Darmstadt
(2023)
Mit dem Ziel, die Zustimmung der Bevölkerung zu verschiedenen verkehrspolitischen Maßnahmen im Bereich des Parkraummanagements zu ermitteln, wurde im März 2022 eine quantitative Haushaltsbefragung (N=1.186) in acht Quartieren in Darmstadt und Frankfurt am Main durchgeführt. Insgesamt wurden je Quartier 600 Fragebögen verteilt und ein Rücklauf von 25% erzielt. Die Stichprobenauswahl erfolgte dabei mithilfe des Random-Route-Verfahrens und der Last-Birthday-Methode. Die Befragung „Mobilität im Quartier“ wurde im Rahmen des BMBF-geförderten Projektes QuartierMobil 2: Persistenz und Dynamik urbaner Mobilität – Strategien zur Zukunft des städtischen Parkens sowie alternativer Mobilitätsangebote durchgeführt und knüpft an Erkenntnissen aus der ersten Projektphase (QuartierMobil, 2017-2020) an. Im Methodenbericht werden zunächst der Projektkontext und die thematischen Schwerpunkte des Fragebogens vorgestellt. Anschließend werden die Auswahl der Stichprobe, die Durchführung der Befragung sowie der Rücklauf und das Vorgehen bei der Datenaufbereitung beschrieben. Zuletzt wird die Struktur der Stichprobe dargestellt und mit amtlichen Daten der beiden Städte Darmstadt und Frankfurt am Main verglichen.
A novel spatial autoregressive model for panel data is introduced, which incor-porates multilayer networks and accounts for time-varying relationships. Moreover, the proposed approach allows the structural variance to evolve smoothly over time and enables the analysis of shock propagation in terms of time-varying spillover effects.
The framework is applied to analyse the dynamics of international relationships among the G7 economies and their impact on stock market returns and volatilities. The findings underscore the substantial impact of cooperative interactions and highlight discernible disparities in network exposure across G7 nations, along with nuanced patterns in direct and indirect spillover effects.
In his speech at the conference „The SNB and its Watchers“, Otmar Issing, member of the ECB Governing Council from its start in 1998 until 2006, takes a look back at more than twenty years of the conference series „The ECB and Its Watchers“. In June 1999, Issing established this format together with Axel Weber, then Director of the Center for Financial Studies, to discuss the monetary policy strategy of the newly founded central bank with a broad circle of participants, that is academics, bank economists and members of the media on a „neutral ground“. At the annual conference, the ECB and its representatives would play an active role and engage in a lively exchange of view with the other participants. Over the years, Volker Wieland took over as organizer of the conference series, which also was adopted by other central banks. In his contribution at the second conference „The SNB and its Watchers“, Issing summarizes the experience gained from over twenty years of the ECB Watchers Conference.
Der Beitrag führt in das sozialpsychologische Phänomen des Gruppendenkens ein. Kennzeichen und Gegenstrategien werden anhand von Zeugenaussagen vor dem Wirecard-Untersuchungsausschuss am Beispiel des Aufsichtsrats illustriert. Normative Implikationen de lege ferenda schließen sich an. Sie betreffen unabhängige Mitglieder (auch auf der Arbeitnehmerbank), Direktinformationsrechte im Unternehmen (unter Einschluss von Hinweisgebern) und den Investorendialog (auch mit Leerverkäufern).
Investors' return expectations are pivotal in stock markets, but the reasoning behind these expectations remains a black box for economists. This paper sheds light on economic agents' mental models -- their subjective understanding -- of the stock market, drawing on surveys with the US general population, US retail investors, US financial professionals, and academic experts. Respondents make return forecasts in scenarios describing stale news about the future earnings streams of companies, and we collect rich data on respondents' reasoning. We document three main results. First, inference from stale news is rare among academic experts but common among households and financial professionals, who believe that stale good news lead to persistently higher expected returns in the future. Second, while experts refer to the notion of market efficiency to explain their forecasts, households and financial professionals reveal a neglect of equilibrium forces. They naively equate higher future earnings with higher future returns, neglecting the offsetting effect of endogenous price adjustments. Third, a series of experimental interventions demonstrate that these naive forecasts do not result from inattention to trading or price responses but reflect a gap in respondents' mental models -- a fundamental unfamiliarity with the concept of equilibrium.
Shallow meritocracy
(2023)
Meritocracies aspire to reward hard work and promise not to judge individuals by the circumstances into which they were born. However, circumstances often shape the choice to work hard. I show that people's merit judgments are "shallow" and insensitive to this effect. They hold others responsible for their choices, even if these choices have been shaped by unequal circumstances. In an experiment, US participants judge how much money workers deserve for the effort they exert. Unequal circumstances disadvantage some workers and discourage them from working hard. Nonetheless, participants reward the effort of disadvantaged and advantaged workers identically, regardless of the circumstances under which choices are made. For some participants, this reflects their fundamental view regarding fair rewards. For others, the neglect results from the uncertain counterfactual. They understand that circumstances shape choices but do not correct for this because the counterfactual—what would have happened under equal circumstances—remains uncertain.
This paper studies the macro-financial implications of using carbon prices to achieve ambitious greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction targets. My empirical evidence shows a 0.6% output loss and a rise of 0.3% in inflation in response to a 1% shock on carbon policy. Furthermore, I also observe financial instability and allocation effects between the clean and highly polluted energy sectors. To have a better prediction of medium and long-term impact, using a medium-large macro-financial DSGE model with environmental aspects, I show the recessionary effect of an ambitious carbon price implementation to achieve climate targets, a 40% reduction in GHG emission causes a 0.7% output loss while reaching a zero-emission economy in 30 years causes a 2.6% output loss. I document an amplified effect of the banking sector during the transition path. The paper also uncovers the beneficial role of pre-announcements of carbon policies in mitigating inflation volatility by 0.2% at its peak, and our results suggest well-communicated carbon policies from authorities and investing to expand the green sector. My findings also stress the use of optimal green monetary and financial policies in mitigating the effects of transition risk and assisting the transition to a zero-emission world. Utilizing a heterogeneous approach with macroprudential tools, I find that optimal macroprudential tools can mitigate the output loss by 0.1% and investment loss by 1%. Importantly, my work highlights the use of capital flow management in the green transition when a global cooperative solution is challenging.
Measuring and reducing energy consumption constitutes a crucial concern in public policies aimed at mitigating global warming. The real estate sector faces the challenge of enhancing building efficiency, where insights from experts play a pivotal role in the evaluation process. This research employs a machine learning approach to analyze expert opinions, seeking to extract the key determinants influencing potential residential building efficiency and establishing an efficient prediction framework. The study leverages open Energy Performance Certificate databases from two countries with distinct latitudes, namely the UK and Italy, to investigate whether enhancing energy efficiency necessitates different intervention approaches. The findings reveal the existence of non-linear relationships between efficiency and building characteristics, which cannot be captured by conventional linear modeling frameworks. By offering insights into the determinants of residential building efficiency, this study provides guidance to policymakers and stakeholders in formulating effective and sustainable strategies for energy efficiency improvement.
The forward guidance trap
(2023)
This paper examines the policy experience of the Fed, ECB and BOJ during and after the Covid-19 pandemic and draws lessons for monetary policy strategy and ist communication. All three central banks provided appropriate accommodation during the pandemic but two failed to unwind this accommodation in a timely manner. The Fed and ECB guided real interest rates to inappropriately negative levels as the economy recovered from the pandemic, fueling high inflation. The policy error can be traced to decisions regarding forward guidance on policy rates that delayed lift-off while the two central banks continued to expand their balance sheets. The Fed and the ECB fell into the forward guidance trap. This could have been avoided if policy were guided by a forward- looking rule that properly adjusted the nominal interest rate with the evolution of the inflation outlook.
A safe core mandate
(2023)
Central banks have vastly expanded their footprint on capital markets. At a time of extraordinary pressure by many sides, a simple benchmark for the scale and scope of their core mandate of price and financial stability may be useful.
We make a case for a narrow mandate to maintain and safeguard the border between safe and quasi safe assets. This ex-ante definition minimizes ambiguity and discourages risk creation and limit panic runs, primarily by separating market demand for reliable liquidity from risk-intolerant, price-insensitive demand for a safe store of value. The central bank may be occasionally forced to intervene beyond the safe core but should not be bound by any such ex-ante mandate, unless directed to specific goals set by legislation with explicit fiscal support.
We review distinct features of liquidity and safety demand, seeking a definition of the safety border, and discuss LOLR support for borderline safe assets such as MMF or uninsured deposits.
A safe core formulation is close to the historical focus on regulated entities, collateralized lending and attention to the public debt market, but its specific framing offers some context on controversial issues such as the extent of LOLR responsibilities. It also justifies a persistently large scale for central bank liabilities (Greenwood, Hansom and Stein 2016), as safety demand is related to financial wealth rather than GDP. Finally, it is consistent with an active central bank role in supporting liquidity in government debt markets trading and clearing (Duffie 2020, 2021).
A key solution for public good provision is the voluntary formation of institutions that commit players to cooperate. Such institutions generate inequality if some players decide not to participate but cannot be excluded from cooperation benefits. Prior research with small groups emphasizes the role of fairness concerns with positive effects on cooperation. We show that effects do not generalize to larger groups: if group size increases, groups are less willing to form institutions generating inequality. In contrast to smaller groups, however, this does not increase the number of participating players, thereby limiting the positive impact of institution formation on cooperation.
This Policy Letter presents two event studies based on the pre-war data that foreshadows the remarkable way in which Russian economy was able to withstand the pressure from unprecedented package of international sanctions. First, it shows that a sudden stop of one of the two domestic producers of zinc in 2018 did not lead to a slowdown in the steel industry, which heavily relied on this input. Second, it demonstrates that a huge increase in cost of fuel called mazut in 2020 had virtually no impact on firms that used it, even in the regions where it was hard to substitute it for alternative fuels. This Policy Letter argues that such stability in production can be explained by the fact that Russian economy is heavily oriented toward commodities. It is much easier to replace a commodity supplier than a supplier of manufacturing goods, and many commodity producers operate at high profit margins that allow them to continue to operate even after big increases in their costs. Thus, sanctions had a much smaller impact on Russia than they would have on an economy with larger manufacturing sector, where inputs are less substitutable and profit margins are smaller.
We study the interplay of capital and liquidity regulation in a general equilibrium setting by focusing on future funding risks. The model consists of a banking sector with long-term illiquid investment opportunities that need to be financed by shortterm debt and by issuing equity. Reliance on refinancing long-term investment in the middle of the life-time is risky, since the next generation of potential short-term debt holders may not be willing to provide funding when the return prospects on the long-term investment turn out to be bad. For moderate return risk, equilibria with and without bank default coexist, and bank default is a self-fulfilling prophecy. Capital and liquidity regulation can prevent bank default and may implement the first-best. Yet the former is more powerful in ruling out undesirable equilibria and thus dominates liquidity regulation. Adding liquidity regulation to optimal capital regulation is redundant.
In current discussions on large language models (LLMs) such as GPT, understanding their ability to emulate facets of human intelligence stands central. Using behavioral economic paradigms and structural models, we investigate GPT’s cooperativeness in human interactions and assess its rational goal-oriented behavior. We discover that GPT cooperates more than humans and has overly optimistic expectations about human cooperation. Intriguingly, additional analyses reveal that GPT’s behavior isn’t random; it displays a level of goal-oriented rationality surpassing human counterparts. Our findings suggest that GPT hyper-rationally aims to maximize social welfare, coupled with a strive of self-preservation. Methodologically, our esearch highlights how structural models, typically employed to decipher human behavior, can illuminate the rationality and goal-orientation of LLMs. This opens a compelling path for future research into the intricate rationality of sophisticated, yet enigmatic artificial agents.
We study the redistributive effects of inflation combining administrative bank data with an information provision experiment during an episode of historic inflation. On average, households are well-informed about prevailing inflation and are concerned about its impact on their wealth; yet, while many households know about inflation eroding nominal assets, most are unaware of nominal-debt erosion. Once they receive information on the debt-erosion channel, households update upwards their beliefs about nominal debt and their own real net wealth. These changes in beliefs causally affect actual consumption and hypothetical debt decisions. Our findings suggest that real wealth mediates the sensitivity of consumption to inflation once households are aware of the wealth effects of inflation.
Dynamics of life course family transitions in Germany: exploring patterns, process and relationships
(2023)
This paper explores dynamics of family life events in Germany using discrete time event history analysis based on SOEP data. We find that higher educational attainment, better income level, and marriage emerge as salient protective factors mitigating the risk of mortality; better education also reduces the likelihood of first marriage whereas, lower educational attainment, protracted period, and presence of children act as protective factors against divorce. Our key finding shows that disparity in mean life expectancies between individuals from low- and high-income brackets is observed to be 9 years among males and 6 years among females, thereby illustrating the mortality inequality attributed to income disparities. Our estimates show that West Germans have low risk of death, less likelihood of first marriage, and they have a high risk of divorce and remarriage compared to East Germans.
We present determinacy bounds on monetary policy in the sticky information model. We find that these bounds are more conservative here when the long run Phillips curve is vertical than in the standard Calvo sticky price New Keynesian model. Specifically, the Taylor principle is now necessary directly - no amount of output targeting can substitute for the monetary authority’s concern for inflation. These determinacy bounds are obtained by appealing to frequency domain techniques that themselves provide novel interpretations of the Phillips curve.
Der deutsche und der europäische Gesetzgeber kodifizierten 2013 bzw. 2019 verwandte Schutzrechte zugunsten von Presseverlegern. 2021 und 2023 erließen Australien und Kanada Sondergesetze zum Schutz der Presse im Internet. In den USA und der Schweiz sind entsprechende Legislativvorhaben anhängig. Ultimatives Ziel all dieser Interventionen ist es, ein tragfähiges digitales Pressewesen zu
gewährleisten. Presseverlegern soll zu Einnahmen verholfen werden, die von Betreibern von Suchmaschinen, News-Aggregatoren, Medienbeobachtungsdiensten und sozialen Netzwerken bezahlt werden sollen. Der Beitrag unterscheidet in rechtsvergleichender Betrachtung zunächst zwei Typen der Presseförderung im Internetzeitalter, nämlich einen klassisch-eigentumsmäßigen Ansatz – paradigmatisch realisiert im deutschen Recht – und einen systemisch-marktregulativen, von medienpolitischen Erwägungen geleiteten Ansatz – paradigmatisch verwirklicht im australischen und kanadischen Recht. Anschließend werden die sich spiegelbildlich verhaltenden Vor- und Nachteile dieser beiden Regulierungstypen benannt. Der folgende Abschnitt stellt hybride Lösungen im französischen, italienischen und schweizerischen Recht vor. Schlussbemerkungen führen zurück zur international-vergleichenden Perspektive und zur Frage, was ein wie auch immer gearteter Schutz der Presse in Anbetracht der tektonischen Verschiebungen, die die Online-Kommunikation mit sich bringt, zu bewirken vermag.
Indikatorengestützte Ansätze zur nachhaltigen urbanen Mobilität: Ergebnisse einer Literaturanalyse
(2023)
Das Forschungsprojekt „MOWENDIKO: Konzeptstudie zur Entwicklung eines Mobilitätswendeindex für Kommunen“ untersucht die Einflussfaktoren auf urbane, nachhaltige Mobilität vor dem Hintergrund, dass bisher keine umfassende, standardisierte und wissenschaftlich fundierte Bestimmung von Indikatoren, welche den Fortschritt einer Mobilitätswende in Kommunen abbildet, besteht. Hierfür wird der zentrale Begriff der Mobilitätswende in den wissenschaftlichen Diskurs über die sozio-ökologische Transformation von Mobilität und Verkehr eingeordnet und das Konzept der Mobilitätskulturen erläutert, das als Ausgangspunkt für die Erfassung der vielfältigen Einflussfaktoren auf Verkehr und Mobilität dient. Grundlage der Erarbeitung des Mobilitätswendeindex ist die Untersuchung von indikatorengestützten Ansätzen aus dem Bereich nachhaltige, urbane Mobilität, die im Rahmen einer Literaturanalyse untersucht wurden. Analysiert wurden 35 Indikatorensysteme, die Aspekte von Mobilität, Radverkehr, Fußverkehr, Öffentlicher Verkehr und Nachhaltigkeit abbilden. Die Ergebnisse der Literaturanalyse verdeutlichen, dass ein solcher Index sowohl subjektive als auch objektive Einflussfaktoren auf Mobilität abbilden sollte. Darüber hinaus zeigt sich, dass der Fokus auf die Operationalisierung des politischen Prozesses der Mobilitätswende eine Lücke in der bisherigen Forschung zur indikatorengestützten Analyse von Mobilität und Verkehr darstellt.
Bei der Realisierung der dringend nötigen Verkehrs- und Mobilitätswende sind Möglichkeiten der Befriedung menschlicher Mobilitätsbedürfnisse unabhängig von privater Autonutzung ein wichtiger Baustein. Im Rahmen dieser Arbeit werden darum instrumentelle, affektive und symbolische Motive der privaten Lastenradnutzung qualitativ erforscht. Das Lastenrad hat in den vergangenen Jahren insbesondere in urbanen Räumen an Popularität gewonnen und ermöglicht für den Transport von weiteren Personen, insbesondere Kindern, Tieren oder größeren Lasten eine emissionsarme oder -freie Fortbewegung. Die Untersuchungsergebnisse zeigen, dass bei den instrumentellen Motive die häufig nach Gender verteilte Sorgearbeit eine entscheidende Rolle einnimmt. Dabei erfüllt das Lastenrad das von den Ansprüchen Transportoptionen, Zeitsouveränität, Geschwindigkeit, Erreichbarkeit und Multifunktionalität geprägte Mobilitätsbedürfnis von Personen, die neben Sorge- auch Lohnarbeit im Alltag leisten, im urbanen Raum auf einzigartige Weise. Auch für Personen, deren Alltag nicht maßgeblich durch diese Doppelbelastung geprägt ist, stellt die mit dem Lastenrad mögliche optimierte Überwindung von Raum- und Zeitwiderständen ein relevantes instrumentelles Motiv dar. Hinzu kommen soziale Interaktion, Gesundheit und Klimaschutz. Dabei ist die Lastenradnutzung stark mit positiven emotionalen Reaktionen und hedonischem Erlebniswert verknüpft. Symbolisch drückt sie einen hohen finanziellen und sozialen Status der Besitzer*innen aus und genießt hohes Ansehen in ihrem sozialen Umfeld. Gleichzeitig kann mit der Lastenradnutzung das Bedürfnis nach Individualität und Distinktion erfüllt und der hohe Stellenwert, den nachhaltige Mobilität für die Lastenradbesitzer*innen dieser Untersuchung hat, ausgedrückt werden.
Die Erklärung von Intelligenz fasziniert Menschen seit Jahrtausenden, scheint sich doch mit ihr die menschliche Singularität gegenüber Natur und Tier zu manifestieren. Zugleich betonen nicht nur philosophische Strömungen, sondern auch die Mathematik, die Neuro- und die Computerwissenschaften die Abhängigkeit menschlicher Intelligenz von mechanistischen Prozessen. Ob damit eine Verwandtschaft beider Formen der Informationsverarbeitung verbunden ist oder genau umgekehrt fundamentale Unterschiede bestehen, ist seit knapp hundert Jahren Gegenstand wissenschaftlicher Kontroversen. Fest steht allerdings, dass Maschinen jedenfalls in manchen Bereichen die menschliche Leistungsfähigkeit in Schnelligkeit und Präzision übertreffen können. Nähert man sich dieser Vorstellung, drängt sich die Frage auf, ob es sich empfiehlt, bestimmte Entscheidungen besser von Maschinen treffen, jedenfalls aber unterstützen zu lassen. Neben Ärzten, Rechtsanwälten und Börsenhändlern betrifft das auch Leitungsentscheidungen von Unternehmensführern.
Vor diesem Hintergrund wird im Folgenden ein Überblick über Formen künstlicher Intelligenz (KI) gegeben. Im Anschluss fokussiert der Beitrag auf die Rolle von KI im Kontext von Vorstandsentscheidungen. Dazu zählen allgemeine Sorgfaltspflichten, wenn über den Einsatz von KI im Unternehmen zu entscheiden ist. Geht es um die Unterstützung gerade von Vorstandsentscheidungen stellen sich zusätzlich Fragen der Kooperation von Mensch und Maschine, der Delegation des Kernbestands von Leitungsentscheidungen und der Einstandspflicht für KI.
In this study, we introduce a novel entity matching (EM) framework. It com-bines state-of-the-art EM approaches based on Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) with a new similarity encoding derived from matching techniques that are preva-lent in finance and economics. Our framework is on-par or outperforms alternative end-to-end frameworks in standard benchmark cases. Because similarity encod-ing is constructed using (edit) distances instead of semantic similarities, it avoids out-of-vocabulary problems when matching dirty data. We highlight this property by applying an EM application to dirty financial firm-level data extracted from historical archives.
Biodiversity loss poses a significant threat to the global economy and affects ecosystem services on which most large companies rely heavily. The severe financial implications of such a reduced species diversity have attracted the attention of companies and stakeholders, with numerous calls to increase corporate transparency. Using textual analysis, this study thus investigates the current state of voluntary biodiversity reporting of 359 European blue-chip companies and assesses the extent to which it aligns with the upcoming disclosure framework of the Task Force on Nature-related Financial Disclosures (TNFD). The descriptive results suggest a substantial gap between current reporting practices and the proposed TNFD framework, with disclosures largely lacking quantification, details and clear targets. In addition, the disclosures appear to be relatively unstandardized. Companies in sectors or regions exposed to higher nature-related risks as well as larger companies are more likely to report on aspects of biodiversity. This study contributes to the emerging literature on nature-related risks and provides detailed insights on the extent of the reporting gap in light of the upcoming standards.
This paper analyzes the current implementation status of sustainability and taxonomy-aligned disclosure under the Sustainable Finance Disclosure Regulation (SFDR) as well as the development of the SFDR categorization of funds offered via banks in Germany. Examining data provided by WM Group, which consists of more than 10,000 investment funds and 2,000 index funds between September 2022 and March 2023, we have observed a significant proportion of Article 9 (dark green) funds transitioning to Article 8 (light green) funds, particularly among index funds. As a consequence of this process, the profile of the SFDR classes has sharpened, which reflects an increased share of sustainable investments in the group of Article 9 funds. When differentiating between environmental and social investments, the share of environmental investments increased, but the share of social investments decreased in the group of Article 9 funds at the beginning of 2023. The share of taxonomy-aligned investments is very low, but slightly increasing for Article 9 funds. However, by March 2023 only around 1,000 funds have reported their sustainability proportions and this picture might change due to legal changes which require all funds in the scope of the SFDR to report these proportions in their annual reports being published after 1 January 2023.
Industry classification groups firms into finer partitions to help investments and empirical analysis. To overcome the well-documented limitations of existing industry definitions, like their stale nature and coarse categories for firms with multiple operations, we employ a clustering approach on 69 firm characteristics and allocate companies to novel economic sectors maximizing the within-group explained variation. Such sectors are dynamic yet stable, and represent a superior investment set compared to standard classification schemes for portfolio optimization and for trading strategies based on within-industry mean-reversion, which give rise to a latent risk factor significantly priced in the cross-section. We provide a new metric to quantify feature importance for clustering methods, finding that size drives differences across classical industries while book-to-market and financial liquidity variables matter for clustering-based sectors.
We estimate the transmission of the pandemic shock in 2020 to prices in the residential and commercial real estate market by causal machine learning, using new granular data at the municipal level for Germany. We exploit differences in the incidence of Covid infections or short-time work at the municipal level for identification. In contrast to evidence for other countries, we find that the pandemic had only temporary negative effects on rents for some real estate types and increased asset prices of real estate particularly in the top price segment of commercial real estate.
This study analyzes information production and trading behavior of banks with lending relationships. We combine trade-by-trade supervisory data and credit-registry data to examine banks' proprietary trading in borrower stocks around a large number of corporate events. We find that relationship banks build up positive (negative) trading positions in the two weeks before events with positive (negative) news, even when these events are unscheduled, and unwind positions shortly after the event. This trading pattern is more pronounced in situations when banks are likely to possess private information about their borrowers, and cannot be explained by specialized expertise in certain industries or certain firms. The results suggest that banks' lending relationships inform their trading and underscore the potential for conflicts of interest in universal banking, which have been a prominent concern in the regulatory debate for a long time. Our analysis illustrates how combining large data sets can uncover unusual trading patterns and enhance the supervision of financial institutions.
We examine whether the uncertainty related to environmental, social, and governance (ESG) regulation developments is reflected in asset prices. We proxy the sensitivity of firms to ESG regulation uncertainty by the disparity across the components of their ESG ratings. Firms with high ESG disparity have a higher option-implied cost of protection against downside tail risk. The impact of the misalignment across the different dimensions of the ESG score is distinct from that of ESG score level itself. Aggregate downside risk bears a negative price for firms with low ESG disparity.
A common practice in empirical macroeconomics is to examine alternative recursive orderings of the variables in structural vector autogressive (VAR) models. When the implied impulse responses look similar, the estimates are considered trustworthy. When they do not, the estimates are used to bound the true response without directly addressing the identification challenge. A leading example of this practice is the literature on the effects of uncertainty shocks on economic activity. We prove by counterexample that this practice is invalid in general, whether the data generating process is a structural VAR model or a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model.
Um eine grüne Transformation der Volkswirtschaft zu erreichen, werden Finanzmärkte und die mit ihnen verbundenen Banken eine wichtige Rolle einnehmen müssen. Aber allein vermögen Banken und Kapitalmärkte wenig, wenn sie nicht im Kontext einer klugen, politischen Rahmensetzung und einer transparenten Erfassung der verursachten Schäden auf Unternehmensebene gesehen werden. Diese drei Pfeiler stellen bildlich den tragenden Unterbau für eine Brücke hin zu einer klimaneutralen Wirt-schaftsverfassung dar. Ihr Zusammenwirken ist eine Voraussetzung dafür, dass die Finanzwirtschaft die benötigten Finanzmittel für die grüne Transformation bereitstellen kann.
A key technology driving the digital transformation of the economy is artificial intelligence (AI). It has gained a high degree of public attention with the initial release of the chatbot ChatGPT, which demonstrates the potential of generative AI (GAI) as a relatively new segment within AI. It is widely expected that GAI will shape the future of many industries and society in the coming years. This article provides a brief overview of the foundations of generative AI (“GAI”) including machine learning and what distinguishes it from other fields of AI. Furthermore, we look at important players in this emerging market, possible use cases and the expected economic potential as of today. It is apparent that, once again, a few US-based Big Tech firms are about to dominate this emerging technology and that the European tech sector is falling further behind. Finally, we conclude that the recently adopted Digital Markets Act (DMA) and the Digital Service Act (DSA) as well as the upcoming AI Act should be reviewed to ensure that the regulatory framework of European digital markets keeps up with the accelerated development of AI.
Homeownership rates differ widely across European countries. We document that part of this variation is driven by differences in the fraction of adults co-residing with their par-ents. Comparing Germany and Italy, we show that in contrast to homeownership rates per household, homeownership rates per individual are very similar during the first part of the life cycle. To understand these patterns, we build an overlapping-generations model where individuals face uninsurable income risk and make consumption-saving and housing tenure decisions. We embed an explicit intergenerational link between children and parents to cap-ture the three-way trade-off between owning, renting, and co-residing. Calibrating the model to Germany we explore the role of income profiles, housing policies, and the taste for inde-pendence and show that a combination of these factors goes a long way in explaining the differential life-cycle patterns of living arrangements between the two countries.
We develop a quantity-driven general equilibrium model that integrates the term structure of interest rates with the repurchase agreements (repo) market to shed light on the com-bined effects of quantitative easing (QE) on the bond and money markets. We characterize in closed form the endogenous dynamic interaction between bond prices and repo rates, and show (i) that repo specialness dampens the impact of any given quantity of asset pur-chases due to QE on the slope of the term structure and (ii) that bond scarcity resulting from QE increases repo specialness, thus strengthening the local supply channel of QE.
Recent regulatory measures such as the European Union’s AI Act re-quire artificial intelligence (AI) systems to be explainable. As such, under-standing how explainability impacts human-AI interaction and pinpoint-ing the specific circumstances and groups affected, is imperative. In this study, we devise a formal framework and conduct an empirical investiga-tion involving real estate agents to explore the complex interplay between explainability of and delegation to AI systems. On an aggregate level, our findings indicate that real estate agents display a higher propensity to delegate apartment evaluations to an AI system when its workings are explainable, thereby surrendering control to the machine. However, at an individual level, we detect considerable heterogeneity. Agents possess-ing extensive domain knowledge are generally more inclined to delegate decisions to AI and minimize their effort when provided with explana-tions. Conversely, agents with limited domain knowledge only exhibit this behavior when explanations correspond with their preconceived no-tions regarding the relationship between apartment features and listing prices. Our results illustrate that the introduction of explainability in AI systems may transfer the decision-making control from humans to AI under the veil of transparency, which has notable implications for policy makers and practitioners that we discuss.
We provide evidence on the extent to which survey items in the Preference Survey Module and the resulting Global Preference Survey measuring social preferences − trust, altruism, positive and negative reciprocity − predict behavior in corresponding experimental games outside the original participant sample of Falk et al. (2022). Our results, which are based on a replication study with university students in Tehran, Iran, are mixed. While quantitative items considering hypothetical versions of the experimental games correlate significantly and economically meaningfully with individual behavior, none of the qualitative items show significant correlations. The only exception is altruism where results correspond more closely to the original findings.
In the euro area, monetary policy is conducted by a single central bank for 20 member countries. However, countries are heterogeneous in their economic development, including their inflation rates. This paper combines a New Keynesian model and a neural network to assess whether the European Central Bank (ECB) conducted monetary policy between 2002 and 2022 according to the weighted average of the inflation rates within the European Monetary Union (EMU) or reacted more strongly to the inflation rate developments of certain EMU countries.
The New Keynesian model first generates data which is used to train and evaluate several machine learning algorithms. They authors find that a neural network performs best out-of-sample. They use this algorithm to generally classify historical EMU data, and to determine the exact weight on the inflation rate of EMU members in each quarter of the past two decades. Their findings suggest disproportional emphasis of the ECB on the inflation rates of EMU members that exhibited high inflation rate volatility for the vast majority of the time frame considered (80%), with a median inflation weight of 67% on these countries. They show that these results stem from a tendency of the ECB to react more strongly to countries whose inflation rates exhibit greater deviations from their long-term trend.
Climate change has become one of the most prominent concerns globally. In this paper, the authors study the transition risk of greenhouse gas emission reduction in structural environmental-macroeconomic DSGE models. First, they analyze the uncertainty in model prediction on the effect of unanticipated and pre-announced carbon price increases. Second, they conduct optimal model-robust policy in different settings. They find that reducing emissions by 40% causes 0.7% to 4% output loss with 2% on average. Pre-announcement of carbon prices affects the inflation dynamics significantly. The central bank should react slightly less to inflation and output growth during the transition risk. With optimal carbon price designs, it should react even less to inflation, and more to output growth.
We analyze the repercussions of different kinds of uncertainty on cash demand, including uncertainty of the digital infrastructures, confidence crises of the financial system, natural disasters, political uncertainties, and inflationary crises. Based on a comprehensive literature survey, theoretical considerations and complemented by case studies, we derive a classification scheme how cash holdings typically evolve in each of these types of uncertainty by separating between demand for domestic and international cash as well as between transaction and store of value balances. Hereby, we focus on the stabilizing macroeconomic properties of cash and recommend guidelines for cash supply by central banks and the banking system. Finally, we exemplify our analysis with five case studies from the developing world, namely Venezuela, Zimbabwe, Afghanistan, Iraq, and Libya.
Trotz der von der EZB eingeleiteten Zinswende in der zweiten Jahreshälfte 2022 als späte Reaktion auf die deutlich unterschätzte Persistenz hoher Inflationsraten im Euroraum sind die Realzinsen sowohl in der Ex-post-Betrachtung als auch in der Ex-ante-Betrachtung keineswegs als restriktiv einzuschätzen. Die Banken haben allerdings recht rasch strengere Vergaberichtlinien beschlossen, und die Nachfrage im Wohnungsbau und bei den Hypothekarkrediten ist stark eingebrochen.
Die Autoren thematisieren die Bedeutung von Zahlungsstromeffekten bei Annuitätenkrediten und analysiert hier vor allem den sogenannten Front-Loading-Effekt. Danach führen höhere Nominalzinsen selbst bei vollständig antizipierten Inflationsraten und unveränderten Realzinsen zu starken finanziellen Zusatzbelastungen in den ersten Phasen der typischerweise langen Kreditlaufzeit. Derartige Liquiditätseffekte können die Zahlungsfähigkeit bzw. die Zahlungsbereitschaft der privaten Investoren empfindlich verringern. Dies gilt vor allem bei Darlehen in Form der Prozentannuität, da hier zusätzlich ein Laufzeitenverkürzungseffekt auftritt. Solche Darlehen sind in Deutschland recht populär.
Mit Blick auf die Zukunft sehen die Autoren auch eine reale Gefahr für den Bestand an Wohnungsbaukrediten, wenn es zu einer Refinanzierung des großen Bestands an billigen Wohnungsbaukrediten kommt, ein Risiko, das auch Auswirkungen auf die makroökonomische und finanzielle Stabilität hat.
Mobilität ist eine wesentliche Voraussetzung, um an außerhäuslichen Aktivitäten teilzunehmen und somit am gesellschaftlichen Leben teilhaben zu können. Da das Nutzen von Verkehrsmitteln mit Kosten verbunden ist, kann dies insbesondere für Personen mit geringen Einkünften eine Mobilitätsbarriere darstellen und das Risiko erhöhen, von mobilitätsbezogener sozialer Exklusion betroffen zu sein.
Eine besondere und tragende Rolle fällt dem öffentlichen Personennahverkehr zu (ÖPNV), auf den wir mit diesem methodischen Beitrag eingehen möchten: Zunächst tragen wir zusammen, wie finanzielle ÖPNV-Erschwinglichkeit quantifiziert werden kann, wobei wir auf Grundlage internationaler Fachliteratur zwei Ansätze (beobachtete und potenzielle Erschwinglichkeit) unterscheiden. Anschließend diskutieren wir mögliche Indikatoren für die ÖPNV-Erschwinglichkeit, die auf dem Einkommen privater Haushalte basieren. Darüber hinaus skizzieren wir einen GIS-basierten Indikator für den Nutzen des Deutschlandtickets, das seit Mai 2023 bundesweit im ÖPNV gilt.
This paper studies the impact of banks’ dividend restrictions on the behavior of their institutional investors. Using an identification strategy that relies on the within investor variation and a difference in difference setup, I find that funds permanently decrease their ownership shares at treated banks during the 2020 dividend restrictions in the Eurozone and even exit treated banks’ stocks. Using data before the intro- duction of the ban reveals a positive relationship between fund ownership and banks’ dividend yield, highlighting again the importance of dividends for European banks’ fund investors. This reaction also has pricing implications since there is a negative relationship between the dividend restriction announcement day cumulative abnormal returns and the percentage of fund owners per bank.
This literature survey explores the potential avenues for the design of a green auto asset-backed security by focusing on the European auto securitization market. In this context, we examine the entire value chain of the securitization process to understand the incentives and interests involved at various stages of the transaction. We review recent regulatory developments, feasibility concerns, and potential designs of a sustainable securitization framework. Our study suggests that a Green Auto ABS should be based on both a green use of proceeds and a green collateral-based methodology.
Climate risk has become a major concern for financial institutions and financial markets. Yet, climate policy is still in its infancy and contributes to increased uncertainty. For example, the lack of a sufficiently high carbon price and the variety of definitions for green activities lower the value of existing and new capital, and complicate risk management. This column argues that it would be welfare-enhancing if policy changes were to follow a predictable longer-term path. Accordingly, the authors suggest a role for financial regulation in the transition.
We document the structure of firm-bank relationships across the eleven largest euro area countries and present new stylised facts using novel data from the recent credit registry of the Eurosystem - AnaCredit. We look at the number of banking relationships, reliance on the main bank, credit instruments, loan maturity and interest rates. The granularity of the data allows us to account for cross country differences in firm characteristics. Firms in Southern European countries borrow from a larger number of banks and obtain a lower share of credit from the main bank compared to those in Northern European countries. They also tend to borrow more on short term, more expensive instruments and to obtain loans with shorter maturity. This is consistent with the hypothesis that Southern European countries rely less on relationship banking and obtain credit less conducive to firm growth, in line with the smaller average size of Southern European firms. Instead, no clear pattern emerges in terms of interest rates, consistent with the idea that banks appropriate part of the surplus generated by relationship lending through higher rates.
This article provides an overview of the current state of the regulation of disinformation in the EU. It shows that the concept of disinformation, the purpose of anti-disinformation measures and their content and enforcement can only be understood if a holistic view is taken of private, hybrid-co-regulatory and public-law norms. The delicate field of disinformation is to a large extent dealt with outside of statutory law. The questions raised thereby are largely unresolved.
PURPOSE: This theoretical study seeks to understand how the development of ‘Transnational Business Feminism’ in response to the 2008 financial crisis, was implemented in 2013 through Japan’s ‘Womenomics’ program. The paper further examines how efficient this said form of neoliberal feminist economic program was in in addressing vulnerabilities in the Japanese financial system during the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic. Finally, it looks at how the pandemic has shifted conversations around the future of gender and finance in Japan through the Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) framework.
DESIGN/METHOD: Drawing on a variety of sources, this paper uses a case study research methodology as well as statistical data from a variety of sources to draw theoretical conclusions on the specific case of Japan’s economy.
RESULTS/FINDINGS: This paper reveals that the programs implemented by the Japanese government failed to address existing gender inequalities and systemic risk in the Japanese economy, and that women in Japan were hit much harder by the repercussions of the pandemic, in spite of Womenomics policies.
ORIGINALITY/VALUE: This study offers insights into the effectiveness of neoliberal feminist agendas in addressing systemic financial and economic risk, in order to help optimize the potential of ESG.
Retained earnings and foreign portfolio ownership: implications for the current account debate
(2023)
In some countries, a sizable fraction of savings is derived from corporate savings. Although larger, traded corporations are often co-owned by foreign portfolio investors, current international accounting standards allocate all corporate savings to the host country. This paper suggests a framework to correct for this misleading attribution and applies this concept to Germany. For the years 2012 to 2020, our corrections retrospectively reduce German savings and consequently the German current account surplus by, on average, €11.5bn annually. This amounts to approximately five percent of Germany’s average official current account surplus (€226.6bn) across these years.
We find that high macroeconomic uncertainty is associated with greater accumulation of physical capital, despite a reduction in investment and valuations. To reconcile this puzzling evidence, we show that uncertainty predicts lower depreciation and utilization of existing capital, which dominates the investment slowdown. Motivated by these dynamics, we develop a quantitative production-based model in which firms implement precautionary savings through reducing utilization rather than raising invest-ment. Through this novel intensive-margin mechanism, uncertainty shocks command a quarter of the equity premium in general equilibrium, while flexibility in utilization adjustments helps explain uncertainty risk exposures in the cross-section of industry returns.
We assemble a data set of more than eight million German Twitter posts related to the war in Ukraine. Based on state-of-the-art methods of text analysis, we construct a daily index of uncertainty about the war as perceived by German Twitter. The approach also allows us to separate this index into uncertainty about sanctions against Russia, energy policy and other dimensions. We then estimate a VAR model with daily financial and macroeconomic data and identify an exogenous uncertainty shock. The increase in uncertainty has strong effects on financial markets and causes a significant decline in economic activity as well as an increase in expected inflation. We find the effects of uncertainty to be particularly strong in the first months of the war.
In order to reach climate neutrality by 2050, the European Union is taking action in the form of extensive sustainability regulations with the aim to push the private sector towards sustainable economic activities. In this context, a new instrument to finance a company’s sustainability transition has been developed: the sustainability-linked bond (SLB). This paper analyzes the SLB market’s efficiency in attracting those companies that are most crucial for a successful sustainability transition, namely carbon-intensive companies and companies that are lagging behind in their sustainability transition, defined as ESG laggards. By developing a conceptual framework for the SLB market and running a probit and logit regression estimation, this paper shows that the SLB market efficiently attracts carbon-intensive companies, but fails to attract ESG laggards. Moreover, the paper identifies four success factors for the SLB market to improve its future accessibility and credibility.
The European low-carbon transition began in the last few decades and is accelerating to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. This paper examines how climate-related transition indicators of a large European corporate firm relate to its CDS-implied credit risk across various time horizons. Findings show that firms with higher GHG emissions have higher CDS spreads at all tenors, including the 30-year horizon, particularly after the 2015 Paris Agreement, and in prominent industries such as Electricity, Gas, and Mining. Results suggest that the European CDS market is currently pricing, to some extent, albeit small, the exposure to transition risk for a firm across different time horizons. However, it fails to account for a company’s efforts to manage transition risks and its exposure to the EU Emissions Trading Scheme. CDS market participants seem to find challenging to risk-differentiate ETS-participating firms from other firms.
An unfamiliar term in the not-too-distant past, “net zero” has become a headline-maker in the business and financial world with the growing importance of climate change. Succumbing to increasing pressure, companies and financial institutions around the world have come to adopt net-zero transition plans and targets, pledging to hit certain emission-reduction targets in a long-term period. Moreover, regulators around the world have started to require the disclosure or adoption of net-zero transition plans and targets.
However, an unintended consequence of net-zero transition commitments has been the increased popularity of divestments. That is, many firms seeking to fulfill a net-zero plan are passing on carbon-intensive assets (i.e., oil, gas, and coal assets) to other firms that are likely to be non-committal to environmental goals or that operate under less pressure from investors, stakeholders, and regulators. Such divestments, technically mergers and acquisitions (M&A) transactions, present an ideal opportunity to improve a divesting firm’s environmental record and reach ambitious net-zero goals, creating the impression that an emission reduction has occurred. However, the key is how acquiring firms handle these assets. If they continue operating as before, there will not be an overall improvement for the global climate. Worse, such assets can be operated by new owners in a way that causes more emissions. In any case, such divestments undermine the credibility and value of net-zero ambitions by allowing firms to reach targets by simply divesting assets.
This article explores the reasons and motivations for divestments or, more broadly M&As of carbon-intensive assets and explains why the increased role of net-zero commitments can be undermined by those transactions. We provide some evidence to illustrate the landscape of such transactions and the concerns they give rise to. Lastly, we explore several policy options to address the problem.