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Background: Handball referees play an important role during a handball match. Surprisingly, not much is known about their sports-related injuries and resulting pain, therefore the purpose of our study was to focus on injuries and sports-related pain in referees in German handball leagues. Methods: During the 2018/19 national German handball season, referees of the German Federation of Handball (DHB) were contacted and asked to complete an injury and pain questionnaire on the penultimate matchday of the first and the second round of the season. Results: Seventy referees participated in the study. One in three referees reported an injury during the last year and perceived some form of pain. Of those suffering from pain, 16.7% referees reported chronic pain disorders. During the season, 31.4% of referees incurred an injury and the majority of the 70 referees officiated despite pain (n = 43). Prospectively-enrolled data suggested an incidence of 11.6 (95% CI: 10.3 to 13.0) injuries per 1000 match hours, and 19.0 (95% CI: 16.8 to 21.3) sports-related pain events per 1000 match hours. The most common injuries were foot and knee injuries and a substantial number of the referees (n = 25) reported taking analgesics for the pain. Conclusion: German handball referees are at risk of sports-related injuries with subsequent pain. Considering the injury profile, the incidence of sports-related pain events, and the high physiological demands of refereeing, it appears that prevention programs should be developed and integrated into the routine of the referee.
Predicting the cumulative medical load of COVID-19 outbreaks after the peak in daily fatalities
(2021)
The distinct ways the COVID-19 pandemic has been unfolding in different countries and regions suggest that local societal and governmental structures play an important role not only for the baseline infection rate, but also for short and long-term reactions to the outbreak. We propose to investigate the question of how societies as a whole, and governments in particular, modulate the dynamics of a novel epidemic using a generalization of the SIR model, the reactive SIR (short-term and long-term reaction) model. We posit that containment measures are equivalent to a feedback between the status of the outbreak and the reproduction factor. Short-term reaction to an outbreak corresponds in this framework to the reaction of governments and individuals to daily cases and fatalities. The reaction to the cumulative number of cases or deaths, and not to daily numbers, is captured in contrast by long-term reaction. We present the exact phase space solution of the controlled SIR model and use it to quantify containment policies for a large number of countries in terms of short and long-term control parameters. We find increased contributions of long-term control for countries and regions in which the outbreak was suppressed substantially together with a strong correlation between the strength of societal and governmental policies and the time needed to contain COVID-19 outbreaks. Furthermore, for numerous countries and regions we identified a predictive relation between the number of fatalities within a fixed period before and after the peak of daily fatality counts, which allows to gauge the cumulative medical load of COVID-19 outbreaks that should be expected after the peak. These results suggest that the proposed model is applicable not only for understanding the outbreak dynamics, but also for predicting future cases and fatalities once the effectiveness of outbreak suppression policies is established with sufficient certainty. Finally, we provide a web app (https://itp.uni-frankfurt.de/covid-19/) with tools for visualising the phase space representation of real-world COVID-19 data and for exporting the preprocessed data for further analysis.