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"Prognosen sind schwierig, besonders, wenn sie die Zukunft betreffen", sagt ein geflügeltes Wort. Die letzte Finanzkrise ist dafür ein gutes Beispiel, denn die wenigsten Analysten und Wirtschaftsweisen haben sie kommen sehen. Da Finanzkrisen glücklicherweise selten sind, ist es allerdings schwierig, Modelle zu entwickeln, die rechtzeitig vor einem Crash warnen.
Die forensische Entomologie nutzt nekrophage Insekten, hauptsächlich Dipteren und ihre juvenilen Stadien, zur Schätzung der minimalen Leichenliegezeit. Dem liegt zugrunde, dass nekrophage Dipteren binnen Minuten nach dem Todeseintritt potentiell in der Lage sind, einen Leichnam zu detektieren und zu besiedeln. Das anschließende Wachstum und die Entwicklung der juvenilen Stadien erfolgt als Funktion von der Art und der Umgebungstemperatur.
Mit Hilfe von Laborstudien konnten bislang für einige forensisch relevante Fliegenarten Entwicklungsdaten erhoben werden, die eine Altersbestimmung der sich an einem Leichnam entwickelnden Larven und Puppen erlauben und so eine Schätzung der minimalen Leichenliegezeit ermöglichen. Als Nährsubstrat für Laborstudien werden tierische Gewebe verwendet. Eine Übertragbarkeit der Daten auf humanes Gewebe wurde aber bislang nicht verifiziert. In der vorliegenden Arbeit wurde das larvale Wachstum und die juvenile Entwicklungsgeschwindigkeit der forensisch relevanten Schmeißfliege Calliphora vicina (Diptera: Calliphoridae) auf humanem Muskelgewebe untersucht und mit dem Wachstum auf Schweineleber, magerem Schweinemuskelfleisch und Schweinehackfleisch verglichen. Die auf humanem Gewebe heranwachsenden Individuen waren mit bis zu 3,5 mm signifikant länger als die Individuen, die sich auf Leber und dem mageren Schweinemuskelfleisch entwickelten. Bei der Verwendung von Hackfleisch vom Schwein zeigte sich kein Unterschied. Darauf basierend wird die Empfehlung ausgesprochen, für zukünftige Entwicklungsstudien Schweinehackfleisch als Ersatz für humanes Gewebe zu verwenden.
Zahlreiche Anleitungen zur Asservierung forensisch-entomologischer Spuren empfehlen das Sammeln getrennt nach Körperregionen eines Leichnams. Dies soll eine mögliche gewebespezifische Entwicklungsrate berücksichtigen. Das für die vorliegende Arbeit durchgeführte systematische Absammeln von Fliegenlarven von 51 Leichnamen getrennt nach Körperregionen zeigte keine artspezifischen Präferenzen für bestimmte Gewebe oder Körperregionen. Das Artenspektrum entsprach größtenteils dem aufgrund von Studien an Schweinekadavern zu erwartendem Artenspektrum für Deutschland und Mitteleuropa. Insgesamt konnten 15 Schmeißfliegenarten nachgewiesen werden, von denen in der Regel mehrere gleichzeitig an einem Leichnam zu finden waren. Dies zeigt, dass ein Faktor wie interspezifische Konkurrenz in Zukunft mehr Beachtung in der Forschung erhalten sollte.
Bislang wurde in der forensischen Entomologie die minimale Leichenliegezeit durch die Untersuchung juveniler Stadien von Fliegen eingegrenzt. Eine eventuell mögliche Ausweitung dieses Zeitfensters könnte durch eine Altersbestimmung der adulten Fliegen oder der leeren Puparien gelingen. Der Nachweis, dass die dafür untersuchten Fliegen bzw. Puparien tatsächlich von dem fraglichen Leichnam stammen, war bislang nicht möglich. Die forensische relevante Schmeißfliege Lucilia sericata wurde in der vorliegenden Arbeit auf humanem Gewebe und Gewebe von elf weiteren Tierarten großgezogen. Durch die Analyse stabiler Kohlen- und Stickstoffisotope konnte ein von diesen elf Tierarten abgrenzbares humanes Isotopenprofil sowohl für die adulten Fliegen von L. sericata, als auch für ihre leeren Puparien detektiert werden. Dieses Profil spiegelte die Nahrungszusammensetzung der Wirte wider.
Die vorliegende Arbeit erhebt Daten zur Entwicklung einer forensisch relevanten Schmeißfliegenart auf humanem Gewebe, belegt das bislang lediglich am tierischen Modell erhobene Schmeißfliegeninventar als für menschliche Leichen relevant und hinterfragt die gewebespezifische Asservierungsempfehlung als ein akademisches Artefakt. Auf dieser Basis konnten Empfehlungen für die Weiterzucht fallrelevanter entomologischer Spuren ausgesprochen werden, die gerichtsverwertbar sind und die Verwendung von tierischem Gewebe oder Tierkadaver in der forensisch-entomologischen Forschung legitimieren. Die Analyse stabiler Isotope legt darüber hinaus einen neuen, innovativen Grundstein für die routinemäßige Spurenzuordnung älterer Entwicklungsstadien und ist damit Vorreiter auf dem Gebiet der forensischen Entomologie.
Background: Most smokers start smoking during their early adolescence, often with the idea that smoking is glamorous. Interventions that harness the broad availability of mobile phones as well as adolescents' interest in their appearance may be a novel way to improve school-based prevention. A recent study conducted in Germany showed promising results. However, the transfer to other cultural contexts, effects on different genders, and implementability remains unknown.
Objective: In this observational study, we aimed to test the perception and implementability of facial-aging apps to prevent smoking in secondary schools in Brazil in accordance with the theory of planned behavior and with respect to different genders.
Methods: We used a free facial-aging mobile phone app ("Smokerface") in three Brazilian secondary schools via a novel method called mirroring. The students’ altered three-dimensional selfies on mobile phones or tablets and images were "mirrored" via a projector in front of their whole grade. Using an anonymous questionnaire, we then measured on a 5-point Likert scale the perceptions of the intervention among 306 Brazilian secondary school students of both genders in the seventh grade (average age 12.97 years). A second questionnaire captured perceptions of medical students who conducted the intervention and its conduction per protocol.
Results: The majority of students perceived the intervention as fun (304/306, 99.3%), claimed the intervention motivated them not to smoke (289/306, 94.4%), and stated that they learned new benefits of not smoking (300/306, 98.0%). Only a minority of students disagreed or fully disagreed that they learned new benefits of nonsmoking (4/306, 1.3%) or that they themselves were motivated not to smoke (5/306, 1.6%). All of the protocol was delivered by volunteer medical students.
Conclusions: Our data indicate the potential for facial-aging interventions to reduce smoking prevalence in Brazilian secondary schools in accordance with the theory of planned behavior. Volunteer medical students enjoyed the intervention and are capable of complete implementation per protocol.
A tale of one exchange and two order books : effects of fragmentation in the absence of competition
(2018)
Exchanges nowadays routinely operate multiple, almost identically structured limit order markets for the same security. We study the effects of such fragmentation on market performance using a dynamic model where agents trade strategically across two identically-organized limit order books. We show that fragmented markets, in equilibrium, offer higher welfare to intermediaries at the expense of investors with intrinsic trading motives, and lower liquidity than consolidated markets. Consistent with our theory, we document improvements in liquidity and lower profits for liquidity providers when Euronext, in 2009, consolidated its order ow for stocks traded across two country-specific and identically-organized order books into a single order book. Our results suggest that competition in market design, not fragmentation, drives previously documented improvements in market quality when new trading venues emerge; in the absence of such competition, market fragmentation is harmful.
In optogenetics, rhodopsins were established as light-driven tools to manipulate neuronal activity. However, during long-term photostimulation using channelrhodopsin (ChR), desensitization can reduce effects. Furthermore, requirement for continuous presence of the chromophore all-trans retinal (ATR) in model systems lacking sufficient endogenous concentrations limits its applicability. We tested known, and engineered and characterized new variants of de- and hyperpolarizing rhodopsins in Caenorhabditis elegans. ChR2 variants combined previously described point mutations that may synergize to enable prolonged stimulation. Following brief light pulses ChR2(C128S;H134R) induced muscle activation for minutes or even for hours (‘Quint’: ChR2(C128S;L132C;H134R;D156A;T159C)), thus featuring longer open state lifetime than previously described variants. Furthermore, stability after ATR removal was increased compared to the step-function opsin ChR2(C128S). The double mutants C128S;H134R and H134R;D156C enabled increased effects during repetitive stimulation. We also tested new hyperpolarizers (ACR1, ACR2, ACR1(C102A), ZipACR). Particularly ACR1 and ACR2 showed strong effects in behavioral assays and very large currents with fast kinetics. In sum, we introduce highly light-sensitive optogenetic tools, bypassing previous shortcomings, and thus constituting new tools that feature high effectiveness and fast kinetics, allowing better repetitive stimulation or investigating prolonged neuronal activity states in C. elegans and, possibly, other systems.
Luftmenschen
(2018)
Wörter können zweifach bewegt werden: wie Erbschaften in der Zeit und wie Güter im Raum. Sie gedeihen nicht nur in ihrer eigenen Sprache, sondern auch in anderen, vor allem dann, wenn dort im Mündlichen oder in der Schriftsprache eine Art Bezeichnungs-"Vakuum" besteht: Wo immer sie dringend benötigt werden, dort haben sie potentiell auch Platz. Die Bewegung selbst erfolgt zuerst mit den Sprechern, und mit diesen bleiben Worte auch im Gebrauch lebendig; gehen sie dann in die Umgangs- oder sogar Hochsprache ein, weitet sich ihr linguistischer Einfluss aus, sie werden beständiger, erscheinen fest verknüpft mit ihrer neuen Umgebung. Mitunter ist dann ihre Herkunft im Rückblick nicht mehr so ohne weiteres zu eruieren. Trotzdem bleiben solche Begriffe Indikatoren für ein Milieu, das zu einer anderen Zeit an einem anderen Ort bestand und das ihnen ihre erste Ursprünglichkeit eingeschrieben hat. Die deutschen Lehnwörter im Hebräischen sind hierfür ein gutes Beispiel.
Considering the circumstance that literature dealing with the economic performance of agri-food businesses in general, or particularly with the German agricultural sector, mainly deals with strictly agricultural-related theory in order to explain the economic success of agri-food businesses, the present paper aims to extend existing discourses to further areas of thought. Consequently, the characteristics: a) increased size of agribusiness, b) pull-strategies, c) the development of new markets and d) focus on the processing industry, that all correspond to the current picture of the German agricultural sector and are considered to be significantly responsible for recently managing to outpace the French agri-food sector, will be first explained in their success against the background of mainly non-agricultural-related literature. By doing so helpful and rather unnoted perspectives can be contributed to existing discourses. Second, the paper presents scatter plots which portray correlations between a) the added value of agriculture and the regular labor force, b) the added value of agriculture and the number of agricultural holdings and c) the added value of agriculture and the number of enterprises concerning milk consumption. Corresponding scatter plots which show different developments in Germany and France can be related to the findings of the first part of the paper and allow new perspectives in existing discourses as well.
In this paper a study concerning the situation of the islamic headscarf in Germany is presented. This study relies on an analysis of the information from the mass media and from the laws issued after the debates related to this subject.
Der Band untersucht die Ursachen, Ausprägungen und Reaktionen auf die Entstehung bzw. Erstarkung populistischer Parteien und Bewegungen in Deutschland und Ostmitteleuropa.
Inhaltsverzeichnis:
Arthur Benz: Populismus als Herausforderung für Wissenschaft und Praxis - Einleitung
Dirk Jörke: Populismus – Ursachen und falsche Antworten
Michael Edinger: Mobilisierung gegen das Establishment. Zu einem Wesensmerkmal populistischer Strömungen
Claudia Landwehr und Nils D. Steiner: Populismus – eine Nachfrageperspektive
Joachim Klose: Ein Land, zwei Perspektiven? Zum Populismusin Ost- und Westdeutschland
Petra Guasti und Lenka Buštíková: Populismus in Ostmitteleuropa und der Verzicht auf Politik
Previous research on scalar implicature has primarily relied on metalinguistic judgment tasks and found varying rates of such inferences depending on the nature of the task and contextual manipulations. This paper introduces a novel interactive paradigm involving both a production and a comprehension component, thereby fixing a precise conversational context.
The main research question is what is reliably communicated by some in this communicative setting, when the quantifier occurs in unembedded positions as well as embedded positions. Our new paradigm involves an action-based task from which participants’ interpretation of utterances can be inferred. It incorporates a game–theoretic design, including a precise model to predict participants’ behaviour in the experimental context.
Our study shows that embedded and unembedded implicatures are reliably communicated by some. We propose two cognitive principles which describe what can be left unsaid. In our experimental context, a production strategy based on these principles is more efficient (with equal communicative success and shorter utterances) than a strategy based on literal descriptions.
In recent years, experimental research has demontrated great variability in the rates of scalar inferences across different triggering expressions (Doran et al. 2009, 2012, van Tiel et al. 2016). These studies have been taken as evidence against the so-called uniformity assumption, which posits that scalar implicature is triggered by a single mechanism and that the behaviour of one scale should generalize to the whole family of scales. In the following, we present an experimental study that tests negative strengthening for a variety of strong scalar terms, following up on van Tiel et al. (2016). For example, we tested whether the statement John is not brilliant is strengthened to mean that John is not intelligent (see especially Horn 1989). We show that endorsement rates of the scalar implicature (e.g., John is intelligent but not brilliant) are anti-correlated with endorsements of negative strengthening. Further, we demonstrate that a modified version of the uniformity hypothesis taking into account negative strengthening is consistent with van Tiel et al.’s data. Therefore, variation across scales may be more systematic than suggested by the van Tiel et al. study.
"Sozialwissenschaftlich aufschlussreich sind für mich nicht Zustände, sondern Verläufe – oder Zustände nur im Zusammenhang von Verläufen. Theorien, die Strukturen oder Ereignisse als freistehende Unikate in einem feststehenden Ereignis- und Möglichkeitsraum behandeln, können fundamental in die Irre führen. Alles Soziale spielt sich in der Zeit ab, entfaltet sich mit der Zeit und wird in und mit ihr sich selber ähnlicher. Was wir heute sehen, können wir nur verstehen, wenn wir wissen, wie es gestern ausgesehen hat und auf welchem Weg es sich befindet. Alles, was vorfindlich ist, ist immer auf einem Entwicklungspfad unterwegs. Auf diesen kommt es entscheidend an." ...
Background: The present study aims to elucidate the state of gender equality in high-quality research by analyzing the representation of female authorships in the last decade (from 2008 to 2016).
Methods: Based on the Gendermetrics platform, 293,557 research articles from 54 journals listed in the Nature Index were considered covering the categories Life Science, Multidisciplinary, Earth & Environmental and Chemistry. The core method was the combined analysis of the proportion of female authorships and the female-to-male odds ratio for first, co- and last authorships. The distribution of prestigious authorships was measured by the Prestige Index.
Results: 29.8% of all authorships and 33.1% of the first, 31.8% of the co- and 18.1% of the last authorships were held by women. The corresponding female-to-male odds ratio is 1.19 (CI: 1.18–1.20) for first, 1.35 (CI: 1.34–1.36) for co- and 0.47 (CI: 0.46–0.48) for last authorships. Women are underrepresented at prestigious authorships compared to men (Prestige Index = -0.42). The underrepresentation accentuates in highly competitive articles attracting the highest citation rates, namely, articles with many authors and articles that were published in highest-impact journals. More specifically, a large negative correlation between the 5-Year-Impact-Factor of a journal and the female representation at prestigious authorships was revealed (r(52) = -.63, P < .001). Women publish fewer articles compared to men (39.0% female authors are responsible for 29.8% of all authorships) and are underrepresented at productivity levels of more than 2 articles per author. Articles with female key authors are less frequently cited than articles with male key authors. The gender-specific differences in citation rates increase the more authors contribute to an article. Distinct differences at the journal, journal category, continent and country level were revealed. The prognosis for the next decades forecast a very slow harmonization of authorships odds between the two genders.
Objective: The present study aims to elucidate the state of gender equality in high-quality dermatological research by analysing the representation of female authorships from January 2008 to May 2017.
Design: Retrospective, descriptive study.
Setting: 113 189 male and female authorships from 23 373 research articles published in 23 dermatological Q1 journals were analysed with the aid of the Gendermetrics Platform.
Results: 43.0% of all authorships and 50.2% of the firstauthorships, 43.7% of the coauthorships and 33.1% of the last authorships are held by women. The corresponding female-to-male ORs are 1.41 (95% CI 1.37 to 1.45) for first authorships, 1.07 (95% CI 1.04 to 1.10) for coauthorships and 0.60 (95% CI 0.58 to 0.62) for last authorships. The annual growth rates are 1.74% overall and 1.45% for first authorships, 1.53% for coauthorships and 2.97% for last authorships. Women are slightly under-represented at prestigious authorships compared with men (Prestige Index=−0.11). The under-representation remains stable in highly competitive articles attracting the highest citation rates, namely, articles with many authors and articles that were published in highest-impact journals. Multiauthor articles with male key authors are only slightly more frequently cited than those with female key authors. Women publish slightly fewer papers compared with men (47.2% women hold 43.0% of the authorships). At the level of individual journals, there is a high degree of uniformity in gender-specific authorship odds. By contrast, distinct differences at country level were revealed. The prognosis for the next decades forecasts a consecutive harmonisation of authorship odds between the two genders.
Conclusions: In high-quality dermatological research, the integration of female scholars is advanced as compared with other medical disciplines. A gender gap consists mainly in the form of a career dichotomy, with many female early career researchers and few women in academic leadership positions. However, this gender gap has been narrowed in the last decade and will likely be further reduced in the future.
Subduction zone magmas are more oxidised on eruption than those at mid-ocean ridges. This is attributed either to oxidising components, derived from subducted lithosphere (slab) and added to the mantle wedge, or to oxidation processes occurring during magma ascent via differentiation. Here we provide direct evidence for contributions of oxidising slab agents to melts trapped in the sub-arc mantle. Measurements of sulfur (S) valence state in sub-arc mantle peridotites identify sulfate, both as crystalline anhydrite (CaSO4) and dissolved SO42− in spinel-hosted glass (formerly melt) inclusions. Copper-rich sulfide precipitates in the inclusions and increased Fe3+/∑Fe in spinel record a S6+–Fe2+ redox coupling during melt percolation through the sub-arc mantle. Sulfate-rich glass inclusions exhibit high U/Th, Pb/Ce, Sr/Nd and δ34S (+ 7 to + 11‰), indicating the involvement of dehydration products of serpentinised slab rocks in their parental melt sources. These observations provide a link between liberated slab components and oxidised arc magmas.