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Predictions of oil prices reaching $100 per barrel during the winter of 2021/22 have raised fears of persistently high inflation and rising inflation expectations for years to come. We show that these concerns have been overstated. A $100 oil scenario of the type discussed by many observers, would only briefly raise monthly headline inflation, before fading rather quickly. However, the short-run effects on headline inflation would be sizable. For example, on a yearover- year basis, headline PCE inflation would increase by 1.8 percentage points at the end of 2021 under this scenario, and by 0.4 percentage points at the end of 2022. In contrast, the impact on measures of core inflation such as trimmed mean PCE inflation is only 0.4 and 0.3 percentage points in 2021 and 2022, respectively. These estimates already account for any increases in inflation expectations under the scenario. The peak response of the 1-year household inflation expectation would be 1.2 percentage points, while that of the 5-year expectation would be 0.2 percentage points.
Since the 1970s, exports and imports of manufactured goods have been the engine of international trade and much of that trade relies on container shipping. This paper introduces a new monthly index of the volume of container trade to and from North America. Incorporating this index into a structural macroeconomic VAR model facilitates the identification of shocks to domestic U.S. demand as well as foreign demand for U.S. manufactured goods. We show that, unlike in the Great Recession, the primary determinant of the U.S. economic contraction in early 2020 was a sharp drop in domestic demand. Although detrended data for personal consumption expenditures and manufacturing output suggest that the U.S. economy has recovered to near 90% of pre-pandemic levels as of March 2021, our structural VAR model shows that the component of manufacturing output driven by domestic demand had only recovered to 59% of pre-pandemic levels and that of real personal consumption only to 76%. The difference is mainly accounted for by unexpected reductions in frictions in the container shipping market.
The efficacy of statin-treatment in aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) remains controversial. We aimed to investigate the effects of statin-treatment in non-aneurysmal (na)SAH in accordance with animal research data illustrating the pathophysiology of naSAH. We systematically searched PubMed using PRISMA-guidelines and selected experimental studies assessing the statin-effect on SAH. Detecting the accordance of the applied experimental models with the pathophysiology of naSAH, we analyzed our institutional database of naSAH patients between 1999 and 2018, regarding the effect of statin treatment in these patients and creating a translational concept. Patient characteristics such as statin-treatment (simvastatin 40 mg/d), the occurrence of cerebral vasospasm (CVS), delayed infarction (DI), delayed cerebral ischemia (DCI), and clinical outcome were recorded. In our systematic review of experimental studies, we found 13 studies among 18 titles using blood-injection-animal-models to assess the statin-effect in accordance with the pathophysiology of naSAH. All selected studies differ on study-setting concerning drug-administration, evaluation methods, and neurological tests. Patients from the Back to Bedside project, including 293 naSAH-patients and 51 patients with simvastatin-treatment, were recruited for this analysis. Patients under treatment were affected by a significantly lower risk of CVS (p < 0.01; OR 3.7), DI (p < 0.05; OR 2.6), and DCI (p < 0.05; OR 3). Furthermore, there was a significant association between simvastatin-treatment and favorable-outcome (p < 0.05; OR 3). However, dividing patients with statin-treatment in pre-SAH (n = 31) and post-SAH (n = 20) treatment groups, we only detected a tenuously significant higher chance for a favorable outcome (p < 0.05; OR 0.05) in the small group of 20 patients with statin post-SAH treatment. Using a multivariate-analysis, we detected female gender (55%; p < 0.001; OR 4.9), Hunt&Hess ≤III at admission (p < 0.002; OR 4), no anticoagulant-therapy (p < 0.0001; OR 0.16), and statin-treatment (p < 0.0001; OR 24.2) as the main factors improving the clinical outcome. In conclusion, we detected a significantly lower risk for CVS, DCI, and DI in naSAH patients under statin treatment. Additionally, a significant association between statin treatment and favorable outcome 6 months after naSAH onset could be confirmed. Nevertheless, unified animal experiments should be considered to create the basis for developing new therapeutic schemes.