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Local interactions between particles of a collection causes all particles to reorganize in new positions. The purpose of this paper is to construct an energy-based model of self-organizing subgroups, which describes the behavior of singular local moves of a particle. The present paper extends the Hegselmann-Krause model on consensus dynamics, where agents simultaneously move to the barycenter of all agents in an epsilon neighborhood. The Energy-based model presented here is analyzed and simulated on finite metric space. AMS Subject Classifications:81T80; 93A30; 37M05; 68U20
Background: The immune system is a complex adaptive system of cells and molecules that are interwoven in a highly organized communication network. Primary immune deficiencies are disorders in which essential parts of the immune system are absent or do not function according to plan. X-linked agammaglobulinemia is a B-lymphocyte maturation disorder in which the production of immunoglobulin is prohibited by a genetic defect. Patients have to be put on life-long immunoglobulin substitution therapy in order to prevent recurrent and persistent opportunistic infections. Methodology: We formulate an immune response model in terms of stochastic differential equations and perform a systematic analysis of empirical therapy protocols that differ in the treatment frequency. The model accounts for the immunoglobulin reduction by natural degradation and by antigenic consumption, as well as for the periodic immunoglobulin replenishment that gives rise to an inhomogeneous distribution of immunoglobulin specificities in the shape space. Results are obtained from computer simulations and from analytical calculations within the framework of the Fokker-Planck formalism, which enables us to derive closed expressions for undetermined model parameters such as the infection clearance rate. Conclusions: We find that the critical value of the clearance rate, below which a chronic infection develops, is strongly dependent on the strength of fluctuations in the administered immunoglobulin dose per treatment and is an increasing function of the treatment frequency. The comparative analysis of therapy protocols with regard to the treatment frequency yields quantitative predictions of therapeutic relevance, where the choice of the optimal treatment frequency reveals a conflict of competing interests: In order to diminish immunomodulatory effects and to make good economic sense, therapeutic immunoglobulin levels should be kept close to physiological levels, implying high treatment frequencies. However, clearing infections without additional medication is more reliably achieved by substitution therapies with low treatment frequencies. Our immune response model predicts that the compromise solution of immunoglobulin substitution therapy has a treatment frequency in the range from one infusion per week to one infusion per two weeks.
This article discusses the divergent status of the two particles lé and lá in the grammar of Konkomba, a Gur language (Niger-Congo) of the Gurma subgroup. While previous studies claim that both particles are focus markers, this author argues that only the particle lá should be analyzed as a pure pragmatic device. Distributional studies suggest that the use of particle lé, on the other hand, is only required under specific focus conditions, and primarily represents a syntactic device.
Identification of caddisfly specimens from Vietnam collected by scientific field staff of the Royal Ontario Museum and the American Museum of Natural History revealed 19 new country records. All but one species were reported from other Oriental region countries, particularly Thailand and Indonesia. However, Goera kawamotonis Kobayashi 1987 was only known from the East Palaearctic region (Japan and Russian Far East). The total number of species now recorded from Vietnam is 400.
Akute Hochrisiko-Leukämien oder deren Rezidive, chronische Leukämien, Myelodysplastische Syndrome und Hodgkin- und Non-Hodgkin-Lymphome sind Indikationen für hämatopoetische Stammzelltransplantationen. Das Verfahren ist mit einer hohen Therapie-assoziierten Morbidität und Mortalität (TRM), die bei 5-40% liegt, assoziiert. Hauptprobleme sind dabei neben Infektionen die akute und chronische Transplantatreaktion (Graft-versus-Host-Erkrankung, GvHD). Die TRM variiert je nach Grunderkrankung, Spender und Allgemeinzustand des Patienten. Um Risikofaktoren für die TRM zu identifizieren, analysierten wir in einer retrospektiven Studie 205 allogene pädiatrische SZT in 4 Kliniken, von denen jeweils 2 Kliniken ein hohes bzw. niedriges Risikoprofil hinsichtlich der TRM hatten. Wir überprüften die Anwendbarkeit und Validität des von Matthes-Martin et al. entwickelten Risikoscores (TRMScore), der aus drei Risiko-Punkten Patienten-spezifische (Alter, Grunderkrankung) und Therapie-spezifische (Spender) Charakteristika miteinander kombiniert. Dieser Score teilt die Patienten in 4 TRM–Risikogruppen ein mit einem Score von 0 Punkten (Patient unter 10 Jahren mit HLA-identischen Geschwister als Donor) bis zu 3 Punkten (Patient über 10 Jahren, CR3 und HLA-nicht passenden Spender). Wir modifizierten den TRM-Score von Matthes-Martin et al., indem wir die Patienten mit einem TRM-Score von 0 und 1 in eine erste Gruppe (TRM-Score I) und die Patienten mit dem TRM-Score von 2 und 3 in eine zweite Gruppe zusammen (TRM-Score II) zusammenfassten, und entwickelten den mTRM-Score (modifizierter TRM-Score). Die Indikationen zur SZT waren ALL, AML, CML, Non-Hodgkin-Lymphome, Hodgkin-Lymphome und MDS. Es gab 88 KMT und 115 PBSZT und in 2 Fällen war die Stammzellquelle eine Kombination aus Knochenmark und peripherem Blut. Das Patientenalter lag zwischen 0 und 23 Jahren. Spender waren MSD (26,8%), MRD (1%), MUD (53,2), MMUD (10,2%) und MMRD (8,8). Am LFU lebten 61% der Patienten. Von den 39% der verstorbenen Patienten sind 40% aufgrund eines Rezidivs verstorben und 60% transplantationsassoziiert. Die Gesamt-TRM lag bei 22,4%. Wir teilten transplantationsassoziierte Faktoren in folgende Gruppen ein: Patienten-assoziierte Variablen, Spender-assoziierte, Krankheits-assoziierte, Therapie-assoziierte Variablen und sonstige Variablen. Die logistische Regression zeigte signifikant prognostische Faktoren, die die TRM beeinflussen. Das waren die Klinik (P=0,0045), in der die SZT durchgeführt wurde, das Jahr der SZT (P=0,0457, ab 2001) und der Spendertyp (P=0,0083, kein MSD). Die Diagnose, der Remissionsstatus bei SZT und der TRM-Score waren keine prognostischen Risikofaktoren für die TRM. Bei Anwendung des mTRM-Scores kristallisierte sich dieser als ein Prädiktor für die TRM (P=0,0447) heraus. Ein TRM-Score von I ging mit einer niedrigen TRM-Rate einher. Der mTRM-Score kann aufgrund der Ergebnisse zur Therapieentscheidung herangezogen werden, da er eine Einschätzung der tatsächlichen Überlebenswahrscheinlichkeit für die Patienten möglich macht. Die Klinik als Risikofaktor für die TRM ist nicht alleine durch das Patientenkollektiv und durch die Auswahl des Spendertyps zu erklären. Anhand der 1-Jahres-TRM (23%) von Matthes-Martin et al. errechneten wir die zu erwartende TRM-Rate für unsere Kliniken. Die erwartete TRM wich in Klinik C und Klinik D stark von der beobachteten TRM ab, in Klinik A und Klinik B waren sie annähernd gleich. Ein signifikanter Unterschied bestand nur bei Klinik C mit einem p-Wert von 0,05 bei dem TRM-Score und 0,02 bei dem mTRM-Score. Die Ergebnisse lassen darauf schließen, dass das Outcome der SZT von den Kliniken an sich bzw. deren Therapiemodalitäten beeinflusst wurde.
Im Mittelpunkt der vorliegenden Arbeit stehen das qualitative soziologische Interview und seine Auswertung. Hierzu werde ich die im Zusammenhang mit einem konkreten abgeschlossenen Forschungsprojekt geführten Interviews und deren Interpretation empirisch untersuchen. Die zentrale erkenntnistheoretische Basis besteht in der Vorstellung einer narrativen Konstruktion von Wahrheit sowie der Vorstellung von wissenschaftlicher Geltung im Allgemeinen und der Geltung dieser konkreten Auswertungen im Besonderen. ...
When at the end of Hans Sachs' tragedy of Tristrant, dated February 7th, 1553, the herold takes the floor, he calls to the audience to recognize that this is a tragedy, Auß der wird offentlich erkendt, Wie solche unorndliche lieb Hat so ein starck mechtigen trieb, Wo sie einnimbt ein junges hertz Mit bitter angst, senenden schmertz, Darinn sie also heftig wüt, Verkert hertz, sin, vernunft und gmüt, Wird leichtfertig, verwegen gantz, Schlecht seel, lieb, ehr, gut in die schantz, Acht fürbas weder sitten noch tugent, (184,32-185,3) (1) ....
Nakon kratkoga prikaza geografskoga položaja zagorskoga mjesta Šemnice Gornje u radu se na osnovi vlastitoga terenskog istraživanja i dostupne literature iznose fonološka obilježja govora toga mjesta. Opisuje se naglasni sustav i unutar toga razlike koje se mogu uočiti u odnosu na osnovnu kajkavsku akcentuaciju, te obilježja samoglasničkoga i suglasničkoga sustava.
Ključne riječi: Šemnica Gornja ; govor ; naglasni sustav; samoglasnički i suglasnički sustav
We model the motives for residents of a country to hold foreign assets, including the precautionary motive that has been omitted from much previous literature as intractable. Our model captures many of the principal insights from the existing specialized literature on the precautionary motive, deriving a convenient formula for the economy’s target value of assets. The target is the level of assets that balances impatience, prudence, risk, intertemporal substitution, and the rate of return. We use the model to shed light on two topical questions: The “upstream” flows of capital from developing countries to advanced countries, and the long-run impact of resorbing global financial imbalances
This paper analyzes the risk properties of typical asset-backed securities (ABS), like CDOs or MBS, relying on a model with both macroeconomic and idiosyncratic components. The examined properties include expected loss, loss given default, and macro factor dependencies. Using a two-dimensional loss decomposition as a new metric, the risk properties of individual ABS tranches can directly be compared to those of corporate bonds, within and across rating classes. By applying Monte Carlo Simulation, we find that the risk properties of ABS differ significantly and systematically from those of straight bonds with the same rating. In particular, loss given default, the sensitivities to macroeconomic risk, and model risk differ greatly between instruments. Our findings have implications for understanding the credit crisis and for policy making. On an economic level, our analysis suggests a new explanation for the observed rating inflation in structured finance markets during the pre-crisis period 2004-2007. On a policy level, our findings call for a termination of the 'one-size-fits-all' approach to the rating methodology for fixed income instruments, requiring an own rating methodology for structured finance instruments. JEL Classification: G21, G28
Algorithmic trading engines versus human traders – do they behave different in securities markets?
(2009)
After exchanges and alternative trading venues have introduced electronic execution mechanisms worldwide, the focus of the securities trading industry shifted to the use of fully electronic trading engines by banks, brokers and their institutional customers. These Algorithmic Trading engines enable order submissions without human intervention based on quantitative models applying historical and real-time market data. Although there is a widespread discussion on the pros and cons of Algorithmic Trading and on its impact on market volatility and market quality, little is known on how algorithms actually place their orders in the market and whether and in which respect this differs form other order submissions. Based on a dataset that – for the first time – includes a specific flag to enable the identification of orders submitted by Algorithmic Trading engines, the paper investigates the extent of Algorithmic Trading activity and specifically their order placement strategies in comparison to human traders in the Xetra trading system. It is shown that Algorithmic Trading has become a relevant part of overall market activity and that Algorithmic Trading engines fundamentally differ from human traders in their order submission, modification and deletion behavior as they exploit real-time market data and latest market movements.
We present a tractable model of the effects of nonfinancial risk on intertemporal choice. Our purpose is to provide a simple framework that can be adopted in fields like representative-agent macroeconomics, corporate finance, or political economy, where most modelers have chosen not to incorporate serious nonfinancial risk because available methods were too complex to yield transparent insights. Our model produces an intuitive analytical formula for target assets, and we show how to analyze transition dynamics using a familiar Ramsey-style phase diagram. Despite its starkness, our model captures most of the key implications of nonfinancial risk for intertemporal choice.
The recent financial crisis has led to a vigorous debate about the pros and cons of fair-value accounting (FVA). This debate presents a major challenge for FVA going forward and standard setters’ push to extend FVA into other areas. In this article, we highlight four important issues as an attempt to make sense of the debate. First, much of the controversy results from confusion about what is new and different about FVA. Second, while there are legitimate concerns about marking to market (or pure FVA) in times of financial crisis, it is less clear that these problems apply to FVA as stipulated by the accounting standards, be it IFRS or U.S. GAAP. Third, historical cost accounting (HCA) is unlikely to be the remedy. There are a number of concerns about HCA as well and these problems could be larger than those with FVA. Fourth, although it is difficult to fault the FVA standards per se, implementation issues are a potential concern, especially with respect to litigation. Finally, we identify several avenues for future research. JEL Classification: G14, G15, G30, K22, M41, M42
American households have received a triple dose of bad news since the beginning of the current recession: The greatest collapse in asset values since the Great Depression, a sharp tightening in credit availability, and a large increase in unemployment risk. We present measures of the size of these shocks and discuss what a benchmark theory says about their immediate and ultimate consequences. We then provide a forecast based on a simple empirical model that captures the effects of wealth shocks and unemployment fears. Our short-term forecast calls for somewhat weaker spending, and somewhat higher saving rates, than the Consensus survey of macroeconomic forecasters. Over the longer term, our best guess is that the personal saving rate will eventually approach the levels that preceded period of financial liberalization that began in the late 1970s. Classification: C61, D11, E24