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This paper determines the cost of employee stock options (ESOs) to shareholders. I present a pricing method that seeks to replicate the empirics of exercise and cancellation as good as possible. In a first step, an intensity-based pricing model of El Karoui and Martellini is adapted to the needs of ESOs. In a second step, I calibrate the model with a regression analysis of exercise rates from the empirical work of Heath, Huddart and Lang. The pricing model thus takes account for all effects captured in the regression. Separate regressions enable me to compare options for top executives with those for subordinates. I find no price differences. The model is also applied to test the precision of the fair value accounting method for ESOs, SFAS 123. Using my model as a reference, the SFAS method results in surprisingly accurate prices.
JEL classification: G13; J33; M41; M52
Past research suggests that international real estate markets show return characteristics and interrelationships with other asset classes, which probably qualify them as an interesting component of national and international asset allocation decisions. However, the special characteristics of real estate assets are quite distinct from that of financial assets, such as stocks and bonds. This is also the case for real estate return distributions. Therefore, the proper integration of real estate markets into asset allocation decisions requires profound understanding of real estate returns' distributional characteristics .
Because of the particular characteristics of real estate, representing real estate markets through reliable a time-series is a complex task. Consequently, reliable real estate indices with a sufficiently long history in major international real estate markets are only scarcely available. Most of the research that has been done on real estate returns was done for the U.K. and U.S., where eligible indices exist. On the other hand, in other important real estate markets, such as Germany, either little or no research has been perfoimed.
In this analysis, the methodology of Maurer, Sebastian and Stephan (2000) for indirectly deriving an appraisal-based index for the German commercial real estate market will be applied. This approach is solely based on publicly available data from German open-ended real estate investment trusts. It could also provide a solution to deriving a reliable real estate time-series for other markets.
We will extend previous analyses for the U.K. and U.S. to provide additional fundamental insights into the return characteristics of the German commercial real estate market. Despite univariate considerations, the main focus is the interrelationships between various international real estate markets, as well as between those respective markets and the international stock and bond markets.
The classical approaches to asset allocation give very different conclusions about how much foreign stocks a US investor should hold. US investors should either allocate a large portion of about 40% to foreign stocks (which is the result of mean/variance optimization and the international CAPM) or they should hold no foreign stocks at all (which is the conclusion of the domestic CAPM and mean/variance spanning tests). There is no way in between.
The idea of the Bayesian approach discussed in this article is to shrink the mean/variance efficient portfolio towards the market portfolio. The shrinkage effect is determined by the investor's prior belief in the efficiency of the market portfolio and by the degree of violation of the CAPM in the sample. Interestingly, this Bayesian approach leads to the same implications for asset allocation as the mean-variance/tracking error criterion. In both cases, the optimal portfolio is a combination of the market portfolio and the mean/variance efficient portfolio with the highest Sharpe ratio.
Applying both approaches to the subject of international diversification, we find that a substantial home bias is only justified when a US investor has a strong belief in the global mean/variance efficiency of the US market portfolio and when he has a high regret aversion of falling behind the US market portfolio. We also find that the current level of home bias can be justified whenever-regret aversion is significantly higher than risk aversion.
Finally, we compare the Bayesian approach of shrinking the mean/variance efficient portfolio towards the market portfolio to another Bayesian approach which shrinks the mean/variance efficient portfolio towards the minimum-variance portfolio. An empirical out-of-sample study shows that both Bayesian approaches lead to a clearly superior performance compared to the classical mean/variance efficient portfolio.
This paper studies one of the earliest forms of modern consumer culture—the road book—in relation to one of the early utopias of modern consumption—California. Criticism has traditionally treated the road book as an extension of a loosely defined transcendentalist project, where drivers take to the open road to “discover” themselves in nature. The determinate context, however, is corporate rather than literary-historical. The earliest road books were advertisements. Their itineraries linked up with other spatial technologies (e.g. the conveyor belts in automobile plants and modern highways), transforming space into a vast production and distribution network. Production and distribution intersected in California, the state with the most automobiles per capita and the destination of most early road trips.
The first section of the paper considers the journey to California from the perspective of Emily Post, who would later become a famous writer on etiquette. Post’s book is the narrative equivalent to the standardized roadside architecture, converting local difference into a tourist attraction, and local (especially ethnic) identity into a commodity. The next section considers the effects of commercial homogenization on gender, focusing on the moment when some women, taking the steering wheel, assumed agency as consumers. The primary texts here are some of the early novels of Sinclair Lewis, along with examples of sociology and advertising copy from the 1920s and 1930s. The final section analyzes the WPA Guidebook to California as a federal attempt to re-map corporate space—the space of tourist attractions and consumers—according to a progressive ideal. All three sections treat the tour form as a spatial and literary structure—a privileged topos, at once geographical and symbolic, where complex relations between identity and place are negotiated in the form of a journey.
This paper uses the co-incidence of extreme shocks to banks’ risk to examine within country and across country contagion among large EU banks. Banks’ risk is measured by the first difference of weekly distances to default and abnormal returns. Using Monte Carlo simulations, the paper examines whether the observed frequency of large shocks experienced by two or more banks simultaneously is consistent with the assumption of a multivariate normal or a student t distribution. Further, the paper proposes a simple metric, which is used to identify contagion from one bank to another and identify “systemically important” banks in the EU.
Recent empirical studies on the inflation-growth-relationship underline that inflation has negative growth effects already under relatively modest rates. Most contributions to monetary growth theory, however, have difficulties in explaining such a pattern. It is shown in this paper that this problem can be overcome by establishing a link between monetary instability and the aggregate elasticity of factor substitution. Several microeconomic justifications can be found for a negative influence of inflation on factor substitution. It turns out that already in a simple neoclassical monetary growth model this effect is usually strong enough to question the superneutrality benchmark result in the steady state and to dominate all potential positive effects of inflation along the convergence path. In a more general perspective the paper contributes to a better integration of institutional change in aggregate models of economic growth.
Questions and focus
(2003)
Acquisition of aspect
(2003)
Die vorliegende Arbeit geht unmittelbar vom Konzept der Natürlichen Morphologie aus. Am Datenbereich der dt. Substantivflexion soll die explanative Adäquatheit und Prädiktabilität des Konzepts hinsichtlich des Aufbaus und der Veränderung eines Teilflexionssystems als Ganzes überprüft und auf dieser Basis ein Strukturmodell der dt. Substantivflexion vorgeschlagen werden. Insbesondere bei der Erfassung der Gesamtstruktur des Teilflexionssystems werden dabei Probleme des zugrundegelegten theoretischen Ansatzes deutlich werden. Mit der Diskussion und der Überprüfung theoretischer Annahmen, die diese Probleme lösen können, sowie der detaillierten Analyse des Flexionsverhaltens der dt. Substantive soll ein Beitrag zur weiteren Ausformulierung des in eine allgemeine Präferenztheorie einzuordnenden theoretischen Konzepts der Natürlichen Morphologie wie auch zur germanistischen Forschung geleistet werden.
Most systematic discussion of dyad morphemes has focussed on Australian languages, owing to a combination of their relative prevalence there, and the development of a descriptive tradition that investigates them in some depth. In the course of researching this paper, however, I became aware of functionally and semantically similar morphemes in many other parts of the world, almost invariably described in isolation from any typological reference point. I have incorporated such data as far as I am aware of it, in the hope that a systematic study will encourage other investigators to identify, and investigate in detail, similar constructions in a range of languages. The current state of our research, however, as well as some interesting geographical skewings that I discuss below, such that outside Australia dyad constructions almost exclusively employ reciprocal morphology, means that most of this paper will focus on Australian languages.
Das Wogeo ist eine austronesische Sprache, die von etwa 1500 Menschen auf den Inseln Vokeo […] und Koil […] gesprochen wird. Da es sich beim Wogeo um eine bislang größtenteils unbeschriebene Sprache handelt, sind zum Verständnis der Ausführungen im Hauptteil dieser Arbeit sowie zur allgemeinen Orientierung einige einleitende Erklärungen nötig. Diese sind von unterschiedlicher Art: Zunächst wird die natürliche Umgebung der beiden Inseln, auf denen die Sprache gesprochen wird, kurz dargestellt. Dann werden die für das Verständnis der soziolinguistischen Lage der Sprache relevanten Aspekte beleuchtet. Zur Orientierung folgt ein kurzer Abriß der Position des Wogeo innerhalb der austronesischen Sprachfamilie. Schließlich leitet eine Darstellung des bisherigen Forschungsstandes über das Wogeo zum Hauptteil der Arbeit über.
Betrachtet man als Sprecher oder Sprecherin des Deutschen die mit '-su' derivierten Verben im Aymara und ihre spanischen Übersetzungen, so fällt auf, daß diese Verben häufig eine Entsprechung in einem deutschen Partikelverb mit 'aus-/heraus-' oder 'auf-' haben, und zwar nicht nur dann, wenn sie Bewegungsvorgänge bezeichnen, sondern auch, wenn keine Direktionalität erkennbar ist. [...] Diese Parallele zwischen '-su' und 'aus-' oder 'auf-' ist frappierend, wenn man bedenkt, dass die beiden Sprachen keinerlei genetische Beziehung haben, und die Annahme liegt nahe, daß hier ein ähnliches kognitives Konzept zugrundeliegt. Um dies genauer beurteilen zu können, ist allerdings mehr Information über '-su' im Aymara nötig. So habe ich mir für die vorliegende Arbeit zum Ziel gesetzt, die Semantik von '-su' im Aymara genauer herauszufinden und herauszuarbeiten, welche Funktionen das Suffix hat. Dabei interessierte mich zum einen, ob sich neben den in den Aymara-Grammatiken beschriebenen Funktionen des Morphems, nämlich der Markierung der Richtung 'nach außen' und des kompletiven Aspekts, noch weitere Funktionen herausarbeiten lassen und wie diese mit der Semantik der jeweiligen Verbwurzel interagieren. Daneben widmete ich mich der Fragestellung, worin der Zusammenhang zwischen den verschiedenen Funktionen des Morphems bestehen könnte.
We investigate a restricted one-way cellular automaton (OCA) model where the number of cells is bounded by a constant number k, so-called kC-OCAs. In contrast to the general model, the generative capacity of the restricted model is reduced to the set of regular languages. A kC-OCA can be algorithmically converted to a deterministic finite automaton (DFA). The blow-up in the number of states is bounded by a polynomial of degree k. We can exhibit a family of unary languages which shows that this upper bound is tight in order of magnitude. We then study upper and lower bounds for the trade-off when converting DFAs to kC-OCAs. We show that there are regular languages where the use of kC-OCAs cannot reduce the number of states when compared to DFAs. We then investigate trade-offs between kC-OCAs with different numbers of cells and finally treat the problem of minimizing a given kC-OCA.
The effect of adding two-way communication to k cells one-way cellular automata (kC-OCAs) on their size of description is studied. kC-OCAs are a parallel model for the regular languages that consists of an array of k identical deterministic finite automata (DFAs), called cells, operating in parallel. Each cell gets information from its right neighbor only. In this paper, two models with different amounts of two-way communication are investigated. Both models always achieve quadratic savings when compared to DFAs. When compared to a one-way cellular model, the result is that minimum two-way communication can achieve at most quadratic savings whereas maximum two-way communication may provide savings bounded by a polynomial of degree k.
The descriptional complexity of iterative arrays (lAs) is studied. Iterative arrays are a parallel computational model with a sequential processing of the input. It is shown that lAs when compared to deterministic finite automata or pushdown automata may provide savings in size which are not bounded by any recursive function, so-called non-recursive trade-offs. Additional non-recursive trade-offs are proven to exist between lAs working in linear time and lAs working in real time. Furthermore, the descriptional complexity of lAs is compared with cellular automata (CAs) and non-recursive trade-offs are proven between two restricted classes. Finally, it is shown that many decidability questions for lAs are undecidable and not semidecidable.
Aus Anlass des Fernseh-Sendebeginns in West- und Ostdeutschland vor 50 Jahren fand im Hans-Bredow-Institut in Hamburg am 5. und 6. Dezember 2002 ein Symposion unter dem Titel "Fernsehgeschichte als Zeitgeschichte - Zeitgeschichte als Fernsehgeschichte" statt. In einem kritischen Beitrag untersuchte Peter Zimmermann vor allem die "Feindbildkonstruktionen" des westlichen Fernsehens, die sich nach Aufffassung des Referenten auch bis nach dem Fall der Mauer nachweisen lassen. Zimmermann: "Im freudetrunkenen Monat November des Jahres 1989 schien das deutsche Wintermärchen mit dem Fall der Mauer endlich ein glückliches Ende zu finden. Ganz ungetrübt verlief die Wiedervereinigung der 'deutschen Brüder und Schwestern' allerdings auch in medialer Hinsicht nicht. Mit der sogenannten Abwicklung des DDR-Fernsehens und der DEFA übernahm das Fernsehen der Bundesrepublik auch die ostdeutsche 'Bilderhoheit'. Die in Film und Fernsehen der DDR bislang dominanten positiven Selbstbilder wurden fortan durch die im Westen dominierenden negativen Fremdbilder ersetzt. Es ist daher wenig verwunderlich, dass seit der Wiedervereinigung in den Fernsehdokumentationen zur deutschen Geschichte fast ausnahmslos der westdeutsche Blick dominiert und die Geschichte der DDR marginalisiert, abgewertet oder karikiert wird."
Methoden der Filmauswertung
(2003)