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The Great Recession confirmed a bedrock principle of modern consumption theory: It is impossible to explain aggregate spending behavior without knowledge of the underlying microeconomic distribution of circumstances and choices across households. National accounting frameworks therefore need to be augmented by “bottom up” measures that both (a) capture the microeconomic heterogeneity (in expenditures, income, assets, debt, and beliefs) in the population and (b) sum up to statistics that have a recognizable relationship to the aggregate totals that are already reasonably well measured.
Background: The most common spinocerebellar ataxias (SCA)—SCA1, SCA2, SCA3, and SCA6—are caused by (CAG)n repeat expansion. While the number of repeats of the coding (CAG)n expansions is correlated with the age at onset, there are no appropriate models that include both affected and preclinical carriers allowing for the prediction of age at onset.
Methods: We combined data from two major European cohorts of SCA1, SCA2, SCA3, and SCA6 mutation carriers: 1187 affected individuals from the EUROSCA registry and 123 preclinical individuals from the RISCA cohort. For each SCA genotype, a regression model was fitted using a log-normal distribution for age at onset with the repeat length of the alleles as covariates. From these models, we calculated expected age at onset from birth and conditionally that this age is greater than the current age.
Results: For SCA2 and SCA3 genotypes, the expanded allele was a significant predictor of age at onset (−0.105±0.005 and −0.056±0.003) while for SCA1 and SCA6 genotypes both the size of the expanded and normal alleles were significant (expanded: −0.049±0.002 and −0.090±0.009, respectively; normal: +0.013±0.005 and −0.029±0.010, respectively). According to the model, we indicated the median values (90% critical region) and the expectancy (SD) of the predicted age at onset for each SCA genotype according to the CAG repeat size and current age.
Conclusions: These estimations can be valuable in clinical and research. However, results need to be confirmed in other independent cohorts and in future longitudinal studies.
The historical account of Aztec Emperor Auitztol's introduction of the great-tailed grackle Quiscalus mexicanus into the Valley of Mexico (1486–1502) is significant because it documents human translocation of wild birds in Mexico over 500 years ago, before the Spanish Conquest of that land. In the present paper, which defends the account from writings that dispute it, I first review the evidence of how the account was obtained and show that its many details are consistent with what is known from other sources about both the great-tailed grackle and the Aztecs (Nahuas). I then review and examine all published criticisms of the account and explain in detail why they are wrong. The critics have to date presented no persuasive evidence to support their speculation that the Aztecs confused, or might have confused, a natural invasion for an introduction. In contrast to these critics, Bernardino de Sahagún’s research group in the 1500s presented a highly credible, peer-reviewed historical account that documented Aztec introduction of the great-tailed grackle. The pioneering work of these Renaissance Mexican scholars continues to stand as one of the most important records of invasive alien species introduction in ancient times.
The mature palm forest of the Vallée de Mai, a UNESCO World Heritage Site, on the Seychelles island of Praslin, is a unique ecosystem containing many endemic species, including the iconic coco de mer palm Lodoicea maldivica. In 2009, the invasive yellow crazy ant Anoplolepis gracilipes was recorded for the first time within the palm forest, raising concern about its potential impacts on the endemic fauna. This research aimed to: (1) assess the current distribution and spread of A. gracilipes within the palm forest; (2) identify environmental variables that are linked to A. gracilipes distribution; and (3) compare endemic species richness and abundance in A. gracilipes invaded and uninvaded areas. Anoplolepis gracilipes was confined to the north-east of the site and remained almost stationary between April 2010 and December 2012, with isolated outbreaks into the forest. Infested areas had significantly higher temperature and humidity and lower canopy cover. Abundance and species richness of the endemic arboreal fauna were lower in the A. gracilipes invaded area. Molluscs were absent from the invaded area. The current restricted distribution of A. gracilipes in this ecosystem, combined with lower abundance of endemic fauna in the invaded area, highlight the need for further research to assess control measures and the possible role of biotic resistance to the invasion of the palm forest by A. gracilipes.
In the last few decades, the abundance and importance of invasive alien species have grown continuously due to the undiminished growth of global trade. In most cases, arthropod introductions were unintended and occurred as hitchhikers or contaminants. Alien arthropods can have significant environmental impacts and can be economically costly. To measure these impacts, we expand a generic impact scoring system initially developed for mammals and birds, and applied it to terrestrial arthropods. It consists of six environmental impact categories and six economic impact categories, each with five impact levels. Information on impact was derived from an intensive analysis of published scientific literature. The scoring of the 77 most widely distributed arthropod species alien to Europe revealed the mite Varroa destructor as the most harmful species, followed by the Chinese longhorn beetle Anoplophora chinensis and the Argentine ant Linepithema humile. The highest environmental impact is through herbivory, disease transmission, and ecosystem impacts. The highest economic impact is on agriculture and human infrastructure and administration. The generic impact scoring system allows the impact scores of vertebrates and arthropods to be compared, thus serving as a background for the decision making processes of policy makers and stakeholders.
Invasions by non-native species are a threat to biodiversity because invaders can impact native populations, communities and entire ecosystems. To manage this threat, it is necessary to have a strong mechanistic understanding of how non-native species affect local species and communities. We reviewed 259 published papers (1972–2012) that described field experiments quantifying the impact of aquatic nonnative species, to examine whether various types of study biases are limiting this understanding. Our review revealed that invasion impacts had been experimentally quantified for 101 aquatic non-native species, in all major freshwater and marine habitats, on all continents except Antarctica and for most higher taxonomic groupings. Over one-quarter (26%) of studies included tests for impacts on local biodiversity. However, despite this extensive research effort, certain taxa, habitats and regions remain poorly studied. For example, of the over one hundred species examined in previous studies, only one was a marine fish and only six were herbivores. Furthermore, over half (53%) of the studies were from the USA and two-thirds (66%) were from experiments conducted in temperate latitudes. By contrast, only 3% of studies were from Africa and <2% from high latitudes. We also found that one-fifth (20%) of studies were conducted in estuaries, but only 1% from coral reefs. Finally, we note that the standard procedure of pooling or not reporting non-significant treatments and responses is likely to limit future synthetic advancement by biasing meta-analysis and severely limiting our ability to identify non-native species with none or negligible ecological impacts. In conclusion, a future focus on poorly-studied taxa, habitats and regions, and enhanced reporting of results, should improve our understanding and management of impacts associated with aquatic non-native species.
To understand what makes some species successful invaders, it is critical to quantify performance differences between native and introduced regions, and among populations occupying a broad range of environmental conditions within each region. However, these data are not available even for the world’s most notorious invasive species. Here we introduce the Global Garlic Mustard Field Survey, a coordinated distributed field survey to collect performance data and germplasm from a single invasive species: garlic mustard (Alliaria petiolata) across its entire distribution using minimal resources. We chose this species for its ecological impacts, prominence in ecological studies of invasion success, simple life history, and several genetic and life history attributes that make it amenable to experimental study. We developed a standardised field survey protocol to estimate population size (area) and density, age structure, plant size and fecundity, as well as damage by herbivores and pathogens in each population, and to collect representative seed samples. Across four years and with contributions from 164 academic and non-academic participants from 16 countries in North America and Europe thus far, we have collected 45,788 measurements and counts of 137,811 plants from 383 populations and seeds from over 5,000 plants. All field data and seed resources will be curated for release to the scientific community. Our goal is to establish A. petiolata as a model species for plant invasion biology and to encourage large collaborative studies of other invasive species.
The cattle egret (Bubulcus ibis) has recently colonized Brazil. This process offers an excellent opportunity for the study of colonization and dispersal patterns across extensive areas by non-native birds. The aims of the present investigation were a) to determine the genetic diversity of the cattle egret in Brazil and Africa, b) evaluate genetic differentiation between populations in different regions of Brazil and Africa, and c) detect genetic signs of demographic expansion in these two areas. Mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) Control Region (CR) sequences were obtained from 112 cattle egrets in four Brazilian and four African (Kenya, Ghana and Nigeria) populations. Genetic diversity (H, h, θ) and population structure (AMOVA, Fst) were assessed and the populations were tested for signs of recent demographic expansion. A total of 35 haplotypes were found: 22 exclusive to Africa, 10 exclusive to Brazil and three shared by both samples. The degree of genetic diversity, determined by mtDNA analysis, was similar between Brazil and Africa, demonstrating that the successful colonization of the non-native area occurred with no significant loss of diversity. The pairwise Fst values among the Brazilian and African populations were all significantly different. The population in southern Brazilian exhibited the lowest degree of differentiation with respect to the African population, followed by the southeastern and northeastern populations of the country. The genetic differentiation data suggest that the colonization of Brazil by the cattle egret began in the southern region and expanded to the southeastern and northeastern regions of the country. This genetic differentiation pattern is in accordance with the higher number of cattle per grazing area in southern Brazil, which may have favored the onset of the successful establishment of the species. The findings indicate that mtDNA genetic diversity was retained during the colonization process and colonization began in the southern region of the country. Moreover, signs of demographic expansion were detected in the African sample.
Wrack burial reduces germination and establishment of the invasive cordgrass Spartina densiflora
(2014)
Germination and emergence of halophytes may decrease significantly by seed burial in dead plant material, or wrack, which is common and abundant in tidal marshes. The effects of plant debris (wrack) burial on seed germination and seedling establishment of Spartina densiflora, an invasive cordgrass, were studied under greenhouse conditions and compared with field observations. Five wrack burial depths were applied: control without wrack, 1 cm (1235 ± 92 g DW wrack m-2), 2 cm (3266 ± 13 g DW m-2), 4 cm (4213 ± 277 g DW m-2), and 8 cm (6138 ± 227 g DW m-2). Sediment pH, electrical conductivity, redox potential and temperature were recorded. Quiescence increased with wrack load up to ~20% at 8 cm deep. Germination decreased with wrack load from 96% to 14%, which could be related with anoxic conditions under the debris since sediment redox potential was as low as -83 ± 7 mV at 8 cm. Germination percentage increased and quiescent and dormant percentages decreased at higher daily sediment temperatures and with higher daily temperature fluctuations, conditions that were recorded without or under low loads of wrack. Spartina densiflora did not show primary dormancy, but its seeds entered into a non-deep physiological dormancy below 1 cm deep in plant debris. The establishment of S. densiflora seedlings was also greatly reduced by wrack burial since only 6 seedlings (11 ± 5 % of germinated seeds) emerged above plant debris from 1 cm and all seedlings died from deeper than 1 cm. S. densiflora seedling development was also reduced by wrack burial. The inverse relationship between germination and emergence of S. densiflora with wrack burial recorded in our study is useful to predict its invasion dynamics and to plan the management of invaded marshes.
Halting biological invasions in Europe : from data to decisions ; a message from NEOBIOTA 2012
(2014)
The NEOBIOTA conferences initiated by the European Group on Biological Invasions represents a forum for exchange of ideas and discussion of topics related to biological invasions as well as an interface between science, application and policies (Kowarik and Starfinger 2009). The 7th NEOBIOTA conference (http://neobiota2012.blogspot.com.es/), held in Pontevedra (Spain) from 12–14 September 2012, brought together 288 participants (ecologists, conservationists, representatives of governmental agencies and stake-holders), from 24 European countries and 9 non-European ones (namely, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, Colombia, New Zealand, South Africa, United States and Venezuela).
The success of invasive species has been explained by two contrasting but non-exclusive views: (i) intrinsic factors make some species inherently good invaders; (ii) species become invasive as a result of extrinsic ecological and genetic influences such as release from natural enemies, hybridization or other novel ecological and evolutionary interactions. These viewpoints are rarely distinguished but hinge on distinct mechanisms leading to different management scenarios. To improve tests of these hypotheses of invasion success we introduce a simple mathematical framework to quantify the invasiveness of species along two axes: (i) interspecific differences in performance among native and introduced species within a region, and (ii) intraspecific differences between populations of a species in its native and introduced ranges. Applying these equations to a sample dataset of occurrences of 1,416 plant species across Europe, Argentina, and South Africa, we found that many species are common in their native range but become rare following introduction; only a few introduced species become more common. Biogeographical factors limiting spread (e.g. biotic resistance, time of invasion) therefore appear more common than those promoting invasion (e.g. enemy release). Invasiveness, as measured by occurrence data, is better explained by inter-specific variation in invasion potential than biogeographical changes in performance. We discuss how applying these comparisons to more detailed performance data would improve hypothesis testing in invasion biology and potentially lead to more efficient management strategies.
Saccharum spontaneum L. is an invasive grass that has spread extensively in disturbed areas throughout the Panama Canal watershed (PCW), where it has created a fire hazard and inhibited reforestation efforts. Currently physical removal of aboveground biomass is the primary means of controlling this weed, which is largely ineffective and does little to inhibit spread of the species. Little is known about reproduction of this species, although it is both rhizomatous and produces abundant seed. Here we report a series of studies looking at some of the basic reproductive mechanisms and strategies utilised by S. spontaneum to provide information to support development of better targeted management strategies. We found that seed produced between September and November was germinable both in the lab and in situ. Genetic diversity of mature stands was assessed using microsatellite markers and found to be high, even at small scales. Studies of vegetative reproduction showed that buds on stems that had been dried for up to six weeks were still capable of sprouting. Separate experiments showed that stem fragments could sprout when left on the surface or buried shallowly and that larger pieces sprouted more readily than smaller pieces. Collectively these results demonstrate that S. spontaneum in the PCW has the capability to produce many propagules that can successfully recruit and it is likely that seed dispersal drives the spread of the species. Timing of management actions to reduce flowering would significantly reduce the seed load into the environment and help to prevent spread to new sites. Similarly, where biomass is cut, cutting stems into smaller pieces will allow the stems to dry out and reduce the ability of buds to sprout. Additionally, attention should be paid to prevent accidental transport to new sites on machinery.
Smut fungi are well-suited to investigate the ecology and evolution of plant pathogens, as they are strictly biotrophic, yet cultivable on media. Here we report the genome sequence of Melanopsichium pennsylvanicum, closely related to Ustilago maydis and other Poaceae-infecting smuts, but parasitic to a dicot plant. To explore the evolutionary patterns resulting from host adaptation after this huge host jump, the genome of M. pennsylvanicum was sequenced and compared to the genomes of Ustilago maydis, Sporisorium reilianum, and Ustilago hordei. While all four genomes had a similar completeness in CEGMA analyses, gene absence was highest in M. pennsylvanicum, and most pronounced in putative secreted proteins, which are often considered as effector candidates. In contrast, the amount of private genes was similar among the species, highlighting that gene loss rather than gene gain is the hallmark of adaptation after the host jump to the dicot host. Our analyses revealed a trend of putative effectors to be next to another putative effector, but the majority of these are not in clusters and thus the focus on pathogenicity clusters might not be appropriate for all smut genomes. Positive selection studies revealed that M. pennsylvanicum has the highest number and proportion of genes under positive selection. In general, putative effectors showed a higher proportion of positively selected genes than non-effector candidates. The 248 putative secreted effectors found in all four smut genomes might constitute a core set needed for pathogenicity, while those 92 that are found in all grass-parasitic smuts, but have no ortholog in M. pennsylvanicum might constitute a set of effectors important for successful colonization of grass hosts.
Obesity and associated lifestyle in a large sample of multi-morbid German primary care attendees
(2014)
Background: Obesity and the accompanying increased morbidity and mortality risk is highly prevalent among older adults. As obese elderly might benefit from intentional weight reduction, it is necessary to determine associated and potentially modifiable factors on senior obesity. This cross-sectional study focuses on multi-morbid patients which make up the majority in primary care. It reports on the prevalence of senior obesity and its associations with lifestyle behaviors.
Methods: A total of 3,189 non-demented, multi-morbid participants aged 65–85 years were recruited in primary care within the German MultiCare-study. Physical activity, smoking, alcohol consumption and quantity and quality of nutritional intake were classified as relevant lifestyle factors. Body Mass Index (BMI, general obesity) and waist circumference (WC, abdominal obesity) were used as outcome measures and regression analyses were conducted.
Results: About one third of all patients were classified as obese according to BMI. The prevalence of abdominal obesity was 73.5%. Adjusted for socio-demographic variables and objective and subjective disease burden, participants with low physical activity had a 1.6 kg/m2 higher BMI as well as a higher WC (4.9 cm, p<0.001). Current smoking and high alcohol consumption were associated with a lower BMI and WC. In multivariate logistic regression, using elevated WC and BMI as categorical outcomes, the same pattern in lifestyle factors was observed. Only for WC, not current but former smoking was associated with a higher probability for elevated WC. Dietary intake in quantity and quality was not associated with BMI or WC in either model.
Conclusions: Further research is needed to clarify if the huge prevalence discrepancy between BMI and WC also reflects a difference in obesity-related morbidity and mortality. Yet, age-specific thresholds for the BMI are needed likewise. Encouraging and promoting physical activity in older adults might a starting point for weight reduction efforts.
Introduction: Multimorbidity is a major concern in primary care. Nevertheless, evidence of prevalence and patterns of multimorbidity, and their determinants, are scarce. The aim of this study is to systematically review studies of the prevalence, patterns and determinants of multimorbidity in primary care.
Methods: Systematic review of literature published between 1961 and 2013 and indexed in Ovid (CINAHL, PsychINFO, Medline and Embase) and Web of Knowledge. Studies were selected according to eligibility criteria of addressing prevalence, determinants, and patterns of multimorbidity and using a pretested proforma in primary care. The quality and risk of bias were assessed using STROBE criteria. Two researchers assessed the eligibility of studies for inclusion (Kappa = 0.86).
Results: We identified 39 eligible publications describing studies that included a total of 70,057,611 patients in 12 countries. The number of health conditions analysed per study ranged from 5 to 335, with multimorbidity prevalence ranging from 12.9% to 95.1%. All studies observed a significant positive association between multimorbidity and age (odds ratio [OR], 1.26 to 227.46), and lower socioeconomic status (OR, 1.20 to 1.91). Positive associations with female gender and mental disorders were also observed. The most frequent patterns of multimorbidity included osteoarthritis together with cardiovascular and/or metabolic conditions.
Conclusions: Well-established determinants of multimorbidity include age, lower socioeconomic status and gender. The most prevalent conditions shape the patterns of multimorbidity. However, the limitations of the current evidence base means that further and better designed studies are needed to inform policy, research and clinical practice, with the goal of improving health-related quality of life for patients with multimorbidity. Standardization of the definition and assessment of multimorbidity is essential in order to better understand this phenomenon, and is a necessary immediate step.
HIV vaccine preclinical testing is difficult because HIV’s only relevant hosts are humans and no correlates of protection are known. To this end, we are working on the humanization of different mouse strains with human peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) as well as human hematopoietic stem cells (HSC) to generate a useful small animal model.
We generated immune deficient mice (NOD Scid IL2gc -/- /NOD Rag1-/- IL2gc -/-) expressing human MHC class II (HLA-DQ8) on a mouse class II deficient background (Ab-/-). Here, the human HLA-DQ8 should interact with the matching T cell receptors of transferred matching human PBMCs and therefore could support the functionality of the transferred human CD4+ cells in the mice.
Mice that were adoptively transferred with human HLA-DQ8 PBMCs only showed engraftment of CD3+ T cells. Surprisingly, the presence of HLA class II did not significantly change the repopulation rates in the mice. Also, the presence of HLA class II did not advance B cell engraftment, such that humoral immune responses were undetectable. However, the overall survival of DQ8-expressing mice was significantly prolonged, compared to mice expressing mouse MHC class II molecules, and correlated with an increased time span until onset of GvHD.
To avoid GVHD and to increase and maintain the level of human cell reconstitution over a long period of time, the same mouse strains were reconstituted with human HSC. Compared to PBMC-repopulated mice, HSC-reconstituted mice develop almost all subpopulations of the human immune system detectable at week 12 after HSC transfer. These mice developed adaptive immune responses after Tetanus Toxoide (TT) immunizations. In addition, we are testing the susceptibility of these humanized mice to different HIV strains with a detailed look at immune responses.
We develop a methodology to identify and rank “systemically important financial institutions” (SIFIs). Our approach is consistent with that followed by the Financial Stability Board (FSB) but, unlike the latter, it is free of judgment and it is based entirely on publicly available data, thus filling the gap between the official views of the regulator and those that market participants can form with their own information set. We apply the methodology to annual data on three samples of banks (global, EU and euro area) for the years 2007-2012. We examine the evolution of the SIFIs over time and document the shifs in the relative weights of the major geographic areas. We also discuss the implication of the 2013 update of the identification methodology proposed by the FSB.
We examine the effects of credit default swaps (CDS), a major type of over-the-counter derivative, on the corporate liquidity management of the reference firms. CDS help firms to access the credit market since the lenders can hedge their credit risk more easily using these contracts. However, CDS-protected creditors can be tougher in debt renegotiations and less willing to support distressed borrowers, causing some firms to become more cautious. Consequently, we find that firms hold significantly more cash after the inception of CDS trading on their debt. The increase in cash holdings by CDS firms is more pronounced for financially constrained firms and firms facing higher refinancing risk. Moreover, bank relationships and outstanding credit facilities intensify the CDS effect on cash holding. Finally, firms with greater financial expertise hold more cash when their debt is referenced by CDS. These findings suggest that CDS, which are primarily a risk management tool for lenders, induce firms to adopt more conservative liquidity policies.
We use a unique data set from the Trade Reporting and Compliance Engine (TRACE) to study liquidity effects in the US structured product market. Our main contribution is the analysis of the relation between the accuracy in measuring liquidity and the potential degree of disclosure. Having access to all relevant trading information, we provide evidence that transaction cost measures that use dealer specific information such as trader identity and trade direction can be efficiently proxied by measures that use less detailed information. This finding is important for all market participants in the context of OTC markets, as it fosters our understanding of the information contained in transaction data. Thus, our results provide guidance for improving transparency while maintaining trader confidentiality. In addition, we analyze liquidity in the structured product market in general and show that securities that are mainly institutionally traded, guaranteed by a federal authority, or have low credit risk, tend to be more liquid.
Gene transfer vectors such as lentiviral vectors offer versatile possibilities to express transgenic antigens for vaccination purposes. However, viral vaccines leading to broad transduction and transgene expression in vivo, are undesirable. Therefore, strategies capable of directing gene transfer only to professional antigen-presenting cells would increase the specific activity and safety of genetic vaccines. A lentiviral vector pseudotype specific for murine major histocompatibilty complex class II (LV-MHCII) was recently developed and the present study aims to characterize the in vivo biodistribution profile and immunization potential of this vector in mice. Whereas the systemic administration of a vector pseudotyped with a ubiquitously-interacting envelope led to prominent detection of vector copies in the liver of animals, the injection of an equivalent amount of LV-MHCII resulted in a more specific biodistribution of vector and transgene. Copies of LV-MHCII were found only in secondary lymphoid organs, essentially in CD11c+ dendritic cells expressing the transgene whereas B cells were not efficiently targeted in vivo, contrary to expectations based on in vitro testing. Upon a single injection of LV-MHCII, naive mice mounted specific effector CD4 and CD8 T cell responses against the intracelllular transgene product with the generation of Th1 cytokines, development of in vivo cytotoxic activity and establishment of T cell immune memory. The targeting of dendritic cells by recombinant viral vaccines must therefore be assessed in vivo but this strategy is feasible, effective for immunization and cross-presentation and constitutes a potentially safe alternative to limit off-target gene expression in gene-based vaccination strategies with integrative vectors.